Will Apple get rid of the touchbar with the arrival of ARM Macbooks?

[senttoschool]

Users want multi-purpose future-proof modern connectors, not deprecated ones.

No, that's what Apple wants. I want USBC ports, USBA ports, and HDMI ports. I want a laptop that can power any external display without a dock. And I also want a multi-purpose future proof modern connector, but it's not the only thing I want.

Keep in mind that when this generation of the Macbook Pro came out in 2016, 99.99% of all devices out there did not use USBC. Dongle hell was real. Even today, most devices are not USBC by default. I just bought a new Logitech mouse and it's only USBA.

We don't live in a dreamland where everything is USBC. Apple's latest iPhone 11 comes with a USBA cable.

 

[wegster]

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A side of the MacBook Pro 16" is 6mm high. A USB-A connector is 4mm high. A USB-C connector is 1mm high. These are the hard numbers. How are you going to fit a 4mm hole into a 6mm aluminium sheet with any hopes of it being structurally stable? Yes, they could do it by abandoning the tapered design, but that is a different point altogether.

Users want multi-purpose future-proof modern connectors, not deprecated ones.

I think you're missing my point, but either way - it still stands.
Apple claims 'can't and couldn't when the reality is - doesn't feel like it, which often ignores the desires of their users.
A Surfacebook clone was able to have a USB-A port, Apple did not.
They designed for their own intent.
This is a pattern, much like the butterfly keyboard and the Touch Bar, which both have more detractors than proponents.

I've moved on and sucked it up in dongle-land, along with a dock for my MBP16, but it doesn't change the above pattern.
I'm finally able and willing to buy a MacBook Pro, and did - now they reverted keyboards and added a physical ESC key.
So - it's better than it was, when Apple's choices left many of us with something we were unwilling to buy, and I like the MBP16 quite bit.

Let's see what Apple does next.

 

[leman]

I think you're missing my point, but either way - it still stands.
Apple claims 'can't and couldn't when the reality is - doesn't feel like it, which often ignores the desires of their users.
[...]
They designed for their own intent.

No, that's what Apple wants. I want USBC ports, USBA ports, and HDMI ports.

All very true. But isn't that kind of the point? Apple is a very opinionated company — and they have always been that way. They didn't do what "users" wanted, they did what they though was a good/interesting thing to do. Every time I hear this argument I have to wonder — if backwards compatibility is central to you, why would you ever consider Apple? Their track record with backwards compatibility is abysmal. I mean, they were the first one to ditch the most widely used ports in computers and completely move to a very obscure and novel connector (if you can't guess, I am talking about the original USB in 1998).

At the same time, not every user feels like you. I explicitly don't want any USB-A ports on my computer because it is my opinion that they are only wasting the footprint. Clearly, our opinions and desires are in conflict.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Apple claims 'can't and couldn't when the reality is - doesn't feel like it

I don’t think Apple ever claimed they “can’t” about USB-A, they just didn’t and very likely won’t.

 

[senttoschool]

All very true. But isn't that kind of the point? Apple is a very opinionated company — and they have always been that way. They didn't do what "users" wanted, they did what they though was a good/interesting thing to do. Every time I hear this argument I have to wonder — if backwards compatibility is central to you, why would you ever consider Apple? Their track record with backwards compatibility is abysmal. I mean, they were the first one to ditch the most widely used ports in computers and completely move to a very obscure and novel connector (if you can't guess, I am talking about the original USB in 1998).

At the same time, not every user feels like you. I explicitly don't want any USB-A ports on my computer because it is my opinion that they are only wasting the footprint. Clearly, our opinions and desires are in conflict.

I don't think Apple releases product based on what is "interesting". Better? Yes Good? Yes. Interesting? I don't buy it.

Apple has been backtracking on many of the mistakes the 2016 - 2019 Macbook Pros made by including a keyboard with more travel, a much bigger battery, and a physical ESC key.

This is their way of admitting they made giant mistakes, which include dongle hell, and it's hurting their sales.

From 2006 to 2015, Macs looked unstoppable and were increasing market share fast. Since then, their market share has either declined or stayed the same: https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...ow-slightly-but-apple-pc-market-share-shrinks

So while not every user feels like me, enough of them do.

 

[leman]

I don't think Apple releases product based on what is "interesting". Better? Yes Good? Yes. Interesting? I don't buy it.

Let me rephrase it: Apple releases products based on their own vision. Not the popular one. Not the most backwards compatible one. They have a vision, and they execute it. Sometimes it's a miss. Most of the time it is a trend setter. I can't count times when Apple did something that everyone said was completely ridiculous — and a few years later everyone was dong the same thing.

Apple has been backtracking on many of the mistakes the 2016 - 2019 Macbook Pros made by including a keyboard with more travel, a much bigger battery, and a physical ESC key.

This is their way of admitting they made giant mistakes, which include dongle hell, and it's hurting their sales.

They identified some key issues (pun intended) and decided that the esc key needs to come back. They also admitted that they can't get the butterfly switch to work. And yes, they made the 16" slightly bigger again (still smaller than the first retina MBP!) to give it a slight performance boost in some edge cases. These are all rather small adjustments and I think most users can agree that they fixes some issues and made the product better.

Hovewer, I don't really see how them returning the esc key is admitting a problem with dongles.

From 2006 to 2015, Macs looked unstoppable and were increasing market share fast. Since then, their market share has either declined or stayed the same: https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...ow-slightly-but-apple-pc-market-share-shrinks

Operating System Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats

This graph shows the market share of operating systems worldwide based on over 5 billion monthly page views.

gs.statcounter.com

What I see here is that the Mac marketshare has been more or less constant for the last decade. There is no doubt that there are variations up and down, but I don't see users abandoning the Mac in masses like some here would like to portray. Right now the global macOS market share is around 30% higher than it was in 2015.

 

[deeddawg]

The answer is a definite maybe.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

From 2006 to 2015, Macs looked unstoppable and were increasing market share fast. Since then, their market share has either declined or stayed the same:

Mac sales falling have less to do with physical ESC keys or the Touch Bar and more to do with folks buying things other than Macs that fit their needs better. And, in many cases, those “things other than Macs” have been in the iPad line.

 

[senttoschool]

Let me rephrase it: Apple releases products based on their own vision. Not the popular one. Not the most backwards compatible one. They have a vision, and they execute it. Sometimes it's a miss. Most of the time it is a trend setter. I can't count times when Apple did something that everyone said was completely ridiculous — and a few years later everyone was dong the same thing.

You're getting too far ahead of the original argument. The point I made was that having only USBC ports is not what users wanted in the 2016 Macbook Pro. And even today, if you buy an iPhone 11, you can't charge it on your Macbook Pro without a $20 cable or carry a dongle. No one wants that.

And yes, I'm well aware of the fact that Apple is often the trendsetter. No one is arguing that.

They identified some key issues (pun intended) and decided that the esc key needs to come back. They also admitted that they can't get the butterfly switch to work. And yes, they made the 16" slightly bigger again (still smaller than the first retina MBP!) to give it a slight performance boost in some edge cases. These are all rather small adjustments and I think most users can agree that they fixes some issues and made the product better.

Hovewer, I don't really see how them returning the esc key is admitting a problem with dongles.

It's great that you think making the 2020 16" more like the 2015 15" is what made the product better. I agree here.

I don't think I claimed that giving a the 16" a physical ESC key is admitting a problem with dongles.

Dongles was a huge nightmare in 2016. It continues to be an annoyance in 2020.

What I see here is that the Mac marketshare has been more or less constant for the last decade. There is no doubt that there are variations up and down, but I don't see users abandoning the Mac in masses like some here would like to portray. Right now the global macOS market share is around 30% higher than it was in 2015.

That's a poor way of showing market share. It should be by the number of computers sold per year, not how often someone uses MacOS to visit a website. There are too many variables with the latter such as how long each Mac lasts vs how long each PC lasts.

It's no secret that Mac shares have stagnated or declined since the 2016 Macbook Pro. There's no need to defend this fact.

Apple's Mac Shipments Increase in Q2 2018 as PC Market Sees First Growth in 6 Years [Updated]

Apple's worldwide Mac shipments grew 3 percent in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the year-ago quarter, according to new preliminary PC...

www.macrumors.com

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Mac sales falling have less to do with physical ESC keys or the Touch Bar and more to do with folks buying things other than Macs that fit their needs better. And, in many cases, those “things other than Macs” have been in the iPad line.

I don't buy your theory.

First of all, we're talking about Mac's marketshare vs PCs.

Second, look at this chart. Look at the rapid market share increase from 2006 to... Q4 of 2016 when this generation of Macbook Pros released and when market share started to stagnate.

Apple's Mac Shipments Increase in Q2 2018 as PC Market Sees First Growth in 6 Years [Updated]

Apple's worldwide Mac shipments grew 3 percent in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the year-ago quarter, according to new preliminary PC...

www.macrumors.com

 

[Unregistered 4U]

And yes, they made the 16" slightly bigger again

Part of me thinks this was due to Intel’s recurring inability to build a chip that would work well in their 15 inch case, so they had to go larger

 

[Michael Scrip]

That's a poor way of showing market share. It should be by the number of computers sold per year, not how often someone uses MacOS to visit a website.

Exactly.

"Market Share" is typically the term referring to new sales of devices in a quarter or year. They add up all the sales during that period... then they figure out the percentage for each vendor or platform.

But StatCounter seems to be exploring "Usage Share" which is an entirely different measurement. They're looking at the total number of active devices during a particular time. StatCounter collects their data by seeing which devices visit various websites and they figure out the percentage for each vendor or platform.

It's confusing because StatCounter uses the term "market share" in their charts... when they are clearly measuring "usage share"

StatCounter is a web traffic analysis company. (usage share)

They don't track sales. (market share)

 

[Unregistered 4U]

First of all, we're talking about Mac's marketshare vs PCs.

Second, look at this chart. Look at the rapid market share increase from 2006 to... Q4 of 2016 when this generation of Macbook Pros released and when market share started to stagnate.

Macs vs PC’s is not the entire picture, though. Someone could look at sales of iPods from 2007 to 2012 and reason that Apple‘s drop in sales of the iPod must have been due to some failure of the iPod line, some feature that Apple got completely wrong... completely missing the fact that the iPhone was released in 2007 and, over subsequent years, fewer and fewer folks needed a separate music player.

So, while your chart provides a backdrop to claim that it MUST specifically due to the MacBook Pro, it primarily works only if you ignore everything else going on in the computing world. As of May 2017, Apple had sold more than 360 million iPads. It’s not a stretch to think that a good number of those were in place of a potential Mac purchase.

 

[senttoschool]

Macs vs PC’s is not the entire picture, though. Someone could look at sales of iPods from 2007 to 2012 and reason that Apple‘s drop in sales of the iPod must have been due to some failure of the iPod line, some feature that Apple got completely wrong... completely missing the fact that the iPhone was released in 2007 and, over subsequent years, fewer and fewer folks needed a separate music player.

So, while your chart provides a backdrop to claim that it MUST specifically due to the MacBook Pro, it primarily works only if you ignore everything else going on in the computing world. As of May 2017, Apple had sold more than 360 million iPads. It’s not a stretch to think that a good number of those were in place of a potential Mac purchase.

We don't have that data to make those claims.

If you want to make those claims, you'll have to get the following data:
- % of customers who purchased an iPad who otherwise would have purchased a Mac
- % of customers who purchased an iPad who otherwise would have purchased a PC

The simplest explanation, by looking at the period when Mac market share started to decline and by the significant negative feedback for the 2016-2019 Macbook Pros, is that people didn't want to buy the new Macbook Pros.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

They don't track sales. (market)

Marketshare tracks sales relative to something else, though, right? So, how about a chart that shows Apple’s sales? Because, according to market share, Apple could sell MORE computers in a quarter, but if way more PC’s are sold (because there was a blowout sale on Meldown PC’s ) then Apple’s trend line would show a decrease because the market as a whole grew, but Apple didn’t grow as fast. Which is the point the linked article was making as well.

Apple's market share in the global PC market shrunk slightly in the third quarter of 2019 compared with last year, according to Canalys, despite the company seeing a year-on-year increase in Mac and MacBook shipments.

So, now I’m curious what happens if we look at ACTUAL sales. Fortunately, that info is out there. And, when you look at it sales have been between 15 and 20 million since 2011. They even sold MORE Macs in 2017 than they did in 2016. So... people LIKED the keyboard change?

 

[Madhatter32]

Mac sales are stagnant and the touchbar, along with the butterfly keyboard, have not helped. Progress by the likes of Dell, Lenovo and others have not helped either. If apple wants to distinguish their Mac line, it should focus on software reliability and hardware quality. The touchbar does not add much to the user experience and has simply made the machine more costly and unreliable.

 

[c0ppo]

They even sold MORE Macs in 2017 than they did in 2016. So... people LIKED the keyboard change?

Back in 2015/16, MBP was long overdue for a hardware upgrade. Lots of people waited for that upgrade, there were huge threads here on forums. I was also in those threads. So 2017 selling more then outdated hardware from 2015 is not surprising.

And I really don't think you're reading those charts good. From 2006-2016 Macs were rising in sales. Since 2016 they started to stagnate or decline, even by your own chart. Now I don't know the reason for that, but your chart clearly shows that.

 

[Michael Scrip]

Market share tracks sales relative to something else, though, right?

You are correct. Market share is a percentage of sales compared to the entire industry of sales.

So if Apple sells 5 million Macs in a quarter... and the entire industry sells 60 million computers... then Apple got 8.33% market share.

That's how they calculate market share... it's the percentage of new devices sold during that quarter.


But StatCounter is measuring something completely different. They measure web traffic only. They don't track new sales.

StatCounter looks at all devices during that time... whether it's a brand new device... or you've had it for many years. They see which devices and platforms visit various websites. It's typically known as "usage share"

That's what I was trying to clear up.


Take me for instance... I'm using an iPhone 6S Plus. I purchased it in Q4 2015... so my purchase was included in the Q4 2015 market share reports.

But I haven't bought a new phone since then... so I haven't been included in any market share statistics since then.

However... I use my phone every day. So I'm definitely included in usage share statistics.

 

[georgelewisray]

Touch Bar vs Physical Keys ::
I am used to physical keys but it is not clear that they are best in this use case .

Reminds me of early Steve Jobs & Steve Balmer . . . . . .

Steve #1 :: "have keys change to match the needs of the application , why be limited to fixed physical keys ?"

Steve #2 :: "business won't like it because it's not good for email because it doesn't have a keyboard."

How is this thread/discussion different?

 

[Unregistered 4U]

That's what I was trying to clear up.

Got it! 👍 I was curious as to why use comparative metrics of any kind rather than the actual sales and I guessed that it’s because the comparative metric more clearly shows a change in 2016 that helps support the poster’s claim whereas the actual numbers don’t.

I am used to physical keys but it is not clear that they are best in this use case .

When one considers that out of 12 function keys, only 8 are used for volume, media control, and screen brightness, it makes sense (perhaps to me only) to make better use of the space rather than making a row of 12 buttons, 4 of which will go mostly unused.

I was also in those threads. So 2017 selling more then outdated hardware from 2015 is not surprising.

Good point and good additional background that what was happening post 2016 was not JUST about the Touch Bar or the keyboard.

Since 2016 they started to stagnate or decline, even by your own chart. Now I don't know the reason for that, but your chart clearly shows that.

Another good point, and there may be a good story that can define why there were over 20 million sales in 2015. If you only focus on sales since 2015, it looks like a downward trend. However, going back a few years to 2011, there’s only a 4.25 million difference between the lowest sales and the highest sales. And, the 2018 sales aren’t even the lowest sales since 2011. Looking at Gartner numbers, 2019 sales were 17.68 still higher than 2013 and still within the 4.25 range that’s been steady since 2011.

 

[unchecked]

Using a refurbed 13" 2018 MBP, the only thing I really miss is the physical escape key. Glad to see it come back to the 16" and it's still there with the MBA. Will get a new MBP when the ARM one with USB4 comes out.

I'm indifferent to the rest of the touch bar. It can stay.

 

[leman]

Using a refurbed 13" 2018 MBP, the only thing I really miss is the physical escape key. Glad to see it come back to the 16" and it's still there with the MBA. Will get a new MBP when the ARM one with USB4 comes out.

I'm indifferent to the rest of the touch bar. It can stay.

I believe this is exactly how most customers feel.

 

[leman]

That's a poor way of showing market share. It should be by the number of computers sold per year, not how often someone uses MacOS to visit a website. There are too many variables with the latter such as how long each Mac lasts vs how long each PC lasts.

I understand your point. I think for the purpose of our discussion both metrics (usage-based and sale-based) can be utilized successfully, since we are essentially interested in knowing whether the Mac has suffered from decrease in popularity in a given time period.

At any rate, I am not sure that I agree with your analysis. The graphs you post mainly show that the seasonal sales have "smoothed" out. This — as you say yourself — can have multiple causes, such as lack of overall progress in computer performance. One would need to to a proper time series analysis to analyse the trends and compare it to the rest of the market, but to my eye, this does not look like a downwards one.

Consider for example this visualization (it's not the best one, but it's what I could find quickly).

It's a bit messy to read but I don't think it shows any vendor on a clearly upward trajectory compared to 2012-2015. It is an overall stagnation period.

It's no secret that Mac shares have stagnated or declined since the 2016 Macbook Pro. There's no need to defend this fact.

I don't think that a relative decrease of 4% market share from Q3 18 to Q3 19 means much — from 2016 to 2018 for example Mac laptops makes share rose by 25% (source: https://9to5mac.com/2018/02/12/apple-mac-market-share/). Small fluctuations are just that — small fluctuations.

Bottomline: I would caution agains over-interpreting all these numbers. So far, there is no evidence that Apple users are abandoning the camp in droves, neither from market data nor from the financial Apple publishes. The ups and downs are consistent with the historical development.

 

[senttoschool]

With the arrival of ARM Macbooks, Apple should be able to differentiate in both the OS and performance (speed, battery life, thermals). In turn, I hope Apple will finally get rid of the embarrassment that is the touchbar.

Original prediction.

Looks like I'm right. With Apple Silicon, Apple no longer needs gimmicks like the touchbar to standout from Intel-based laptops. We will finally get a Macbook Pro without the touchbar.

Thank you Apple Silicon.

 

[leman]

Looks like I'm right. With Apple Silicon, Apple no longer needs gimmicks like the touchbar to standout from Intel-based laptops. We will finally get a Macbook Pro without the touchbar.

Let's wait for the actual release though. I still have hard time believing that they would drop the TB.

 

[senttoschool]

Let's wait for the actual release though. I still have hard time believing that they would drop the TB.

Every rumor we've had since 2020 says the TB is going away.

I think it's 99% gone in my opinion.