iPod Will iPhone kill a true video iPod?

[Hunts121]

an 8 GB video iPod? (the iPhone) wow thats pretty useless. For a phone its pretty amazing, but if its to be primarily used as an iPod/Video iPod, its not for me. If I'm getting any sort of iPod it has to be 30Gb at the very least. There is no way the iPhone is the video iPod we've been waiting on. Its another product altogether.

However, lets assume it is, I'm not paying 600 bucks for a video iPod with 8GB of space..I don't care what else it does there just isn't enough space for it to be my sole iPod nevermind one with music and video on it.

 

[gkarris]

an 8 GB video iPod? (the iPhone) wow thats pretty useless. For a phone its pretty amazing, but if its to be primarily used as an iPod/Video iPod, its not for me If I'm getting any sort of iPod it has to be 30Gb at the very least. There is no way the iPhone is the video iPod we've been waiting on. Its another product altogether.

However, lets assume it is, I'm not paying 600 bucks for a video iPod with 8GB of space..I don't care what else it does there just isn't enough space for it to be my sole iPod nevermind one with music and video on it.

Yea, my 60 Gig is fast becoming full. I'd like to see a 120 Gig... maybe even a 160 Gig to match the TV.

 

[rockthecasbah]

I believe that is why Apple limited the iPhone to the 4GB or 8GB, to prevent canabalization. There will always be a desire for more space and by limiting the one, they keep the standard iPod alive longer. Hopefully they release it with similar characteristics to the iPhone (touch screen but no WiFi or Edge) and give a slight bump in capacity while still keeping prices around that $250-400 mark.

 

[66217]

I'm hearing that Apple wants to go with all flash-based iPods. Hence the long wait until the prices for memory goes down...

But if they are going to make a widescreen iPod, you would want to have a lot of space for videos. And flash drives of 100GB are still a long way to become cheap.

 

[evanrousso]

Some people may be forgetting that at&t may have a say in this too. They certainly don't want a new ipod to come out and undercut their two year service agreements required to purchase an iPhone. Maybe part of their deal with Apple was for Apple to hold off on a similarly functioning ipod until next year.

Out of the two companies, at&t and Apple, who do you think has the power in the iPhone situation anyways? Apple may have introduced the device and built the hype, but they need at&t (for some reason) to bring it to the market. Why they couldnt have released it unlocked is beyond me, but that is neither here nor their.

If I had to guess I would say that at&t wants Apple to hold off on a new iPod. Any thoughts?

 

[evanrousso]

One more thing...

If at&t isn't an issue, I don't see a new iPod cutting into iPhone sales either. Take the MacBook and the MacBook Pro for example. There aren't huge differences between the two, when the Pro gets an upgrade, the MacBook gets it a few months later. Aside from the screen size, extra usb port , and backlit keys, you can get the same MacBook BTO as a MacBook Pro.

 

[atszyman]

Some people may be forgetting that at&t may have a say in this too. They certainly don't want a new ipod to come out and undercut their two year service agreements required to purchase an iPhone. Maybe part of their deal with Apple was for Apple to hold off on a similarly functioning ipod until next year.

I doubt it would be til next year, at most a few months, once the hype dies down. at&t doesn't necessarily care which phone people buy their 2 year contract with. Their job is to (over)charge for the network services. Any phone they can sell a 2 year contract with voice and data plans is their goal. In fact it might be in their better interest to not have the iPhone sold on the plans since they will be many people's first line of tech support on a rev A product that is likely to have a few bugs.

Out of the two companies, at&t and Apple, who do you think has the power in the iPhone situation anyways? Apple may have introduced the device and built the hype, but they need at&t (for some reason) to bring it to the market. Why they couldnt have released it unlocked is beyond me, but that is neither here nor their.

They needed at least one provider to modify their voicemail system to support the iPhone's voice mail features. Also, they needed a network to test on, and I'm sure any part of the agreement for using the network for testing required some exclusivity on distribution.

If I had to guess I would say that at&t wants Apple to hold off on a new iPod. Any thoughts?

I don't think at&t cares much other than the initial wave. If the press and reviews are good and word of mouth is strong, people will keep coming for the iPhone. If reviews are bad or there are some massive bugs then they are in better shape if Apple releases the iPod to try to push people toward more reliable phones along with the new iPod. Since at&t is likely making little to no money off the phone itself their primary goal will be to get people into the stores and signed up for contracts, iPhone or not.

 

[mhuk01]

personally I am 99% certain i'll buy the iphone when it is released at the end of the year in the UK (provided vodafone get the deal as i'm tied into their contract )

although it doesn't have nearly enough space (i am over my 20gig ipod limit and thats just music!) - i love the idea of having this all in one device with internet etc.

If apple replicate the iphone with a hard drive based non-phone hard drive version, i don't think it'll include any internet for the simple fact that it would then be an iphone with huge capacity, just no phone. This WOULD take sales away from the iphone for sure. However, i could see the potential for apple to release a touch ipod with just video and music.

By the end of the year? wouldn't that be great! but if they do this, it would only be a US launch which would piss everyone but the US off bigtime! A worldwide launch simply wouldn't be possible as the iphone would only just be getting released in europe, it would be marketing suicide.

To conclude, i'm sure it'll come, but probably not until '08, or marketed very differently from the iphone to avoid loss of sales.

 

[Yvan256]

That's no reason to include Wifi. By that logic MacBooks should all have the same features as the Pros because all the R&D and parts suppliers are in place. But they don't have backlit keyboards, FW800, or dedicated graphics, partly due to price points, mostly due to keeping the lines distinct.

What you just said contradicts what I said above. Your logic assumes the prices are different, which I've listed above as a 100GB 6th gen. iPod (with Wi-Fi and all) being the same price as the iPhone. What I meant was that the R&D was done, all the work for getting the parts was done, etc. There's no real work involved, all they have to do is take the iPhone and remove things from it.

Maybe only the high-end model of iPod could include the Wi-Fi and programs part, but as I said above, the competition isn't standing still either. Adding the software doesn't add anything to the cost of the iPod, and Wi-Fi ICs can't cost that much if they can fit them inside 20$ Wi-Fi Network Finder keychains.

Now that we've seen what Apple can fit inside a case the side of an iPod, we want those features. And a 8GB iPhone is useless for someone who needs, say, 60GB of storage space.

Edit: I really don't understand why so many of you think that Apple should not include the Wi-Fi, Safari, Mail, Google Maps and all on the next iPod. Saying "but it's not what an iPod is for" is a weak argument. Imagine saying that about videos when the 1st or 2nd gen. iPod came out. You would have been the ones saying "but the iPod is for music, movies have nothing to do with an iPod." It's the progression of the iPod, and now that Apple has shown it for the iPhone, we know it exists, we know it can be done and we want it for the next iPod too. It's as simple as that.

Why would the high-end iPod be tied to a phone carrier, it makes absolutely no sense. And that high-end iPod is limited to 8GB of storage, which makes it a pretty weak iPod IMHO. That's like being forced to get dial-up AOL internet access with your Mac Pro. Oh, and that Mac Pro only has 40GB of drive space too, by the way.

 

[atszyman]

What you just said contradicts what I said above. Your logic assumes the prices are different, which I've listed above as a 100GB 6th gen. iPod (with Wi-Fi and all) being the same price as the iPhone. What I meant was that the R&D was done, all the work for getting the parts was done, etc. There's no real work involved, all they have to do is take the iPhone and remove things from it.

I just don't see them raising the price of iPods so that they can include WiFi. I don't think I've ever seen an iPod that costs more than $400 and the usual model is to update/add features while cutting the price not raising it. I'm not saying iPods will never have it but I would almost be willing to bet that the first generation widescreen/touchscreen video iPods won't have WiFi. Possibly a similar interface to the iPhone music/movie/photo browsers but without all the underlying OS required to do web browsing and email.

As for WiFi being cheap, Bluetooth has always been fairly cheap chipset wise but I remember when it was a BTO option only on iBooks while standard on PowerBooks. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean that the designers/builders want to add another chipset that might malfunction or affect design yields or add more time to functional/verification testing.

Time will tell who is right here, but I just don't see the iPods getting WiFi in the near term.

As for just removing things from the iPhone it's not always that simple. They have to make room for the HD which is going to be bigger than the flash memory without greatly increasing the size. They also have to put together the whole HD interface circuitry and make work with the (new?) CPU. And why have the bloated iPhone OS when all you really need are the photo/music/video browsers?

 

[jdechko]

I can see this happening:

iPhone
iPod (like iPhone but without phone/web/email)

and ONE MORE THING...

Introducing the iNewton!

iPod + WiFi

(**Ducks**)

 

[gkarris]

I can see this happening:

iPhone
iPod (like iPhone but without phone/web/email)

and ONE MORE THING...

Introducing the iNewton!

iPod + WiFi

(**Ducks**)

iDon'tThinkSo...

with the iPhone, Steve said that the whole "writing stylus" thing is passe...

 

[Yvan256]

I just don't see them raising the price of iPods so that they can include WiFi. I don't think I've ever seen an iPod that costs more than $400 and the usual model is to update/add features while cutting the price not raising it. I'm not saying iPods will never have it but I would almost be willing to bet that the first generation widescreen/touchscreen video iPods won't have WiFi. Possibly a similar interface to the iPhone music/movie/photo browsers but without all the underlying OS required to do web browsing and email.

You seem to be under the impression that including Wi-Fi costs a lot. But it doesn't. You can get USB Wi-Fi devices for about 30$US. That's the selling price for a single unit and it includes all the USB stuff.

Also, don't forget the discounts when buying in quantities. Yes, the CPU for the iPhone may cost more, however maybe including a different CPU in the next iPod would end up costing the same price since they would be buying X CPUs model 1 for the iPhone and Y CPUs model 2 for the iPod instead of X*2 CPUs model 1 for both the iPhone and iPod.

As for WiFi being cheap, Bluetooth has always been fairly cheap chipset wise but I remember when it was a BTO option only on iBooks while standard on PowerBooks. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean that the designers/builders want to add another chipset that might malfunction or affect design yields or add more time to functional/verification testing.

There also was a customer demand reason. I've never used Bluetooth in my life, even though my 12" PowerBook has it. Bluetooth has always been more "business-oriented", with the phone headsets, syncing and all. There was no point in including it in the early iBooks. But now that we have Bluetooth keyboards and mouses, the MacBook has it. As simple as that.

Now, everybody uses the internet, email and all those Internet Communicator programs that are included on the iPhone. They're not only for businessmen. They're not even tied to the phone part, aside from being able to click a link that was detected as being a phone number just like email links that can be clicked, which opens the Mail program.

Time will tell who is right here, but I just don't see the iPods getting WiFi in the near term.

And I don't see the next iPod without Wi-Fi.

In any case, I think that most people will agree that the next iPod should be widescreen.

The question is: when is it coming out?

 

[atszyman]

You seem to be under the impression that including Wi-Fi costs a lot. But it doesn't. You can get USB Wi-Fi devices for about 30$US. That's the selling price for a single unit and it includes all the USB stuff.

I know that WiFi is cheap but just because a feature is cheap does not mean it needs to be included as one more feature to test and/or break or cause yield issues.

Also, don't forget the discounts when buying in quantities. Yes, the CPU for the iPhone may cost more, however maybe including a different CPU in the next iPod would end up costing the same price since they would be buying X CPUs model 1 for the iPhone and Y CPUs model 2 for the iPod instead of X*2 CPUs model 1 for both the iPhone and iPod.

But if the iPod and iPhone use the same processor (which I don't doubt will happen) it now has a flash memory interface running which will have to now work with a HD. The interface and drivers may be very similar but not necessarily identical.

There also was a customer demand reason. I've never used Bluetooth in my life, even though my 12" PowerBook has it. Bluetooth has always been more "business-oriented", with the phone headsets, syncing and all. There was no point in including it in the early iBooks. But now that we have Bluetooth keyboards and mouses, the MacBook has it. As simple as that.

Now, everybody uses the internet, email and all those Internet Communicator programs that are included on the iPhone. They're not only for businessmen. They're not even tied to the phone part, aside from being able to click a link that was detected as being a phone number just like email links that can be clicked, which opens the Mail program.

How many places do you use your iPod where you wished it had internet functions? The gym, in your car? People already use their phones for browsing emailing and messaging, I just don't see that driving consumer demand for the iPod. The places I'm near a hotspot and need access I usually have my laptop or a computer handy with a much bigger screen for browsing emailing.

And I don't see the next iPod without Wi-Fi.

In any case, I think that most people will agree that the next iPod should be widescreen.

The question is: when is it coming out?

That is the question. There is almost always a fall update around the beginning of the school year so I'd expect it by then, or at the latest October/November to cash in on Xmas.

 

[aidanpendragon]

Edit: I really don't understand why so many of you think that Apple should not include the Wi-Fi, Safari, Mail, Google Maps and all on the next iPod. Saying "but it's not what an iPod is for" is a weak argument.

Simple: too close to, and too much competition for, the much pricier iPhone. It's one thing to have a widescreen video iPod. Same basic product, looks a little nicer, has improved video. But an iPod that has everything but the Phone part - at surely a lower price - is competition they don't need. If you already have a phone, and like all the flashy iPhone features BUT the phone part, you'd just buy a Wifi'd, Safari'd, etc. iPod, and iPhones would rot on shelves.

I don't agree with an earlier poster that AT&T has massive veto power over much of anything, but neither they nor Apple would want to compete with themselves like that.

It's not that we think Apple shouldn't include those components, nor are we saying "that's not what an iPod's for." It's that Apple won't do it out of their own concern for product differentiation and purpose.

Once upon a time, there were two computers. The Lisa cost thousands and thousands of dollars. The Macintosh did everything the Lisa could at a fraction of the cost. Guess which one sold, and which one withered? Steve may be stubborn, but he probably remembers that lesson.

 

[Yvan256]

Simple: too close to, and too much competition for, the much pricier iPhone.

Higher price doesn't equal more profit. We don't know how much it costs for the phone parts. There's also probably FCC license fees in that price too. Removing the phone costs may very well lower the cost to 399$US, we simply don't know.

Once upon a time, there were two computers. The Lisa cost thousands and thousands of dollars. The Macintosh did everything the Lisa could at a fraction of the cost. Guess which one sold, and which one withered? Steve may be stubborn, but he probably remembers that lesson.

So what. Would you rather sell 10M iPhones with a 200$ profit on it, or 100M iPods with a 100$ profit on it? Remember, the potential customer base for the iPhone is extremely small compared to the iPod.

As for current phones having a browser, email and messaging, well, they all suck. No real browser on most phones, and the crappy numeric keypad is the worst possible way to enter an URL, type an email or reply to IMs.

Also, we carry our iPods all the time. This is about "I wish I had internet access right now", not "I'll bring my big, heavy, 1000$ 13 inch laptop with me just in case I need internet access".

And my last point still stands: the iPod needs to take another major leap ahead of the competition. A widescreen display alone just doesn't cut it anymore, even with a touch-screen interface.

 

[atszyman]

Simple: too close to, and too much competition for, the much pricier iPhone. It's one thing to have a widescreen video iPod. Same basic product, looks a little nicer, has improved video. But an iPod that has everything but the Phone part - at surely a lower price - is competition they don't need. If you already have a phone, and like all the flashy iPhone features BUT the phone part, you'd just buy a Wifi'd, Safari'd, etc. iPod, and iPhones would rot on shelves.

Exactly. I see the options as follows (assume Hard Drive based iPods 80-100 GB capacity)

iPod with WiFi at current price points would lead to most people buying an iPod and a cheap/free cell phone.

iPod with WiFi at iPhone price point would yield many to forsake the iPod, sure the capacity is greater but I can definitely force myself to live on 4-8 GB if it means I have one less device to carry, especially since my laptop is always with me and I can re-sync if there's something I need.

To many of us the only option that makes sense is an iPod without WiFi at the current price point. You get greater capacity for less money but you lose connectivity (please keep bluetooth for syncing though).

Now the killer iPhone companion would be a ~$100, 60-100GB NAS Hard Drive (with replaceable batteries) for carrying media files and accessing via the iPhone. Load your entire library on it and you can re-sync/fetch what you need without having to use your PC or laptop. If reliable enough these could also be sold as Time Machine disks....

So what. Would you rather sell 10M iPhones with a 200$ profit on it, or 100M iPods with a 100$ profit on it? Remember, the potential customer base for the iPhone is extremely small compared to the iPod.

I thought when Steve first introduced the iPhone he pointed out that a tiny fraction of the Cell phone market would eclipse total iPod sales? Or was I hallucinating again?

 

[aidanpendragon]

So what. Would you rather sell 10M iPhones with a 200$ profit on it, or 100M iPods with a 100$ profit on it? Remember, the potential customer base for the iPhone is extremely small compared to the iPod.

All the buzz I've been hearing is not "can they sell the iPhone" but "how many hours/days will it take to go through the initial 10 million (?) supply." Some are saying Steve's goal of 45 million sold through 2008 could be reached much earlier. EVERYONE is saying "this isn't like the iPod that will take years to reach big sales." Whether they pan out or not, those expectations are what Apple will base its plans, iPod included, on.

And let's rephrase your question: would you rather sell 10M iPhones or 100M iPods, or 10M iPhones AND 100M iPods? If you have devices too similar to each other, you're in the first scenario. If they are sufficiently different - iPhone and 5G/6G with "just" widescreen video iPod - you're in the second scenario. That's surely where Apple is aiming.

 

[jdechko]

iDon'tThinkSo...

with the iPhone, Steve said that the whole "writing stylus" thing is passe...

Who said anything about a stylus?

Basically the iPhone form factor across all 3 product lines, but each has varying levels of functionality going from iPod (music/movies/photos) to iNewton (music/movies/photos/WiFi+Safari) to iPhone (music/movies/photos/WiFi+Safari/Phone)

 

[atszyman]

I thought when Steve first introduced the iPhone he pointed out that a tiny fraction of the Cell phone market would eclipse total iPod sales? Or was I hallucinating again?

I found it in the keynote.

2006 MP3 player sales ~130 million
2006 Cell phone sales ~987 million

1% of Cell phone market ~10 million units

The cell phone market is a much bigger playing field but I'd really like to see stats on the 987 million phones as to how many of them were "smartphones" with functions similar to the iPhone where it's going to be competing. I don't see pulling in a lot of the "free phone" market, like myself (at least not this early).

 

[Verschoren]

erm... from the apple website:
«iPhone is a widescreen iPod with touch controls that lets you enjoy your content — including music, audiobooks, videos, TV shows, and movies — on a beautiful 3.5-inch widescreen display. It also lets you sync your content from the iTunes library on your PC or Mac.»

iPhone is a widescreen iPod
vs
iPhone is the widescreen iPod

I think theres a huge difference here..


[just my 0.02€]

 

[killerrobot]

I don't think Apple was ever trying to make a true Video iPod. I think they would have by now but instead put all their focus over the last I don't know how many months into making the iPhone (the widescreen ipod). I think the iPhone has killed the video star (ipod) and taken its place.

 

[aidanpendragon]

I don't think Apple was ever trying to make a true Video iPod. I think they would have by now but instead put all their focus over the last I don't know how many months into making the iPhone (the widescreen ipod). I think the iPhone has killed the video star (ipod) and taken its place.

Although I didn't mention this initially as a by-intent reason, it certainly fits compellingly with a "plans change" situation. We've seen how Leopard has taken a hit from the iPhone. Or, maybe they started on the video iPod, got the interface, and realized they could do so much more with it?

Anyone have May iPod sales numbers? Unless there's a big drop-off recently, the player is still selling and Apple may be loathe to mess with it anytime soon.

Me, I'll probably hold out until the next iPod revision, see if it's video or not, and buy one depending on how badly I feel like I need it. In MOST cases, revisions are not one on top of the other, so if the next one isn't video, it'll probably be a while before there is. (I can't tell from the Buyer's Guide when the iPod Photo came out & how long before it was replaced by the 5G...)

 

[milo]

It won't kill a video ipod, but it may delay it a bit.

I wouldn't expect a video ipod until a few months after the iPhone ships and is established, maybe not until after the first iPhone price drop.

While there is some overlap, there are many consumers who would only buy one or the other. They need to have both, the challenge will be figuring out the balance of features versus pricing.

And while a new ipod may have a few more features, I'd expect it to not have internet browsing or similar things at the iPhone level. That would definitely cross the line of being too similar to iPhone.

 

[killerrobot]

Although I didn't mention this initially as a by-intent reason, it certainly fits compellingly with a "plans change" situation. We've seen how Leopard has taken a hit from the iPhone. Or, maybe they started on the video iPod, got the interface, and realized they could do so much more with it?

That's exactly what I mean. I also think the iPhone is still going to be the major product under development because they have to do a lot of work with it still in order to be able to release it in Euro by 4Q. And with Leopard coming out around the same time, I just feel they're gonna drop the whole Videopod.