Will there be a thinner and lighter Apple Watch 2 next year?

[VirtualRain]

I'd guess they'd have a refresh cycle closer to Macbooks. Update internals every 18 months or so, but not the design. Maybe 3-4 years for design update? By then, they could have one with a much better battery in a thinner design, basically making it still have a one day battery. To get two full days in the same form factor would take a drastic change in battery tech I'd think.

MacBooks are updated based on Intels roadmap. The watch, like iDevices, has no such dependency.

If we've learned anything about Apple it's that they have no respect for people's past investments and making sure we get a nice long life out of them. On the contrary, they have a long track record of annual incremental and interesting (even innovative) updates to their mobile devices that dates back over a decade. They are so effective at this constant cycle of upgrades they are the envy of the industry. And besides the iterative design improvements, the constant increase in software sophistication almost ensures obsolescence within a few generations.

The watch will be no different than the iPod, iPhone and iPad that came before it in this regard. In fact, Apple is about to school the Swiss watch makers on how you get someone to buy a $600-$1000 watch every 2 years. Wait and see.

 

[bushman4]

Technology always outdated by newer versions and newer models regardless if it's an AppleWatch, Mac,, PC IPod etc

 

[bunnicula]

How often do you think Apple will upgrade the Apple Watch. I am not sure if people can stomach paying $1000-$1500 for a smart watch and then finding out it is already outdated a year later. This leads me to believe the Apple Watch might not be on a yearly upgrade cycle. Thoughts?

Nope. There will not be a thinner, lighter Apple Watch next year.

Or the year after, I'd be willing to bet. I'm sure they'll expand the line by 2016, but honestly... they cannot give people the stuff they want (like more battery time) while making this watch tiny unless they make it bigger somehow.

 

[Mildredop]

they cannot give people the stuff they want (like more battery time) while making this watch tiny unless they make it bigger somehow.

Apple never give people the stuff they want. They give them the stuff they want to give them.

The next Apple Watch will be thinner. And lighter.

 

[Piggie]

Apple never give people the stuff they want. They give them the stuff they want to give them.

The next Apple Watch will be thinner. And lighter.

I'm sure you are right.

If you know 100% you can do 20 things, but more will be hard to do.
If you give people all 20 things now, on a v1 product then you are setting yourself up for a major problem or next year when people will expect more.

It makes sense to offer say 10 things, and make a BIG deal out of the 10, then you know, whatever happens the following year you can add in the other 10, or even just 5 and save the 5 remaining till v3, by which time there should be some new things you can add onto the list.

Like a safety buffer that allows you to offer something new every time.

 

[bunnicula]

Apple never give people the stuff they want. They give them the stuff they want to give them.

The next Apple Watch will be thinner. And lighter.

I don't doubt that. It just won't be coming out very soon.

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I'm sure you are right.

If you know 100% you can do 20 things, but more will be hard to do.
If you give people all 20 things now, on a v1 product then you are setting yourself up for a major problem or next year when people will expect more.

It makes sense to offer say 10 things, and make a BIG deal out of the 10, then you know, whatever happens the following year you can add in the other 10, or even just 5 and save the 5 remaining till v3, by which time there should be some new things you can add onto the list.

Like a safety buffer that allows you to offer something new every time.

Think about how long it took to go from iPad to iPad mini and iPad air.

It took from iPhone original to iPhone 4 to get a much thinner product.

It'll happen faster with the Apple Watch, but don't expect it next year. This is still very new.

 

[VirtualRain]

Will there be a thinner and lighter Apple Watch 2 next year?

Nope. There will not be a thinner, lighter Apple Watch next year.



Or the year after, I'd be willing to bet. I'm sure they'll expand the line by 2016, but honestly... they cannot give people the stuff they want (like more battery time) while making this watch tiny unless they make it bigger somehow.

Apple has always put thinner before more battery life. EVERY Apple mobile product (and even those powered from the wall) gets thinner with each redesign while battery life remains about the same... about enough for a working day.

Look at the iPhone 6... Who wouldn't want more battery from a slightly thicker phone without an ugly protrusion on the back for the camera lens? Most people. Did Apple do what most people wanted? No.

We're already use to charging all our devices at the end of a day of use... The watch will fit right into this routine.

Best case, the Apple watch follows the iPhone cycle of a new hardware design every other year. Worst case, it follows the iPad which saw a new design about every year (and I think the iPad 4 came only 6 months after the 3)

 

[bunnicula]

Apple has always put thinner before more battery life. EVERY Apple mobile product (and even those powered from the wall) gets thinner with each redesign while battery life remains about the same... about enough for a working day.

Look at the iPhone 6... Who wouldn't want more battery from a slightly thicker phone without an ugly protrusion on the back for the camera lens? Most people. Did Apple do what most people wanted? No.

We're already use to charging all our devices at the end of a day of use... The watch will fit right into this routine.

Best case, the Apple watch follows the iPhone cycle of a new hardware design every other year. Worst case, it follows the iPad which saw a new design about every year (and I think the iPad 4 came only 6 months after the 3)

It'll be every other. That's my guess. But, even at that rate, consider how long it took before they ever had such thin devices. And making them larger is how they got that way.

The watch will get thinner, but I would not expect a dramatic change with the next redesign.

 

[FlatCable]

I don't think they are going to cut down on thinness...

It's already below popular watches sold today at 10.5mm...

It's already up to the same thickness of a Timex Weekender Quartz watch!

 

[mchoffa]

MacBooks are updated based on Intels roadmap. The watch, like iDevices, has no such dependency.

If we've learned anything about Apple it's that they have no respect for people's past investments and making sure we get a nice long life out of them. On the contrary, they have a long track record of annual incremental and interesting (even innovative) updates to their mobile devices that dates back over a decade. They are so effective at this constant cycle of upgrades they are the envy of the industry. And besides the iterative design improvements, the constant increase in software sophistication almost ensures obsolescence within a few generations.

The watch will be no different than the iPod, iPhone and iPad that came before it in this regard. In fact, Apple is about to school the Swiss watch makers on how you get someone to buy a $600-$1000 watch every 2 years. Wait and see.

But iPhones are updated based on people doing two year upgrades. Android phone makers are the ones doing as frequent updates as possible.

Also, I didn't mean the spec upgrades on Macbooks, I meant redesigns. Of course they do minor bumps every time Intel has a new chipset, but the redesigns are few and far between, while iPhones are consistently redesign followed by spec bump every two years, based on two year phone contracts and their subsidization. They know people will upgrade every two years because they don't have to pay full price.

My bet would be on a 4 year upgrade cycle (average) for the watch. No one knows though.

 

[leedsT]

It seems clear to me that Apples upgrade cycle will be dictated to a certain extent by the competition.

If the android wear watches begin to get 2 days+ battery life and gain traction with the Swiss watchmakers in the next year then I assume that Apple will want to upgrade their watch fairly rapidly. If not then the upgrade cycle could be much longer.

Personally I think Apple will, like the MacBooks, stick the the same form factor for about 4 years before any major changes. I can see battery life improving, new bands being developed and maybe the inclusion of new sensors, but overall the watch will essentially look the same. I bet that by WWDC next year there will be an upgraded model with a modest battery life bump.

 

[TallManNY]

I think just the existence of the $10k edition makes me question a yearly, bi-yearly, or even longer upgrade cycle.

I know, I know... super-rich Saudi-prince, would buy a $10k watch yearly without a second thought, but for the typical American upper class, $200k-300k/yr salary, I can't see the Edition being more than a once every 5-10 year purchase... if that.

I think the Edition is too expensive for the American making $200k-$300k because the Edition can't be a 5 to 10 year purchase. At that salary, a single person could buy a rolex thinking that it completes his outfit for his job and that he could wear it for the rest of his life. But you can't say that about the edition.

So I think an American needs to be making in the $500k or more per year, and done that for a few years so they have millions in the savings, before they start shopping for the Edition.

 

[kdarling]

It seems clear to me that Apples upgrade cycle will be dictated to a certain extent by the competition.

If the android wear watches begin to get 2 days+ battery life and gain traction with the Swiss watchmakers in the next year then I assume that Apple will want to upgrade their watch fairly rapidly. If not then the upgrade cycle could be much longer.

Yes, I think it depends on if Android Wear becomes available for iOS, and how much it can do. Although price will no doubt help people negotiate with the latter

For instance, round watches outsell square ones by a ratio of 20-30 to one. A nice looking round iOS compatible watch that sells for under $200 (as the Moto 360 does), and able to use standard wrist straps (as most AWear watches can) would be incredibly compelling to a lot of people... and huge competition for Apple's pricier but more full featured (e.g. Apple Pay) device.