NO! Highly unlikely. Many reasons:
Just some thoughts on your reasons...
1. New firmware doesn't prevent a hardware update. I personally think some of the firmware update, will take advantage of new hardware.
2. The
current iPhone doesn't have to sell 10 million units, the iPhone has to sell 10 million units. Some market researchers believe new hardware is paramount to meeting that goal.
3. Steve Jobs has said 3G iPhone in 2008, so I doubt 2009. AT&T hasn't re-captured customers who upgraded to a 16GB iPhone, I'm not sure they will with new hardware either.
4. AT&T has been offering 3G phones for a while now. The current network is fine because the phone will always drop to EDGE when needed. At this point, people are saying Apple doesn't offer 3G, while AT&T does. Once a 3G iPhone is released it'll all be on AT&T to finish their roll-out.
5. So wait until your product quits selling to update the hardware? Look at the iMac, MacBook, iPod or especially the iPod mini - Apple is know for changing successful products. You must release a new model to stay ahead of the curve and remain the industry leader.
6. I'm sure there were features cut from the current iPhone that have been worked on since the beginning. And Steve Jobs said they've been working on the next few models of iPhone for a while now.
7. Current iPhone has still to come out in many countries Apple said it would (Australia, China, Japan, Spain and Cananda)
Many of people argue that the product will not meet mass expectation if it's not 3G for those countries where 3G is prevalent.
I also think we'll see quite a few new applications available from Apple in June. There are certain features and applications that truly need to be written by Apple, even if a third party releases their own.