Let's follow your thesis assuming that the damage is already done.. What does it do to the Iphone 5 sales so far? Nothing much that I can tell.. Apple is still selling as many as Iphone 5 as they can make. If you follow the Iphone 5 forum, user decision are more affected by the scuff-gate, the wifi problem, the battery draining problem and LTE data usage problem much more than map.
Those with 5s have other, and sometimes much larger, problems to deal with than the Maps, but that doesn't mean that the maps are working for them either.
If anything, those issues are only compounding the rest of the damage that has been done.
It's not the iPhone 5's sales that will take the hit, it's the future devices that will. After all, for the most part, those buying an iPhone 5 have little or no experience with iOS 6. On the other hand, those with previous model phones who were burned by iOS 6's faults won't be nearly as blind to the other options as their contracts become available.
As you said, "Tomorrow, they will make a different choice base on the competitions and what they perceived as best for their money."
It's those people Apple should be the most worried about, but (so far) don't seem to care.
The battle is not on the map, the battle is for the future location based apps. Assuming that you are correct that a big subgroup of folks will never use Apple map again. They either bounce off to Android device or just use the alternative solution in IOS. When Apple start rolling out location based apps , consumer will get drag back into Apple map because of the tie in (e.g. when passport work a lot better with more business using passport, are user continue to stick to Google map and don't use passport??). So either someone is so mad about Apple Map that they refuse to use any future location based app that tie into Apple map or Apple will regain the user base overtime.
It's not my refusal to work with Apple's Maps, it's Apple's Maps refusal to work for me. The serious lack of up to date POI is just the tip of the problem. For me and everyone around me, the addresses are wrong. Sometimes it's a few hundred feet, other times it's up to a mile, but they're off.
That means that features I once had and used, location based reminders, Find My Phone/ Friends, etc, will not work until Apple fixes the maps. If any of the nearby stores used Passbook, it'd be the same problem.
There isn't any alternative solution in iOS.
Apple map roll out is a disaster. There is no way to sugar coat it. It could have brought down any other company and Scott Fostall should have been fired for misleading his boss and the user alike. Fortunately Apple has enough good will and strong enough product and ecosystem to withstand the fiasco.
Where is this "good will" you speak of? When the iPhone 4 had an antenna problem, the CEO stood before the public, said that it would work fine if they just held it properly, and STILL offered free bumpers to everyone.
With this, the CEO has publicly apologized and recommended their competitors products, but didn't offer any good will or solutions to the problems they've created. Features my phone had and used a few weeks ago no longer do and the only solution I receive is "we're working on it, but we don't know when it will be fixed so you just need to be more patient."
That's not good will. That's Apple turning their back on a customer and damaging their reputation.