iPhone XR XR first weekend sales, estimates all being lowered?

[Renho]

First of all, where did you see/hear the 9 million number? Secondly, who expected 10 million?

If either of these answers are anything other than Apple, then it's irrelevant. It's all just noise until Apple makes their next announcement. I was at the Christiana Mall store this weekend and it was packed. Doesn't mean anything as it's just noise.
[doublepost=1540836485][/doublepost]
I agree that the Xr will be the most popular model. The beautiful thing (for AAPL shareholders) about this scenario is that the starting price of the Xr is higher then the previous ASP, which was an all-time record. So unless the the 7's and 8's are flying off the shelves, look for another huge jump in the ASP in the next two quarters.

By the statistical data taken. Then after the sales report they come up with numbers. Since Apple stopped giving opening weekend sales numbers all we have is data and guessing. But they make really good guess’s. And some from supply chain insiders..

The 9 million number was given by Rosenblatt Securities' Jun Zhang.
[doublepost=1540855934][/doublepost]

If anything, allowing consumers to physically compare XR and Xs/Max will result in cannibalization. Every review out there for the XR is positive and most suggest forgetting the Xs.

Xs and Max buyers are well out of the 14-day return policy (and even the unofficial 30-day policy), so we're seeing some launch day Xs/Max owners pour cold water on the XR.
[doublepost=1540838849][/doublepost]

If we assume the numbers are accurate and put that into perspective:

1. Xs/Max had 30 days to soak up demand which has building since November 2017.
2. XR sold 90% relative to the combined sales of two phones: Xs and Xs Max.
3. XR is clearly targeted towards pragmatic buyers who are not early adopters or pre-order geeks.

There's zero doubt in my mind the XR will make up 50% or more of Apple's iPhone sales for this cycle.

If you think about it, the 6s/6s+ had 13 mil opening weekend sales. If you add the XR with XS/XSMax that’s 19 mill opening weekend. That’s a huge opening weekend. Granted they did add one more model compared to 2 with the 6s/6s+

 

[brianric]

Xs and Max buyers are well out of the 14-day return policy (and even the unofficial 30-day policy), so we're seeing some launch day Xs/Max owners pour cold water on the XR.
[doublepost=1540838849][/doublepost]

I was a launch day XR buyer. Ended up returning XR and got a Xs Max.

 

[Renho]

I was a launch day XR buyer. Ended up returning XR and got a Xs Max.

How come? Did it seem like toyish to you?
The bezels looked a little weird. Wondering why you returned?

Everybody keeps saying it’s cheaper. But if you have $850, you probably can get $1150. Yes it’s cheaper but in the real meaning of cheaper, $500 comes to mind in the true meaning of cheaper Compared to $1000.. lol if that makes sense.

 

[44267547]

The hype died for it...took to long to release..

This is Not True. There was never any hype for the XR to begin with, let alone very little marketing that followed. Apple intentionally separated the XR launch, so it would not take away the limelight from the XS launch. The marketing you will see for the XR will come from the carriers promoting incentives for trade-ins and upgrades, long-term, the XR is slated to do very well. The XS Max is for those who truly want the top of the line iPhone, but will not meet every day consumers needs because of the price.

 

[FFR]

View attachment 799353

By the statistical data taken. Then after the sales report they come up with numbers. Since Apple stopped giving opening weekend sales numbers all we have is data and guessing. But they make really good guess’s. And some from supply chain insiders..

The 9 million number was given by Rosenblatt Securities' Jun Zhang.
[doublepost=1540855934][/doublepost]


If you think about it, the 6s/6s+ had 13 mil opening weekend sales. If you add the XR with XS/XSMax that’s 19 mill opening weekend. That’s a huge opening weekend. Granted they did add one more model compared to 2 with the 6s/6s+

That doesn’t make much sense, your article seems to be basing their numbers on a marketing platform that only has 1.4 billion android and iOS devices and 20,000 local and web apps.

That’s absolutely minuscule when you consider apple and android have over 3 billion devices and 3.6 million apps between them.

Once more the article you posted listed a marketing platform called Localytics measuring only 20,000 native and web apps combined vs over 3.6 million native apps on iOS and android (not counting web apps) to blindly estimate device sales.

As another poster also mentioned last year analysts using the supply chain and Localytics kept incorrectly asserting that the x was not selling, until they admitted they were wrong.

Another year another launch more of the same.

 

[Zimmy68]

As someone that loves to poke fun at the iPhone XRegular, I don't think first week sales mean a whole lot.
Over time, it will be the bigger seller by a long shot.
That will be the phone parents will by for their kids and companies will buy for their employees if they are an iPhone shop.

 

[HoosBruce]

Putting a 720p 320 PPI screen in a phone in 2018 is a big rip off. Android cheap phone even have 1080p screens.

Watch EVERYONE pick the iPhone XR over a 1080p Screen

This post aged well...

 

[ftaok]

View attachment 799353

By the statistical data taken. Then after the sales report they come up with numbers. Since Apple stopped giving opening weekend sales numbers all we have is data and guessing. But they make really good guess’s. And some from supply chain insiders..

The 9 million number was given by Rosenblatt Securities' Jun Zhang.
[doublepost=1540855934][/doublepost]

So really it's just a guess by Rosenblatt Securities. And very suspect data.

The Xr is probably selling just fine and right inline with Apple's expectations. They've been doing this for 10 years ... I think they have a pretty good handle of estimating demand of each of their devices.

 

[Garemlin]

Putting a 720p 320 PPI screen in a phone in 2018 is a big rip off. Android cheap phone even have 1080p screens.

There is a huge difference between a high quality 720p display (the XR is a little higher) and a low quality 1080p display. Same as there is a huge difference between an 8mp camera with a high quality sensor and a 12mp camera with a junk sensor.

People get so wrapped up in numbers instead of letting their own eyes make an educated decision.

 

[tt061282]

https://gadgets.ndtv.com/mobiles/news/iphone-xr-sales-9-million-units-weak-1939928

This is where the iPhone XR first weekend sales are “projected”. Also states that iPhone XS and XS Max sold 10 million opening weekend. If this is the case that would mean the 3 new models sold 19 million units on opening weekend ... which is an improvement I believe.

 

[predation]

Ya that’s what I was getting at. But 50% of iPhone sales for the year. I doubt that, 35%-40%. I just think everybody is over estimating. Thing feels like a toy and I can’t take a portrait mode pic of my SANDWHICH! Nobody buy it!!!!! Lol

#sandwichlivesmatter

 

[Shanghaichica]

There is a huge difference between a high quality 720p display (the XR is a little higher) and a low quality 1080p display. Same as there is a huge difference between an 8mp camera with a high quality sensor and a 12mp camera with a junk sensor.

People get so wrapped up in numbers instead of letting their own eyes make an educated decision.

Why couldn’t Apple have put a high quality 1080p display in the Xr.

 

[Garemlin]

Why couldn’t Apple have put a high quality 1080p display in the Xr.

Because in reality it probably would not make much of a difference. And would have raised the cost. And any number of reasons we will never know.

Look at all of the positive feedback there is on the display. The majority of the people say the display looks great. And they aren't missing anything with it not being 1080p. I put mine side by side with my Pixel 2 XL and could not see any major difference.

And speaking for myself when I watch videos on my phone I set it to 480p simply because raising the resolution does nothing to enhance my viewing experience on a 6" screen.

 

[Newtons Apple]

Short term sales are not an indicator of how well the XR will sell. Apple is counting on the holiday season and a good part of 2019 . . they will sell a boat load and it should be one of their best selling devices, just for the price.

 

[Shanghaichica]

Because in reality it probably would not make much of a difference. And would have raised the cost. And any number of reasons we will never know.

Look at all of the positive feedback there is on the display. The majority of the people say the display looks great. And they aren't missing anything with it not being 1080p. I put mine side by side with my Pixel 2 XL and could not see any major difference.

And speaking for myself when I watch videos on my phone I set it to 480p simply because raising the resolution does nothing to enhance my viewing experience on a 6" screen.

The pixel 2 XL has a terrible display.

 

[Garemlin]

The pixel 2 XL has a terrible display.

Which solidifies my point that there is a huge difference between a high quality lower res panel a a lower quality higher res panel.

 

[Renho]

So really it's just a guess by Rosenblatt Securities. And very suspect data.

The Xr is probably selling just fine and right inline with Apple's expectations. They've been doing this for 10 years ... I think they have a pretty good handle of estimating demand of each of their devices.

A good guess and inside into supply chains. So they will know if production is reduced.
[doublepost=1540913554][/doublepost]

Short term sales are not an indicator of how well the XR will sell. Apple is counting on the holiday season and a good part of 2019 . . they will sell a boat load and it should be one of their best selling devices, just for the price.

Opening weekend sales are a good indicator of how well it will do, in some cases. Selling 10 mil in 3 days is a huge deal compared to yearly totals. Selling 3 mill in first weekend would definitely make the yearly total different.
[doublepost=1540913700][/doublepost]

Because in reality it probably would not make much of a difference. And would have raised the cost. And any number of reasons we will never know.

Look at all of the positive feedback there is on the display. The majority of the people say the display looks great. And they aren't missing anything with it not being 1080p. I put mine side by side with my Pixel 2 XL and could not see any major difference.

And speaking for myself when I watch videos on my phone I set it to 480p simply because raising the resolution does nothing to enhance my viewing experience on a 6" screen.

In 2018 1080p screens are almost standard. Going back in time tech is kinda a big difference for still paying over $800

 

[FFR]

A good guess and inside into supply chains. So they will know if production is reduced.
[doublepost=1540913554][/doublepost]

Opening weekend sales are a good indicator of how well it will do, in some cases. Selling 10 mil in 3 days is a huge deal compared to yearly totals. Selling 3 mill in first weekend would definitely make the yearly total different.
[doublepost=1540913700][/doublepost]

In 2018 1080p screens are almost standard. Going back in time tech is kinda a big difference for still paying over $800

As was pointed out to you, using localytics as a supply chain indicator is not a good guess into the supply chain.

That is simply not true. As is the case with Samsung and the note 9/galaxy s9 opening weekend sales. Sales trailed off after the opening weekend and now both the s9 and the note 9 are considered to be failures due to a lack of demand or overpriced for mediocre hardware.

Again not a good indication.

In 2018, during a blind test consumers preferred a the Xr’s 828p display to a 1080p panel. Don’t take my word for it, the video is posted above.

 

[Garemlin]

A good guess and inside into supply chains. So they will know if production is reduced.
[doublepost=1540913554][/doublepost]

Opening weekend sales are a good indicator of how well it will do, in some cases. Selling 10 mil in 3 days is a huge deal compared to yearly totals. Selling 3 mill in first weekend would definitely make the yearly total different.
[doublepost=1540913700][/doublepost]

In 2018 1080p screens are almost standard. Going back in time tech is kinda a big difference for still paying over $800

If it was a crappy display panel I would agree. But it isn't. 1080p is just a number. I have seen 720p TVs that look a hundred times better than some 4k sets. It's all about how they are made and calibrated.

 

[PeteS1963]

Why couldn’t Apple have put a high quality 1080p display in the Xr.

Probably because the new 0.3t LED chips that were developed for the reduced bezel LCD of the iPhone XR (I think it’s a first - I can’t see any other LCD screen with such small bezels) can not yet drive a 1080p display. Maybe next year.

 

[Renho]

As was pointed out to you, using localytics as a supply chain indicator is not a good guess into the supply chain.

That is simply not true. As is the case with Samsung and the note 9/galaxy s9 opening weekend sales. Sales trailed off after the opening weekend and now both the s9 and the note 9 are considered to be failures due to a lack of demand or overpriced for mediocre hardware.

Again not a good indication.

In 2018, during a blind test consumers preferred a the Xr’s 828p display to a 1080p panel. Don’t take my word for it, the video is posted above.

Again in “some Cases” it is. Data and Apple sales calls puts it all Into perspective. Again they are good guesses but guesss non the less. It can tell us how popular it is and it can’t.

in 2018, going backwards in tech devices and still charging a premium is a rip off. But then again we are all getting ripped off. $750 compared to $1000 is not that big of a difference, if you have $750 I’m sure you can get $1000
[doublepost=1540941643][/doublepost]

If it was a crappy display panel I would agree. But it isn't. 1080p is just a number. I have seen 720p TVs that look a hundred times better than some 4k sets. It's all about how they are made and calibrated.

True, but then again. I don’t want a keyed entry car in a 2019 model when keyless is the new way of doing things..

 

[FFR]

Again in “some Cases” it is. Data and Apple sales calls puts it all Into perspective. Again they are good guesses but guesss non the less. It can tell us how popular it is and it can’t.

in 2018, going backwards in tech devices and still charging a premium is a rip off. But then again we are all getting ripped off. $750 compared to $1000 is not that big of a difference, if you have $750 I’m sure you can get $1000
[doublepost=1540941643][/doublepost]

True, but then again. I don’t want a keyed entry car in a 2019 model when keyless is the new way of doing things..

Actually in this specific case it isn’t. Look at my previous posts to see why.

Doesn’t seem to be the case here either; 7nm processor, 8core npu, edge to edge flat display without a chin or forehead, nvme storage, Dolby vision, 4K @60 fps, best stereo speakers, etc etc.
Even with a an 828p display the xr outperforms Other 1080p panels, as the video posted Bové clearly shows.

If you really feel ripped off no idea why you actually bought yourself an iPhone Xs, but different strokes for different folks.

 

[PeteS1963]

Again in “some Cases” it is. Data and Apple sales calls puts it all Into perspective. Again they are good guesses but guesss non the less. It can tell us how popular it is and it can’t.

in 2018, going backwards in tech devices and still charging a premium is a rip off. But then again we are all getting ripped off. $750 compared to $1000 is not that big of a difference, if you have $750 I’m sure you can get $1000

I paid for my XR in full. I can obviously afford $1000 especially on contract. But for me I think that the XS and Max are too much for a phone. I have a red line of around £800 that I refuse to cross.

I have a friend who earns over £100,000 per year. She just bought a £40,000 car and has a 5 bedroom house in London. She still has an iPhone 6. I asked her why she hasn’t upgraded yet. She told me that she’ll get an XR but that the X/XS/MAX were all
A rip-off and that only fools and idiots would pay that much for a phone - her words not mine. But I think that there are a lot of people like that.

 

[Renho]

Actually in this specific case it isn’t. Look at my precious posts to see why.

Doesn’t seem to be the case here either; 7nm processor, 8core npu, edge to edge flat display without a chin or forehead, nvme storage, Dolby vision, 4K @60 fps, best stereo speakers, etc etc.
Even with a an 828p display the xr outperforms Other 1080p panels, as the video posted Bové clearly shows.

If you really feel ripped off no idea why you actually bought yourself an iPhone Xs, but different strokes for different folks.

The XR doesn’t outperform other 1080p displays, it’s all BS. They use software and calibrating to make it seem better than it actually is. Did you know that Apple secretly owns Geekbench..
[doublepost=1540954365][/doublepost]

I paid for my XR in full. I can obviously afford $1000 especially on contract. But for me I think that the XS and Max are too much for a phone. I have a red line of around £800 that I refuse to cross.

I have a friend who earns over £100,000 per year. She just bought a £40,000 car and has a 5 bedroom house in London. She still has an iPhone 6. I asked her why she hasn’t upgraded yet. She told me that she’ll get an XR but that the X/XS/MAX were all
A rip-off and that only fools and idiots would pay that much for a phone - her words not mine. But I think that there are a lot of people like that.

There are not a lot of people that make 100k per year using Ip6’s. haha she just doesn’t care about the tech part of her life. I bet she spends thousands on hair, makeup, nails and plastic surgery! Lol

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I paid for my XR in full. I can obviously afford $1000 especially on contract. But for me I think that the XS and Max are too much for a phone. I have a red line of around £800 that I refuse to cross.

I have a friend who earns over £100,000 per year. She just bought a £40,000 car and has a 5 bedroom house in London. She still has an iPhone 6. I asked her why she hasn’t upgraded yet. She told me that she’ll get an XR but that the X/XS/MAX were all
A rip-off and that only fools and idiots would pay that much for a phone - her words not mine. But I think that there are a lot of people like that.

The guy who owns the company I work for has a personal worth of €100m and he uses an iPhone 7+ lol. Not everybody is in to tech or uses it to give a false status I find.