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Thoughts

Zune is suffering from doing too much too soon. With Vista launch, Zune launch and its music server and its current track of forming partnerships just to cut vendors and customers off, the future looks bleak.

When Apple started, they paid attention to its customers offering iTunes first. As customer grew to like iTunes as a music library, Apple intorduced iPod. "You already have it on your system, now take it with you." Over the years, Apple grew its interest, and improved the software along withi its hardware.

I aggree with other posters in a vairety of forums that most will take a "wait and see" with Zune. Toom much coming at their customer base.
 
And to make things worse, there is no "Jobs" waiting on the wings to salvage Microsoft from itself, and that will be the sole reason why they won't last long (would've Apple had, if not for Steve and NeXT?)...

As for buying clues, sure! Maybe they'll hire someone from outside. But naaah, they're too proud to change their ways, I guess...

I agree with almost everything you wrote (you're a pretty smart guy!) but offer two comments:

1 - We don't know there isn't a Jobs waiting in the wings. We also don't know there isn't a Jobs in the #2 spot at some Fortune 50 company who could be in a MS executive suite in 3 years.

2 - MS being "too proud" is exactly the kind of thing I mean when I write about not being able to predict the post-Bill future. He is certainly too proud but who knows about Bill 2.0?

You make the point about the rank-and-file being mostly very talented and I agree. If MS gets executives who stay out of the way who knows what Zune 3.0 will be like?
 
...here is a link to the CNN review of the zune.
It's funny when Soledad asks if it can do email. She might have thought so because of its size compared with the Blackberry. And then she whips out the shuffle... OMG that is classic.

Does anyone remember Soledad in a kid's computer TV show some years back? She played a computer....
 
I would argue, that MS success isn't because of it's OS, it's because of third party support.

Take Windows. It's horrible, but too many companies have too much software invested in Windows software.
Take the XBox, the X box was built on DirectX, which made it much easier to program than the PS2. So third party companies could program for the XBox.

The Zune is from scratch, no third party companies to help push it. No corprate ITs to demand you buy it and use it.

The Zune is what Microsoft is without its monopoly.
 
Friend of mine at work bought the Zune. First thing that hit me was the "poop" brown color - uck. It had a rubbery feel (guess it won't slip from your hands) like the protectors you can get for the ipod. Was hard to get in and out of my back pocket due to the coating and brick thickness.

I like that it played your videos landscape, though navagation became tricky.

For all its bells and whistles I wouldn't buy it. Design matters. If it didn't i'd still be using my anti skip cd- mp3 player. I own a nano and have had every generation ipod except the first and the zune seems like the 1st generation ipod in respect to design and clunkiness. Microsoft should stick with the xbox
 
An interesting, funny review by Andy Ihnatko

Here's a great review by Chicago Sun Times writer Andy Ihnatko. Aside from being quiet humorous, it brings up some points about the Zune I hadn't known. The article starts out this way...

Avoid the loony Zune

November 23, 2006
BY ANDY IHNATKO
Yes, Microsoft's new Zune digital music player is just plain dreadful. I've spent a week setting this thing up and using it, and the overall experience is about as pleasant as having an airbag deploy in your face.

Read the article here: http://www.suntimes.com/technology/ihnatko/147048,CST-FIN-Andy23.article
 
I agree with almost everything you wrote (you're a pretty smart guy!) but offer two comments:

1 - We don't know there isn't a Jobs waiting in the wings. We also don't know there isn't a Jobs in the #2 spot at some Fortune 50 company who could be in a MS executive suite in 3 years.

2 - MS being "too proud" is exactly the kind of thing I mean when I write about not being able to predict the post-Bill future. He is certainly too proud but who knows about Bill 2.0?

You make the point about the rank-and-file being mostly very talented and I agree. If MS gets executives who stay out of the way who knows what Zune 3.0 will be like?

Why, thanks! English isn't even my native language... And I'm not a long-time Apple user either. But I suppose three years worth of using Macs and hangin' around MacRumors:Forums also helped, as did reading a lot (well, way too much, really) about the computer industry's history! 😛

Your points are, of course, fairly good. But this is just a clear example of me playing the role of the "ominous wishful thinker", and you that of the "devil's advocate". So I surely hope I'm right in my predictions; even though I know competition is a good thing, arguing that competition from Microsoft could possibly be a "good" thing is nothing short of an oxymoron (I'm not saying that's your opinion. The problem is, if it's you who turns out to be right, that's what the Zune will become: competition! 😛 ). Let's hope that some worthy competitors, both on the cosumer electronics and the PC hardware/software/operating systems, OTHER than Microsoft emerge to give Apple some eventually needed "kicks in the butt", so they don't become lazy. 😉

'Course, if Microsoft could, hypothetically, stop being such an evil company, I'd certainly overlook their shady past and could even, Jobs forbid!, use some of their products (provided they'd be up to my typical Mac User's standards 🙄 ). 😀
 
Originally Posted by stcanard
Beta
MiniDisc
Memory Stick
ATRAC
PSone & PS2?
HandyCam?

I think you're missing my point, but maybe I didn't explain it well enough.

Yes, the PSone, PS2, and HandyCam are succesful items that probably make money as one of the many entries in the field. As are Sony TV's, speakers, etc.

But they fail at the one thing Sony has been repeatedly trying to do, what Microsoft always tries to do, and what Microsoft is trying to do with the XBox and the Zune -- become the one runaway standard that everybody uses and becomed synonymous with the market.

Think Walkman and iPod. Think IE (until recently, when firefox has finally started to come back) -- Beta, MiniDisk, Memory Sticks, ATRAC were all attempts to repeat this, and have failed miserably. Blu-Ray is an attempt as well, and I'm not holding my breath.

Sony is showing that they are now completely incapable of creating that single iconic product ever again, and have been for some time. The post I was responding to was comparing Microsoft to Sony's marketing, which I don't think is positive, from that point of view.
 
A little experiment

Saw this thread, read about various people's encounters with stores selling (or rather NOT selling) Zunes, and decided to check it out for myself after work. I figure "maybe some people are exaggerating their experiences?" I'll try and give the Zune the benefit of the doubt.

I go into the local Best Buy. I ask the "greeter" at the door if they have the new Zune in. She had heard of it, but she didn't know what the stock was and forwarded me onto "Jon" back in the mp3 player area.

I asked Jon if they had the new Zune. "We HAD it in stock, but I know we just ran out I can place an order for you, have it here in a couple of days!"

I was impressed. None of the instant badmouthing I'd come to expect. Untill...

"But if you don't want to wait, we've got a lot of iPods and nanos in. I'd say your best bet is to get an iPod."

I asked why, and soon learned that the store got a shipment of 8 Zunes. 4 were sold, one of which was returned that same day. 2 were put out on display, and since their introduction, they've broken and have been replaced by the two remaining Zunes in stock.

Jon seemed almost too knowledgable. He wasn't a Microsoft shill, and I could tell he wasn't a Rah-rah! Applephile. He just knew that it was a very problematic piece of hardware, pointing out the dishonest advertising of wi-fi, the odd pricing scheme at the store, and some ways to get around the repeated failures of the Zune music store software installation.

His opinion? "A good idea, but they rushed it to get it out before Christmas. They should have waited 6 months and worked the bugs out."
 
Perhaps Microsoft should have a "switch" campaign like Apple for the Zune. Showing all the wonderful things like radio and squirting music and photos.

Radio, puhleeze. Isn't that why we have iPods? So we don't have to listen to crappy repetitive manufactured artist radio.

Squirting, huh? - I'll coin the term now. Zune Splooge™ - squirting a crappy song to my Zune.
 
Repeat after me:

The monopoly is not Windows. The monopoly is MS Word.

Word? Word's being replaced more and more by e-mail. I used to type my notes in GMail and sometimes I write essays in GMail and just copy it over to Word for formatting. AutoSave and anywhere recall is handy.

Excel on the other hand... Google and Apple are lagging there. Google Docs & Spreadsheets are still very slow, and a bit counter-intuitive.
 
Word? Word's being replaced more and more by e-mail. I used to type my notes in GMail and sometimes I write essays in GMail

You might, but most businesses don't. Look at how many job applications require resumes in MS Word format. Its not the simple letters and essays that are the issue (especially with OOo being so good on import/export) but the complicated documents that come out of managers and product managers. With a resume I ceratainly don't want to risk that their version of word isn't quite compatible with my OOo export, but that's why I send it in PDF since I don't even trust Word.

and just copy it over to Word for formatting. AutoSave and anywhere recall is handy.

Bingo! So you do use Word. You just like to pretend you don't. (Any reason why TextEdit doesn't do enough formatting? Or Neo / OOo?)

Just about every person I know who runs Windows, when asked, says they need Word. Of course that is a great opportunity to point out they could get a Mac, and also demo NeoOffice.

I don't know anyone who runs Windows because they want to -- it is always that it came with the computer and they need Word (even if they don't, but that's a story for another day).

This, of course, is the uphill battle MS is now going to fight (to come back onto topic)

"This Zune looks nice, does it run on iTunes?"
 
It's funny when Soledad asks if it can do email. She might have thought so because of its size compared with the Blackberry. And then she whips out the shuffle... OMG that is classic.

Does anyone remember Soledad in a kid's computer TV show some years back? She played a computer....


I love how the guy presenting the Zune was speechless after Soledad brings out her shuffle.😀
 
'Course, if Microsoft could, hypothetically, stop being such an evil company, I'd certainly overlook their shady past and could even, Jobs forbid!, use some of their products (provided they'd be up to my typical Mac User's standards 🙄 ). 😀

"Jobs forbid" - funny

Yes, their EQ (Evil Quotient) may change over time as might their global strategy. We won't know until we know, ya know?

If in 1960 you told me the day would come when IBM wouldn't make a ton of money leasing card sorters I'd have been sceptical. (many called them evil for refusing to sell card readers to companies while charging the fair market value many times over on long-term leases) If in 1990 I had told you the day would come when IBM wouldn't be in the PC business you might have been sceptical. I, a dyed in the wool Apple fan, wouldn't have predicted Apple's success 10 years ago. MS has the money and worker-bee brains to stay in any game they choose to play. They should be ashamed of the Zune and I don't understand why they rushed it to market but I don't think it's a slam-dunk that it, and they, are doomed for the trashbin of corporate history.

I wouldn't mind being wrong in the least.
 
iPod -> White but NOT NERDY..

zune people don't seem to agree what it is bad. they just deny the true. here what they are ridiculous.

http://www.zunescene.com/forums/index.php?topic=3784.0

I consider myself more a creative person, as I've been into photography since junior high in the seventies. The whole computer geekish stuff is more a passing interest, rather than a lifestyle (I really like sci-fi, but like a lot of other movies too).

When I use my old 12" iBook G3, or my 14" iBook G4 in public, I usually get - wow, cool.

When I use my Dell from work, or my Compaq laptop, people look at me as nerdy (they come up and ask if I could help them connect to the network).

I'm tempted to go onto the above Zune website and hold a contest to see who has the best post as far as Zune being better than an iPod....

Then, gift the winner "White and Nerdy" video from Wierd Al...

Oh wait, Zune Marketplace doesn't do music videos, and the Zune won't play iTunes Store music videos either...
 
I know someone brought it up earlier, but XBOX people, XBOX. When the XBOX first came out, people said it was too big, that they didn't know what they were doing, that they would fail, and it had a pretty, ok very rocky start. And now the XBOX 360 looks like it may very well dominate this generation.....

Same with zune, it's to big, I've seen it, and it is too big, it's thick. But, it's pretty stylish, in a rusticish kinda way, and it has a very nice screen, the UI is decent, not great but decent. By the time they release Zune 360, it will have 30%+ of the market, it will be smaller, more powerful, and giving the ipod serious competition. The thing that people seem to forget is MS doesn't fail, and won't accept failure, they have decided to enter the MP3 player market, and won't leave no matter how much it costs them in losses, until they make it profitable, the XBOX 360 will just start to turn a tiny profit in a couple of months, the XBOX, I'm not sure if it ever was profitable, I believe they said from the beginning that they didn't care if it ever was. With billions of dollars to throw around, and Vista about to come out, which, lets face it, is going to be a license to print money, sinking a couple billion in to zune is not even something that will cross their mind as a bad idea. I'm sure that this first zune was to get the name out there, and announce their presence, much the same way the XBOX was there to announce their presence, get their feet wet, and learn enough to make the next one.

I own a ipod, my last mp3 player was a ipod, and the one before that was a ipod as well, and if apple is afraid of competition, then it's about time for some.

Laugh at it now, because it may be your last chance.
 
I have no idea where you got that one from. The original Xbox never made a profit. Microsoft is deliberately selling the Xbox 360 at a loss to capture marketshare. However, the PS3 and Ninetindo Wii are selling like hotcakes, are latest big things, and have the buzz. The best laid plans ...

I think the first statement is correct or close to it. They may have had a single profitable quarter when Halo 2 was released. I'm not sure because they bury games in a Microsoft Entertainment and Devices Division. Which includes their smartphone stuff (now that it has stopped bleeding money) and their profitable and acclaimed mice, keyboards, and other stuff (all manufactured by other companies, sort of like Dell, but with a nicer design).

The second part I believe is now wrong. I think the XBox 360 is no longer a loss lead, though that might change as there is some speculation that they will be dropping the price to undercut Sony soon. I believe the fact that it is no longer a loss lead is causing a confounding with the "360 is profitable" commentaries here.

Another commenter mentioned how smart it was was the XBox had a hard drive on it. I’d say if it is so smart why did Microsoft remove it in the base model 360? I’ll point out that this happened because the price of hard drives do not get any cheaper! In fact the price of commodity hardware design doesn’t get any cheaper! Huh? Hard drives get bigger, not cheaper. Processors and chips get more powerful, not cheaper.

What went on is that successive iterations of the Playstation and Playstation 2 would allow Sony to combine chips to reduce the price (and make smaller PSOne and slim-cased Playstation 2). This outlet wasn't available to Microsoft because of their design which is why the XBox was a losing money for it's entire run and Sony played games by dropping their price before it ever turned a profit.

Those two things are "of a piece". While commodity hardware was an interesting idea, it was a failure. Which is why the XBox 360 is not built from commodity PC hardware. The hard drives are a necessary evil of the "Live" strategy so they're left in as an option and bundled with the Playstation 3. That's why these 6G consoles are expensive and not dropping in price fast.

Right now all this is moot since the thing to watch is the Sony gamble on a blue laser. Obviously it will get cheaper fast, but the question is how fast and how cheap? The horrible yields on the Cell processor isn't helping things.

Currently, the XBox 360 has sold very consistently at around 1.5 million units a quarter. The XMas quarter last year had supply issues and only sold .9 million units. That's hardly dominating. In fact, I think the Playstation 2 outsold the 360 in each of those quarters even though the device is six years old. Let's put some numbers here. Last year over 100 million Playstation 2’s had been sold, six months ago, they were selling 380k/month. The XBox 360 sold 6 million units since it's introduction over a year ago, six months ago they were selling 300k/month, they had fixed the channel problems that plagued the release.

Consider this: Nintendo sold 600,000 Wiis in the last eight days. Given the scarcity of the Playstation 3 and the popularity and addictiveness of WiiSports and Zelda, they should easily crush that .9 million opening quarter of the 360. And consider this: each unit at a profit with a number of titles putting money directly in Nintendo's pocket.

I'm not claiming that the Wii will beat the 360. I'm just pointing out that according to sales numbers, the 360 is no iPod, is not trending to an iPod, will never be an iPod. The iPod sits on 75% market share. The closest thing to an iPod in the entertainment market is the Playstation 2.

Which is a big distraction from the point. And what is the point? That the XBox is a bad analogy. It is best to consider their Windows CE->Smartphone Microsoft play to see that the Zune is a bad idea. How many years and failed ideas have there been (Windows CE, Windows Mobile, PocketPC, etc. etc.)? How many billions sunk (some years more than the entire capitalization of the PDA market)? How much marketshare? 6% of smartphones, 60% of the dead-end PDA market, and most of the dead ATM teller market (because IBM did a phased pull out, not because Microsoft "won"). And even those markets are being eaten by Linux faster than Windows.

The only thing we can learn from the XBox and Microsoft is that Microsoft pees on their partners (NVidia) at the earliest opportunity. But we already knew that as soon as the Zune didn't support Plays For Sure.
 
this is a bigger world

in five years neither the iPod nor the Zune will have any significance. The hardware market will be dominated by Samsung and distribution by walmart.

Samsung is becoming the most dominant consumer electronics company in the world: from LCD TVs to cell phones, to camcorders, to MP3 players. in 2006 they will have sold 150 million phones, growing much faster than Nokia and Motorola. Their camcorder business is just picking off with megapixel camcorders priced below $300. They are just now getting to be serious about the MP3 market. The YP-Z5 would have been one of the top players, had they decided to be agressive on pricing, however for some reason it's held very high selling prices throut the world. Now watch for the YP-T9, it will outsell iPod nano in 2007. It is ridiculously loaded with features and is much better priced than the Z5s.

Walmart controls 40% of DVD distribution. If the DVD goes the way of the music CD, they are not going to let this market slip away from them. They have just started selling digital downloads and have much more clout with content companies than either Microsoft or Apple.

Amazon.com rankings offer extremely limited view of the world. They are only USA, plus research shows that it is the preferred vendor for highly sophisticated users. The world is much bigger. Creative Zen Nano is #1 electronics seller at Amazon.fr and Amazon.de (France and Germany) you can check it out. Creative is not a powerhouse, though. Watch out for Samsung to start ramping up the YP-T9s next year and blow everyone out of the water. As it is now, they are on backorder and sold out at many outlets... Plus Samsung's music phones will far outsell the Iphone...
 
Which is a big distraction from the point? And what is the point? That the XBox is a bad analogy. It is best to consider their Windows CE->Smartphone one to see that the Zune is a bad idea. The only thing we can learn from the XBox and Microsoft is that Microsoft pees on their partners (NVidia) at the earliest opportunity. But we already knew that as soon as the Zune didn't support Plays For Sure.


MS never made a smartphone, they make the windows mobile software that runs on others hardware. The xbox is ms hardware and software, just like the zune. It's a entertainment market, just like the xbox, windows mobile software isn't in the entertainment market. There are far more direct comparisons between zune and xbox than between windows mobile and zune. As for peeing on their partners, what's new, I think we all know they don't play nice, instead they play to win.
 
zune people don't seem to agree what it is bad. they just deny the true. here what they are ridiculous.

http://www.zunescene.com/forums/index.php?topic=3784.0

I have to admitt that was great to read, there are so many PC bashing thugs out there who know nothing about anything outside the realm of Microsoft bliss.

I like to think of myself as a fairly balanced PC and Apple person but the comments in that Zune site were just plain idiotic from the "Windows" people, their arguments wouldn't hold water.

The BIG Zune over iPod sales pitch I am hearing more and more is the "but Zune has a radio and wireless and it works with Windows".

Newsflash morons the iPod works with BOTH Windows and Mac OSX, a radio who really cares the reason I bought an iPod was so that I didn't have to listen to the stupid radio, and wireless I guess that would be nice..... wait you still need to plug the dam thing in the charge it.

Personally I am glad people aren't buying the Zune becuase it means that there aren't nearly as many brain dead people out there as I originally thought.

The reality of the effort with the Zune is that it is too little too late and a poor interpretation of an iPod...... Zune it's fugly
 
MS never made a smartphone, they make the windows mobile software that runs on others hardware. The xbox is ms hardware and software, just like the zune. It's a entertainment market, just like the xbox, windows mobile software isn't in the entertainment market. There are far more direct comparisons between zune and xbox than between windows mobile and zune. As for peeing on their partners, what's new, I think we all know they don't play nice, instead they play to win.

So. Microsoft’s mouse market share is so large that everyone is Logitech is peeing their pants? How about Microsoft’s total dominance of the Apple ][+ CPM card market?

Give me a break. Show me one area where Microsoft’s hardware has lead to a market share the size of iPod’s hold on MP3 players? I can’t think of a single one, can you?

But I can think of a lot of software plays: Windows, Office, Visual Studio, Project/Visio. I can think of some moderate successes: Windows CE in embedded space, Xbox 360. As well as a lot of failures: Tablet PC, Pocket PC, Windows Mobile, UPMC, Windows Media Center, Plays For Sure, Xbox.

See, unlike your narrow minded Microsoft fanboy-ism, I realize that the iPod dominance rests under three legs: iTunes, iTunes Music Store, and the iPod. Over the last five(!) years, Microsoft has used canon fodder to attack the latter two while it provided the first and the DRM for the second. Now the Zune is a direct attack, because two people at the top of Microsoft are jealous that after all these years QuickTime is still alive and well. They remember when they told Avi and Jobs to "knife the baby" and it’s really a thorn when they, the most profitable tech company in history, can’t back up that threat with action.

But until Microsoft wipes out Samsung and Creative, I think the burden of proof is on you. I pretty much destroyed your “Xbox is the shiznit” crap: it is, in no way, trending to dominate the market, and it won't even stop bleeding money until 2Q 2007. They’re just hoping Sony stumbles (which they are, but it looks like Nintendo is the primary recipient of Sony’s largess).

Do you think it is a coincidence that the partner that Microsoft tapped to launch the Zune (Toshiba) was the only major player with less that 2% of the market? And while we are on the topic. Why the hell is Microsoft introducing a hard drive player when the units that Apple is selling and having trouble stocking are flash-based?

[I made a tiny error. Xbox sold 1.6 million units its launch quarter. They sold .9 million units last quarter. I got those two quarters confused.]
 
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