You nailed this part about the watch being enabled for purchases until it's taken off again.
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Jony Ive On iWatch: Switzerland is in Trouble
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You nailed this part about the watch being enabled for purchases until it's taken off again.
Congrats!
Nope, but I do predict the odds of you moving out of your parents basement as... doubtful.
I also predict that Apple's 2015 Q1 and Q2 results will be record quarters - mostly on the strength of the iPhone 6 and 6+. The Watch will ramp up from reasonable sales to a significant part of their earnings within two years - but more importantly will play a big part in the Apple eco-system that fuels the sales of more phones and services.
Around that point you'll start to hear some noise from high end watch makers that they are having trouble competing with all the features (health, purchasing, communication, etc.) Apple's watch is delivering. They'll start their slide and in five years their sales will be maybe 25% of what they are now.
Laugh all you want - many have before you. Where are they now?
What about in the 70's at the height of the quartz revolution? The ones that said mechanical watches are dead? Where are they now?
Enjoy paying $350+ every year or two to keep up with the latest tech. My 80's vintage Submariner will outlast a smart watch made today. Think about that.
First off... how about you dial the rhetoric back a touch? It's not helping this discussion.
I read the article you linked to already this afternoon. It was on Daring Fireball. The author swoons over the build quality of both the body of the watch and the bands/straps.
Intestinally enough his conclusions contain this gem...
So - according to this expert, Apple's watch is absolutely competition for high end watches years down the road and a serious threat to those less faithful to analogue watches today.
Thanks for proving my point.
To be fair that was before the days of smart phones and now smart watches. All they did was tell you the same things a mechanical watch did but with little glowing numbers.
For telling the time and looking sweet your Submariner will indeed last a lifetime. It's a beautiful watch.
My point is ask your submariner what your pulse is, when your next appointment is, to see your last few emails, direction to some place, get info from Siri, communicate with someone in a different place on this planet, pay for something... and you'll get nothing.
When you get used to all of that on your wrist you may never want to wear something else. At least that's what I think will happen. Time will tell.
Jony Ive On iWatch: Switzerland is in Trouble
I know he's not exactly unbiased but Jean Claude Biver just called the Apple Watch something that looks like it was designed by a student.
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To be fair, I guess it could reduce the sales of even high end watches in the 10-20k category by a little bit.
It could affect the Rplex category a little bit more.
But as long as humans value fashion and luxury, the high end watch companies will survive, just as the Prius and even Tesla Model S will not make Ferraris extinct.
I know he's not exactly unbiased but Jean Claude Biver just called the Apple Watch something that looks like it was designed by a student.
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To be fair, I guess it could reduce the sales of even high end watches in the 10-20k category by a little bit.
It could affect the Rplex category a little bit more.
But as long as humans value fashion and luxury, the high end watch companies will survive, just as the Prius and even Tesla Model S will not make Ferraris extinct.
When the Swiss watch industry had to lay off 60,000 workers? Sounds like that was an industry in trouble back then.
More trouble would be 20% layoffs over the next few years, with the smartwatch impact on unit volume.
Rolex isn't going to abandon the oyster perpetual because of this. Completely different markets. Generational time piece against a "watch" that is outdated in 12 months.
Yap, they are really scared
Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan? Ballmer chuckles in the way that only Ballmer chuckles. That is the most expensive phone in the world. And it doesnt appeal to business customers because it doesnt have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine.
If you're still repeating the same comparison about the iPhone then you're more lost than you already show.
I think it's an apt comparison and works quite well. Tell me how this doesn't sound like what's going on with watches right now...
- Cell phones were around for a long time before the 'smart phone'.
- The few companies that came out with the first smart phones grew a nice business.
- Apple launches a far more elegant, well thought out and highly invested solution to the space.
- Many people criticize it and point out how the incumbents are not at all worried.
- The incumbents suffer greatly and everyone says in hindsight how obvious Apples solutions was.
- Companies copy Apple's solution.
I could also use the same comparison for MP3 players and netbooks.
Here's a great link to read... http://www.loopinsight.com/2014/09/10/comments-on-apple-newest-digital-device/
So - explain to me how I'm lost exacltly?
The long term threat the swiss face isn't aesthetics, quality, longevity or even fashion.
Its real estate
For a hundred years or so the best we've come up with to fill the wasteland between hand and elbow is something that tells you the time.
You can think of the current crop of smart watches as early scouting parties; woefully short on provisions, no real threat to the natives and unlikely to survive. ..But with a railway coming up behind them three or 4 generations down the line.
Once they establish the true value of that space, single function devices will have a much harder time justifying their continued occupation of it.
Its real estate
For a hundred years or so the best we've come up with to fill the wasteland between hand and elbow is something that tells you the time.
You can think of the current crop of smart watches as early scouting parties; woefully short on provisions, no real threat to the natives and unlikely to survive. ..But with a railway coming up behind them three or 4 generations down the line.
Once they establish the true value of that space, single function devices will have a much harder time justifying their continued occupation of it.
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It's interesting to read the original German de Welt article, with Biver's section translated into English here by Google:
He warns: "One should never underestimate a newcomer." Nevertheless, he goes hard with the Apple clock to task: "You make a few basic mistakes. The clock has no sex appeal. It is far too feminine and too similar to the other smartwatches on the market. Honestly, it looks as if (it was) created by a design student in the first semester. "
Will he, as announced in the press buy, anyway? "Yes, but not this model. Apple has to work. It looks almost as if they (came) prematurely on the market (by) one year. If the battery lasts ten days and it works even if I do not have my phone with me, then (I will get one). "
Biver therefore (does) not consider (this) as an attack on the luxury watch segment, "This is a commodity that will be obsolete in a few years. Luxury has always something timeless, is rare and gives prestige. A clock that is sold 40 million times and in ten years cannot be repaired, cannot be timeless. "
Interestingly one of the quotes from a u.s. Fashion reviewer was it was not sexy because it was not feminine enough. So it's either too feminine or not feminine enough. We can agree it's not very sexy.
I think it's a very good first try, probably hitting the sweet spot better than anyone else, and the roadmap for future models is clear. There will also be sub-brands. A Beats version that's waterproof and plasticky. Some lux brand that goes beyond the Edition. Etc. We are going to see a lot of this platform.
I think it's a very good first try, probably hitting the sweet spot better than anyone else, and the roadmap for future models is clear. There will also be sub-brands. A Beats version that's waterproof and plasticky. Some lux brand that goes beyond the Edition. Etc. We are going to see a lot of this platform.
Beyond the Edition?
The Edition could be as much as $3000.
I doubt Apple will go further.
Three thousand bucks is nothing in the watch world. High end watches don't even stop at five figures. And apple's m.o.is to attack the top of the market. And based on their marketing they consider the market "watches," not "smart watches."
As someone who has purchased those high end watches (Patek, Breguet, etc), I disagree that Apple can sell watches beyond the $3000 mark.
Above $4000, one can purchase nice watches that last a generation.
You wouldn't be the first to doubt apple's ability to "walk right in" to an established market and compete with a product that has an obvious disadvantage compared to the incumbents.
Jony Ive On iWatch: Switzerland is in Trouble
I have talked with many watch collectors who are not interested in such a product.
Have you ever purchased high end watches?
They are called watches but that's where the similarities between them and apple watch end.
This is like trying to compare the Tesla Model S with a Rolls Royce Phantom or a Ferrari LaFerrari and speculating what would happen if Tesla or Toyota made a 300k-2m car.
Apple has certainly taken a step into entry level luxury watches with their solid gold Edition model but it's a far cry from watches from brands such as Patek, Audemars Piguet etc which sell watches that start around $15000 and go well into above $500k.
I have talked with many watch collectors who are not interested in such a product.
Have you ever purchased high end watches?
They are called watches but that's where the similarities between them and apple watch end.
This is like trying to compare the Tesla Model S with a Rolls Royce Phantom or a Ferrari LaFerrari and speculating what would happen if Tesla or Toyota made a 300k-2m car.
Apple has certainly taken a step into entry level luxury watches with their solid gold Edition model but it's a far cry from watches from brands such as Patek, Audemars Piguet etc which sell watches that start around $15000 and go well into above $500k.
I own a tesla, a porsche, but no rolls. And my last watch cost only $2000 in 1999 dollars. But I always was fascinated with watches and I follow the culture closely, and my buddy, a collector gave me some insights. There's clearly nothing about THIS iteration that suggests five-figure price points, but as I said, I expect apple to start housing more fashion brands, and to see a future iteration that goes up-market.
