Jony Ive On iWatch: Switzerland is in Trouble

[kappaknight]

No, I'm talking about how I felt when the iPhone was first announced. I could see how useful a smartphone would be - and that's before stuff like Spotify, 4G, Whatsapp etc. etc. I'm talking about phone, internet, emails and calendar.

The only reason I didn't get the iPhone at the beginning was the hideous cost - I decided that I could do without an 18 month contract with O2 at £60 per month and something like a £600 initial outlay.

Not wanting to sound like a smartarse, but yes, I did think smartphones would be huge. I thought that before the iPhone when I was reading all about the Nuvifone (I think it was called).

Well, what you're saying is you saw the iPhone's potential when it was announced. Well yeah, so did everyone else. There were a number of smart phones before the iPhone; (e.g. BlackBerry, Treo, etc.) and many of them could do a ton of stuff - but somehow iPhone brought it all main stream and changed the way most modern smartphones now look.

We're still pre-iWatch announcement, so it's hard to say/see what it can do. Once it is announced in a few days, it'd be interesting to get your thoughts again.

 

[groovyd]

this is how i think it will work for mobile payment...

you put the watch band on and it senses the band connection. iphone notification pops up says watch has been put on and asks you to finger scan for allowing it purchase power. from then on until it senses the band has been removed simple NFC with vendor payment device pops up on the watch a this costs that, accept or deny buttons. no need to finger scan again or pull your phone out. watch talks to phone and authenticates the transaction via the apple store. phone and watch both receive instant receipt notification and the receipt is stashed away in your phones passbook. watch may also browse passbook for tickets, coupons, memberships, etc. touch the one you want to use on the watch face and then NFC it to the vendors machine, same accept deny dialog, same receipt result. again no need to finger scan every time, only upon putting the watch on. watch has no ability to purchase once removed until again put on and phone finger scan.

 

[proline]

Of course I know nothing about the new product, but there is something like business and general logic that makes it possible to predict to a certain degree what will happen.

I don't doubt that things can be predicted to some degree, but that has to be done by someone who is willing to examine all the facts. Someone who starts with their conclusion- high end watch making cannot be disrupted- and works backwards from there can't do this. A few of the facts you've conveniently forgotten- Ive has shown a distinct interest in making collector's items for the wealthy such as his Leica and $977,000 Mac Pro. Based on his public statements on how many iterations of the Leica he went through, it seems likely he spends much of his time on such endeavors leaving Apple's existing product lines to others. Fact #2 that you can't remember- Apple has been hiring new designers such as Marc Newson. "Oh wait, you whine, I didn't know about that!" No, of course you didn't. You released conjecture without gathering all the facts.

In all the cases you mentioned the end result for the user is the same product by another manufacturer: a phone call by iOS in stead of BB, a game played on an Android phone in stead of a console, a photo of a city..

I love your ridiculous distinctions. A game on an phone is nothing like a game on a dedicated console, nor is using an iPhone camera anything like using a Kodak camera. Apple's devices are entirely different- it is enough to full-fill the same need- it doesn't have to be the exact same thing.

The differences:

1. people buy luxury watches surely because of the features, but most importantly for the way these features are generated: By intricate mechanical movements made of as many -or in some cases as least- possible components.

2. The other reason why people buy luxury watches is because of their emotional value. I have several ones and each one bought at a special occasion. I also have two that were indeed handed down through the family. None of my cheaper digital watches have survived long enough to enable to do that. Or are valuable enough to even consider it.

3. Thirdly, luxury watches are scarce and expensive and therefore considered status symbols. Not much to explain here. Like I said before one of my colleagues just bought a $25,000 Panerai. He didn't buy it because it could tell time and to be honest probable also not because it looks so good. It's an investment and status symbol for him.

You are under the wrong impression that the watch makers will only feel the impact when they lose their last, most emotional customer. Of course the impact actually starts when they lose their first customer, or when they lose future generations of customers.

if all the rumors are true

Yes, of course you would base your ideas on the notion of all rumors being true, even the digitimes ones no doubt, despite the fact that that is never the case. Ridiculous.

There is no need for this personal attack. Did you see me at any point doing the same?

You've launched nothing but personal attacks, but you whine when I point out how emotional you are? By your own admission above, you have made expensive purchases based on nothing more than sentiment. It isn't a personal attack to point out that that type of emotional decision making spreads throughout your entire though process. As for personal attacks, you've said that the customers of high-end watch manufacturers are 100% people who are either obsessed with antiquated mechanisms, controlled by sentimentality, or douche bags out to prove their status. You deny the possibility that there is even one customer with a brain- the minimum pre-requisite for this industry to be impacted. I'd say the rational owners of expensive watches are rightfully offended.

Sorry, but that's not logic at all. Each example should be analysed on its own merit. My point is that this a very different example than the examples you brought up. And yes I know the CEOs of those companies you mentioned also thought that, but I point to the three reasons above.

There are 1,000 differences between Apple and [insert company here]. As your arguments get debunked you can just invent new ones, similar to climate change deniers, young Earthers, etc. There's no point in dealing with them because you will just spout more and deny having ever supported the existing ones. Ultimately, only time will tell.

Agreed, but we all know that Apple will not introduce a diamond and gold studded watch that will run for generations and will be in value somewhere in the $10.000 dollars.

LOL. Apple's already gone far above $10,000. Hell, the TAM cost that much and that was 20 years ago. You really didn't do much research.

 

[cube]

The stock dipped 3% so maybe it's just small amount of unjustified fear, but I was specifically referring to low end Swatch products.

Meh. I was way overdue for an upgrade, as I pay barely any attention to it, and all the iWatch talk of the last few days made me go up in category by 300%. Twice.

 

[nigerson]

No Swiss watch can beat an Apple iDevice for accurate time, as long as it has internet access. It also automatically switches time zones and between daylight savings time and standard.

If the iWatch syncs to one's iDevice, then it will also have such accuracy and be back on one's wrist for convenient access.

We haven't yet seen everything else that it will access and make more convenient, but, just like the computer is a "general purpose machine" thanks to its programmability and digital inner workings, the iWatch will be not just a watch and certainly far more general purpose than an analog set of revolving "hands."

I think the Swiss watch industry is truly in for a rude awakening in the not-too-distant future.

The swiss, specifically Tissot released the t-touch series which is the first real touchscreen/smart watch and has 6month battery. There is no replacement for a real watch because iwatch wont be waterproof, wont be durable, and have the unlimited battery life that mechanical watches provide(or really long quartz battery life that non-mechanical watches have).

 

[cube]

I did not know about Citizen's cool light-powered watches.

 

[zipa]

In other words, he's a professional troll and doing a good job of it by the looks of this thread.

Should he not be banned, then, and have this post deleted?

But yeah, based on the Brits that I know and their sense of humor, I'd wager that you're pretty close to mark here.

 

[arbogast777]

Let me tell you the problem I have with wearables...

A lot of employers, including mine, don't let you have your phone on you when at work, except of course during personal time like lunch. I assume schools have similar rules regarding students and them using smartphones in the classroom. And what about driving? I can imagine getting pulled over for speeding, etc, and having my hand on the wheel with text messages popping up on my wrist. An iWatch type device would never be allowed to be worn during the 40 hours you are at work or during your time in the classroom, and who knows if police would consider just having one on to be using an internet device while driving.

Just a thought...

 

[proline]

You can save a link to my posts and later prove me wrong.

The evidence that you are wrong is piling up by the day. Good time to start backpedalling. You really should have taken the time to think about this rather than make yourself look foolish.

 

[SHNXX]

Let me tell you the problem I have with wearables...

A lot of employers, including mine, don't let you have your phone on you when at work, except of course during personal time like lunch. I assume schools have similar rules regarding students and them using smartphones in the classroom. And what about driving? I can imagine getting pulled over for speeding, etc, and having my hand on the wheel with text messages popping up on my wrist. An iWatch type device would never be allowed to be worn during the 40 hours you are at work or during your time in the classroom, and who knows if police would consider just having one on to be using an internet device while driving.

Just a thought...

Lol
Ur employer doesn't let you use a phone?

 

[arbogast777]

Lol
Ur employer doesn't let you use a phone?

Not my personal one, no. I don't think that's at all uncommon. Ever see a doctor check his e-mail while talking to you or a waiter checking Facebook while taking your order?

 

[twoodcc]

no point in adding more hype if it's not coming out til next year

 

[loon3y]

People that buy $10,000-$50,000 watches aren't going to not buy them because of Apple.

There was an interview with one of the luxury watch vendors CEO back when the first digital watches came out in the 70's. The interviewer asked about the threatening competition from digital watches, and the CEO gave back the answer "We're not in the watch business. We're in the Jewelry business."

The Swiss watchmakers have nothing to worry about.

this, lol at anyone really thinking they buy rolexes to solely for time.


its jewelry its to show off that you have money.

 

[Pistol Peto]

It won't surprise me if the outcome turns out to be true.

I assume it will have:

• Various sensors to monitor your health and to warn you if things start going astray
• GPS and motion sensors to help you work out
• NFC to make payments at retail stores and to open your garage/front door
• Display messages/emails/phone calls etc.
• The ability to enter basic things like new list items, emails, texts

And... oh yeah - the ability to display the time.

If you get used to one of these on your wrist I can't see anyone going back. You'll want to wear it when you are awake (and maybe when you're asleep for that matter). You won't want to take it off.

Sell a mass market SKU for a reasonable amount ($250). Hire 'high end' experts to create a few exclusive SKU's for those that need to flaunt their wealth ($500 - $2,000).

Is someone going to wear one of these PLUS their TAG Heuer to impress their friends? I doubt it.

People that wear a watch for jewelry purposes will just start buying high end jewelry.

Watch makers will be hurting big time - like the LED watches did to them in the 70's but this time permanently.

My predictions turned out to be bang on - basically an amalgamation of rumours that seemed credible and a bit of guessing. I'm sure lots more people guessed what was presented today.

I now strongly stand by my prediction that this will really hurt traditional high end/Swiss watch makers.

 

[Liquorpuki]

My predictions turned out to be bang on - basically an amalgamation of rumours that seemed credible and a bit of guessing. I'm sure lots more people guessed what was presented today.

I now strongly stand by my prediction that this will really hurt traditional high end/Swiss watch makers.

I think people that wear watches as jewelry aren't gonna be replacing them with watches that can't pass as jewelry

A smartwatch, you use its functions maybe 2% of the time it's on your wrist. The other 98% of the time its sole job is to look nice so you won't take it off. Looks matter more than functions. And to kill high end Swiss watch makers, that smartwatch has to look nicer than luxury Swiss watches.

 

[SHNXX]

All I can say is LOL at Jony Ive.

Is this sacred cow of a designer really competent?

----------

My predictions turned out to be bang on - basically an amalgamation of rumours that seemed credible and a bit of guessing. I'm sure lots more people guessed what was presented today.



I now strongly stand by my prediction that this will really hurt traditional high end/Swiss watch makers.

What a bunch of idiotic nonsense.

 

[Fenez]

My predictions turned out to be bang on - basically an amalgamation of rumours that seemed credible and a bit of guessing. I'm sure lots more people guessed what was presented today.

I now strongly stand by my prediction that this will really hurt traditional high end/Swiss watch makers.

You can't be serious

 

[markyr17]

Not reading the pages of comments in this thread, but...

Switzerland has absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

[Pistol Peto]

All I can say is LOL at Jony Ive.

Is this sacred cow of a designer really competent?

----------




What a bunch of idiotic nonsense.

We'll compare notes in a year or two. Give Dell, RIM, Palm, Microsoft, Nokia, etc. a call and ask them what their original reaction was to new Apple products and how they like them now.

Balmer laughed at the iPhone - much like your off the cuff insult. He got himself turfed over it. Finland saw their tech darling basically vanish. Canada too.

 

[SHNXX]

We'll compare notes in a year or two. Give Dell, RIM, Palm, Microsoft, Nokia, etc. a call and ask them what their original reaction was to new Apple products and how they like them now.

Balmer laughed at the iPhone - much like your off the cuff insult. He got himself turfed over it. Finland saw their tech darling basically vanish. Canada too.

Okay Ms. Cleo.
Do you have any lottery predictions for us?

 

[Pistol Peto]

Okay Ms. Cleo.
Do you have any lottery predictions for us?

Nope, but I do predict the odds of you moving out of your parents basement as... doubtful.

I also predict that Apple's 2015 Q1 and Q2 results will be record quarters - mostly on the strength of the iPhone 6 and 6+. The Watch will ramp up from reasonable sales to a significant part of their earnings within two years - but more importantly will play a big part in the Apple eco-system that fuels the sales of more phones and services.

Around that point you'll start to hear some noise from high end watch makers that they are having trouble competing with all the features (health, purchasing, communication, etc.) Apple's watch is delivering. They'll start their slide and in five years their sales will be maybe 25% of what they are now.

Laugh all you want - many have before you. Where are they now?

 

[peterdevries]

Nope, but I do predict the odds of you moving out of your parents basement as... doubtful.

I also predict that Apple's 2015 Q1 and Q2 results will be record quarters - mostly on the strength of the iPhone 6 and 6+. The Watch will ramp up from reasonable sales to a significant part of their earnings within two years - but more importantly will play a big part in the Apple eco-system that fuels the sales of more phones and services.

Around that point you'll start to hear some noise from high end watch makers that they are having trouble competing with all the features (health, purchasing, communication, etc.) Apple's watch is delivering. They'll start their slide and in five years their sales will be maybe 25% of what they are now.

Laugh all you want - many have before you. Where are they now?

You are missing the point, just as Proline is. What you should do to analyse what will happen here is not the product itself and how it compares to other products. What you should analyse is the reason why people buy these different products.

Luxury watches (the segment above approx $5000) are bought by consumers for at least five reasons:

• Exclusivity - Rolex sells only a few hundred thousand watches a year. Most watches have a waiting list. All other manufacturers such as Patek, Hublot, MontBlanc, Zenith function in the same way. Prices are high because their scarcity, premium materials and the incredibly complicated and time consuming manufacturing process which is in most cases 100% manual and done in high income countries by extremely well-paid and educated professionals.
• Emotional value - Many luxury watches are bought / or presented as a gift to celebrate special occasions or inherited through families.
• Longevity - Products that are bought for emotional purposes need longevity. Luxury watches work longer than human lifetimes. Granted they need to be serviced but $300-700 per 5-7 years is acceptable for most that invest thousands on a watch.
• Mechanical complexity - Many luxury watches are incredibly complex and have taken tens of years to develop. I own a Breitling Cosmonaute which has a 24 hour movement with a flyback chronograph. Many luxury watch owners buy them for they mechanical complexity. It might be easy to duplicate digitally but you will understand what this is about if you have ever witnessed the inside of such a watch through the glass plate on the back of the watch.
• Investment - This is quite straightforward and related to the first point. Most luxury watches of plus $5000 appreciate in value rather than depreciate like digital watches. A Rolex bought now will only increase in value, the same as a. Breitling of any of the other brands mentioned.

In the long run certain watch makers are indeed in trouble. But we need to take a look at the segments carefully to understand what will happen. The pricing and functionality of the apple watch is clearly aimed at the same demographic as the other smart watches that are on the market: health aware people that are concerned about their outward appearance and styling. This might not be a complete discription but it should fit most. Age targeting is probably somewhere between 18-45. The starting price indicates it is aimed at the lower to mid segments of the watch market ($350-2000). Brands affected will be Tissot, Fossil, Festina, Seiko, Casio and at the higher end of that range the golden versions might impact Longines, Tag Heuer and Breitling's digital ranges. There are so many brands so of course this is only a small part.

So it is likely that the Apple watch will affect the watch industry, but the introduction yesterday confirmed that this watch will not be able to satisfy any of the above reasons why real luxury watches are bought. There has been a lot of criticism about these reasons but go ask any owner of a luxury watch and they will confirm this.

In addition the luxury brands have had ample time to venture into the lower segments, but decided not to in order to avoid adversely impacting the brand. For the same reason luxury car brands prefer their holding partners to cover the lower segments (Lamborghini-Audi etc.).

Further down the line I see the lower to mid segments of the watch market transforming to cope with the competition from android, Tizen and Apple. The higher segment will stay the way it is as long as the fundamental reasons to buy luxury watches are not addressed in any way by a new product.

 

[spinedoc77]

You are missing the point, just as Proline is. What you should do to analyse what will happen here is not the product itself and how it compares to other products. What you should analyse is the reason why people buy these different products.

Luxury watches (the segment above approx $5000) are bought by consumers for at least five reasons:

• Exclusivity - Rolex sells only a few hundred thousand watches a year. Most watches have a waiting list. All other manufacturers such as Patek, Hublot, MontBlanc, Zenith function in the same way. Prices are high because their scarcity, premium materials and the incredibly complicated and time consuming manufacturing process which is in most cases 100% manual and done in high income countries by extremely well-paid and educated professionals.
• Emotional value - Many luxury watches are bought / or presented as a gift to celebrate special occasions or inherited through families.
• Longevity - Products that are bought for emotional purposes need longevity. Luxury watches work longer than human lifetimes. Granted they need to be serviced but $300-700 per 5-7 years is acceptable for most that invest thousands on a watch.
• Mechanical complexity - Many luxury watches are incredibly complex and have taken tens of years to develop. I own a Breitling Cosmonaute which has a 24 hour movement with a flyback chronograph. Many luxury watch owners buy them for they mechanical complexity. It might be easy to duplicate digitally but you will understand what this is about if you have ever witnessed the inside of such a watch through the glass plate on the back of the watch.
• Investment - This is quite straightforward and related to the first point. Most luxury watches of plus $5000 appreciate in value rather than depreciate like digital watches. A Rolex bought now will only increase in value, the same as a. Breitling of any of the other brands mentioned.

In the long run certain watch makers are indeed in trouble. But we need to take a look at the segments carefully to understand what will happen. The pricing and functionality of the apple watch is clearly aimed at the same demographic as the other smart watches that are on the market: health aware people that are concerned about their outward appearance and styling. This might not be a complete discription but it should fit most. Age targeting is probably somewhere between 18-45. The starting price indicates it is aimed at the lower to mid segments of the watch market ($350-2000). Brands affected will be Tissot, Fossil, Festina, Seiko, Casio and at the higher end of that range the golden versions might impact Longines, Tag Heuer and Breitling's digital ranges. There are so many brands so of course this is only a small part.

So it is likely that the Apple watch will affect the watch industry, but the introduction yesterday confirmed that this watch will not be able to satisfy any of the above reasons why real luxury watches are bought. There has been a lot of criticism about these reasons but go ask any owner of a luxury watch and they will confirm this.

In addition the luxury brands have had ample time to venture into the lower segments, but decided not to in order to avoid adversely impacting the brand. For the same reason luxury car brands prefer their holding partners to cover the lower segments (Lamborghini-Audi etc.).

Further down the line I see the lower to mid segments of the watch market transforming to cope with the competition from android, Tizen and Apple. The higher segment will stay the way it is as long as the fundamental reasons to buy luxury watches are not addressed in any way by a new product.

Just to add to what you said, which I agree with... Let's not forget that Apple makes its money off of the upgrade treadmill. So next year there will be an Apple watch-S or whatever it's called, and a watch-2 the year after that, etc. When you spend thousands on a watch you basically are keeping that same watch for life and probably only upgrading it for something more expensive if at all. You will pass it on to your kids or a loved one. You are just not going to get that sentimental value with an apple watch, kind of like those Vertu cell phones. At the end of the day you can throw diamonds and gold on it, but the innards, the technology will always be outdated exactly one year from when it was released.

 

[Pistol Peto]

Several good points. Thanks.

What I can't get out of my head is that the more people become dependant on their new smart watch (with apple's ecosystem that's next to impossible to copy) the more likely they will wear it always.

Who's going to wear two watches? That seems ridiculous - no matter what statement they are trying to make.

I can see another type of 'something' coming into fashion to show how unique/tasteful/wealthy one is. Maybe it's jewelry, maybe it's fancy old fashioned time pieces on a desk or in the entranceway of a house. I just can't see in a few years this relic of a bygone era sitting on someones wrist.

I think it will be like seeing someone with a monocle or a pocket watch today.

 

[SHNXX]

Nope, but I do predict the odds of you moving out of your parents basement as... doubtful.

I also predict that Apple's 2015 Q1 and Q2 results will be record quarters - mostly on the strength of the iPhone 6 and 6+. The Watch will ramp up from reasonable sales to a significant part of their earnings within two years - but more importantly will play a big part in the Apple eco-system that fuels the sales of more phones and services.

Around that point you'll start to hear some noise from high end watch makers that they are having trouble competing with all the features (health, purchasing, communication, etc.) Apple's watch is delivering. They'll start their slide and in five years their sales will be maybe 25% of what they are now.

Laugh all you want - many have before you. Where are they now?

I'm still laughing at your idiotic posts as I wear my Patek and Rolexes and other mechanical watches proudly.
My lady will still be wearing her Breguet, Chanel, Cartiers, Vacheron Constantin, etc.
$350 is less than what it costs to replace a strap on my Patek so I will probably buy it just because it's an Apple product; but will it ever replace a Patek? Never.

You claim to understand the psychology of watch buyers but do you have a watch collection that amounts to anything?
I and others have spent tens of thousands on watches and understand what kind of thinking goes into the purchase.
Your Ms. Cleo predictions are really not welcome on this board.

Of course you wouldn't understand because you're still practicing your soothsayer routine in your mother's basement.
But if your poorhouse internet could handle the bandwidth (warning: a lot of pictures), here is a review by someone who understands watches.

http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/hodinkee-apple-watch-review