There's nothing careful about analyzing the impact of a product you don't know anything about. That's just spouting ignorance.
Thanks for at least a complete answer. I guess we will never agree and that is fine. Of course I know nothing about the new product, but there is something like business and general logic that makes it possible to predict to a certain degree what will happen. You can save a link to my posts and later prove me wrong.
Just remember that Balsillie and co argued with the same conviction as you. So many people have tried to pretend that they are in a different category and Apple will not affect them. Nokia/BB in phones, Nintendo/Sega in gaming, Rovio/Nomad in music, the various camera makers...
I'm fully aware of the disruptive capabilities of any Apple product and am absolutely convinced that the iWatch will impact the watch industry. I never disputed that. A good example is indeed Kodak, like you described. However there are still some material differences, and those relate to the experience for the user.
In all the cases you mentioned the end result for the user is the same product by another manufacturer: a phone call by iOS in stead of BB, a game played on an Android phone in stead of a console, a photo of a city..
The differences:
1. people buy luxury watches surely because of the features, but most importantly for the way these features are generated: By intricate mechanical movements made of as many -or in some cases as least- possible components.
2. The other reason why people buy luxury watches is because of their emotional value. I have several ones and each one bought at a special occasion. I also have two that were indeed handed down through the family. None of my cheaper digital watches have survived long enough to enable to do that. Or are valuable enough to even consider it.
3. Thirdly, luxury watches are scarce and expensive and therefore considered status symbols. Not much to explain here. Like I said before one of my colleagues just bought a $25,000 Panerai. He didn't buy it because it could tell time and to be honest probable also not because it looks so good. It's an investment and status symbol for him.
These three reasons have caused a growth of the luxury watch segment in the last 30 years. If Apple comes up with a way to address these three points that they will indeed disrupt the luxury market. But if all the rumors are true and their business strategy for iWatch is the same as for the other products than they will introduce a digital watch with sensors at price points somewhere between 200 and 1000 dollars, than I think luxury watch manufacturers will be fine.
You will never concede based on arguments. You are driven entirely by emotion. You like expensive watches. I get that. You probably keep an eye out for them at garage sales and have some online buddies to chat about them, maybe you even scraped together enough to buy one.
There is no need for this personal attack. Did you see me at any point doing the same?
You want to believe that watches are some special case unlike all the others. Well, that may be true, but logic suggests that when countless others have tried your whole "company X is in a different category and untouchable!!!" nonsense and failed, you will be no different.
Sorry, but that's not logic at all. Each example should be analysed on its own merit. My point is that this a very different example than the examples you brought up. And yes I know the CEOs of those companies you mentioned also thought that, but I point to the three reasons above.
As for the quality of your arguments, you make assumptions about products that don't yet exist. You know what happens to those who make assumptions, right?
Agreed, but we all know that Apple will not introduce a diamond and gold studded watch that will run for generations and will be in value somewhere in the $10.000 dollars.
I hate the saying "let's agree to disagree" but I guess in this case it is appropriate. But please leave the personal attacks, because they are not necessary.