My cousin uses a treo and he thinks the iphone is going to flop big. He kept saying it's not a phone, it's too many stuff. He doesn't understand how a phone can't have buttons, etc. I kept explaining to him that it would actually make stuff easier to do without buttons, and he just wouldn't take it. I made a 100 dollar bet with him that the iphone won't flop. What do you guys think? Did he make any good points? I couldn't see one good point except maybe it might seem awkward at first because there are no buttons, but people will realize how it's actually used later on.
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So my cousin thinks iphone is going to flop
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I'd take that bet... it's Steve Jobs, Jonathan Ive and a whole bunch of very smart people's thinking plus the CEOs of Yahoo and Cingular vs. your cousin. 
I'd take that bet, too... it's a calculated risk, but, as BV said, we are talking the "magic" of Jobs/Ive here, I think they've masterminded more successes then flops the last couple of years...
But be sure to make a clear definition of what would constitute a flop or not, and maybe a time frame... (hint: 1% market share at the end of 2008)
But be sure to make a clear definition of what would constitute a flop or not, and maybe a time frame... (hint: 1% market share at the end of 2008)
I agree, a time frame is needed for this bet. You can't expect it to beat ALL other phones the day it's released
Your cousin is a smartphone/pda user. I think Apple is pushing this at people who don't use that class of device normally.
Due to the perceived 'coolness' of Apple I think it unlikely they'll fail.
I'd take the bet.
Due to the perceived 'coolness' of Apple I think it unlikely they'll fail.
I'd take the bet.
I am concerned that at the current pricing for the phone and data plans it might flop.
I'm not convinced it will be a major success to begin with, but then it doesn't need to be as even a 1% market share is a **** load of sales (10 million phones?).
Its Apples second attempt at a phone (after the Motorola deal) and it seems as much to test the water ready for the real push with the future phones as anything else.
I reckon the real phones which will win major market share will come in 2008, cheaper, more storage, 3G etc.
Its Apples second attempt at a phone (after the Motorola deal) and it seems as much to test the water ready for the real push with the future phones as anything else.
I reckon the real phones which will win major market share will come in 2008, cheaper, more storage, 3G etc.
I'd take that bet... it's Steve Jobs, Jonathan Ive and a whole bunch of very smart people's thinking plus the CEOs of Yahoo and Cingular vs. your cousin.
Absolutely right. It's hardly a fair fight is it?
Yes, the price of the data plans which will not be the same when the iPhone is released since there WILL BE iPHONE DATA PLANS! The prices now mean nothing!
executives at Xerox laughed at the concept of the mouse, and didn't understand it's potential.
The virtual keyboard still sounds a little iffy to me. I didn't watch the whole keynote so I don't know if they demo'ed how the keyboard works, but I have a hard time thinking that it will be very good.
Also, they do still have some arbitrary limitations...I see the exec crowd being the target market for this thing, so it needs to be able to open Office documents and connect to an Exchange server.
Apple is only expecting 1% of the market share. It's not going to be a "big hit" like the ipod with mp3 players.
I am not sure what is definition of flop here but I do not expect iPhone to be major success.
It's crippled in many ways and only real difference from other devices is the touch screen. So much hype for nothing.
I definitely would not buy it, even if it was available as unlocked device. I will stick with my RIM, Samsung D500 and SE P910i, thank you.
It's crippled in many ways and only real difference from other devices is the touch screen. So much hype for nothing.
I definitely would not buy it, even if it was available as unlocked device. I will stick with my RIM, Samsung D500 and SE P910i, thank you.
You'll have to specify exactly what the bet is. Something like "1 billion US$ revenue or more in the year 2007, according to Apple earnings report in Jan. 2008".
Apple says: One percent in the first year, that is about 9.6 million phones, that would be about 5 billion dollars. But "first year" would mean "12 months starting at the first day you can buy one". One billion revenues in 2007 would be only about six or seven months, and only in the US. Also, Apple revenue numbers are less than the $499 or $599 price tag (even if you buy at an Apple store, the margin of the store is not counted as revenue for Apple). Still, one billion in 2007 would be a bit less than Apple hoped for, but most definitely not a flop. Less than 500 million I might say a flop. Between 500 and 1000 million, a bit disappointing. 1000 to 1500 OKish, above that good.
Small correction: The way I heard it, Apple is forecasting a 1% market share for the iPhone by the end of 2008 (the first full calendar year of sales).
I agree with him...
I know, an unpopular opinion.
I think it comes down to the touch interface. I think touch is a novelty that will quickly wear off with the power users. People like tactile feedback. Some even like the (Aaacckkk) Stylus.
I do think the iPhone will have some early success, based mostly on the cool factor. Hell, I might even buy one.
I spent a number of years building touch interfaces for some heavily used applications. No matter what we built, the users always went back to either stylus or keyboard as their main form of input. Even when we took the keyboard away, they would request the stylus because their hands would get tired. Your hand moves less when using a stylus. A stylus also has a much more accurate touch point.
For that casual user that uses some basic functionality, I think its going to be a hit.
For someone who's gotten used to the two thumbed keyboard entry of the blackberry type devices, I think its not going to be that popular.
I think the iPhones success is going to be directly tied with OS X and third party support. I think third party support IS the killer App. I think the feedback they received from MacWorld probably changed their mind on the that. If you see a stranglehold on the third party support, you'll see this phone die a quick iDeath, destined for the bargain bin at Costco.
I know, an unpopular opinion.
I think it comes down to the touch interface. I think touch is a novelty that will quickly wear off with the power users. People like tactile feedback. Some even like the (Aaacckkk) Stylus.
I do think the iPhone will have some early success, based mostly on the cool factor. Hell, I might even buy one.
I spent a number of years building touch interfaces for some heavily used applications. No matter what we built, the users always went back to either stylus or keyboard as their main form of input. Even when we took the keyboard away, they would request the stylus because their hands would get tired. Your hand moves less when using a stylus. A stylus also has a much more accurate touch point.
For that casual user that uses some basic functionality, I think its going to be a hit.
For someone who's gotten used to the two thumbed keyboard entry of the blackberry type devices, I think its not going to be that popular.
I think the iPhones success is going to be directly tied with OS X and third party support. I think third party support IS the killer App. I think the feedback they received from MacWorld probably changed their mind on the that. If you see a stranglehold on the third party support, you'll see this phone die a quick iDeath, destined for the bargain bin at Costco.
Which is why I hinted that this could be the mark of success or failure in my post above...
So you did. You may beat me senseless if you like. I haven't got far to go.
Apple is certainly going to get its share of competition. I'm especially looking forward to Nokia's Aeon -concept phones. I bet iPhone is going to give the whole industry a well needed push.
It Could Flop
If it flops, it will be because of people who are either: in a current contract/just signed up with another carrier, or people who just dropped big bucks on a phone/pda, or people like me who are simply happy with the phone I have and could really give a sh*t about the phone, as long as it works and I am happy with it, which it does (Motorola L6) and I am.
Also, I am currently a contractor working overseas, and if it was an "unlocked" phone which I could just bring with me and use in other countries, it would be great, but since it is locked with Cingular, that rules that out.
The only way I would (currently) buy one is to use as an iPod/Video/Internet device, since the phone thing is limited for an international traveler like myself.
If they came out with an iPod like this, I would buy it. But as it is now, with the requirement of a contract (I don't like being told which mega-corp I am supposed to devote myself to), they can keep it. And by the way, I am a longtime Mac user, starting with the Apple IIe in High School in 1982.
If it flops, it will be because of people who are either: in a current contract/just signed up with another carrier, or people who just dropped big bucks on a phone/pda, or people like me who are simply happy with the phone I have and could really give a sh*t about the phone, as long as it works and I am happy with it, which it does (Motorola L6) and I am.
Also, I am currently a contractor working overseas, and if it was an "unlocked" phone which I could just bring with me and use in other countries, it would be great, but since it is locked with Cingular, that rules that out.
The only way I would (currently) buy one is to use as an iPod/Video/Internet device, since the phone thing is limited for an international traveler like myself.
If they came out with an iPod like this, I would buy it. But as it is now, with the requirement of a contract (I don't like being told which mega-corp I am supposed to devote myself to), they can keep it. And by the way, I am a longtime Mac user, starting with the Apple IIe in High School in 1982.