So my cousin thinks iphone is going to flop

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by v-ault, Jan 15, 2007.

  1. v-ault macrumors regular

    Dec 20, 2006
    My cousin uses a treo and he thinks the iphone is going to flop big. He kept saying it's not a phone, it's too many stuff. He doesn't understand how a phone can't have buttons, etc. I kept explaining to him that it would actually make stuff easier to do without buttons, and he just wouldn't take it. I made a 100 dollar bet with him that the iphone won't flop. What do you guys think? Did he make any good points? I couldn't see one good point except maybe it might seem awkward at first because there are no buttons, but people will realize how it's actually used later on.
  2. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

    Jul 4, 2004
    I'd take that bet... it's Steve Jobs, Jonathan Ive and a whole bunch of very smart people's thinking plus the CEOs of Yahoo and Cingular vs. your cousin. ;)
  3. Mitthrawnuruodo Moderator emeritus


    Mar 10, 2004
    Bergen, Norway
    I'd take that bet, too... it's a calculated risk, but, as BV said, we are talking the "magic" of Jobs/Ive here, I think they've masterminded more successes then flops the last couple of years...

    But be sure to make a clear definition of what would constitute a flop or not, and maybe a time frame... (hint: 1% market share at the end of 2008)
  4. dllavaneras macrumors 68000


    Feb 12, 2005
    Caracas, Venezuela
    I agree, a time frame is needed for this bet. You can't expect it to beat ALL other phones the day it's released
  5. emotion macrumors 68040


    Mar 29, 2004
    Manchester, UK
    Your cousin is a smartphone/pda user. I think Apple is pushing this at people who don't use that class of device normally.

    Due to the perceived 'coolness' of Apple I think it unlikely they'll fail.

    I'd take the bet.
  6. Nym macrumors 6502a


    Oct 4, 2006
    Porto, Portugal
  7. skubish macrumors 68030


    Feb 2, 2005
    Ann Arbor, Michigan
    I am concerned that at the current pricing for the phone and data plans it might flop.
  8. babyj macrumors 6502a

    Aug 29, 2006
    I'm not convinced it will be a major success to begin with, but then it doesn't need to be as even a 1% market share is a **** load of sales (10 million phones?).

    Its Apples second attempt at a phone (after the Motorola deal) and it seems as much to test the water ready for the real push with the future phones as anything else.

    I reckon the real phones which will win major market share will come in 2008, cheaper, more storage, 3G etc.
  9. calculus Guest


    Dec 12, 2005
    Absolutely right. It's hardly a fair fight is it?
  10. Warbrain macrumors 603


    Jun 28, 2004
    Chicago, IL
    Yes, the price of the data plans which will not be the same when the iPhone is released since there WILL BE iPHONE DATA PLANS! The prices now mean nothing!
  11. dextertangocci macrumors 68000

    Apr 2, 2006
  12. superbovine macrumors 68030


    Nov 7, 2003
    executives at Xerox laughed at the concept of the mouse, and didn't understand it's potential.
  13. MattyMac macrumors 68000


    Oct 6, 2005
    me too!
  14. clevin macrumors G3


    Aug 6, 2006
    sorry, i think u will lose, but not necessarily because of the buttons, price, lock, limitation, screen quality, future iPods' competition are all factors.
  15. savar macrumors 68000


    Jun 6, 2003
    District of Columbia
    The virtual keyboard still sounds a little iffy to me. I didn't watch the whole keynote so I don't know if they demo'ed how the keyboard works, but I have a hard time thinking that it will be very good.

    Also, they do still have some arbitrary limitations...I see the exec crowd being the target market for this thing, so it needs to be able to open Office documents and connect to an Exchange server.
  16. heehee macrumors 68020


    Jul 31, 2006
    Same country as Santa Claus
    Apple is only expecting 1% of the market share. It's not going to be a "big hit" like the ipod with mp3 players.
  17. tutubibi macrumors 6502a


    Sep 18, 2003
    I am not sure what is definition of flop here but I do not expect iPhone to be major success.
    It's crippled in many ways and only real difference from other devices is the touch screen. So much hype for nothing.
    I definitely would not buy it, even if it was available as unlocked device. I will stick with my RIM, Samsung D500 and SE P910i, thank you.
  18. scan macrumors 6502

    Oct 24, 2005
    tell your cousin he's an idiot if he's backing his argument with a treo.
  19. gnasher729 macrumors P6


    Nov 25, 2005
    You'll have to specify exactly what the bet is. Something like "1 billion US$ revenue or more in the year 2007, according to Apple earnings report in Jan. 2008".

    Apple says: One percent in the first year, that is about 9.6 million phones, that would be about 5 billion dollars. But "first year" would mean "12 months starting at the first day you can buy one". One billion revenues in 2007 would be only about six or seven months, and only in the US. Also, Apple revenue numbers are less than the $499 or $599 price tag (even if you buy at an Apple store, the margin of the store is not counted as revenue for Apple). Still, one billion in 2007 would be a bit less than Apple hoped for, but most definitely not a flop. Less than 500 million I might say a flop. Between 500 and 1000 million, a bit disappointing. 1000 to 1500 OKish, above that good.
  20. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Jul 16, 2002
    Small correction: The way I heard it, Apple is forecasting a 1% market share for the iPhone by the end of 2008 (the first full calendar year of sales).
  21. Mitthrawnuruodo Moderator emeritus


    Mar 10, 2004
    Bergen, Norway
    Which is why I hinted that this could be the mark of success or failure in my post above... ;)
  22. pilotError macrumors 68020


    Apr 12, 2006
    Long Island
    I agree with him... :eek:

    I know, an unpopular opinion.

    I think it comes down to the touch interface. I think touch is a novelty that will quickly wear off with the power users. People like tactile feedback. Some even like the (Aaacckkk) Stylus.

    I do think the iPhone will have some early success, based mostly on the cool factor. Hell, I might even buy one.

    I spent a number of years building touch interfaces for some heavily used applications. No matter what we built, the users always went back to either stylus or keyboard as their main form of input. Even when we took the keyboard away, they would request the stylus because their hands would get tired. Your hand moves less when using a stylus. A stylus also has a much more accurate touch point.

    For that casual user that uses some basic functionality, I think its going to be a hit.

    For someone who's gotten used to the two thumbed keyboard entry of the blackberry type devices, I think its not going to be that popular.

    I think the iPhones success is going to be directly tied with OS X and third party support. I think third party support IS the killer App. I think the feedback they received from MacWorld probably changed their mind on the that. If you see a stranglehold on the third party support, you'll see this phone die a quick iDeath, destined for the bargain bin at Costco.
  23. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Jul 16, 2002
    So you did. You may beat me senseless if you like. I haven't got far to go. :)
  24. ruutiveijari macrumors regular

    Dec 11, 2005
    Apple is certainly going to get its share of competition. I'm especially looking forward to Nokia's Aeon -concept phones. I bet iPhone is going to give the whole industry a well needed push.
  25. jdylan macrumors regular


    Dec 31, 2006
    Bagram, Afghanistan
    It Could Flop

    If it flops, it will be because of people who are either: in a current contract/just signed up with another carrier, or people who just dropped big bucks on a phone/pda, or people like me who are simply happy with the phone I have and could really give a sh*t about the phone, as long as it works and I am happy with it, which it does (Motorola L6) and I am.

    Also, I am currently a contractor working overseas, and if it was an "unlocked" phone which I could just bring with me and use in other countries, it would be great, but since it is locked with Cingular, that rules that out.

    The only way I would (currently) buy one is to use as an iPod/Video/Internet device, since the phone thing is limited for an international traveler like myself.

    If they came out with an iPod like this, I would buy it. But as it is now, with the requirement of a contract (I don't like being told which mega-corp I am supposed to devote myself to), they can keep it. And by the way, I am a longtime Mac user, starting with the Apple IIe in High School in 1982.

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