Flash CANNOT work well on any tablet, and Apple cannot change that. Many/most Flash games, menus, and even video players would not even WORK.
Why? Because they are coded to use button down/up events and rollovers—such as video controls that pop up when you mouse over--that simply have no equivalent in touch. (Imagine what happens when you click a video—it pauses. Versus when you mouse over it without clicking: controls appear. Versus when you right-click—you get a menu with security settings. How does touch distinguish those three? It doesn’t without the Flash content being completely re-done for multitouch—in which case, just re-do it with HTML 5 or as a native app.) Plus Flash games/apps often expect a single-pixel mouse arrow, not a finger touch, so the whole UI, when it does work, would feel imprecise and frustrating. Is every Flash site going to reprogram everything to no longer use mouse-over functions and small button areas? No.
The ONLY “solutions" to the mouseover problem are:
a) Every Flash site is redesigned, by its own programmers, just for touchscreens (whether still in Flash or not) so that it doesn’t use mouseovers. That’s a ton of work, for thousands of parties, and isn’t going to happen. Plus, with many sites, mouseovers are so fundamental that the very concept of the site would be altered, creating a whole different experience that would annoy the site’s users.
b) Gestures or extra physical buttons are created that simulate mouseover—which is absurd since mouseovers, by their nature, are meant to be simpler than a click, not more complex. And meant to be natural, not something new to learn. Not a whole set of habits that violates our desktop habits.
c) Make clicking—the fundamental, constant action--itself MORE complex. Like requiring a double-tap or two-finger tap. (Two taps is how Mobile Safari does JS popup menus: first tap pops it up, second selects.) But Flash apps already use double-click for things, and extra taps only makes sense for certain limited mouseovers (like menu popups). Not for many others, including games. This is an awkward workaround for certain cases, and STILL would require Flash sites to be re-programmed. And how would you know which PARTS of a web page played by these special rules? One part of a page would do fundamental button-clicking differently from another part!
d) Have a mouse pointer near your finger, and not touch things directly. Use Apple track-pad style tap-and-drag gestures. This is not the point of direct finger manipulation. This is “like a laptop but worse” and has little reason to exist. You’d have to keep remembering whether you were in direct touch mode or “drag the arrow” mode.
e) Require extra force for a “real” tap. So you have a light tap vs. a hard tap: extra complexity, non-intuitive, easy for the user to get wrong (even with click feedback, as in Blackberry’s failed experiment), more expensive to build, would complicate the whole device just for the sake of one browser plugin, and would cause cramps that light touches do not.
Even if you ignore battery, slowdowns and crashes (and these are real), you CANNOT design a touchscreen to use current Flash sites well. It’s not that Apple has refused. It cannot, logically, be done. A finger is not a mouse, and Flash sites are designed to expect a mouse pointer in vital, fundamental ways.
So there IS NO GOOD solution to Flash on a touchscreen right now. If not having Flash is unacceptable, then so is having Flash that doesn’t work! No tablet, from Apple or Android or anyone, can make that go away.
But the market won’t reject the iPad over Flash any more than they did the iPhone and iPod. They will snap it up despite the lack of Flash, and get good value from it, and enjoy real games instead of Flash games, and wait for a real Hulu app (which is supposedly coming).
The vocal minority of Flash defenders will continue to complain—but they’ll still have no good, intuitive solution to offer for the mouseover problem. They themselves would HATE Flash on the iPad if they actually tried it. Many sites couldn’t work anyway (they NEED a mouse) and what did run would be slow and crashy and burn battery.
(And yes, these videos are a big embarrassment! Dumb. Unless they know those specific sites are moving to a non-Flash solution! Sooner or later they’ll have to.)