Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2014

[Doctor Q]

This is the 22nd edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003 (July); 2004 (January, July); 2005 (January, July); 2006 (January, July); 2007 (January, July); 2008 (January, July); 2009 (January, July); 2010 (January, July); 2011 (January, July); 2012 (January, July); 2013 (January, July)
​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (January 3rd).

This thread is for general interest and discussion of posting habits, and is not an encouragement to build your post count inappropriately.


Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2014

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 1    GGJstudios      40,208   9.2    1      0
 2    GoCubsGo        34,364   7.7    2      0
 3    mad jew         32,195   0.0    3      0
 4    Doctor Q        31,349   2.7    4      0
 5    Applejuiced     29,977   8.9    7     +2
 6    mkrishnan       29,621   0.0    5     -1
 7    Eidorian        28,764   1.0    6     -1
 8    rdowns          26,298   1.9    8      0
 9    robbieduncan    24,416   3.2   10     +1
10    Abstract        24,141   0.0    9     -1
11    maflynn         24,128  20.2   16     +5
12    jsw             22,786   1.6   11     -1
13    Mr. Anderson    22,411   0.1   12     -1
14    Blue Velvet     21,626   0.0   13     -1
15    Hellhammer      21,507   0.3   14     -1
16    simsaladimbamba 21,168   3.6   15     -1
17    Dagless         19,796   0.7   18     +1
18    bartelby        19,787   0.0   17     -1
19    Jaffa Cake      19,601   1.6   20     +1
20    iGary           19,583   0.0   19     -1
21    miles01110      19,264   0.0   21      0
22    PlaceofDis      19,234   0.0   22      0
23    alphaod         19,204   3.7   25     +2
24    iBlue           19,174   0.0   23     -1
25    edesignuk       19,104   0.0   24     -1

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
26    ~Shard~         18,349   0.0   26      0
27    MacNut          17,756   2.9   28     +1
28    MacDawg         17,336   1.3   29     +1
29    DoFoT9          17,282   0.2   27     -2
30    dukebound85     17,224   0.9   30      0
31    balamw          16,801   3.6   34     +3
32    Peace           16,684   3.5   35     +3
33    wdlove          16,571   0.0   31     -2
34    iJohnHenry      16,466   0.0   32     -2
35    -aggie-         16,415   0.0   33     -2
36    Nermal          16,092   2.8   38     +2
37    yellow          15,913   0.0   36     -1
38    sushi           15,633   0.0   37     -1
39    devilot         15,532   0.0   39      0
40    WildCowboy      15,479   0.8   40      0
41    twoodcc         15,108   2.9   45     +4
42    Surely          15,047   0.0   41     -1
43    KnightWRX       15,043   0.0   42     -1
44    MacRumorUser    15,017   7.3   47     +3
45    r.j.s           14,888   0.0   43     -2
46    Sun Baked       14,698   0.2   44     -2
47    jav6454         14,363   7.7  ---    ---
48    IJ Reilly       13,982   3.5   49     +1
49    bousozoku       13,951   0.0   46     -3
50    dejo            13,758   3.4  ---    ---

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2013), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Observations

• GGJstudios has become the first MacRumors member to pass 40,000 posts. It took him 5.6 years at an average of 19.5 posts/day.
  
  
• As projected last time, jav6454 (#47) and dejo (#50) are new to the Top 50. Contrary to the projection, Intell was only the 51st top poster and didn't reach the Top 50.
  
  
• As projected last time, Mitthrawnuruodo and yg17 dropped off the Top 50. IJ Reilly (#48) stayed on the Top 50, contrary to the projection.
  
  
• As projected last time, Applejuiced passed mkrishnan and Eidorian, but didn't pass Doctor Q as projected.
  
  
• robbieduncan's 594 posts in the last 6 months moved him past inactive Abstract, who posted only once in 2013.
  
  
• Only one Top 50 member exceeded 3000 posts in 6 months:
  • maflynn (24,128 posts total, 3,708 in the last 6 months)
  His 6-month post rate of 20.2 posta/day far exceeds his lifetime average of 14.1 posts/day and is way out in front among the Top 50.
  
  maflynn is a Moderator (with a new user title!) and his moderation recordkeeping duties account for some of the posts.
  
  
• Four other Top 50 members made 1000 or more posts in 6 months:
  • GGJstudios (40,208 posts total, 1,699 in the last 6 months)
  • Applejuiced (29,977 posts total, 1,630 in the last 6 months)
  • GoCubsGo (34,364 posts total, 1,425 in the last 6 months)
  • MacRumorUser (15,017 posts total, 1,345 in the last 6 months)

Other stats and charts

• Current Top 50 Posters (Chart #1, this post)
  
  
• 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
  
  
• "End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)
  
  
• Years of Membership
  
  
• Changes in Rank
  
  
• 6-Month Projections: Changes in Rank
  
  
• End of time projections: Changes in Rank

 

[ucfgrad93]

I love seeing these charts. Thanks for doing them.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to make some posts so I can make that list.

 

[iJohnHenry]

Humph, only gave up 2 places with my absence.

That must be a sign of something.

 

[Doctor Q]

Years of membership

Here's the traditional graph showing how long the Top 50 have been forum members.

Mr. Anderson has now passed a dozen years and MacNut, the longest active Top 50 member, reached a dozen years just today.

There are now 15 Top 50 members (30%) with a decade of membership.

simsaladimbamba stands out as the only Top 50 member with a membership of less than 4 years (just over 3 years).

Years of Membership

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[Apple fanboy]

Interesting reading as usual. Thanks for putting these together. I post pretty much everyday, but compared to some of these guys I wonder if they have jobs!
Give me another 19 years and I might just squeeze in there!
Sad that nearly half of the list are inactive. Have they all gone over to the dark side (PC/Android)?

 

[citizenzen]

I might be in the top 50 Time-Outs.

 

[Hellhammer]

Surprised to see that I'm still so high on the list.

 

[iJohnHenry]

I might be in the top 50 Time-Outs.

Bets who is higher???

 

[citizenzen]

Bets???

Wouldn't you love to see that list?

 

[Doctor Q]

Changes in Rank

Another tradition: a graph showing changes in rank. Last time we had increases up to 11 slots, but this time the maximum increase was only 5.

Both jav6454 and maflynn hit that mark.

A number of members dropped 2 slots.

That must be a sign of something.

It's a sign that with so many years of accumulated posts, ranks change very slowly. High posters rise gradually, and low posters drop very slowly. mad jew is still #3 despite his absence from the forums for over 4 years.

An even larger number of Top 50 members dropped 1 slot, among them a number of moderators who retired to the real world.

Eleven members maintained their rank from 6 months ago, only some of them active posters.

Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[Doctor Q]

6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2014

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2014     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 1    GGJstudios      41,889    1     0
 2    GoCubsGo        35,774    2     0
 3    mad jew         32,195    3     0
 4    Doctor Q        31,844    4     0
 5    Applejuiced     31,589    5     0
 6    mkrishnan       29,624    6     0
 7    Eidorian        28,947    7     0
 8    maflynn         27,796   11    +3
 9    rdowns          26,638    8    -1
10    robbieduncan    25,004    9    -1
11    Abstract        24,140   10    -1
12    jsw             23,072   12     0
13    Mr. Anderson    22,411   13     0
14    simsaladimbamba 21,827   16    +2
15    Blue Velvet     21,634   14    -1
16    Hellhammer      21,554   15    -1
17    Dagless         19,921   17     0
18    Jaffa Cake      19,900   19    +1
19    alphaod         19,883   23    +4
20    bartelby        19,786   18    -2
21    iGary           19,583   20    -1
22    miles01110      19,264   21    -1
23    PlaceofDis      19,234   22    -1
24    iBlue           19,176   24     0
25    edesignuk       19,107   25     0

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2014     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
26    ~Shard~         18,349   26     0
27    MacNut          18,287   27     0
28    MacDawg         17,570   28     0
29    balamw          17,453   31    +2
30    dukebound85     17,393   30     0
31    Peace           17,315   32    +1
32    DoFoT9          17,313   29    -3
33    Nermal          16,600   36    +3
34    wdlove          16,571   33    -1
35    iJohnHenry      16,472   34    -1
36    -aggie-         16,418   35    -1
37    MacRumorUser    16,347   44    +7
38    yellow          15,916   37    -1
39    jav6454         15,759   47    +8
40    twoodcc         15,637   41    +1
41    sushi           15,632   38    -3
42    WildCowboy      15,619   40    -2
43    devilot         15,532   39    -4
44    Surely          15,047   42    -2
45    KnightWRX       15,041   43    -2
46    Intell          14,987  ---   ---
47    SandboxGeneral  14,893  ---   ---
48    r.j.s           14,888   45    -3
49    Sun Baked       14,730   46    -3
50    dejo            14,372   50     0

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection Jul 4, 2014 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
   
3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2014 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

Observations

• Projected to join the Top 50: Intell and SandboxGeneral
  
  
• Projected to drop off the Top 50: IJ Reilly and bousozoku
  
  
• According to these projections, six months from now Doctor Q will be barely hanging onto slot #4, a few hundred posts ahead of Applejuiced, but Applejuiced should pass him within the subsequent month. Doctor Q will drop to #5, but will regain the #4 slot by passing mad jew before the end of the year.
  
  
• maflynn is projected to reach the Top 10, bumping Abstract out of the Top 10 and passing rdowns and robbieduncan, who will drop from #8/#9 to #9/#10.
  
  
• With a slight shuffling of the #14/#15/#16 slots, simsaladimbamba is projected to push ahead of Blue Velvet and Hellhammer.
  
  
• There must be an invisible barrier between the Top 25 and the Next 25 since, once again, no members are projected to cross the above-below-25 border!

 

[Doctor Q]

6-Month Projections: Changes in Rank

Here's a graph showing who is projected to move up or down over the next 6 months and by how many positions.

It takes serious work to rise in rank by more than a few slots, but two users are projected to accomplish it:

Biggest projected gain: jav6454 (up 8 slots) and MacRumorUser (up 7 slots)

Biggest project loss: devilot (down 4 slots)
​

Stability is still the rule, with 17 users projected to retain their position over the next 6 months and 32 users projected to change rank by 1 or less.

It seems that WildCowboy can no longer keep up with the rest of the top forum posters. Rumor has it that he spends much of his time writing news articles for some tech website.

Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[Doctor Q]

"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2014

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 1    maflynn           17.04    11    +10     4     +3
 2    GGJstudios        15.86     1     -1     1     -1
 3    SandboxGeneral    13.01   ---    ---     6     +3
 4    Applejuiced       12.46     5     +1     3     -1
 5    simsaladimbamba   11.24    16    +11     2     -3
 6    Macman45          10.87   ---    ---     5     -1
 7    Weaselboy         10.09   ---    ---    12     +5
 8    mattopotamus       9.65   ---    ---   ---    ---
 9    Intell             8.29   ---    ---     8     -1
10    GoCubsGo           8.14     2     -8     9     -1
11    Rogifan            7.64   ---    ---   ---    ---
12    samcraig           7.49   ---    ---     7     -5
13    MacRumorUser       6.92    44    +31    13      0
14    Renzatic           6.91   ---    ---   ---    ---
15    Bear               6.79   ---    ---    24     +9
16    gnasher729         6.31   ---    ---    17     +1
17    ucfgrad93          6.18   ---    ---    19     +2
18    Shrink             6.11   ---    ---   ---    ---
19    jav6454            5.97    47    +28    26     +7
20    KPOM               5.36   ---    ---    15     -5
21    charlituna         5.02   ---    ---    40    +19
22    darngooddesign     4.94   ---    ---    25     +3
23    Night Spring       4.84   ---    ---    30     +7
24    Peace              4.82    32     +8    14    -10
25    balamw             4.76    31     +6    16     -9

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
26    dhlizard           4.62   ---    ---    18     -8
27    theSeb             4.60   ---    ---   ---    ---
28    roadbloc           4.48   ---    ---    29     +1
29    alphaod            4.35    23     -6    20     -9
30    old-wiz            4.15   ---    ---    38     +8
31    dejo               3.95    50    +19    23     -8
32    Chupa Chupa        3.76   ---    ---    33     +1
33    OllyW              3.72   ---    ---    35     +2
34    BaldiMac           3.64   ---    ---    44    +10
35    annk               3.56   ---    ---    49    +14
36    stridemat          3.55   ---    ---    27     -9
37    kdarling           3.33   ---    ---    43     +6
38    ChrisA             3.12   ---    ---   ---    ---
39    robbieduncan       3.12     9    -30    39      0
40    mcdj               3.10   ---    ---   ---    ---
41    blueroom           3.08   ---    ---   ---    ---
42    AidenShaw          2.96   ---    ---    34     -8
43    daneoni            2.83   ---    ---    28    -15
44    philipma1957       2.82   ---    ---    22    -22
45    Huntn              2.79   ---    ---   ---    ---
46    cube               2.79   ---    ---   ---    ---
47    rhett7660          2.78   ---    ---    47      0
48    Nermal             2.75    36    -12    45     -3
49    mrsir2009          2.63   ---    ---    21    -28
50    SilentPanda        2.59   ---    ---   ---    ---

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
   
3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See the definition of weighted rate that I've used since July 2006.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank as of January 2014 (Chart 1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
   
6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (July 2013, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
   
7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

These are the true "top posters" at MacRumors since they currently make the most posts over any given time period.


Observations

• maflynn's recent post rate of 20.2 posts/day and overall post rate of 14.1 posts/day combine to produce a weighted post rate of 17.04 posts/day. That's enough to top the chart and bump GGJstudios out of the top slot.
  
  
• GGJstudios still has a healthy weighted post rate of his own, at 15.86 posts/day.
  
  
• All of the other users who have weighted post rates over 10.00 have been in the Top 50 End-of-Time before: SandboxGeneral (13.01), Applejuiced (12.46), simsaladimbamba (11.24), Macman45 (10.87), and Weaselboy (10.09).
  
  
• Weaselboy is new to the Top 10 End-of-Time, moving up from #12 in the End-of-Time rankings from 6 months ago.
  
  
• mattopotamus is not only new to the Top 10 End-of-Time, but new to any of my charts. Without being on my radar before, mattopotamus joined in June 2012 and hit the ground running.
  
  
• When two members join the Top 10 End-of-Time, 2 other members must leave. That was samcraig, who dropped to #12 End-of-Time, and KnightWRX, who dropped off the Top 10 and the Top 50 entirely (no posts in the last 6 months).
  
  
• The minimum post rate required for the End-of-Time Top 50 has grown from 2.5 posts/day to 2.6 posts/day.
  
  
• Administrators and moderators may be underrepresented in this chart because their weighted averages include an artificial drop that I mentioned 6 months ago, a result of a vBulletin quirks and some changes in how moderation notes were maintained. The effect will wear off gradually since the weighted average gives less weight to older post rates.
  
  
• Of the Top 50 posters, Chupa Chupa has been a member the longest (since July 2002). mattopotamus joined most recently. Bear remains the Top 50 End-of-Time member with the 2nd-longest membership.
  
  
• The member coming closest to the End-of-Time Top 50 without making the list was MacNut, who would also have become the Top 50 member with the longest membership.

 

[Doctor Q]

End of Time projections: changes in rank

This graph shows the changes in rank from the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. In other words, it shows rank changes based on changes in the post rate of each member. Only members who were in both Top 50 lists are included.

Three members are projected to hold their spots in the End of Time Top 50: MacRumorUser, robbieduncan, and rhett7660.

There are some wild changes in fortune at the top and bottom. Going up we have charlituna (up 19 slots!), annk (up 14), and BaldiMac (up 10). At the other end we have mrsir2009 (down 28 slots), philipma1957 (down 22), and daneoni (down 15).

Interestingly, Peace dropped 10 slots from the previous End-of-Time chart to this End-of-Time chart, but is projected to gain one slot in the overall Top 50 (by post count) over the next 6 months.

Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[lunaoso]

I love reading these. The math part of me just freaks out.

 

[Doctor Q]

jav6454, who is new to the Top 50, mentioned these Top Poster threads to me the other day. I've been tracking jav6454's history since 2010 and it shows a consistent climb over the years.

jav6454's Posting History

click for the full-size graph


​

 

[Sun Baked]

I'm glad that graph is linear and not exponential.

Would have to wonder if it was.

 

[jav6454]

jav6454, who is new to the Top 50, mentioned these Top Poster threads to me the other day. I've been tracking jav6454's history since 2010 and it shows a consistent climb over the years.


[...]

It's nice to see my post count shows consistency. Regardless that sometimes I disappear for extended periods of time.

 

[Beeplance]

Is GGJstudios still active in this forums?

It would be interesting if he remains consistent in his forum participation; he may be able to hold on to his reigning position if he continues to do so.

 

[roadbloc]

Thanks again Doctor Q for another fine set of statistics. One day I may make it to one of these charts.

 

[maflynn]

[*]Only one Top 50 member exceeded 3000 posts in 6 months:

• maflynn (24,128 posts total, 3,708 in the last 6 months)

His 6-month post rate of 20.2 posta/day far exceeds his lifetime average of 14.1 posts/day and is way out in front among the Top 50.

I think I'l get a dog, call him life, so I'll have a life

I was on a tear this past 6 months, I don't plan on keeping up that pace for 2014.

Great job Q - I love reading about these stats.

 

[S.B.G]

Fascinating statistics Q; I always enjoy seeing them.

 

[rdowns]

Is GGJstudios still active in this forums?

It would be interesting if he remains consistent in his forum participation; he may be able to hold on to his reigning position if he continues to do so.

The only sure fire way to tell is to open a thread about Mac viruses.

 

[maflynn]

Is GGJstudios still active in this forums?

It would be interesting if he remains consistent in his forum participation; he may be able to hold on to his reigning position if he continues to do so.

He's still active, whether he's posting as much as he has, I didn't look.

 

[S.B.G]

Is GGJstudios still active in this forums?

It would be interesting if he remains consistent in his forum participation; he may be able to hold on to his reigning position if he continues to do so.

Oh he's still around. You think he's gone? He's never gone! haha