Kimi will win the 2009 title, here's why.
First of all there are the stupid statistics. Kimi has been fighting for it in 2003/2005/2007 (2nd/2nd/1st) and for some reason it looks like he doesn't like testing while things look good. OTOH, the bad years in between force him to focus. There was also a good rookie year in 2001, but while he was driving a Sauber nobody can expect one being fighting for the title.
So, statistically Kimi will have a good year next year. And we all know statistics don't lie about the future
Second, there's this massive rule change coming and the big teams have always been able to take advantage of it better than the rest. Ferrari and McLaren are the ones that should be fast from the beginning, though Renault might surprise us if they can manage to keep it simple. BMW will have equally disastrous season together with Williams, and the japanese teams will suffer greatly unless they find some magic in the new KERS system.
Personally I'm not that interested in KERS at the moment, but the change in grip levels is looking good for Kimi who likes a car that oversteers. The new car has less aero grip on the back and more on the front, and it also has more mechanical grip due to slick tyres. And that also has proportionally larger effect on the front where grooves took off bigger percentage of the tyre surface.
That (grip balance) was actually the problem this year; the mid-season changes made the car understeer which was good for Massa but doesn't suit Kimi's driving at all. When they reverted back to the early season neutral settings, Kimi was fast again. Surprise, surprise; the presence of the king of all understeering drivers (Schumi) is not good for Kimi and the more Schumi stays away from the drawing table the better for Kimi.
Third, it has been confirmed that Ferrari/Kimi have massive testing schedule during the off-season. Ferrari will get loads of feedback from Kimi and the car *will* suit him next season. Expect a finn to win the first race! They'll be ridiculously fast and unless there's a tech failure Kimi will have a great start.
Reminds me of 1997/1998 offseason when Mika was forced into similar situation. There was also rule changes and Mika's massive winter-testing paid off well.