I don't even know if Belichick has a second strike. It's not clear if he did anything wrong on the allegations of spying.
But the ball inflation/deflation thing bugs me in two ways:
1) Yes this one is really bad and I can't defend the Pats even as much as I hate the Seahawks. The ball deflation thing is unlike unproven spying allegations, and though I wouldn't ban him for a year or throw him out of NFL, I would disqualify his team for Super Bowl this year since this year is where he allegedly tampered balls. If the NFL has the balls and tested them, then they know if they were up to code or tampered with. It's not a he said, she said argument since we are talking about just how deflated the balls were and what the standard says.
But if Belichick does something against the rules next year then dole out the punishment that year and this should all be about swift justice.
That being said I seriously doubt any team would deflate balls knowing that's against the rules. There's too much at stake like getting disqualified. And yes, fine them to but that won't hurt these rich players and coaches one bit.
2) How stupid is the NFL giving balls to teams if they are concerned about cheating and can't they control the ball like the MLB?