2016 Internet Trends Report: Global Smartphone User Growth Slowing as Android Outpaces iOS

[latweek]

This is probably what Apple has known and projected out years ago, and explains their interest in other technologies like cars and services, other emerging markets - while abandoning R&D on the PC/Tablet/Smartphone front. The numbers don't lie - Apple knows it will largely make little difference whether an iPhone has a big or little screen, a 16 GB or 32 Gb, or if a laptop has a retina screen or not. And as expected, they have made little advances.

Flame away, but it won't change anything. Consumer technology devices and their support are just not a growth opportunity in 2020 and beyond. This shows Apple is looking far ahead with their cash reserves, and probably explains why Buffet sees it too and jumped onboard.

 

[Abazigal]

What's the relevance of profitability in a discussion about market share? It might serve as decent tool for hijacking a thread, but other than that...

Simple. In a business, market share is the means. Profit is the end. All the market share in the world doesn't mean much if it doesn't let you turn a meaningful profit.

People are looking at the iPhone's relatively small market share compared to Android and using that as proof that Apple is somehow losing the smartphone war. Personally, I feel that Apple has never been stronger, as evidenced by its high earning numbers.

That slide, when viewed in a vacuum and under the wrong context, is meaningless. You cannot have a discussion about Apple's lower market share without also acknowledging that this is a result of its very deliberate strategy to target the higher-end (and more lucrative) segment of the market.

Personally, I feel that this entire thread is nothing but clickbait. I am not so much trying to derail the thread as I am trying to reframe the discussion into something more relevant and meaningful. You want to talk about market share? Do so in tandem with profits, not by itself.

 

[Abazigal]

Fair. Like me and one of the other posters were discussing, you look at the iPhone and then you look at some of the similarly or better specced Android phones going for hundreds of dollars less, then you begin to wonder "Am I getting the proper value for this $750 phone?"

For me, that's an unequivocal yes. Every single time.

 

[Abazigal]

A valid argument... Had you made it in 2007

And every bit as valid today.

Or did you miss out the recent controversy over Dark Sky's decision to go subscription based on Android, a full 3 years after it had been available on iOS. At a 1-time payment.

 

[Rogifan]

Is this the same chick that was pimping AOL and online startups in the late 90s?

 

[smorrissey]

Cook Cook do something!!

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Android to iOS is Windows to MacOS for this generation. Same story. Same sequence of events. Same company on the shrinking share of the market end. Same probable outcome at about 90%:10% in the coming years.

Did Windows winning completely kill our use or enjoyment of using an alternative OS to Windows? No.
Will Android winning completely kill our use or enjoyment of using an alternative mobile OS? No.

Move along, we've seen this same movie before and know how it ends. Both factions eventually settle as co-existing with one owning most of the share and the other feeling special because they buck the dominant system and "think different."

 

[smorrissey]

So the iPhone SE should sell for 100$ get serious

Who cares about an stupid SE when you can get a far more expensive 6s with the same processor and the same amount of RAM LOL THAT's serious...no wait that's stupid.

 

[sportsfan]

This is the flaw of capitalism. It requires ever increasing growth in a finite world.

 

[smorrissey]

This is probably what Apple has known and projected out years ago, and explains their interest in other technologies like cars and services, other emerging markets - while abandoning R&D on the PC/Tablet/Smartphone front. The numbers don't lie - Apple knows it will largely make little difference whether an iPhone has a big or little screen, a 16 GB or 32 Gb, or if a laptop has a retina screen or not. And as expected, they have made little advances.

Flame away, but it won't change anything. Consumer technology devices and their support are just not a growth opportunity in 2020 and beyond. This shows Apple is looking far ahead with their cash reserves, and probably explains why Buffet sees it too and jumped onboard.

Buffet is an old shark, did you see the first Steve Job's movie? there's a scene when Jobs is fired by that same kind of "entrepreneurs" the only difference now theres no Steve Jobs to save the day...

 

[69Mustang]

Simple. In a business, market share is the means. Profit is the end. All the market share in the world doesn't mean much if it doesn't let you turn a meaningful profit.

People are looking at the iPhone's relatively small market share compared to Android and using that as proof that Apple is somehow losing the smartphone war. Personally, I feel that Apple has never been stronger, as evidenced by its high earning numbers.

That slide, when viewed in a vacuum and under the wrong context, is meaningless. You cannot have a discussion about Apple's lower market share without also acknowledging that this is a result of its very deliberate strategy to target the higher-end (and more lucrative) segment of the market.

Personally, I feel that this entire thread is nothing but clickbait. I am not so much trying to derail the thread as I am trying to reframe the discussion into something more relevant and meaningful. You want to talk about market share? Do so in tandem with profits, not by itself.

Ah, so I see. You want to reframe the narrative instead of actually discussing the topic. As for relevant and meaningful... well, we're on an internet forum. None of this is. Neither relevant nor meaningful.

"You cannot have a discussion about Apple's lower market share without also acknowledging that this is a result of its very deliberate strategy to target the higher-end (and more lucrative) segment of the market." That's funny and ironic because, in that very simple statement, you just did.

 

[smorrissey]

Wait a minute but vinyl is back!!
[doublepost=1464885417][/doublepost]

iPhone 6s should start from $649 $349.
SE is so clearly the afterthought-of-the-year-new-device-in-an-old-body-with-newish-parts-almost. Apple has to recognize it has got away in the short term with insane margins and that approach is now showing in real data as one that is failing.

and that's correct Sir, my first iphone last year, an expensive 6s 64GB and after just a couple of months (not a year just a pair of months) a cheaper SE gets released (same processor same amount of RAM)....I got Apple's middle finger and i definitely didn't like it.

 

[bbbb4b]

I must say this doesn't surprise me as

1) Android makes way more budget phones than Apple.
2) Android really has come a long way since 2009 in both software and hardware offerings.

Competition is good for any company, especially Apple.

Yeah, as long as they respond to it appropriately, and in timely fashion.
We'll have to see how that plays out.

 

[Bubba Satori]

This is the flaw of capitalism. It requires ever increasing growth in a finite world.

I'm sure the people of Venezuela will be relieved to hear that.

 

[2457282]

The third chart really is impressive. half of all smartphone users everywhere are in Asia. Really puts in perspective why Apple is trying so hard with China. Not sure where India falls on the chart (I would assume MEA or Asia), but that will also be a big impact. So it clarifies why Timmy keeps traveling over there. For all the doubters here, take out Asia and MAE and run the numbers again to see where iOS vs Android sits.

 

[AppStoreNerd]

thank god i dont getting ripped off from apple anymore. i use a nexus 6p and i am planning to buy a chromebook and use my mac as a backup. i still havent decide what to do with my ipad although i wont be replacing it with anything when it dies

 

[jujufreeze]

I wish some of these 'analysts' would do a comparative report on profitability of iOS vs other software over same period of time... What is the use in being a market leader when your profits are wafer thin?

Profits aren't everything. Amazon may never make money but no one cares.

 

[sk1wbw]

And Toyota sales continue to outpace the sales of the F150, and Windows desktops continue to outpace the Mac... must we hear this same ******** drivvle constantly?

 

[jujufreeze]

Good to see that you care. People should care. The more sales and money Apple makes, the more money they have to plow back into R&D to improve their products and come up with new product.

Oh please. After years of hundreds of billions in the bank Apple is barely scratching the surface of make itunes semi-user friendly again.

 

[cardfan]

Android to iOS is Windows to MacOS for this generation. Same story. Same sequence of events. Same company on the shrinking share of the market end. Same probable outcome at about 90%:10% in the coming years.

Did Windows winning completely kill our use or enjoyment of using an alternative OS to Windows? No.
Will Android winning completely kill our use or enjoyment of using an alternative mobile OS? No.

Move along, we've seen this same movie before and know how it ends. Both factions eventually settle as co-existing with one owning most of the share and the other feeling special because they buck the dominant system and "think different."

Yep, pretty much. The only way Apple could compete for OS market share would be to license iOS out. Android and windows are different animals. Apple was never going to win that battle and has no intention of trying to do so as it relies on being a premium brand, targeting the higher end of mainstream consumers (hardly the majority), selling at a required margin.

 

[H2SO4]

Cant have the cake and eat it.

When I bought my first PowerMac G4 I thought I did, and then the bean counters stepped in.

 

[damir00]

I just want a dual-sim iPhone....

 

[Glassed Silver]

People want value for money. Do iPhone's offer the value than Android phones do?

There's only so long Apple can rely on "thinner, faster, better camera"....
[doublepost=1464879393][/doublepost]

If there were "millions" of Android phones are sitting on shelves unsold, retailers wouldn't stock them. It costs retailers money. So, we can be sure that Android phones are selling in sufficient quantity that the "units shipped" vs "units sold" is both tired and not particularly relevant argument.

I agree, the difference in shipments vs. sales only really matters for a certain amount of time after the launch of a specific product or product type.
Long-term, with high-cost products, you're not looking at the goods being shipped back getting dumped in a landfill.

Hey E.T. for the Atari 2600, what's up?

Glassed Silver:ios

 

[latweek]

This is the flaw of capitalism. It requires ever increasing growth in a finite world.

What does that remind me of.....oh yeah, Cancer.

 

[diipii]

Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers partner Mary Meeker recently shared her annual Internet Trends report for 2016, showcasing a presentation of 213 slides covering a range of topics from global life expectancy to the ongoing market battle between iOS and Android.

Concerning the specific battle between iOS and Android, Meeker notes that over the past six years iOS has seen just a two percentage point increase in market share, while Android has exploded from a 4 percent presence in the industry in 2009 to a massive 81 percent in 2015. The pattern is expected to continue, with Meeker projecting iOS will see a year-over-year loss of 11 percent in unit shipments as Android climbs another 7 percent in 2016.

Due to Apple's introduction of the lower-cost iPhone SE -- and the cheaper price tag of smartphones in the company's expanding global markets -- Meeker also expects Apple's average selling price per unit to dip this year for the first time since 2012. In that year, ASP dropped only 4 percent (from $712 in 2011 to $686 in 2012), but now the company is predicted to see a 9 percent decline in ASP (dropping off from $717 in 2015 to $651 in 2016).

Unlike in years past, global smartphone unit shipments are slowing "dramatically," for both Apple and Android-supported devices. Expansion for the smartphone market as a whole has stagnated, going from a peak in 2010 at nearly 80 percent year-over-year growth, to just about 15 percent in 2015.

Global smartphone user growth is seeing a similar slow-down; understandably, the largest markets with the least amount of smartphone proliferation have the biggest upticks in year-over-year increments. These include Asia-Pacific, which has seen a nearly 20-percentage-point increase in smartphone user share over the last seven years and now accounts for over half of the total market.

Apple has been attempting to gain a larger foothold in these countries, notably seeing strong performance in China in recent years and looking toward India as its next area of focus. Low-cost devices -- and a larger number of potential customers without a smartphone -- in areas like the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America also presumably helped those territories come out on top in the total rankings for global smartphone user growth.

Earlier in April, Apple reported its first year-over-year decline in revenue since 2003. The news led to a string of reports addressing the company's declining stock value and various "peak iPhone" comments concerning its potential inability to continue to grow in certain markets, especially where its flagship smartphones see annual releases without much dramatic distinction between models.

Meeker's tamped-down expectations for 2016 mirror these concerns, particularly regarding the increasing belief that the 2016 iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus will be iterative updates on the current iPhone 6s line, using a largely similar design but with new features like a dual-lens camera and Lightning-enabled headphone connector. An uptick is now projected for 2017's "iPhone 8," which is seeing rumors surrounding everything from a massively redesigned bezel-free display that features a dual-curve OLED screen to truly wireless charging.

Mary Meeker's 2016 Internet Trends presentation, and a download of the full PDF, is available on KPCB's website.

Article Link: 2016 Internet Trends Report: Global Smartphone User Growth Slowing as Android Outpaces iOS

Thanks Macrumors for the unbiased info. Certainly startling figures which have helped me choose my next smart phone. Android of course.