Re: SGI and Sun?????
Originally posted by eirik
While I seem to be undermining my own argument, its now time to get to my point regarding Sun and SGI in my subject line. Surely IBM has more customers in mind than Apple and itself for Junior.
Perhaps, but... I don't know, it seems like it could make sense. It's not a completely new chip - it's just a 64-bit PPC for desktops derived from a chip that already exists. So it can't be
that huge of an engineering effort. If its only intended recipients are Apple, IBM, and a few minor embedded device and rack-mount server vendors, I don't think that would be too far-fetched. If all these companies combined could ship a million units in a quarter (didn't Apple sell 800k Macs last quarter?), I think that would be enough to sustain the platform. Maybe.
Rumors not too long ago suggested that SGI was considering Motorola's fabled G5. Also, Sun, I BELIEVE (not sure), had considered embracing the Itanium but jumped ship having seen the initial results.
I'm not too familiar with Sun, but I do have some familiarity with SGI. I remember the rumors about IRIX 7.0 being ported to PowerPC, but I don't remember them coming from particularly reputable sources. Ryan Meader's macosrumors.com was where I read it, so if that's where the rumor came from, I'd say it's probably about as likely as a comet crashing into the moon and knocking it into the Pacific Ocean in the next 18 hours.
Though Sun and SGI both design their CPU's and outsource their production to other companies to fab, their core competancies really aren't CPU design. That's not to say they're not good at it. I'm just saying that their customers would buy Sun or SGI systems whether they had Sparcs or Mips chips in them or not. They buy overall system performance.
From a hardware obsolesence standpoint, it's true that customers buy overall system performance, but when a company forks over $50k+ for a Sun or SGI server, they are also making an investment in that platform's future. They usually don't want to see their vendor move to another CPU platform, as that will invalidate their hardware & software upgrade path. One of the big attractions of SGI systems is their great scalability; when a company buys a 4-way Origin server, they know they will be able to grow it over many years to fit their gradually increasing performance needs. There are still Challenge servers from 1994 in use today thanks to the fact that software and hardware compatibility with early-'90s SGIs is still intact. A move from MIPS to PowerPC would break this; so either PowerPC would have to coexist for a good while alongside MIPS on the roadmap, or it would have to replace MIPS, causing existing SGI customers to scream.
SGI is no longer as proud or influential as it once was, but it still has its niches in the high-end scientific, technical and visualization markets, and those niches appear to be pretty well locked up. So I certainly don't think MIPS is going anywhere. (And SGI doesn't either, as they've got the whole next decade covered in their roadmap, to the R18000 and beyond.) So this reinforces my opinion that a PowerPC SGI would have to coexist with the MIPS lineup.
The current desktop SGIs get their butts kicked by PCs in raw CPU performance, but they still own their respective niches because they can do things PCs just can't do. One thing SGI and Sun don't want to do is step into the ring (again) against commodity x86 machines. They don't have much choice but to add value to their products elsewhere. If SGI's machines were available with fast, x86-crushing PPC processors but cost the same very high prices, would they sell much better than they do now (enough to justify the transition)? I'm not sure they would. A faster processor would be nice, but if it weren't available, would this fact hurt sales? I'm not sure it would. But the situation as it pertains to Sun may be different.
The fastest CPU available in an SGI today runs at 600MHz and performs very well in SPEC (at least for its clock speed), besting the 1GHz Pentium III by a good amount. But one thing to consider is that it consumes only 18 watts of power. SGI makes a big deal of this; its VP of whatever says that they've given up competing for raw performance and are instead aiming for 16-20 watts in their designs. Why? Because SGIs have fantastic multiprocessing capabilities and performance increases in direct, linear proportion to the number of CPUs added, and because these CPUs can be packed very densely into racks whereas Itanium2s and POWER4s and SPARCs cannot because of their cooling requirements. So MIPS is not a blazing fast architecture at the moment, but it is still unique and healthy with a bright future.
Can you guys think of how Sun and/or SGI might be interested in moving to Junior? I'm sure its easier to think of reasons for them not. I don't mean to stick our collective heads in the sand by ignoring the 'cons'. I'd like to ask the folks here where common needs may exist for the potential Troika.
I'll let someone else handle this one... for me, it's a lot easier to think of reasons why Sun/SGI
wouldn't be interested in moving to "Junior," but that's only me.
Here's one more reason: Wouldn't it be weird if Sun and SGI used IBM CPUs in the same machines that are competing directly against IBM's machines?

Sun and IBM are bitter rivals. I'm not sure what the SPARC roadmap looks like - do they need a new CPU that badly?
Alex