I think it will be less crazy since the majority of the people camped PS3 saw profit there and tried to resale it on eBay. Buying an iPhone probably will come with a contract + all the other annoying paper work. It's a lot harder to re-sell a contracted iphone.
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3 Million iPhones on June 29th?
- Thread starter itcheroni
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I think it will be less crazy since the majority of the people camped PS3 saw profit there and tried to resale it on eBay. Buying an iPhone probably will come with a contract + all the other annoying paper work. It's a lot harder to re-sell a contracted iphone.
I now invite someone to persuade me you need the ability to change the battery in a mobile phone...
Onsite with a client, building to building, taking notes, and calling back to the office to confirm production quantities, ship dates, etc., all the while juggling calls to & from coworkers, other clients, the "home office," etc.
That, and the constant digital/roaming/out of service cycling in and out of those commercial structures, will definitely shorten the best-case life.
I have easily burned through more than one battery's worth in a single work day, long before I could get back to the car or hotel.
Depending on the veracity of the claimed "5-hour talk time", this could be a major issue, or generally not a big deal, but I'm fairly concerned.
Thats be GREAT....or launch early with 2M!!
But I am a bit scared about the iPhone launch...it doesn't seem like anyone know whats going one. My local Apple Store has no idea...they couldn't even answer if I would need a 2 year contract, and with the removal from the new ad, I'm hoping I won't. My Local Cingular store, said I could get a Razr now, and buy the iPhone on launch day and keep the Razr.(also I'd be in the 30day trail period, so even if I can't keep the Razr I can get the iPhone)
But I am a bit scared about the iPhone launch...it doesn't seem like anyone know whats going one. My local Apple Store has no idea...they couldn't even answer if I would need a 2 year contract, and with the removal from the new ad, I'm hoping I won't. My Local Cingular store, said I could get a Razr now, and buy the iPhone on launch day and keep the Razr.(also I'd be in the 30day trail period, so even if I can't keep the Razr I can get the iPhone)
No one reads Business Week, do they?
Come on, Business Week. Give me a break they are just a small publication that doesn't have any concept of how capitalism works Apple probably paid them to say that...
When the Big boys, like Business Week start thinking that this iPhone may be bigger than earlier expected. Guess what, I will be HUGE!
22 Days and counting, till I get my iPhone...
Al
Come on, Business Week. Give me a break they are just a small publication that doesn't have any concept of how capitalism works
Apple probably paid them to say that...When the Big boys, like Business Week start thinking that this iPhone may be bigger than earlier expected. Guess what, I will be HUGE!
22 Days and counting, till I get my iPhone...
Al
3 million is crazy, being a stockholder I would love for that to happen but no way. if they are trying to hit 10 million by the end of next year they wouldn't plan on 3 million at launch, even with all of the craze lately no way. I will be buying one definately and maybe one for my wife, but most other people I know are going to wait awhile and see the reviews before throwing down $500.
Well said! Finally some sanity. I for one believe they will have the 3 million ready on launch day. But I don't know why everyone thinks that having 3 million on launch day means they intend to sell them all that day or within a week.
I think it is a bold move, Apple knows they have a great product on their hands... The initial demand is great, and they want to be able to meet it at all costs. They could just have 100,000 or so for launch, but then when would they ramp up production for more phones? I don't see the problem, if they plan on selling 10 million before years end 3 million is a good place to start.
They are going to have to order them sooner or later anyhow, I doubt we'll see a revision before years end. It's almost like the philosophy of the iphone, buy it outright instead of subsidizing it. Same idea, order 3 million upfront to be ready instead of trickling in shipments as they come in.
Just my too sense.
-Roy
I doubt the 3M number as well - 1800 offical AT&T stores (6000 includes everything from stores that sell phones from all providers and those kiosks in the mall).
Even breaking it down to 1M apple online/200,000 apple stores/1.8M AT&T is 1000 phones per store. Not likely IMO.
1M would be a more likely number. Then its 500,000 online, 200,000 apple stores, 300,000 AT&T (166/store).
Even breaking it down to 1M apple online/200,000 apple stores/1.8M AT&T is 1000 phones per store. Not likely IMO.
1M would be a more likely number. Then its 500,000 online, 200,000 apple stores, 300,000 AT&T (166/store).
Well said! Finally some sanity. I for one believe they will have the 3 million ready on launch day. But I don't know why everyone thinks that having 3 million on launch day means they intend to sell them all that day or within a week.
I think it is a bold move, Apple knows they have a great product on their hands... The initial demand is great, and they want to be able to meet it at all costs. They could just have 100,000 or so for launch, but then when would they ramp up production for more phones? I don't see the problem, if they plan on selling 10 million before years end 3 million is a good place to start.
They are going to have to order them sooner or later anyhow, I doubt we'll see a revision before years end. It's almost like the philosophy of the iphone, buy it outright instead of subsidizing it. Same idea, order 3 million upfront to be ready instead of trickling in shipments as they come in.
Just my too sense.
-Roy
Agreed. I think Apple wants to update the iPhone more with software than with hardware. The only hardware update I foresee in the near future (though, I am not Steve Jobs and therefore know nothing) is a 3G iPhone. So, if I were to get an iPhone, I'd wait for that. (Some other people I know, however, don't really need 3G so will get an iPhone right away).
30 days
I just came from my local at&t store. (see how quickly the cingular moniker disappears ... it is just 50% shorter)
The guy said they know nothing beyond 6/29. He thinks they will only have 10-20, but also that he really had no idea.
Supposedly they will get their training for that location on June 27/28. They will have 'police' 24/7 for 30 days, and only the managers will be allowed in the stock-room and they will hand out the phones to the employees who will not be allowed to 'enter' to retrieve product.
If they are ramping up security for 30 days - they expect to have 'inventory' otherwise - why bother. Even if they 'load' the
retail stores with extra inventory, I still think the odds will be better at the at&t outlet.
As far as camping... I'm probably too old for that nonsense... Maybe I can take a 'nap' and go out there at 3am.. see that there are 200 people in line already and go back to bed and order online...
I just came from my local at&t store. (see how quickly the cingular moniker disappears ... it is just 50% shorter)
The guy said they know nothing beyond 6/29. He thinks they will only have 10-20, but also that he really had no idea.
Supposedly they will get their training for that location on June 27/28. They will have 'police' 24/7 for 30 days, and only the managers will be allowed in the stock-room and they will hand out the phones to the employees who will not be allowed to 'enter' to retrieve product.
If they are ramping up security for 30 days - they expect to have 'inventory' otherwise - why bother. Even if they 'load' the
retail stores with extra inventory, I still think the odds will be better at the at&t outlet. As far as camping... I'm probably too old for that nonsense... Maybe I can take a 'nap' and go out there at 3am.. see that there are 200 people in line already and go back to bed and order online...
Curious Question:
How long does it take (start to finish) to sell a single cell phone? I'm sure there's a lot involved, for example:How long does that all take? How long could the "wait" be at the store assuming it's packed full of people, given that everyone buying one will be taking all this time to sign contracts, set up the phone, etc?
- Q and A about the phone, service plan, contracts, costs, etc...
- Reading and signing the contract(s)
- Opening the box for the phone for programming and setup (phone number assignment, account information, etc..)
- Payment and checkout.
I bet that the lines will be long, and there will be a lot of waiting in order to purchase the iPhone.
Better bring some good books or your iPhone for watching movies / listening to music....oh, wait....
What it will be is hard to say, but in order to clear 1500 per store in a day it will need to take about 1 minute.
In reality it will likely take about 12 minutes total for sale, setup and getting all the customer info in. I am sure there is special software to make it lickety split to setup.
People wont be asking a lot of questions, the line will be pressure to make a quick decision and the salesmen will also be pushing to make a quick decision so they can move to the next customer.
After a week or so, people will be asking a lot of questions and a sale and setup will take a lot longer.
People in line will be filling their form while they wait. then they just scan it, should be relativly quick, no selling people already been sold. Signs will probably answer most package related questions. Lines still will be long.
Yeah I think 1 million sounds a lot more likely as well. I mean, think about it. 500,000 for the online store, 200,000 for Apple Brick and mortars, and 300,000 for the AT&T stores. Thats roughtly 166 phones per store. In fact, I'm sure that's what it is.
These expected numbers of units as well as expected sales numbers are really exaggerated. The problem with this is that they are selling a high dollar cell phone along with a high monthly plan
There will not be 1 million people who don't have a cell phone currently lining up to buy these. Really though, who do you know these days who doesn't have a cell phone? And you might wonder, why has the US cell phone market been so lacking in features compared to the rest of the world? Because people here aren't really willing or feel the need to pony up for a high end mobile device, no matter what it does.
But apparently this is all to change on June 29th? When it comes down to it, as strong as Apple's image is, George Washington on that one dollar bill is a lot stronger. $500/600 plus monthly fees, plus the hassle to switch or sign a new plan...
So what you are looking at is an extreme minority of buyers who are looking to upgrade into the iPhone. Some being swayed to Cingular just for the product, some upgraded their current plan. There is not a need for 3 million units, much less 1 million.
And as for camping out? Sure, theres always a bunch of idiots out there.
There will not be 1 million people who don't have a cell phone currently lining up to buy these. Really though, who do you know these days who doesn't have a cell phone? And you might wonder, why has the US cell phone market been so lacking in features compared to the rest of the world? Because people here aren't really willing or feel the need to pony up for a high end mobile device, no matter what it does.
But apparently this is all to change on June 29th? When it comes down to it, as strong as Apple's image is, George Washington on that one dollar bill is a lot stronger. $500/600 plus monthly fees, plus the hassle to switch or sign a new plan...
So what you are looking at is an extreme minority of buyers who are looking to upgrade into the iPhone. Some being swayed to Cingular just for the product, some upgraded their current plan. There is not a need for 3 million units, much less 1 million.
And as for camping out? Sure, theres always a bunch of idiots out there.
Yea, I'm not so sure about even having 100 iPhones per apple store, the extra may shift from the online store, or maybe we see each ATT store with 80 phones and the Apple stores with 200 or more.. But for those who want it ASAP (like me, because I need to do a review of it) I hope there is enough to go around.
Probably 3 million iPhones somewhere in the pipeline by June 29th, not all in stores at that time, and probably no more than 500,000 sold on the first day, and 100,000 a day for the first week. After that, an average of 25,000 a day over the next year would pretty much meet Apple's 1st year target.
According to an '06 report, over 30 nations have >100% mobile penetration (i.e. there are more active subscribers than population). However, the US is was at a (relatively) lowly 72%. Which means there is still quite a bit of 'virgin territory' there.
Nevertheless, by limiting initial sales to the US only; and to one network only, I doubt the iPhone (for all it's hype) can sell 3m phones right away. Of course, I'm sure AT&T will have to let existing customers who can't sign a new contact yet upgrade to the iPhone; otherwise they'd sell even less.
Nevertheless, by limiting initial sales to the US only; and to one network only, I doubt the iPhone (for all it's hype) can sell 3m phones right away. Of course, I'm sure AT&T will have to let existing customers who can't sign a new contact yet upgrade to the iPhone; otherwise they'd sell even less.