IF only 16gb & 32gb (no more 8gb) iPhones are rolled out at WWDC @ $399 and $499 ea., how does this affect the iPod Touch line, 8gb, 16gb, 32gb?
The iPod Touch 16gb would become the same price as the iPhone 16gb (or greater if considering the AT&T subsidy rumor).
If the new iPhone, with it's physical features updated and depth reduced 22%, .46 to .36 inches, and the iPod Touch currently at .31 in, the feature set and size of the iPod Touch's comparative value is further reduced.
This leads me to speculate the iPod Touch will be updated in some fashion at WWDC. A price cut is in order across the board, because there is no way they would introduce a 16gb iPhone for the same price or less as a 16gb iPod Touch.
Second point:
The iPhone was introduced July 2007.
The iPod Touch was introduced September 2007.
Both have been updated simultaneously since their introduction, keeping an even cost/benefit ratio:
Since November 2007:
- 8gb iPod Touch $299
- 8gb iPhone, 16gb iPod Touch $399
- 16gb iPhone, 32gb iPod Touch $499
Proposed changes:
- 8gb iPod Touch $299
- 16gb iPod Touch $399, 16gb 3G Slimmer iPhone $399 less subsidy
- 32gb iPod Touch $499, 32gb 3G Slimmer iPhone $499 less subsidy
These prices do not make business sense.
Here is what is likely to happen:
Scenario One:
- 8gb iPod Touch phase out.
- 16gb iPod Touch down to $299.
- 32gb iPod Touch down to $399.
- Education deal changes in some way (either free 16gb or free 8gb while supplies last).
Scenario 2a:
8gb, 16gb, 32gb 3G iPhone introduced and pricing scheme remains the same until September.
Scenario 2b (most logical):
3G iPhone 16gb @ $499 less a subsidy, 32gb @ 599 less a subsidy. Previous generation iPhones discounted and phased out. Effectively the same pricing scheme until September when new/updated iPod models are introduced. This is in line with the previous generation iPhone's (overpriced) introduction.
Scenario Three (most likely):
16gb & 32gb iPhone introduced and iPod Touch pricing remains the same. Apple uses the Education discount deal to phase out the 8gb iPod Touches until a September update.
This education deal, as it stands, should it stand, should give us some insight into the iPhone offerings.
IF this education deal stands until September, as the rebate and deal information states... the iPod Touch pricing and offering WILL remain the same until the September update.
Will the iPhone prices be overpriced until a future reduction in September?
What other scenarios can you think of, and what are the implications to the Education deal? The scenarios are highly dependent upon what the heck iPhone offerings will be introduced on the 9th. Size(s), feature set(s), memory capacity, etc.