Look, it's most likely going to suck for everyone in the US as the rest of the world is ahead of us. Prepare to be disappointed now and you won't be surprised on the 24th.
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600,000 iPhones being activated on the same day!
- Thread starter Mark Booth
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at least this time they have some idea of how many people they will have to deal with
But how many countries are getting the iPhone on the 24th? Wasn't it a limited amount?
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The stressful part for me is the sim card. I'll be doing an upgrade swap, & being as I reserved at my local Apple store I don't know how Apple will handle that. It would also suck to have the phone in my hands, bit not be able to use it for awhile, ugh!
Anyone else doing an upgrade swap? Any info on that?
The stressful part for me is the sim card. I'll be doing an upgrade swap, & being as I reserved at my local Apple store I don't know how Apple will handle that. It would also suck to have the phone in my hands, bit not be able to use it for awhile, ugh!
Anyone else doing an upgrade swap? Any info on that?
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Yeah but with preorders they were forecasting demand which was clearly off. They probably went with iPhone 3GS presales + x % when doing capacity planning. I'm hopeful att isn't THAT stupid as to not properly plan for capacity.
With activation they have harder numbers. 600k + remaining walk in stock = numbers. Much easier to plan for capacity with harder numbers than guessing
on historical data. I hope att isn't so stupid as to not throw everything they can in the next week adding capacity based on these numbers...then again it is att
Tara Luvs Apple said:
Yeah but with preorders they were forecasting demand which was clearly off. They probably went with iPhone 3GS presales + x % when doing capacity planning. I'm hopeful att isn't THAT stupid as to not properly plan for capacity.
With activation they have harder numbers. 600k + remaining walk in stock = numbers. Much easier to plan for capacity with harder numbers than guessing
on historical data. I hope att isn't so stupid as to not throw everything they can in the next week adding capacity based on these numbers...then again it is att
Assuming that all 600,000 iPhones are delivered over an evenly spaced period of 12 hours (delivery window, and store hours), and assuming everyone gets started on activation in a very organized and even manner...
That's 14 iPhones being activated every second!
Mark
That is the problem it uses a microsim so it forces a everyone to switch. Something AT&T could do is to try to encourge people to come in early and give them a new microsim and adapter for their current phone so some of the swapping will be done already. Then all they would have to do is pop it into the phone and be done.
Problem I see with that is I do not see apple allowing it to happen because that by passes a good part of their activation system. It helps out at least the smarter people who take the first offer so they will be up and running when the system is put 2 a crawl.
The people who I feel really suffer from the iPhone crashing the system are the non iPhone customers who get screwed by the iPhone bring everything down.
Assuming that all 600,000 iPhones are delivered over an evenly spaced period of 12 hours (delivery window, and store hours), and assuming everyone gets started on activation in a very organized and even manner...
That's 14 iPhones being activated every second!
Mark
It's a little less than that, because you have Apple stores opening at 7am on the east coast and closing 9pm on the west coast. That's 14 hours right there, but then add 3 hours for the time difference, and you have 17 hours.
600,000 / 61200 seconds = 9.8 per second.
And the above only applies if this did not include Canada/Europe/Asia (or whichever were allowed to preorder yesterday). If it does, that activation window is much larger than 17 hours.
Then you have Apple, AT&T, Best Buy, Walmart and RadioShack selling on a first come, first serve basis. I'm guessing 800-900k in sales on day one.
Ahambone said:As someone who will not be having a phone shipped until July 2nd (at the latest), I hope that June 24th is a COMPLETE disaster for all involved.
...and we hope yours arrives damaged in transit LOL
If it's anything like when the 3G came out, it will be terrible. I spent a few hours waiting for it to activate. I was stuck on the connect to itunes screen. It was such a problem I thought my phone was broken so I took it back to AT&T and they said no its to be expected because so many people were trying to access apples servers. Well the bad news is the iPhone 4 is suppose to be a lot worse since more people want it. I'm a little scared to be honest.
apple should start shipping the iPhone 4s early even like June 22nd
June 22 - 200k iPhone 4s delivered
June 23 - 200k iPhone 4s delivered
June 24 - 200k iPhone 4s delivered
by doing that can relax a bit of activation problem if not solve the whole problem...
June 22 - 200k iPhone 4s delivered
June 23 - 200k iPhone 4s delivered
June 24 - 200k iPhone 4s delivered
by doing that can relax a bit of activation problem if not solve the whole problem...
Anyone who thinks it won't be a nightmare is kidding themselves
It will be down for most of the day and night, imo
It will be down for most of the day and night, imo
Assuming that all 600,000 iPhones are delivered over an evenly spaced period of 12 hours (delivery window, and store hours), and assuming everyone gets started on activation in a very organized and even manner...
That's 14 iPhones being activated every second!
Mark
While I think Apple and AT&T need to be cut a little slack because it doesn't make sense to build out their infrastructure for a couple of bad days a year, 14 activations a second is very trivial. I design transactional systems such as these and we measure throughput in hundreds or thousands of operations per second, not tens. That said, it only takes one weak link in the chain, and we are faced with a situation such as the one on the 15th...
But remember those 13 activation a second they have to deal with requires massive update threw out their system. So each activation could require a few thousand operations and updates across the data bases link sim card to phone number. These means every hub they have has to have that update so when the phone connects to the network it is identified correctly. That means every major city in the US has it.
So for charges it might seem trivial but when it comes to comparing it to sim card linking up to their system. Also it is a system that was not designed to not handle that many activation request. It is design to be very robust and protect the active phone not new ones going in. Even on a normal day it can take 10-15 mins for your sim to get activated as it waits in line.
I would much rather have people have to wait a few days to get their phone activated that risk the network crashing in a certain area and knocking all the phones off line.
That's a pretty ridiculous claim to make. It's very rare for people who pre-order (from Apple at least) to not have whatever was released delivered on the day promised. There are a few that miss, most likely because of an issue with the delivery service, but for the most part, it runs pretty flawlessly.
People who pre-ordered from AT&T are another story.
