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75% of Early iPad Purchasers Already Own an iPad, Early-Adopter Upgrade Cycle Around 23 Months

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According to a survey by PiperJaffray, 75 percent of U.S. iPad Air purchasers on launch day already owned an iPad, compared to only 58 percent for last year's iPad mini launch.

Gene Munster, a PiperJaffray analyst, believes the U.S. market may be getting slightly more saturated.

Surveying 71 day-one iPad buyers, Munster found that the early-adopter upgrade cycle is around 23 months, significantly shorter than the general public's upgrade cycle of 30 months. Also, the average capacity purchased today was 59.7GB versus 40.5GB for the 3rd-generation iPad launch.
Of the iPad Air buyers who already own an iPad (75%), only 18% expected to keep using the old device and essentially all of those users were owners of an iPad Mini. We noted a similar trend in our iPad Mini survey in that 76% of iPad Mini buyers expected to use the Mini along with their prior full-sized iPad. We believe this makes sense as the majority of consumers that already own an iPad seemed to be replacing it with the Air entirely, but viewed the Mini as a companion device to the larger iPad. In other words, if a consumer owns more than one iPad, it is more likely to be an iPad Air and an iPad Mini than multiple full-sized iPads.
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With Apple likely selling millions of iPads this weekend, PiperJaffray's survey of 71 buyers is a small fraction but the broader trends could be consistent with the larger U.S. market. 1 in 5 of today's buyers picked up the 128GB iPad Air, while a 94 percent of buyers said they owned an iPhone.

The iPad Air still remains in stock on the Apple Online Store with nearly all configurations available to ship within 24 hours.

Article Link: 75% of Early iPad Purchasers Already Own an iPad, Early-Adopter Upgrade Cycle Around 23 Months
 
Article Link
https://www.macrumors.com/2013/11/01/75-of-early-ipad-purchasers-already-own-an-ipad-early-adopter-upgrade-cycle-around-23-months/
I don't know why, but the fact that a quarter of early iPad purchasers don't already own an iPad seems surprisingly high.
 
The very general trend is probably correct, but a sample size of 71 seems awfully small to get an accurate statistical representation of the trends involved here. It's not small enough to be anecdotal, but I'm willing to bet the error bars are pretty big (especially if the distribution wasn't geographically broad).

I'm just disappointed that my statistics class was long enough ago that I don't remember how to calculate this properly from an estimated population of, say, a million or two buyers.
 
I'm tempted to get a T-Mobile one just because the free 200mb of data. Unless this applies to previous iPads too, I think a lot of people might upgrade just for that option.
 
In other words, the very very early adopters are more likely to be fanboys, who buy everything Apple makes and thus already had iPads.

This isn't new, but it's nice to have proof.
 
I got my Air yesterday

Replaced the original Retina iPad.
I was going to get the Retina Mini as well when it comes out but the iPad air fits in one hand and I am not really seeing a need for the Mini now. Interesting.

When I showed the Air to my partner he asked if I got the Mini instead.
 
I used to have a lot of respect for Gene Munster, but over the past year or so I've come to the conclusion that he derives a lot of his "intelligence" from his rectum.
 
Don't think this bodes well for future sales of iPad if the majority are repeat buyers. Apple needs new buyers to make this product cycle a success.
 
calvol said:
Don't think this bodes well for future sales of iPad if the majority are repeat buyers. Apple needs new buyers to make this product cycle a success.
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Do this same survey again in 3 weeks when everyone is holiday gift shopping and the numbers change drastically. If you're getting an iPad as a gift, you likely don't already have one.
 
derekaw said:
Replaced the original Retina iPad.
I was going to get the Retina Mini as well when it comes out but the iPad air fits in one hand and I am not really seeing a need for the Mini now. Interesting.

When I showed the Air to my partner he asked if I got the Mini instead.
Click to expand...

I did the same, but I still see myself using the existing mini for writing, email, text etc on occasion, simply because it's a smaller device and is lighter. The non Retna aspect never bothered me as I use the mini for different reasons.

Besides I got $250 from Gazelle for my old iPad, so the upgrade was only $350 for a 64GB model. Plus a new cover of course...
 
TC400 said:
I love my iPad 2. But none of the iPads after it have been worthy enough for me to upgrade to.
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If a retina display isn't enough to make you consider upgrading, you'll likely be rocking that iPad 2 forever. In a device like a tablet where the display is 90% of the experience, I can't imagine what else you would want Apple to focus on.
 
Makosuke said:
The very general trend is probably correct, but a sample size of 71 seems awfully small to get an accurate statistical representation of the trends involved here.
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It's even worse when you consider that this survey was most likely conducted by standing outside of the Apple Store (maybe 5th Ave in NYC) and asking customers holding an Apple bag with a new iPad in it what their deal was. :rolleyes:
 
I can't believe people take anything Gene Munster says seriously.
 
I'm an ipad 1,2 and 3 user. I use my MBA more than my iPad, but I may upgrade to the retina mini. It's just too hard to type on the full size iPad.
 
Teste said:
In other words, the very very early adopters are more likely to be fanboys, who buy everything Apple makes and thus already had iPads.

This isn't new, but it's nice to have proof.
Click to expand...

At some point, people have confused the word fanboy with satisfied customers.
 
Makosuke said:
The very general trend is probably correct, but a sample size of 71 seems awfully small to get an accurate statistical representation of the trends involved here. It's not small enough to be anecdotal, but I'm willing to bet the error bars are pretty big (especially if the distribution wasn't geographically broad).

I'm just disappointed that my statistics class was long enough ago that I don't remember how to calculate this properly from an estimated population of, say, a million or two buyers.
Click to expand...

You can try this sample size calculator there : http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

With a population of 5 million, an margin of error of 5% and confidence level of 95% the minimum sample size would be 385. Surveys typically target 3% of margin of error, which would bring the minimum sample size to 1067.

So yeah, this sample is way too small to be used as a headline like this.
 
I wonder how many people are owners of hand-me-down iPads and have never bought one of their own. The number must be growing pretty rapidly. Do any consumer surveys try to track this?
 
iPad Air is very nice

Played with it at Apple today. Very impressive. I would have brought one home if the Notes app was easier on the eyes. The harsh bright white background of Notes was the dealbreaker.

I'm not a huge iOS 7 fan but I could definitely use it if Notes was the old style. I sent feedback to Apple suggesting it be considered as an accessibility option. Not real hopeful but nothing to lose.

The iPad Air is really something. Check it out.
 
SusanK said:
Played with it at Apple today. Very impressive. I would have brought one home if the Notes app was easier on the eyes. The harsh bright white background of Notes was the dealbreaker.

I'm not a huge iOS 7 fan but I could definitely use it if Notes was the old style. I sent feedback to Apple suggesting it be considered as an accessibility option. Not real hopeful but nothing to lose.

The iPad Air is really something. Check it out.
Click to expand...
Apple's notes app was a deal breaker for you? Wow. I think I could deal with that and probably find something better in the App Store.
 
Teste said:
In other words, the very very early adopters are more likely to be fanboys, who buy everything Apple makes and thus already had iPads.

This isn't new, but it's nice to have proof.
Click to expand...
Rather cynical. It's time to upgrade my trusty iPad1 and I had a play with the Air today and I will be getting one. The fact I can recoup some of the purchase cost by selling the old one is fantastic. Win-Win.
 
It's funny how Apple knows more about the market than people here on the forum. Delaying the mini was a good idea it looks like. More margins. Gold iPhone was a good move. 5c is a cash boon.

Glad the computer chair critics here aren't in charge.
 
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