Other A Foldable iPhone will Flop

[blairh]

A foldable iPhone will flop. Just like the Apple Vision Pro (AVP), it will be a niche product with limited appeal — not the next big thing. Yes, I know there will be a small brigade of you ready to jump in and tell me they want one, and therefore everyone must want one too. But personal desire doesn’t equal market demand.

When Apple announced the AVP, I made the case here on the forums that it would fail to gain general consumer interest. Not because it’s not impressive tech — it is. But because it lacks broad utility and solves no pressing problem for most people. The same logic applies to a foldable iPhone. Here’s why.

The main reasons I listed why the Apple Vision Pro would be a niche product right after it was announced:

• It’s an awkward form factor — wearing ski goggles on your face is not how most people want to interact with the world.
• It simulates reality poorly. The highest-fidelity version of reality is… reality.
• It doesn’t solve a widespread problem, and instead creates new ones: isolation, weight, cost, battery life, etc.
• It competes with — but doesn’t outperform — existing Apple devices like iPads, iPhones, and Macs.
• In short, it has no “reason to live” as a mainstream product other than niche applications.

Now apply the same logic to a foldable iPhone:

• Compromised form factor: it’s essentially two phones sandwiched together. Thicker. Heavier. Awkward. No matter how sleek Apple tries to make it, the ergonomics will suffer.
• Display trade-offs: to fold, the screen needs to be plastic — not glass and optics will be degraded. That means lower durability, more scratches, and likely a visible crease, even if faint.
• No clear productivity gain: it won’t be large enough to replace an iPad Pro for serious work or multitasking. It’s not going to make spreadsheets, document editing, or design work better.
• It solves nothing: nobody is asking for this. It doesn’t address a real consumer painpoint. It adds complexity to a form factor that’s already perfected: the slab phone.
• It’s outclassed by existing devices: iPhones are great at being phones. iPads are great at being tablets. Laptops are great at being computers. A foldable iPhone is a master of none.

Yes, I know some of you will say: “But I want one!”

Sure. And that’s fine. Enthusiasts like us often love cutting-edge technology. But if you look at the reasons above, this device has niche appeal at best. It will not capture mainstream consumer demand. Just like AVP, it’ll be a showcase product — a status symbol, a curiosity — not a mainstream device.

I suspect Apple is putting out controlled leaks to throw off the competition and has no intention of releasing a foldable iPhone. If they actually do release such a device, they will have lost the plot.

It's a iPad mini screen in your pocket. Yes, I am asking for this, and so are many others.

Ask current foldable owners how they feel about their devices. I always do this, and they all love them. The common mantra they tell me is, 'I will never not own a foldable moving forward'.

The Z Fold 7 is lighter than the 17 Pro Max.

Foldables are also making great strides. The Google Pixel 10 Pro Fold is iP68.

Nobody is telling you or anyone else to get a foldable. But your takes are just way off here. I personally have been waiting for years for the folding iPhone, and I will be in-line on day one to pick it up. It's the most important advancement of the iPhone since its initial debut. The category is going to thrive moving forward, especially with Apple now in the mix.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Making an argument inserting false premises that you assign to someone is a strawman. I did not post and say the device will flop because it’s my personal opinion. I listed specific, objective reasons. A foldable smartphone has to make compromises to be that kind of device and there now needs to be reasons why someone would buy it over non-folding smartphones and tablets that don’t make those compromises.

Respectfully, most of your reasons were not objective.
And some of them just provably incorrect.

iPhone:

• Compromised form factor: it’s essentially two phones sandwiched together. Thicker. Heavier. Awkward. No matter how sleek Apple tries to make it, the ergonomics will suffer.

The latest galaxy fold is almost 20 G lighter than the 17 Pro Max, so just literally straight up incorrect.
And “awkward” isn’t objective ever, it is literally a word to express a feeling, and everyone’s feelings are different. What is awkward to you is not awkward to others, and the other way around as well.

No clear productivity gain: it won’t be large enough to replace an iPad Pro for serious work or multitasking. It’s not going to make spreadsheets, document editing, or design work better.

Once again, this is not objective. This is just your opinion. And also, not everyone who has an iPad has an iPad Pro, millions and millions of iPad Mini’s are used every day, and there are already foldable phones on the market with bigger displays than the iPad Mini. So you’re assertion that the screen isn’t big enough is once again, just your opinion.

And my favorite part, the part where you literally completely contradict yourself in two different sentences…

nobody is asking for this.Yes, I know some of you will say: “But I want one!”

So which is it? Is nobody asking for this, or do some people want one? Because it can’t be both, those two things literally contradict themselves.

I suspect Apple is putting out controlled leaks to throw off the competition and has no intention of releasing a foldable iPhone. If they actually do release such a device, they will have lost the plot.

If I literally had a penny for every time someone on these forums says that Apple is putting out bogus leaks just to throw people off, I would be rich.
Ah yes, Apple signing massive exclusivity contracts for folding and bending displays with Samsung display and heavily preparing their assembly lines in China and India for a folding iPhone are just, you know, for the giggles.
Same with a notch on the MacBook Pro, and wireless headphones with big sticks coming out of your ears and a headset that shows your eyeballs on the front of it, all just made up for YouTube laughs.
Get real, Samsung is making folding phones, Google is making folding phones, Motorola is making folding phones, tons of Chinese companies are making folding phones that are quite successful.
If you truly think there isn’t any demand, and you truly think that Apple doesn’t want a piece of that pie, then I have unicorns and leprechauns as pets and flying pigs are our new mail delivery method.

 

[kamalds]

I have had two Samsung Z Folds - Fold 3 and Fold 4 - both broke within an year of light use.

 

[C7 POWER]

I can promise the Fold will not be a flop, and will actually bring foldables mainstream. Quote this post a year from now and tell me how right I am. I am super excited for Apple to make a foldable and I will for sure get one.

 

[ayephoner]

What are you omitting is that there are other devices it has to compete with: non-folding smartphones and tablets. List the reasons why someone would buy a foldable smartphone over a non-foldable one.

Because they want one.

Anything else I can do for you?

 

[Lobwedgephil]

I have had two Samsung Z Folds - Fold 3 and Fold 4 - both broke within an year of light use.

I've had 3 of them and a pixel fold with zero issues.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Foldables aren't intended to reach wide consumer adoption.

Why?

For the exact same reason that a Mac Studio or a MacPro or an iPad Pro or an Apple Watch Ultra or whatever the latest top of the line Nvidia graphics card or a 100+ inch TV aren’t meant to reach mass adoption.
Different products for different people with different needs.
Most of Apple‘s products arguably are not targeted or have reached mass adoption. The only ones that really have are the iPhone and (maybe) the basic $300 iPad.
The Mac is getting there, but in the world of desktops and laptops, the Mac is still a small niche.
Pretty much all of their other products are only targeted at people already deep within the ecosystem (Apple TV, HomePod, Watch) or extremely limited productivity markets (MacPro, Studio, Vision Pro, FinalCut and Logic, displays).

 

[GioGiusi]

A foldable iPhone will flop. Just like the Apple Vision Pro (AVP), it will be a niche product with limited appeal — not the next big thing. Yes, I know there will be a small brigade of you ready to jump in and tell me they want one, and therefore everyone must want one too. But personal desire doesn’t equal market demand.

When Apple announced the AVP, I made the case here on the forums that it would fail to gain general consumer interest. Not because it’s not impressive tech — it is. But because it lacks broad utility and solves no pressing problem for most people. The same logic applies to a foldable iPhone. Here’s why.

The main reasons I listed why the Apple Vision Pro would be a niche product right after it was announced:

• It’s an awkward form factor — wearing ski goggles on your face is not how most people want to interact with the world.
• It simulates reality poorly. The highest-fidelity version of reality is… reality.
• It doesn’t solve a widespread problem, and instead creates new ones: isolation, weight, cost, battery life, etc.
• It competes with — but doesn’t outperform — existing Apple devices like iPads, iPhones, and Macs.
• In short, it has no “reason to live” as a mainstream product other than niche applications.

Now apply the same logic to a foldable iPhone:

• Compromised form factor: it’s essentially two phones sandwiched together. Thicker. Heavier. Awkward. No matter how sleek Apple tries to make it, the ergonomics will suffer.
• Display trade-offs: to fold, the screen needs to be plastic — not glass and optics will be degraded. That means lower durability, more scratches, and likely a visible crease, even if faint.
• No clear productivity gain: it won’t be large enough to replace an iPad Pro for serious work or multitasking. It’s not going to make spreadsheets, document editing, or design work better.
• It solves nothing: nobody is asking for this. It doesn’t address a real consumer painpoint. It adds complexity to a form factor that’s already perfected: the slab phone.
• It’s outclassed by existing devices: iPhones are great at being phones. iPads are great at being tablets. Laptops are great at being computers. A foldable iPhone is a master of none.

Yes, I know some of you will say: “But I want one!”

Sure. And that’s fine. Enthusiasts like us often love cutting-edge technology. But if you look at the reasons above, this device has niche appeal at best. It will not capture mainstream consumer demand. Just like AVP, it’ll be a showcase product — a status symbol, a curiosity — not a mainstream device.

I suspect Apple is putting out controlled leaks to throw off the competition and has no intention of releasing a foldable iPhone. If they actually do release such a device, they will have lost the plot.

Before Vision Pro was announced, we knew pretty clearly what it would be, and I couldn't fathom why it was being released. I kept saying that Apple had to to have some other vision for it that we weren't seeing. It couldn't just be a really, really expensive iPad for your face. As it turned out, it was a really expensive iPad for your face. And it has pretty much flopped. It made about as much money in 18 months as Apple makes in a single day. It's user base is microscopic, and the ones still using it 18 months later are even smaller. It's user base is just slightly larger than the crowd who buys everything just to try it, which is not a market. Apple, in turn, has not invested much of anything into it in response. There is no follow up model, there is no cheaper Air model, nothing. Barely any apps, barely any content.

And yes, exactly the same will apply to iPhone Fold. At $2,000 it will cost more than buying both a better iPhone and a better iPad. Heavy, thick, lacking Pro camera suite and lacking Face ID. The iPhone Air is demonstrating how much people are willing to give up for a lighter and more portable phone. Well, here you'll be giving up even more, while getting thicker and heavier at the same time. And for what? To be able to unfold it larger? OK? What do you get from that? You get a device that is smaller than iPad mini, which is already the worst iPad, because it's too small to be used as a tablet. Before the iPad mini fans (all 6 of them) get their angry face out, listen. A tablet needs a certain minimum size in order to have tablet utility. Tablet utility means multitasking, full screen apps large enough to rival a laptop, and more. It isn't just "seeing things larger". iPad mini is too small for that, the minimum size is somewhere around 10 inches. Minimum. And the unfolded iPhone Fold will be even smaller than that.

I asked so many people what the practical utility of this was, and what specific things would be worth ALL of those many, many tradeoffs. The best anyone could come up with was: "I can see a PDF better". Well, great. That's not going to create a market.

I say this as someone who will probably buy one if it appears that Apple has conquered the many technical challenges in order to deliver a high quality edition. But I fully expect this device to make up less than 2% of iPhone sales, which means 2 generations of it at most, before eventually being discontinued.

I don't think the form factor will go away forever. I think it's just way too early. The concept of "pocketable device that magically unfolds into a larger device" is a no brainer. But it isn't worth compromising literally everything about the unfolded device.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Respectfully, most of your reasons were not objective.
And some of them just provably incorrect.


The latest galaxy fold is almost 20 G lighter than the 17 Pro Max, so just literally straight up incorrect.
And “awkward” isn’t objective ever, it is literally a word to express a feeling, and everyone’s feelings are different. What is awkward to you is not awkward to others, and the other way around as well.


Once again, this is not objective. This is just your opinion. And also, not everyone who has an iPad has an iPad Pro, millions and millions of iPad Mini’s are used every day, and there are already foldable phones on the market with bigger displays than the iPad Mini. So you’re assertion that the screen isn’t big enough is once again, just your opinion.

And my favorite part, the part where you literally completely contradict yourself in two different sentences…


So which is it? Is nobody asking for this, or do some people want one? Because it can’t be both, those two things literally contradict themselves.



If I literally had a penny for every time someone on these forums says that Apple is putting out bogus leaks just to throw people off, I would be rich.
Ah yes, Apple signing massive exclusivity contracts for folding and bending displays with Samsung display and heavily preparing their assembly lines in China and India for a folding iPhone are just, you know, for the giggles.
Same with a notch on the MacBook Pro, and wireless headphones with big sticks coming out of your ears and a headset that shows your eyeballs on the front of it, all just made up for YouTube laughs.
Get real, Samsung is making folding phones, Google is making folding phones, Motorola is making folding phones, tons of Chinese companies are making folding phones that are quite successful.
If you truly think there isn’t any demand, and you truly think that Apple doesn’t want a piece of that pie, then I have unicorns and leprechauns as pets and flying pigs are our new mail delivery method.

A foldable iPhone will be heavier and thicker than what is currently possible: I already mentioned the iPhone Air. A foldable iPhone makes compromises and becomes a worse tablet and a worse smartphone as a result. The objective compromises have already been discussed. A foldable iPhone has to compete with non-foldable smartphones and tablets that don’t make those compromises. My point is people will not both buy it and use it in place of non-foldable devices that don’t make those compromises. Yes time will prove me right or wrong.

 

[guinnkevinr]

Do you think we can save the fold arguments for next year? We’re all still focused on the Air vs. Pros drama… /s

 

[Moukee]

A foldable iPhone will flop. Just like the Apple Vision Pro (AVP), it will be a niche product with limited appeal — not the next big thing. Yes, I know there will be a small brigade of you ready to jump in and tell me they want one, and therefore everyone must want one too. But personal desire doesn’t equal market demand.

A foldable iPhone will succeed. Unlike the Apple Vision Pro (AVP), it won’t be a niche experiment — it has the potential to become the next big thing. Sure, there will be skeptics ready to argue that they don't need a foldable phone, and therefore no one will want one. But dismissing something because you don’t personally desire it doesn’t mean there won’t be broad market demand.

 

[Absrnd]

A foldable iPhone will flop.

The main reasons I listed why the Apple Vision Pro would be a niche product right after it was announced:

• It just rumor, it does not exist yet, you don't know

Now apply the same logic to a foldable iPhone:

• It just rumor, it does not exist yet, you don't know

Get over yourself, take a breath...

• It just rumor, it does not exist yet, you don't know
• you are not an expert.

 

[Arran]

…There used to be one phone. One flagship device that was released and everything depended on it. It mattered if it “flopped”. Now, you’ve got a base model, an air model, a pro model, and a large pro model. For iPads you’ve got base, mini, air, and pro models. Apple isn’t trying to get everyone to buy one device. They’re trying to get everyone to buy one of their devices. The iPhone Fold will just be another device in the lineup. Some people will want one, other people won’t…

Good point. With a diverse product line, Apple doesn’t have to be right every time. Pretty liberating IMHO.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Get over yourself, take a breath...

• It just rumor, it does not exist yet, you don't know
• you are not an expert.

I might actually be considered an expert. I have been running a digital agency for over 15 years. Have developed many native apps for Mac and iOS/iPad OS, have conducted usability studies for tablets and smartphones, written articles on these subjects for known tech news sites, etc.

 

[GioGiusi]

A foldable iPhone will succeed. Unlike the Apple Vision Pro (AVP), it won’t be a niche experiment — it has the potential to become the next big thing. Sure, there will be skeptics ready to argue that they don't need a foldable phone, and therefore no one will want one. But dismissing something because you don’t personally desire it doesn’t mean there won’t be broad market demand.

I'm not dismissing because I personally don't desire it. In fact, I will likely buy one. I'm dismissing it anyway, because other people won't buy it. The only people who are going to buy it are those like me, who have the money, and are curious about new technological achievements.

But what we know about it thus far tells me it will not appeal to most people. It will be a worse iPhone and a worse iPad, than what you could buy separately, for far less. That's a huge problem. People have to see what they're getting for their money in order for it to take off. You're not getting anything with this, other than a new form factor to play with. There is no utility, and there are endless trade offs made in order to achieve the form factor.

 

[Absrnd]

I might actually be considered an expert. I have been running a digital agency for over 15 years. Have developed many native apps for Mac and iOS/iPad OS, have conducted usability studies for tablets and smartphones, written articles on these subjects for known tech news sites, etc.

How come people always think they are an expert, please don't think you are an expert on Apple development.
Everything you say is based on guesswork and personal feelings, you don't work at Apple and are not part of the development team, it is as simple as that.

You can type as much as you want, but it is still just speculation on your part.

 

[GioGiusi]

Get over yourself, take a breath...

• It just rumor, it does not exist yet, you don't know
• you are not an expert.

For some reason, when people point out that what we know about the foldable is terrible, there are always people who respond with OH WELL ITS JUST RUMORS YOU DON'T KNOW.

Um, is that how it actually works? Why are the sources for every other iPhone that are 99% accurate a year out from release suddenly 100% inaccurate about this one? Could it be because you have no other argument to refute the statements, and now you have to resort to this? Enough already.

 

[GioGiusi]

I have had two Samsung Z Folds - Fold 3 and Fold 4 - both broke within an year of light use.

I'll be the first to say that I don't care what Samsung does and have faith that Apple will deliver something that meets Apple's minimum standards for durability.

And it will still flop.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

How come people always think they are an expert, please don't think you are an expert on Apple development.
Everything you say is based on guesswork and personal feelings, you don't work at Apple, it is as simple as that.

I’ve been leading software development teams building software for Apple and Microsoft for over a decade. This is my profession so yes I am an expert.

 

[Nom4d]

Why are you stirring up hate for the minority who use AVP. Let those who have the AVP enjoy it. I for one have not tried the AVP as i dont have any interest in it.

In regards the foldable. Need to see the finished product first before we see if it will be a flop or not.

 

[HouseLannister]

Let those who have the AVP enjoy it.

Yeah, 39% of people enjoyed AVP.

 

[Mojohanna32]

Foldables are niche, making up around 2% of all global smartphone sales.

you miss the point (and you sound just like the guys at Blackberry in 2007). market share is going to be small, of course, but if the segment is growing at 25% yoy, then it won't be too long before this makes up a significant portion of the overall market. If Apple doesn't have somehting in this space to compete with, they will end up losing overall share as more people move away from iphone to a compeititve folding phone.

 

[jsmith1]

The only legitimate question is ….will it flop side to side or top to bottom?

 

[Pbwallstreet]

you miss the point (and you sound just like the guys at Blackberry in 2007). market share is going to be small, of course, but if the segment is growing at 25% yoy, then it won't be too long before this makes up a significant portion of the overall market. If Apple doesn't have somehting in this space to compete with, they will end up losing overall share as more people move away from iphone to a compeititve folding phone.

It won't make up a significant portion of the market because it's a flawed product, just like VR headsets. They are niche products. Yes you can say I'm wrong and this will replace everyone's smartphone, etc. Time will prove me right or wrong.

 

[neuropsychguy]

Ok, that is a good list. Now my question is, when would someone use the unfolded experience?

When they want to look at a larger screen.