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[A] The Agency - GAME OVER -- SPIES WIN
- Thread starter ravenvii
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Yeah the first leader is picking blind (if an agent) so its the only round where you can easily work out the odds of them doing that randomly - after that it gets harder to calculate since some of the picks are forced.
Odds in round 1 mean very little when you are an agent. The 1st team leader is picking blind.
Thanks for the well wishes all! I think the one thing we can all agree on is that Cancer is truly a bitch.
I"m going to try to go through everything 1 more time and come up with a team.
in the interim, i'm up for suggestions. This far in the game we really have nobody out and out cleared, which makes it frustrating when putting something together.
I"m going to try to go through everything 1 more time and come up with a team.
in the interim, i'm up for suggestions. This far in the game we really have nobody out and out cleared, which makes it frustrating when putting something together.
Yeah - mscriv was cleared by Wood and Twietee which made him most clear until we found out Wood was a spy so could easily have lied - and makes the establish confidence in the first round suspicious. We also know mscriv's team had at least 2 spies in it if mscriv is an agent and at least 1 if mscriv is a spy. Wood plus possibly QoS or Koodauw, depending on whether mscriv, DP or QoS failed mission 2.
DP was cleared by Koodauw - but Koodauw put together the failing mission 2 which we also know had at least 2 spies in it. Wood plus either mscriv/DP/QoS who failed it. His team was mostly forced though since he was pretty much expected to include the 2 cleared people and the other 2 who succeeded mission 1.
So really we still have the 3 options
mscriv failed mission 2. Wood/mscriv/Twietee are spies and we have 1 more to find.
DP failed mission 2. Wood/DP/Koodauw are spies and we have 1 more to find.
QoS failed mission 2. Wood/QoS are spies and we have 2 more to find.
From a winning POV it's best for us if one of the DP or mscriv options is true as it means we only have 1 more to find. If we have 2 more to find I don't think we have much chance of doing it since 'a close eye' is now useless, so we only have another establish confidence and an open up that will be helpful if we're lucky enough for them to come out.
I'm not sure what if anything we can read into Wood's choice of team since we knew he was a spy when he choose it. He picked mscriv, Twietee, DP, Koodauw, QoS which is kinda clever since its the 3 people that we already know 1 is a spy plus the people that are clearing mscriv and DP - so it could just have 1 spy QoS, or 2 (mscriv/Twietee) or (DP/Koodauw) or there is always the possibility that QoS plus Twietee or Koodauw could be spies.
The only other thing to read from is what we think of TechGod's team in mission 3. mscriv, WoodNUFC, Twietee, Sythas - Wood voted failure. IMO that's either some good spy instructions (the post from Twietee about Wood failing it?) or Wood was the only spy on the team. Either way it probably looks good for Sythas - the only thing that looks like a spy instruction from Sythas was hinting that the new spy on the team should fail it - which would be Sythas if Wood and Sythas were spies so Sythas is probably ok.
Finally, the only person I can 100% sure tell you is an agent is me so I will Nay any mission without me on it.
Unfortunately I have no absolute proof of that but I suggested Koodauw switch the under surveillance from QoS to Wood which eventually revealed a spy and I voted Nay on both failing missions.
I'll go back re-read. I don't remember seeing DP question that and a response but I may have missed it.
I do remember you asking mscriv why give establish confidence to Wood and not QoS but you can't accuse Wood for mscriv's card distribution. That makes no sense. If your accusing anyone at that point it is mscriv and if he's guilty as charged you are too!
Why is QoS/Wood/me any more plausible than DP/Koodauw/Wood/me in that case? DP said he didn't want a team with you and mscriv on it before I came out and said I thought the 3 of you were spies and he also Nayed Sythas's team before I did (along with mscriv and QoS). However you seem to have totally ignored DP in this and focused suspicion on me.
I particularly like how your trying to imply Moyank and me are the other 2 spies - putting suspicion on the next two people to propose a team. That's very useful for the spies.
Sythas's team was already well on the way to being denied before I said I thought the 3 of you were spies - it had Nay's from mscriv, QoS and DP. If Sythas wasn't doing bad with his line up - then WoodNUFC's yay had the effect of canceling a mission with not enough spies on it to fail and wasn't a smokescreen - surprised at you contradicting yourself within the same paragraph.
It was very interesting to see how people reacted when I said I thought the 3 of you were spies. DP hasn't responded since, QoS says one short post whereas mscriv says DP is 'single handedly trying to cast doubt on the most trusted and cleared player in the game... me... is really suspicious' and my 'willingness to do the same is also discouraging.' whereas you try to make out that I'm a spy along with Wood and QoS and possibly Moyank.
Here's what i'm thinking:
Fenris
DP
Sythas
mscriv
and the 5th being either techGod or Koodauw.
Thoughts?
Fenris
DP
Sythas
mscriv
and the 5th being either techGod or Koodauw.
Thoughts?
Including Koodauw and DP is possibly dangerous. Since if DP was the spy that failed mission 2 Koodauw is also a spy - I consider it unlikely but if it is true it would lose us the game.
I would go with techgod, because we don't want DP and Koodauw in the same team.
Of course I was accusing wood once he cleared mscriv. That was the very reason I double checked on mscriv and not you in case you missed it..and I wasn't the only one. DP suggested it..are we all under cahoots now? Koodauw, DP, me, mscriv and woods?
In case you missed it: I suspected Wood and (a bit later) you for quite some time now. Moyank as well. And it all comes back to how QoS handled her tentative list. It's mind boggling how one could propose such a team with the knowledge of DP being a spy - that's occam's razor right there. Could it be a combo of Koodauw and DP and who knows? Of course but I don't see anything wrong with the way DP plays so it'd be playing it backwards suspecting anybody but QoS. That's at least my opinion.
The comment about wood: I read multiple posters saying "he's clean" (Sythas did at least) also missing the "two fails are needed only for mission 4"-rule and really wanted to point out the danger that a kami-vote from Wood would mean - becaues I thought about it for some time since I suspected him so strongly. In hindsight I probably shouldn't have said that but in reality I wanted to convince people to nay the mission, believe it or not. Since his kami-vote would lead to the possible assumption of others that he wanted to protect one of Sythas and me or both. So in total it didn't really change a thing, you suspect me and we failed a mission.
You're really making me want to put my foot in your ass. I don't know how many times I have to say this: I picked you because, at the time, you seemed trustworthy to me. We had, essentially a mostly cleared mscriv (which has been called into question since), and there were small shards of things to suggest you could be trusted in my eyes - which now, in hindsight, are gone. But all game long you have been playing Captain Hindsight - particularly with regards to Wood.
twietee said:
I also don't see why agreeing with someone's reasoning is damning evidence. Really? That's just ignorant, the whole point is to consider evidence and analysis as people present it. I am more than willing to consider it, always. That's not a new playing strategy.
twietee said:
Moyank meant that she and I go back and forth in these games. We're always either grouped together as potential baddies ("rick syndrome"), or when we disagree it's considered some kind of false posturing. Again, I explained this clearly earlier but I will say it again: all things being equal, I am more likely NOT to trust Moyank to counteract my own inclination to trust her because I like her. I've lost a few games due to my like/trust in her and it's just something I try to avoid all things being equal (key phrase). Perhaps putting her on the spy list was a little too far, but AGAIN, we had no factual evidence either way.
I'm an Agent. A sometimes annoyed, sometimes befuddled, sometimes ambivalent Agent. If you're "pretty sure" I'm a spy, you're "pretty" wrong.
Glad you're back @Moyank24 - you should really consider putting me on your team. I swear on Tom Brady I'm a good guy.
I'm sticking by the hypothesis that since Wood voted fail knowing it would be public that he was the only spy on that team. I could be wrong, but having played a spy in the first game I can tell you that picking up on clues from fellow spies is difficult. I though Twietee posted some pretty suspicious stuff in the second game that was stopped, guess what, he was an agent and I was clearly reading into things. Now, believing that Wood was the only spy on techgod's team means that techgod is likely an agent otherwise he would have put an unknown spy on the team to protect Wood and further our trust in him.
So, that means my current agent list includes myself, Sythas, Techgod, and twietee. I am the only double cleared player in the game and yes one of those clears was from a spy (WoodNUFC), but we have clearly established that he would have no reason to lie as it would only have cast suspicion on him. Sure you can postulate triple spy conspiracy theories involving Wood, Twietee, and myself, but they are not true as the preponderance of evidence simply doesn't point in that direction. Twietee has voted success on a mission where he could have easily failed it and protected WoodNUFC. Additionally, he could have lied about my status when the eavesdrop was played and many of you would have run with that theory as you were already suspecting me.
I am by far the most important person to be on a current team due to the fact that if the Open Up card comes out I can be trusted to give an honest answer for the agents.
There is legit suspicion on QOS and DP due to the mission 2 vote. By extension there is then suspicion on Koodauw who cleared DP. Neither Moyank or Fenris have fielded a team yet or been on a mission for us to look at their potential voting record.
So, here's how I see it based on where we are.
If DP was the spy who failed mission 2 then that means QOS is cleared and the combo of DP and Koodauw are both spies. That would give us the following agents, myself, QOS, TechGod, Sythas, twietee, and one unknown. The likely spies would be WoodNUFC, DP, Koodauw, and one from Moyank and Fenris.
Looking at these two scenarios I think the perfect team to field for this round is myself, Sythas, Techgod, Twietee, and Koodauw. If the Open Up card comes into play then we can use it on Koodauw and that will give us a final answer regarding his guilt or innocence which will in turn give us information on DP. If Koodauw turns out to be a spy and I'm correct about the other team members being agents (Sythas, TechGod, Twietee) then we still succeed the mission with 4-1 vote. This will also give us the ideal four person team to use in the final round.
I don't know of any other plan that actually gives us a reasonable way to get more information and possibly pave the way for an agent victory. This method has a chance of working whether the Open Up card comes out or not. If one or more of Sythas, TechGod, or Twietee are spies then bravo to them as they have played a great game.
Edit:
As I think through things the team would also work if we swap out QOS and Koodauw. With an Open Up card we could find out if she is an agent or a spy. If she is an agent then that means DP is a spy and if DP is a spy then that means Koodauw lied and therefore he is a spy. If she is a spy then we are in the same scenario with a 4-1 mission vote and a 4 person team to use in the next round.
So, the only teams I will not cast a nay vote against are:
1. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and Koodauw
2. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and QOS
Moyank, your willingness or unwillingness to seriously consider this strategy is, in my opinion, vital to any chance the agents have at winning this game.
So not fair or helpful.
So, that means my current agent list includes myself, Sythas, Techgod, and twietee. I am the only double cleared player in the game and yes one of those clears was from a spy (WoodNUFC), but we have clearly established that he would have no reason to lie as it would only have cast suspicion on him. Sure you can postulate triple spy conspiracy theories involving Wood, Twietee, and myself, but they are not true as the preponderance of evidence simply doesn't point in that direction. Twietee has voted success on a mission where he could have easily failed it and protected WoodNUFC. Additionally, he could have lied about my status when the eavesdrop was played and many of you would have run with that theory as you were already suspecting me.
I am by far the most important person to be on a current team due to the fact that if the Open Up card comes out I can be trusted to give an honest answer for the agents.
There is legit suspicion on QOS and DP due to the mission 2 vote. By extension there is then suspicion on Koodauw who cleared DP. Neither Moyank or Fenris have fielded a team yet or been on a mission for us to look at their potential voting record.
So, here's how I see it based on where we are.
- mscriv
- Koodauw
- Don't panic
- Queen of Spades
- TechGod
- WoodNUFC
- Sythas
- Moyank24
- FenrisMoonlight
- twietee
If DP was the spy who failed mission 2 then that means QOS is cleared and the combo of DP and Koodauw are both spies. That would give us the following agents, myself, QOS, TechGod, Sythas, twietee, and one unknown. The likely spies would be WoodNUFC, DP, Koodauw, and one from Moyank and Fenris.
Looking at these two scenarios I think the perfect team to field for this round is myself, Sythas, Techgod, Twietee, and Koodauw. If the Open Up card comes into play then we can use it on Koodauw and that will give us a final answer regarding his guilt or innocence which will in turn give us information on DP. If Koodauw turns out to be a spy and I'm correct about the other team members being agents (Sythas, TechGod, Twietee) then we still succeed the mission with 4-1 vote. This will also give us the ideal four person team to use in the final round.
I don't know of any other plan that actually gives us a reasonable way to get more information and possibly pave the way for an agent victory. This method has a chance of working whether the Open Up card comes out or not. If one or more of Sythas, TechGod, or Twietee are spies then bravo to them as they have played a great game.
Edit:
As I think through things the team would also work if we swap out QOS and Koodauw. With an Open Up card we could find out if she is an agent or a spy. If she is an agent then that means DP is a spy and if DP is a spy then that means Koodauw lied and therefore he is a spy. If she is a spy then we are in the same scenario with a 4-1 mission vote and a 4 person team to use in the next round.
So, the only teams I will not cast a nay vote against are:
1. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and Koodauw
2. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and QOS
Moyank, your willingness or unwillingness to seriously consider this strategy is, in my opinion, vital to any chance the agents have at winning this game.
So not fair or helpful.
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What? Yea, so I suspected him - openly and more than once, what about it? And for more than one reason - some were wrong (mscriv angle) others have yet to be seen about. How does that make me Cpt. Hindsight again?
You may quote me were I speak of 'evidence'. I just openly state (some of) my thoughts and hunches. And I have no problem at all with the fact that I'm going to be wrong about some but I don't think I personally attacked you or anybody else around here. You do understand though that since I know about mscriv it's either you or DP being a spy, right? edit: and I repeat that I don't find anything incriminating in DPs posts.
But I don't feel like arguing with you guys any more.
Honestly, I don't either. I'm just really frustrated and some of your posts seem to border on insulting w/r/t me in this game. Apologies if I attacked you. I am just vacillating from wanting this to be over, to trying to see through the lies and salvage a victory - of which we have many, many pages and a couple of crappy ass cards to help us.
Re: Wood, no, I was referring to when you considered my team to be evidence of my spy-ness for NOT including him. I pretty much asked for help, got none, then got immediately skewered for my selections. Still don't see how including you, on the other hand, makes me any more guilty. But, I'm through arguing the same dumb points over and over. I'm a freaking Agent and post-game I'll be vindicated on that end. I wish I had more evidence to offer you guys, but the limited cards have not been used in my corner.
Clearly those of us that are active are frustrated. It's unfortunate that it's only a handful of the players.
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That's DP's game and why he's such a dangerous player. He's always helpful to the team and careful about how he posts. His consistent efforts to support the good guys by offering theories, observations, etc. always point in the direction of him being good even when he's bad. Good players have a similar, if not identical, playing style regardless of what side they are on and thus it's hard to know.
not fair or helpful.
Mmmm, a good player lies effectively and also doesn't trust others at their word, so I don't think she'll be trusting me based on that. But I know deep down you guys (fellow Agents, that is) want to believe me. I encourage you to go with that feeling.
@Queen of Spades I agree that it's (pretty) frustrating. Obviously I don't want to lose this game but since our tools aren't sharp enough it's guessing and believing pretty much. But I'm a fairly bit stressed due work so my tone might be, unintentionally, more tense than it would normally. Please excuse that.
Just that we are clear and in case that you're an agent, I don't blame you one bit for your list back then! It's just sadly the only grasp of straw that I see right now. And yes, it'd be really dissapointing if DP and Koodauw and whoever is in it as well bring this home on cruise control. Although at least one could poke him for his cop out / flying under the radar..
Just that we are clear and in case that you're an agent, I don't blame you one bit for your list back then! It's just sadly the only grasp of straw that I see right now. And yes, it'd be really dissapointing if DP and Koodauw and whoever is in it as well bring this home on cruise control. Although at least one could poke him for his cop out / flying under the radar..
I am certainly willing to consider everything, which is why I asked for everyone's thoughts. I definitely understand the importance of this round.
TBH, I"m not entirely comfortable with Twietee, especially since he went on such an offensive to some of us who voting YAY on the previous mission when he did as well.
This seems hard to believe. I still don't understand why you would YAY the mission if you had such deep concerns with Wood.
DP doesn't work. We need either Koodauw or QOS for the plan to work. I'm not sure I trust Fenris. We have no background information on him at all in terms of mission voting history or team leadership. I don't put much stock in the yay and nay votes for teams because the majority of that information is speculation and one can easily get lost trying to make sense of it.
To be fair, there is still a scenario where you can be a spy as well. Honestly, the only person I can feel sure about it me, and I can't put myself on the team!
That said, your opinion is noted. I'd still like to hear from others.
I'd (obviously) prefer to be swapped in for DP.
I figure your trusting of Sythas and TechGod is based on hunch? I had a similar feeling about TechGod, but both have been fairly quiet (particularly TechGod), so I'm not sure.
The scenario in which DP and I are both Agents should be examined further, I think. We're basing our info thus far on turn two, in which myself, DP, Wood (voted success publicly), and mscriv were grouped and there was one failure vote among the three of us.
mscriv was tentatively cleared by Wood (spy) and corroborated by twietee - a player some of us have reservations about. The Koodauw/DP eavesdrop would have also been an extremely lucky break if they were the spies, which @FenrisMoonlight pointed out in post #500. There's also this point I made here, which put Wood on the pissed off offensive (wild generalization my ass):
I figure your trusting of Sythas and TechGod is based on hunch? I had a similar feeling about TechGod, but both have been fairly quiet (particularly TechGod), so I'm not sure.
The scenario in which DP and I are both Agents should be examined further, I think. We're basing our info thus far on turn two, in which myself, DP, Wood (voted success publicly), and mscriv were grouped and there was one failure vote among the three of us.
mscriv was tentatively cleared by Wood (spy) and corroborated by twietee - a player some of us have reservations about. The Koodauw/DP eavesdrop would have also been an extremely lucky break if they were the spies, which @FenrisMoonlight pointed out in post #500. There's also this point I made here, which put Wood on the pissed off offensive (wild generalization my ass):
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I actually agree with you about the pairing of DP/Koodauw (the luck of the eavesdrop), which is why I was leaning more towards you being the spy vote.
That said, I definitely have reservations about Twietee, and more and more with mscriv. That may be because I feel like he's forcing "his" team on me a little too hard. This is an important round (spies need 2 votes) so I want to make sure I get it right. We also have a no-confidence, so that helps if we put the team through and we get crappy cards that don't help.
I think this is the key part right here. I know you're in a tough position, but we at least will have a tiny bit of help (I hope) with the cards. I would love to hear @Don't panic chime in.