[A] The Agency - GAME OVER -- SPIES WIN

[mscriv]

That said, I definitely have reservations about Twietee, and more and more with mscriv. That may be because I feel like he's forcing "his" team on me a little too hard. This is an important round (spies need 2 votes) so I want to make sure I get it right.

Not trying to force anything. Sorry if I'm coming across to strong, but like you said this is an important round and I don't want us to lose, especially on a round when we have the advantage with the spies needing two fail votes.

 

[Don't panic]

oh boy, a few more pages of dense posts to go through. I am exhasted just at the idea
this game requires a lot more attention than the WW, especially when one is busy with other stuff, with the need to search every sentence for double meanings

Wow, I really don't know what to say about the turn of events that is taking place with you guys considering me. DP I was beginning to feel that you might be trustworthy, but single handedly trying to cast doubt on the most trusted and cleared player in the game... me... is really suspicious. Fenris, your willingness to do the same is also discouraging.

Here's one thing I know for sure. The spies are having a field day watching us turn on each other. With the way the rules have been adjusted there is no way to know for sure that someone is cleared due to the fact that all evidence is delivered via PM to another player. I've done nothing but try to help by posting consistent theories and I've tried to stay level headed about it the entire time as opposed to simply guessing on emotion. I haven't posted anything that could be construed as secret spy messages or instructions. There is no doubt that one could over analyze and hypothesize the guilt of any player in the game. What we've got to focus on is finding as many connections as possible to produce a more cumulative base of evidence as opposed to just isolated "could be's" and running with those.

No one with the exception of QOS has responded to my last post regarding the way WoodNUFC's confirmed spy status has opened up new possible clues about Koodauw's possible innocence, which in turn could clear DP. There's a possible chain of evidence and surprisingly no one has a comment or thought about that... really???

it seems we are all arguing in circles again.
again, the "most cleared" scenario, which i subscribed to, was largely due to the double-clearing.
once Wood turned out to be a spy, that clearing ceases to be of substantial value and you remain with a single 'clearing' by twietee, which is equivalent to mine by koodauw.
you are -correctly from your perspective- suspicious of koodauw and of me, so i don't understand why you don't see why we would equally be suspecting you and twietee.
and while wood would have no reasons to lie if you were an agent, he would have had a lot of reasons to lie if you were a spy.
with the possible additional point that you gave yourself towood the card to clear you (but not to twietee, since i did, so that helps you).
the point on koodauw putting wood under surveillance is fair, but i must agree with Fenris that it is not conclusive (nothing here appears to be ), since as Fenris points out in the next post (#847), wood was not the first choice for the card, :

DP hardly did it single handedly. It was me that found the post from Twietee that may have been a spy instruction and pointed out the chance of an agent picking that mission 1 team. Unfortunately for you, Wood being a spy makes the Establish Confidence clearing look suspicious. Giving Establish Confidence to a fellow spy is exactly what I'd have done when I was a spy turn 1 if I'd been given that card. And the chance of an agent randomly picking a 2 or more spy team and then giving that card to one of the spies on the team is less than 1/3 (28.6%) - not too low to make it suspiciously unlikely but low enough to make it more likely a spy chose that team and gave out the card.

Also, If the post we found from Twietee is an instruction to a fellow spy it makes the clear from Twietee worthless too. As I said, I could be totally wrong and the spies are laughing at us, but I'm considering all the possibilities.

Thanks for the information about Koodauw. At first glance it does seem that maybe it makes it less likely that Koodauw is a spy. But you should take into account the the fact Koodauw was originally going to give under surveillance to QoS until I suggested and was backed up by DP that swapping it might be a good idea (due to the fact both QoS and Wood were happy for QoS to be put under surveillance) - finding out later Wood is a spy you could suppose he preferred QoS to be put under surveillance because he was a spy. Now knowing Wood is a spy, this possibly lends additional credibility to the fact that QoS is an agent.

Purely from a chance of winning perspective it would be better for us agents if you or DP were the spy that failed mission 2 - since in both cases that would give us 3 known spies and we're trying to figure out the final one, wheres if QoS was the spy we still have two to find. Picking 5 out of 6 where 1 is a spy we have a better chance than picking 5 out of 7 where 2 are spies.

still, Koodauw did put a spy under surveillance, so it should be considered.

 

[Don't panic]

Yeah - mscriv was cleared by Wood and Twietee which made him most clear until we found out Wood was a spy so could easily have lied - and makes the establish confidence in the first round suspicious. We also know mscriv's team had at least 2 spies in it if mscriv is an agent and at least 1 if mscriv is a spy. Wood plus possibly QoS or Koodauw, depending on whether mscriv, DP or QoS failed mission 2.

DP was cleared by Koodauw - but Koodauw put together the failing mission 2 which we also know had at least 2 spies in it. Wood plus either mscriv/DP/QoS who failed it. His team was mostly forced though since he was pretty much expected to include the 2 cleared people and the other 2 who succeeded mission 1.

So really we still have the 3 options
mscriv failed mission 2. Wood/mscriv/Twietee are spies and we have 1 more to find.
DP failed mission 2. Wood/DP/Koodauw are spies and we have 1 more to find.
QoS failed mission 2. Wood/QoS are spies and we have 2 more to find.

From a winning POV it's best for us if one of the DP or mscriv options is true as it means we only have 1 more to find. If we have 2 more to find I don't think we have much chance of doing it since 'a close eye' is now useless, so we only have another establish confidence and an open up that will be helpful if we're lucky enough for them to come out.

I'm not sure what if anything we can read into Wood's choice of team since we knew he was a spy when he choose it. He picked mscriv, Twietee, DP, Koodauw, QoS which is kinda clever since its the 3 people that we already know 1 is a spy plus the people that are clearing mscriv and DP - so it could just have 1 spy QoS, or 2 (mscriv/Twietee) or (DP/Koodauw) or there is always the possibility that QoS plus Twietee or Koodauw could be spies.

The only other thing to read from is what we think of TechGod's team in mission 3. mscriv, WoodNUFC, Twietee, Sythas - Wood voted failure. IMO that's either some good spy instructions (the post from Twietee about Wood failing it?) or Wood was the only spy on the team. Either way it probably looks good for Sythas - the only thing that looks like a spy instruction from Sythas was hinting that the new spy on the team should fail it - which would be Sythas if Wood and Sythas were spies so Sythas is probably ok.

Finally, the only person I can 100% sure tell you is an agent is me so I will Nay any mission without me on it.
Unfortunately I have no absolute proof of that but I suggested Koodauw switch the under surveillance from QoS to Wood which eventually revealed a spy and I voted Nay on both failing missions.

very good analysis

... snip...
It was very interesting to see how people reacted when I said I thought the 3 of you were spies. DP hasn't responded since, QoS says one short post whereas mscriv says DP is 'single handedly trying to cast doubt on the most trusted and cleared player in the game... me... is really suspicious' and my 'willingness to do the same is also discouraging.' whereas you try to make out that I'm a spy along with Wood and QoS and possibly Moyank.

i haven't been around much today, and trying to catch up now, but since you accused mscriv and twietee it seems faiurly standard they retort back at you, no?

 

[Don't panic]

Here's what i'm thinking:

Fenris
DP
Sythas
mscriv

and the 5th being either techGod or Koodauw.

Thoughts?

you shouldn't have mscriv AND twietee, and by symmetry you shouldn't have me AND koodauw.
you should at most one of of mscriv/twietee or QoS, and even better none (although they would say the same of me).

sythas is the least suspicious right now. koodauw and Techgod seem ok, but it is hard to say. Fenris has been posting some very reasonable stuff. i have been trying to see if i could read any secret "instructions" in his posts but haven't cracked the code (yet)

 

[Don't panic]

You're really making me want to put my foot in your ass. I don't know how many times I have to say this: I picked you because, at the time, you seemed trustworthy to me. We had, essentially a mostly cleared mscriv (which has been called into question since), and there were small shards of things to suggest you could be trusted in my eyes - which now, in hindsight, are gone. But all game long you have been playing Captain Hindsight - particularly with regards to Wood.
...

. I swear on Tom Brady I'm a good guy.

bad timing?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/s...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

I'm sticking by the hypothesis that since Wood voted fail knowing it would be public that he was the only spy on that team. I could be wrong, but having played a spy in the first game I can tell you that picking up on clues from fellow spies is difficult. I though Twietee posted some pretty suspicious stuff in the second game that was stopped, guess what, he was an agent and I was clearly reading into things. Now, believing that Wood was the only spy on techgod's team means that techgod is likely an agent otherwise he would have put an unknown spy on the team to protect Wood and further our trust in him..

This makes sense if you believe that Wood was the only spy and there were no spy orders going on. Possible but not certain.

So, that means my current agent list includes myself, Sythas, Techgod, and twietee. I am the only double cleared player in the game and yes one of those clears was from a spy (WoodNUFC), but we have clearly established that he would have no reason to lie as it would only have cast suspicion on him. Sure you can postulate triple spy conspiracy theories involving Wood, Twietee, and myself, but they are not true as the preponderance of evidence simply doesn't point in that direction. Twietee has voted success on a mission where he could have easily failed it and protected WoodNUFC. Additionally, he could have lied about my status when the eavesdrop was played and many of you would have run with that theory as you were already suspecting me.

I am by far the most important person to be on a current team due to the fact that if the Open Up card comes out I can be trusted to give an honest answer for the agents.

This makes no sense - Wood being a spy makes you less trusted and also you don't have to be on the team to be the person that the person who gets the Open Up card opens up too.

There is legit suspicion on QOS and DP due to the mission 2 vote. By extension there is then suspicion on Koodauw who cleared DP. Neither Moyank or Fenris have fielded a team yet or been on a mission for us to look at their potential voting record.

So, here's how I see it based on where we are.

1. mscriv
2. Koodauw
3. Don't panic
4. Queen of Spades
5. TechGod
6. WoodNUFC
7. Sythas
8. Moyank24
9. FenrisMoonlight
10. twietee

If QOS was the spy who failed mission 2 then that means DP is cleared. That would give us the following agents, myself, Don't Panic, TechGod, Sythas, twietee, and one unknown. The likely spies would be WoodNUFC, QOS, and two of Moyank, Fenris, and Koodauw.

If DP was the spy who failed mission 2 then that means QOS is cleared and the combo of DP and Koodauw are both spies. That would give us the following agents, myself, QOS, TechGod, Sythas, twietee, and one unknown. The likely spies would be WoodNUFC, DP, Koodauw, and one from Moyank and Fenris.

Looking at these two scenarios I think the perfect team to field for this round is myself, Sythas, Techgod, Twietee, and Koodauw. If the Open Up card comes into play then we can use it on Koodauw and that will give us a final answer regarding his guilt or innocence which will in turn give us information on DP. If Koodauw turns out to be a spy and I'm correct about the other team members being agents (Sythas, TechGod, Twietee) then we still succeed the mission with 4-1 vote. This will also give us the ideal four person team to use in the final round.

I don't know of any other plan that actually gives us a reasonable way to get more information and possibly pave the way for an agent victory. This method has a chance of working whether the Open Up card comes out or not. If one or more of Sythas, TechGod, or Twietee are spies then bravo to them as they have played a great game.[/

Edit:
As I think through things the team would also work if we swap out QOS and Koodauw. With an Open Up card we could find out if she is an agent or a spy. If she is an agent then that means DP is a spy and if DP is a spy then that means Koodauw lied and therefore he is a spy. If she is a spy then we are in the same scenario with a 4-1 mission vote and a 4 person team to use in the next round.

So, the only teams I will not cast a nay vote against are:

1. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and Koodauw
2. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and QOS

Moyank, your willingness or unwillingness to seriously consider this strategy is, in my opinion, vital to any chance the agents have at winning this game.

So not fair or helpful.

mscriv - those teams are not helpful in anyway. Both those teams are very unlikely to be successful.

1. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and Koodauw

If you / Twietee are spies it fails. If Dp/Koodauw are spies with 1 of Twietee, Sythas or TechGod it fails.

2. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and QOS

If you / Twietee are spies it fails. If QoS is a spy along with 1 of Twietee, Sythas or TechGod it fails.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

you shouldn't have mscriv AND twietee, and by symmetry you shouldn't have me AND koodauw.
you should at most one of of mscriv/twietee or QoS, and even better none (although they would say the same of me).

sythas is the least suspicious right now. koodauw and Techgod seem ok, but it is hard to say. Fenris has been posting some very reasonable stuff. i have been trying to see if i could read any secret "instructions" in his posts but haven't cracked the code (yet)

That's because there's no code to crack

 

[Don't panic]

I'm sticking by the hypothesis that since Wood voted fail knowing it would be public that he was the only spy on that team. I could be wrong, but having played a spy in the first game I can tell you that picking up on clues from fellow spies is difficult. I though Twietee posted some pretty suspicious stuff in the second game that was stopped, guess what, he was an agent and I was clearly reading into things. Now, believing that Wood was the only spy on techgod's team means that techgod is likely an agent otherwise he would have put an unknown spy on the team to protect Wood and further our trust in him.

this was my first assumption too, but it could also be a strategic move, assuming some sort of communications went through.

So, that means my current agent list includes myself, Sythas, Techgod, and twietee. I am the only double cleared player in the game and yes one of those clears was from a spy (WoodNUFC), but we have clearly established that he would have no reason to lie as it would only have cast suspicion on him. Sure you can postulate triple spy conspiracy theories involving Wood, Twietee, and myself, but they are not true as the preponderance of evidence simply doesn't point in that direction. Twietee has voted success on a mission where he could have easily failed it and protected WoodNUFC. Additionally, he could have lied about my status when the eavesdrop was played and many of you would have run with that theory as you were already suspecting me.

I am by far the most important person to be on a current team due to the fact that if the Open Up card comes out I can be trusted to give an honest answer for the agents.

There is legit suspicion on QOS and DP due to the mission 2 vote. By extension there is then suspicion on Koodauw who cleared DP. Neither Moyank or Fenris have fielded a team yet or been on a mission for us to look at their potential voting record.

ehrm, no.
what we have clearly established is that the 'double clearing' counts as nothing anymore, and thus you are 'simply cleared', just like i am. and that if you are a spy, wood would have had some very evident reasons to lie.
as a consequence, you are as trustworthy as most, and less than others, and the 'legit suspicion' om QoS and me is extended equally to you.
it's kind of weird because you and twietee are projecting quite opposite vibes right now, but if he is good so must you

If QOS was the spy who failed mission 2 then that means DP is cleared. That would give us the following agents, myself, Don't Panic, TechGod, Sythas, twietee, and one unknown. The likely spies would be WoodNUFC, QOS, and two of Moyank, Fenris, and Koodauw.

If DP was the spy who failed mission 2 then that means QOS is cleared and the combo of DP and Koodauw are both spies. That would give us the following agents, myself, QOS, TechGod, Sythas, twietee, and one unknown. The likely spies would be WoodNUFC, DP, Koodauw, and one from Moyank and Fenris.

Looking at these two scenarios I think the perfect team to field for this round is myself, Sythas, Techgod, Twietee, and Koodauw. If the Open Up card comes into play then we can use it on Koodauw and that will give us a final answer regarding his guilt or innocence which will in turn give us information on DP. If Koodauw turns out to be a spy and I'm correct about the other team members being agents (Sythas, TechGod, Twietee) then we still succeed the mission with 4-1 vote. This will also give us the ideal four person team to use in the final round.

I don't know of any other plan that actually gives us a reasonable way to get more information and possibly pave the way for an agent victory. This method has a chance of working whether the Open Up card comes out or not. If one or more of Sythas, TechGod, or Twietee are spies then bravo to them as they have played a great game.

Edit:
As I think through things the team would also work if we swap out QOS and Koodauw. With an Open Up card we could find out if she is an agent or a spy. If she is an agent then that means DP is a spy and if DP is a spy then that means Koodauw lied and therefore he is a spy. If she is a spy then we are in the same scenario with a 4-1 mission vote and a 4 person team to use in the next round.

So, the only teams I will not cast a nay vote against are:

1. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and Koodauw
2. myself, Twietee, Sythas, TechGod, and QOS

the exact same scenarios would work replacing me and koodauw for you and twietee:
1. myself, Koodauw, Sythas, TechGod, and Twietee
2. myself, Koodauw, Sythas, TechGod, and QOS
since there is a significant possibility that both of you are spies.

The team you propose, with the card distribution you propose gives an immediate victory to the spies.
If moyank does propos such a team, i am certainly going to Nay it

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

I actually agree with you about the pairing of DP/Koodauw (the luck of the eavesdrop), which is why I was leaning more towards you being the spy vote.

That said, I definitely have reservations about Twietee, and more and more with mscriv. That may be because I feel like he's forcing "his" team on me a little too hard. This is an important round (spies need 2 votes) so I want to make sure I get it right. We also have a no-confidence, so that helps if we put the team through and we get crappy cards that don't help.

I went out with the accusation of mscriv/Twietee to see how they would react. I currently think DP/Koodauw being spies is the least likely. mscriv/Twietee or QoS both more likely. There is something to be said for including the 2 you think most likely to be good on the team since it means if we get the Open Up we can hopefully clear one of them (or we may find a spy). You also need to put someone on the team your confident enough to Establish Confidence too in case that comes up.

I think part of the reason I'm leaning towards mscriv/Twietee being the spies currently is because it does give us most chance of success. If its Wood/QoS that are the spies I'm finding it hard to see any hints to figure out who the other two spies are. As it is if you assume mscriv/twietee/Wood are spies or even DP/Koodauw/Wood then I currently can't see the 4th spy amongst the remaining 7.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

A little summary of what we actually know about everyone. i.e. not much.

mscriv
Led mission 1 team that succeeded but had at least 1 spy (if mscriv is a spy), 2 spies if mscriv isn't a spy. Gave Establish Confidence to a spy WoodNUFC, Eavesdropped by Twietee who claims mscriv is an agent. 1 of 3 people who could have failed mission 2. Voted success mission 3
Team Choice: Koodauw, WoodNUFC, Queen of Spades

Koodauw
Led mission 2 team that failed and had at least 2 spies (WoodNUFC plus 1 of mscriv, DP, QoS) eavesdropped DP - claims DP is an agent. Voted success mission 1.
Team choice: WoodNUFC, Queen of Spades, Don't panic, mscriv

Don't panic
Led mission 3 team that was no confidenced due to Twietee's eavesdropping of mscriv. Eavesdropped by Koodauw who claims DP is an agent. 1 of 3 people who could have failed mission 2.
Team choice: QoS, Moyank24, FenrisMoonlight, Twietee

Queen of Spades
Led mission 3 team that was voted down. 1 of 3 people who could have failed mission 2. Voted success mission 1
Team choice: mscriv, WoodNUFC, FenrisMoonlight, Twietee

TechGod
Led mission 3 team that failed. WoodNUFC openly failed the team. Wood only spy or clever manipulation?
Team choice: mscriv, WoodNUFC, Twietee, Sythas

WoodNUFC
Led mission 4 team voted down. Known to be spy due to failing mission 3. Established Confidence from mscriv - claims mscriv is an agent.
Team choice: mscriv, Twietee, DP, Koodauw, QoS

Sythas
Led mission 4 team voted down. Voted success mission 3
Team choice: mscriv, Twietee, FenrisMoonlight, DP, TechGod

Moyank24
Never led or been on a team.

FenrisMoonlight
Never led or been on a team.

Twietee
Eavesdropped on mscriv - claims mscriv is an agent. Voted success mission 3.

 

[Moyank24]

Fenris
DP
Sythas
mscriv
TechGod

or

Fenris
QOS
Sythas
DP
TechGod

I'd like to present this tonight so we can get moving.

 

[Queen of Spades]

#2. I know I'm an Agent, and I don't trust mscriv any longer.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

Fenris
DP
Sythas
mscriv
TechGod

or

Fenris
QOS
Sythas
DP
TechGod

I'd like to present this tonight so we can get moving.

Agreed we should get moving - me being on the team is a mark in favour of either of these teams.

The only thing thing we really know for sure is that mscriv and DP can't both be spies since then with their collaborators it would make 5 spies. Not sure if that makes the mscriv + DP team a better option for mission 4 - maybe it does - it wont help us for mission 5 though.

 

[mscriv]

Wow, DP and Fenris seem to be working hard to discredit me and apparently QOS believes them. Sad, truly sad. All I can do is implore my fellow agents to see the clear logic in what I've presented.

DP and Fenris's claim that my innocence no longer stands because Wood turned out to be a spy is off base. We have to take context into consideration when looking at the evidence. Spies are trying to blend in and will make moves in order to build trust. Wood told the truth about me because it gave him instant credibility and lying about me would have been way too risky that early in the game. Additionally, if you believe that there were multiple spies on mission 1 then he surely wouldn't lie to say I was spy because that would cast further suspicion on the team I selected. At that point in the game his best play was to lay low and build trust with fellow players. He did that by voting success on the mission and telling the truth about me. It worked, we trusted him enough to put him on future missions and he was able to use that to the spies advantage. Just because someone is a spy doesn't mean that every move they make in the game is deceptive. Sometimes what they say can be trusted simply because they can't lie about everything all the time and get away with it. In order to blend it they have to play some of the game truthfully like an agent would.

Not only is this the truth, it's the most reasonable explanation. In order to place credibility in the claim that I'm a spy then you have to believe that multiple things fell perfectly in place. The chances of that are, in my opinion, ridiculous. Let's look at some of those things, me putting multiple spies on the first mission (not really a good spy strategy), getting the establish confidence card when I could give it to a fellow spy, somehow knowing that Koodauw wouldn't Eavesdrop on me when I gave him that card in mission 1 (unless you think Koodauw and I are in cahoots too), Twietee being a spy, Eavesdrop again comes out at the perfect time and is given to a fellow spy who can double clear me, etc. etc. That's really the conspiracy theory you all want to run with??? It takes more to believe that nonsense then it does to simply look at the real evidence we have.

The most telling evidence we have in this game is voting record, after that it seems to be who people select for their team when they take a turn at leading. Looking at that we know that certain people are a risk and shouldn't be put together. Using voting record primarily I've outlined a reasonable plan in post #863. DP and Fenris have both attacked the plan saying "someone could be a spy" and "you and tweetie shouldn't be on the same team". Well, the "if you're wrong about so and so" argument is quite silly at this point in the game because we are going to have to make a decision to trust someone. I'd rather trust folks with at least some kind of evidence and a plan rather than taking a chance on an unknown player or risking putting two likely spies on a team and hoping for the combination of Open Up and then No Confidence. You all do realize that if Fenris is a spy he's not going to No Confidence a spy winning team. Thus, counting on that is an extremely risky move. As for not putting tweetie and I together, his voting record lends credibility to the fact that he is likely an agent. The fact that he told the truth about me is another factor to consider. And, finally, the fact that in order for him to be a spy then he and Wood had to perfectly execute the mission 3 public vote fail. I think that's unlikely. If I'm wrong then tweetie and Wood deserve all the credit they can get for a game well played.

I'll be transparent with you guys. I'm really frustrated at this point and here's why. I know one of QOS or DP are a spy. That being said, I fully expect one of them to be doing everything in their power to discredit me, take us on a goose chase, sabotage, etc. However, it seems at this point that both have taken the position that I can't be trusted. It's so discouraging that one of my fellow agents, a person that I'm trying desperately to prove is innocent, is working against me.

 

[Moyank24]

OK, here we go:

Fenris
QOS
Sythas
DP
TechGod

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

Wow, DP and Fenris seem to be working hard to discredit me and apparently QOS believes them. Sad, truly sad. All I can do is implore my fellow agents to see the clear logic in what I've presented.

DP and Fenris's claim that my innocence no longer stands because Wood turned out to be a spy is off base. We have to take context into consideration when looking at the evidence. Spies are trying to blend in and will make moves in order to build trust. Wood told the truth about me because it gave him instant credibility and lying about me would have been way too risky that early in the game. Additionally, if you believe that there were multiple spies on mission 1 then he surely wouldn't lie to say I was spy because that would cast further suspicion on the team I selected. At that point in the game his best play was to lay low and build trust with fellow players. He did that by voting success on the mission and telling the truth about me. It worked, we trusted him enough to put him on future missions and he was able to use that to the spies advantage. Just because someone is a spy doesn't mean that every move they make in the game is deceptive. Sometimes what they say can be trusted simply because they can't lie about everything all the time and get away with it. In order to blend it they have to play some of the game truthfully like an agent would.

Wood would have said you were an agent what ever you were so his claim of you being an agent really doesn't hold now we know he's a spy. We have to disregard it. Furthermore, giving establish confidence to a fellow spy is exactly what you would expect a spy team leader to do so. Anything else and he reveals himself as a spy which he's hardly likely to do mission 1. So the giving of Establish Confidence to Wood no longer clears you and in fact makes you looks suspicious - I'm sure you can see that.

Against that we have Twietee's separate eavesdrop of you where he also claimed you were an agent, but like everyone of us Twietee has a 40% chance of being a spy. So that's not conclusive either - together with Wood's clear it did seem conclusive you were an agent but just the one and its no better than Koodauw's clearing of DP.

Not only is this the truth, it's the most reasonable explanation. In order to place credibility in the claim that I'm a spy then you have to believe that multiple things fell perfectly in place. The chances of that are, in my opinion, ridiculous. Let's look at some of those things, me putting multiple spies on the first mission (not really a good spy strategy), getting the establish confidence card when I could give it to a fellow spy, somehow knowing that Koodauw wouldn't Eavesdrop on me when I gave him that card in mission 1 (unless you think Koodauw and I are in cahoots too), Twietee being a spy, Eavesdrop again comes out at the perfect time and is given to a fellow spy who can double clear me, etc. etc. That's really the conspiracy theory you all want to run with??? It takes more to believe that nonsense then it does to simply look at the real evidence we have.

Assuming you were a spy then its probable you only put 1 spy on mission 1 (WoodNUFC) and QoS and Koodauw are agents. There only has to be more than 1 spy on mission 1 if you are an agent. An agent picking 1 or more spies as part of the team randomly is highly probably (there is only a 12% chance of an agent picking an all agent team mission 1) - an agent picking 2 or more spies randomly and then giving the 1 card that could out him to a spy on the team is less than a 1/3 chance. I agree that giving eavesdrop to Koodauw was maybe slightly dangerous but Wood had already suggested the double clearing of you via eavesdrop and establish confidence that was then put down by almost everyone else so it was very likely Koodauw wouldn't use it that way. Also people like to find out about DP early on so giving it to either Koodauw or QoS it was likely to be used on DP.

Combined with the fact that when you gave out the cards, you also gave instructions as to what to do with them

Mission 1 - Card Distribution

Okay, here we go...

Eavesdrop to Koodauw so he can verify the role of Don't Panic.
Establish Confidence to WoodNUFC so he can verify my role. (I'm an agent by the way)
No Confidence to QOS

and its very likely that Koodauw wouldn't stray from the consensus and use it differently. You bringing it up does make me wonder about TechGod - if he was the 4th spy with you/Twietee and Wood it would explain why you didn't simply give it to QoS.

The most telling evidence we have in this game is voting record, after that it seems to be who people select for their team when they take a turn at leading. Looking at that we know that certain people are a risk and shouldn't be put together. Using voting record primarily I've outlined a reasonable plan in post #863. DP and Fenris have both attacked the plan saying "someone could be a spy" and "you and tweetie shouldn't be on the same team". Well, the "if you're wrong about so and so" argument is quite silly at this point in the game because we are going to have to make a decision to trust someone. I'd rather trust folks with at least some kind of evidence and a plan rather than taking a chance on an unknown player or risking putting two likely spies on a team and hoping for the combination of Open Up and then No Confidence. You all do realize that if Fenris is a spy he's not going to No Confidence a spy winning team. Thus, counting on that is an extremely risky move. As for not putting tweetie and I together, his voting record lends credibility to the fact that he is likely an agent. The fact that he told the truth about me is another factor to consider. And, finally, the fact that in order for him to be a spy then he and Wood had to perfectly execute the mission 3 public vote fail. I think that's unlikely. If I'm wrong then tweetie and Wood deserve all the credit they can get for a game well played.

It's possible that Twietee and Wood are spies and your not - we've already linked a post that could be a very clear instruction from Twietee to Wood to fail mission 3. I don't think you commented on that though. Also why does it make sense for a spy like Wood to gather trust by claiming your an agent and voting success but It's also strange that you take Twietee's clearing of you and his voting record as evidence of being an agent after saying about Wood that's how you'd expect a spy to behave to gather trust. If your not a spy, then its possible those 2 are manipulating us (and Wood openly failing has had the desired effect of us mistrusting you) and it means that QoS or DP/Koodauw are spies. I'm considering that but that if that's the case your reasonable plan in post #863 is still a bust as they put Twietee and Koodauw or Twietee and QoS together.

I'll be transparent with you guys. I'm really frustrated at this point and here's why. I know one of QOS or DP are a spy. That being said, I fully expect one of them to be doing everything in their power to discredit me, take us on a goose chase, sabotage, etc. However, it seems at this point that both have taken the position that I can't be trusted. It's so discouraging that one of my fellow agents, a person that I'm trying desperately to prove is innocent, is working against me.

 

[Queen of Spades]

Wow, DP and Fenris seem to be working hard to discredit me and apparently QOS believes them.

What? I came back around to the idea that perhaps me and DP are both Agents myself. Read my post. I spent quite a bit of time going back through this thread and reading it. You're making it seem like DP and Fenris told me what to think and I just went along. If I'm wrong, so be it, but the conclusions are my own. Give me some credit.

I'll be transparent with you guys. I'm really frustrated at this point and here's why. I know one of QOS or DP are a spy. That being said, I fully expect one of them to be doing everything in their power to discredit me, take us on a goose chase, sabotage, etc. However, it seems at this point that both have taken the position that I can't be trusted. It's so discouraging that one of my fellow agents, a person that I'm trying desperately to prove is innocent, is working against me.

You're not cleared in my eyes. That's the issue at hand. One person who cleared you turned out to be a spy, and the other is not cleared himself. So we're back at square one with you - which in my mind, merited further investigation. And in light of my own personal reflection on the interactions post-Wood, I think you are more suspicious than previously thought. If you're frustrated, believe me, I understand. You're hardly alone in that feeling. You also can't be that surprised, in light of recent events, to have the heat turned back on you.

YAY on that team. I know I'm an Agent, so I'd prefer this team over the other one.

 

[twietee]

NAY

I'll repeat my questions: I attack mscriv, my fellow spy, the minute he gives Establ. Conf. to woodNUFC, my other fellow spy, for doing so? Right off the bat?

Guys, if this was a WW game, ok - PMs and so but if you think that's a likely scenario..I'm honestly at a loss. But ok, let's assume I want to go nuts on two of my buddies to build up some confidence: The second I'm with Wood on a team I'm screaming throught the thread that he should vote fail. Right. Because that would have made so much sense too.

*shakes head and stares into the coffee*

 

[Queen of Spades]

This game is worse than WW for non-participation. Really frustrating.

 

[twietee]

I see you go back from 'too trusting' to 'YAY' on a Moyank team (that even includes DP!), QoS?

***

This is madness.

@mscriv , if DP and QoS are spies that would mean Koodauw and woodNUFC are the other two. Hard to believe with how Moyank and Fenris are straight out campaigning right now. I do fear that there is No Confidence here anymore, and I really doubt that we can Take Responsibility for that.

 

[Queen of Spades]

I see you go back from 'too trusting' to 'YAY' on a Moyank team (that even includes DP!), QoS?

***

This is madness.

@mscriv , if DP and QoS are spies that would mean Koodauw and woodNUFC are the other two. Hard to believe with how Moyank and Fenris are straight out campaigning right now. I do fear that there is No Confidence here anymore, and I really doubt that we can Take Responsibility for that.

A Moyank team that includes me. And if you're going to continue to harp on the fact that I try not to trust her blindly - please remember where I said at least four times all things being equal. I don't just automatically distrust her every round, every time, ignoring evidence and reason.

I thought you were inclined to believe Sythas and TechGod are Agents? What team would you present? I'm honestly curious, and if this team is NAY'd it could be useful to discuss. I can't recall a single team presented that you were happy with (but that is offhand).

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

I see you go back from 'too trusting' to 'YAY' on a Moyank team (that even includes DP!), QoS?

***

This is madness.

@mscriv , if DP and QoS are spies that would mean Koodauw and woodNUFC are the other two. Hard to believe with how Moyank and Fenris are straight out campaigning right now. I do fear that there is No Confidence here anymore, and I really doubt that we can Take Responsibility for that.

Where does the idea that DP and QoS are both spies suddenly spring from. It's certainly possible but I don't think anyone has seriously considered it. Also DP and QoS have been accusing each other of being a spy most of the game so them both being spies is inconsistent with your previous post that it doesn't make sense for you and mscriv or Wood to be spies since you've been attacking them. It doesn't make any sense to me to use one argument to plead your innocence and the opposite argument to make out other people are guilty.

Also what's all that No Confidence and Take Responsibility stuff about ?!

 

[Moyank24]

Where does the idea that DP and QoS are both spies suddenly spring from. It's certainly possible but I don't think anyone has seriously considered it. Also DP and QoS have been accusing each other of being a spy most of the game so them both being spies is inconsistent with your previous post that it doesn't make sense for you and mscriv or Wood to be spies since you've been attacking them. It doesn't make any sense to me to use one argument to plead your innocence and the opposite argument to make out other people are guilty.

Also what's all that No Confidence and Take Responsibility stuff about ?!

Does mscriv have a take responsibility? It seems like he's telling him to take the No confidence.

I also have Take Responsibility.

@ravenvii would you mind listing out what players are holding plot cards?

We don't want to be overtaken, here. Oy.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

This game is worse than WW for non-participation. Really frustrating.

I agree - one change I'd really like to see to this game is that all the Yay/Nay votes get PMd to the GG and then revealed all at once. It would be a lot more consistent with the RL game where those votes are public but simultaneous. It would mean everyone would have to vote on each team as they'd been no known majority lock and would therefore make the team votes more useful to consider how people voted on each team. As it is people can hide or vote opposite since they know the trend of the vote.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

Does mscriv have a take responsibility? It seems like he's telling him to take the No confidence.

I also have Take Responsibility.

@ravenvii would you mind listing out what players are holding plot cards?

We don't want to be overtaken, here. Oy.

mscriv: strong leader
DP: strong leader
moyank: Take responsibility (there is only one in the pack according to OP)
Me: No confidence

Edit: My guess would be he's asking mscriv to strong leader the next mission and to Nay the current one.