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[A] The Agency - GAME OVER -- SPIES WIN
- Thread starter ravenvii
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I liked mscriv's team initially (until he distributed plots). I liked TechGod's team to some extent (as I said: would have presented the same with Moyank instead of Sythas), with the side-note about wood. And I liked Sythas team, but didn't want to yay it immediatel since that was my mistake in mission three and then wasn't on when you guys shot it down.
mscriv will definitely nay this mission. Hindsight and all that..
you never thought about DP and QoS being a team?? That's been possible the whole time...and no sudden development. What would you expect them to do in case they were spies - shake hands and accuse mscriv? That wouldn't make any sense, especially since one of those that cleared mscriv was a spy himself. I don't see how that discredits my defense one bit? EDIT: to clarify: that wasn't a sound strategy back then. Now is a different story. But as I also said, I doubt it myself since that would mean Moyank and you are agents and I have a really hard time to believe that.
If you focus that much on mscriv/twietee/woods, Fenris, you might as well out yourself as a spy and bank on the lurking agents to miss that note.
And I was merely saying that with how Mo and Fenris playing heavily into the hands of the spies right now, it seems that the agents hold neither No Conf. and Take Resp. in their hands..
Does mscriv have a take responsibility? It seems like he's telling him to take the No confidence.
I also have Take Responsibility.
@ravenvii would you mind listing out what players are holding plot cards?
We don't want to be overtaken, here. Oy.
The amount of speculation regarding "secret messages" being sent is quite maddening. I don't know whether to call it paranoia or over analysis, but either way it's wrong. I'm not in cahoots with twietee and thus he has no reason to be giving me "spy instructions"
As you should already know, my vote for the team is NAY. I said I would vote down any team that didn't coincide with my previously posted plan and I'm sticking to that. Sorry agents, I've done my best, but I think we're gonna lose this one.
I thought about DP and QoS both being spies - it requires mscriv to have put 3 spies on mission 1 as it means Koodauw, DP, Wood And QoS are all spies. The chances of an agent picking 3 of the 4 spies for the first mission are surprisingly low (< 5%) so I discounted it and I didn't think anyone else had taken it seriously so I was surprised when you suggested it again. It also means there were 3 spies on mission 2 (DP, Wood and QoS). Do you really think Koodauw choose to put all 3 of his spy team mates on the same mission and they managed to only 1 of them vote fail?
I'm not a spy - as I've said before I've no definite proof but I'm the only person who voted Nay on every spy mission and I'm the one who suggested Koodauw switch the under surveillance to Wood which has revealed a spy. I've asked several times to explain why I'd do those things if I was a spy but no one has answered - probably because there isn't a good reason.
Also note:
DP and mscriv being spies together is impossible (since it means Koodauw, Twietee, Wood, DP and mscriv) are all spies.
DP and QoS being spies together is very unlikely as just discussed (<5% chance mscriv as an agent) would pick all 3 spies for the first mission. etc.
mscriv and QoS being spies together is also unlikely. It means Twietee, Wood, mscriv and QoS) are the 4 spies. So mscriv choose to put 2 spies on the first mission and both voted success. Then 3 of them were put on the second mission and only 1 voted fail with no obvious team orders - Wood would probably hide since under surveillance but the other 2 managed to somehow decide which should fail the mission.
For those reasons I think its most likely there is only 1 spy out of mscriv, DP and QoS.
DP and mscriv being spies together is impossible (since it means Koodauw, Twietee, Wood, DP and mscriv) are all spies.
DP and QoS being spies together is very unlikely as just discussed (<5% chance mscriv as an agent) would pick all 3 spies for the first mission. etc.
mscriv and QoS being spies together is also unlikely. It means Twietee, Wood, mscriv and QoS) are the 4 spies. So mscriv choose to put 2 spies on the first mission and both voted success. Then 3 of them were put on the second mission and only 1 voted fail with no obvious team orders - Wood would probably hide since under surveillance but the other 2 managed to somehow decide which should fail the mission.
For those reasons I think its most likely there is only 1 spy out of mscriv, DP and QoS.
I'm going to Yay this team. I'm on it and an an agent but also if I'm wrong about mscriv only 1 out of DP and QoS can be a spy and we may be able to find out one of them and I can no confidence it if we do.
This is a legitimate point. Although it could be argued that it was an advanced spy strategy that helped Wood infiltrate us due to a false sense of security. As far as the Nay votes go, those don't really tell us much.
For the sake of the agents Fenris, I really hope you are on our side. I think we just might need the No Confidence.
Err, where did I say that this combo is a likely one? It's even less likely than twietee/mscriv/wood. But it's not impossible either. Would I go along with that strategy? Hell, no. And to your following post: of course it's impossible for DP and mscriv being spies: that's what makes it a fairly bit suspicious to go with a mscriv/twietee/wood combo. If anything it should lead you to a twietee/Koodauw/DP/wood combo, no?
You nay'ing teams doesn't mean a lot in my opinion.
If you think DP/QoS both being spies is unlikely why was it suddenly offered as an option?!
I'm on the agents side. Yeah - I'm hoping we get through this mission - hopefully with some additional information so we can win mission 5 - but its doubtful.
If it is Wood/QoS - its going to require a lot of luck to find the other 2 spies which is why I'm hoping its DP/Koodauw/Wood or you/Twietee/Wood.
Again: it's not "suddenly" an option. It was an option all the time. You admitted it yourself once you said that you calculated the odds about it and dismissed it because it's unlikely - that you did all by yourself since Ican't remember you putting it out here back then.
I was merely answering to mscriv's 'ranr' (
) that one of DP and QoS should be an agent yet both gang up on him. Not his words literally but something along this line. The fact that you almost keep trolling me because of that just so my posts appear defensive is telling.Also there would be a lot of luck and coincidence and weird gameplay involved to consider mscri/twietee(wood a viable option since, as you said yourself DP and mscriv both being spies is impossible. So you just go with the more convenient theory since it would out more spies, although that theory is much less credible than QoS being a spy, or DP.
You being so sharp about your nays but are ok with one spy being on this team during the crucial mission as long as you are on it is odd as well. Not sure if it was you that shot down mscriv's idea during sythas term to include both of QoS and DP - don't have any time now but will try to search for that later.
DP being a spy would out the same number of spies as mscriv - in both cases its 3, so I'm not picking mscriv over DP because of that. Its only the QoS option that is only 2. As I've said before I consider mscriv giving establish confidence to another spy very possible - its how I'd have played it if I'd been given establish confidence first mission when I was a spy listing the first team. Knowing Wood is a spy makes that more likely - the clear from you makes it less likely but your eavesdrop on mscriv isn't any more reliable to us than Koodauw's eavesdrop on DP - both could be true or either one of them could be a lie. At this point unfortunately we can't tell. Both require the same amount of luck on the part of the spies.Again: it's not "suddenly" an option. It was an option all the time. You admitted it yourself once you said that you calculated the odds about it and dismissed it because it's unlikely - that you did all by yourself since Ican't remember you putting it out here back then.
I was merely answering to mscriv's 'ranr' (
Also there would be a lot of luck and coincidence and weird gameplay involved to consider mscri/twietee(wood a viable option since, as you said yourself DP and mscriv both being spies is impossible. So you just go with the more convenient theory since it would out more spies, although that theory is much less credible than QoS being a spy, or DP.
You being so sharp about your nays but are ok with one spy being on this team during the crucial mission as long as you are on it is odd as well. Not sure if it was you that shot down mscriv's idea during sythas term to include both of QoS and DP - don't have any time now but will try to search for that later.
I'm not sure what you mean about shooting down Sythas's team to include both of QoS and DP. Sythas stared out suggesting
and ended up with that same team. I don't remember Sythas's suggesting a team with both DP and QoS on it at anytime.
Yeah its always been an option, but I was surprised it still seemed to be being seriously considered. I remember discounting it once I realized it meant that an agent would have had to blindly pick 3 spies for the first mission - don't think I ever posted that though.
Once and for all: where do you get the notion from that I seriously considered it!?! In the very post I brought that up again today I was dismissing it one sentence later because of it meaning you and mo are both agents: something I don't believe in. You calcualted the odds: same result: possible but highly unlikely. No need to go on this topic for about six to seven posts.
I was talkin about mscriv's idea during Sytha's term:
With that being said my thought is to put together a team of myself, Twietee, Sythas, DP and QOS.
Yep, let that sink in.
...
to what you replied:
I wasn't sure if you straight out said no to a team with at least one proven spy (my and mscriv's perspectiv). You didn't but:
You seem pretty confident about Moyank. Since you say that (I agree here) there is likely only one spy among DP, QoS and mscriv wouldn't it make much more sense to inlcude all three of them plus you plus whoever you deem trustworthy enough (say: Sythas for example)? Now it's more like: I'm on it so let's roll. Which appears as quite a change of your most cautious school of thought.
This post where you suddenly say if DP and QoS are spies. No one else has recently mentioned the possibility of them both being spies. mscriv has said he knows one of them is. I didn't understand why you were suddenly saying if they both were when other people had been saying one or the other.
I see your point but that team was 1 person different from Wood's team - so if Wood had suggested a team with 2 spies - which we don't know then unless Koodauw was one of the spies it still had 2 spies on it. It didn't make sense to switch out Koodauw and not do the same with you. Switch you for me as well and I would probably have gone with it.
I do agree that mscriv/DP/QoS does make a lot of sense as a core for mission 4 - we're pretty sure that gives us 1 and only 1 spy between them. The question is then who to add to that. Koodauw/Twietee we have to exclude since if mscriv or DP are guilty thats an instant loss but 1 of them is likely an agent (unless the spies are QoS/Koodauw/Twietee/Wood), so that leaves us trying to pick 2 agents out of 4 where probably 1, maybe 2 are spies.
The problem is we simply don't have enough to go on to rule out anyone other than Wood or pick someone who is definitely an agent.
I know two things for sure.
1) I'm an agent.
2) DP and mscriv can't both be spies.
The 3 scenarios we have:
IF mscriv failed mission 2 then spies are mscriv/Wood/Twietee plus 1 of Koodauw,QoS,Moyank,Sythas,TechGod, Fenris. DP is an agent.
IF DP failed mission 2 then spies are DP/Koodauw/Wood plus 1 of Twietee, QoS, Moyank, Sythas, TechGod, Fenris. mscriv is an agent.
If QoS failed mission 2 then spies are QoS/Wood spies plus 2 out of everyone else. DP unlikely to be a spy in this case since it would mean an agent picked 3 of the 4 spies mission 1 (<5% chance). Koodauw also unlikely a spy in this case for the same reason.
Pick which one you believe. There's not a lot in it. Have to hope we get a useful card and I can no confidence the mission if needed.
Fenris, why is that so important to you that we waste our time with this DP/QoS topic?
Here, mscriv wrote post #889 (at the end of what I called his 'rant')
So I was responding to that frustartation four posts later in #893
No idea why you make such a fuss about that other than wasting my time and adding more confusion to this more than convoluted thread. I wasn't correcting him, I wasn't pointing out something nobody ever thought or mentioned before I was just reacting to his frustration that both seemingly "work" against him.
And I never said this is a likely scenario, I have no clue where you get that from! But it is possible; that much we both agree on right, So it wasn't an utterly stupid thing to say either. And now let's please move on to some more important things in life.
Here, mscriv wrote post #889 (at the end of what I called his 'rant')
So I was responding to that frustartation four posts later in #893
No idea why you make such a fuss about that other than wasting my time and adding more confusion to this more than convoluted thread.
I wasn't correcting him, I wasn't pointing out something nobody ever thought or mentioned before I was just reacting to his frustration that both seemingly "work" against him.And I never said this is a likely scenario, I have no clue where you get that from! But it is possible; that much we both agree on right, So it wasn't an utterly stupid thing to say either. And now let's please move on to some more important things in life.
addendum:
3) At least one of QoS / DP / mscriv is a spy.
Can you please point out why you yay a a team with QoS on board given your three scenarios? Wouldn't it be more plausible to have one with DP and mscriv on it since they definitely can't be both spies?
scratch my last comment, I did not remembered fenris having the no confidence. We will need to see the next cards results before any move, my bad.
It's interesting that when I first brought up the idea of putting both QOS and DP on mission 4 that folks thought that was too risky. DP and Fenris specifically posted about that. Yet, now Fenris is in favor. DP has yet to vote or give his opinion. QOS was the only one who posted that it might work and she has voted in favor of the team.
Did I mention that WoodNUFC may have succeeded on multiple accounts?
- fail mission (check)
- make twietee look ugly (check)
- make Sythas look cool (check)
Did I mention that WoodNUFC may have succeeded on multiple accounts?
- fail mission (check)
- make twietee look ugly (check)
- make Sythas look cool (check)
Really ?!? I look cool!
No we thought it was too risky putting you, DP and QoS on the same team along with Twietee - if your going to put the 3 of DP/QoS/mscriv on a team (which could make sense) you can't include Twietee in it as it could be an instant fail (nor can you include Koodauw)