[A] The Agency - GAME OVER -- SPIES WIN

[twietee]

As I just said the problem is if you take mscriv/DP/QoS as core and the team leader is an agent if QoS is the spy then he's picking 2 people out of 3 where 2 of them are likely spies - unless you or Koodauw is a spy that is telling the truth about mscriv/DP.

None of the possibilities seem likely to give us a good outcome unless someone correctly guesses which of the 3 possibilities is true or we can get more information somehow.

No, I say DP and mscriv should be on the mission - QoS shouldn't. You said it yourself somewhere: it's impossible that both of mscriv and DP could be spies. It's possible that both of them are agents, though. It's actually one of the three facts that are 100% clear this game, 2.) that at least one of DP and QoS (and mscriv) is a spy and 3.) that Wood is a spy.

And btw. DP, I'm literally going to lynch you digitally if you're a MIA spy here! Shame on you!

raven: I feel for you! 4s here as well and I just don't bother with MR anymore when on the road.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

No, I say DP and mscriv should be on the mission - QoS shouldn't. You said it yourself somewhere: it's impossible that both of mscriv and DP could be spies. It's possible that both of them are agents, though. It's actually one of the three facts that are 100% clear this game, 2.) that at least one of DP and QoS (and mscriv) is a spy and 3.) that Wood is a spy.

And btw. DP, I'm literally going to lynch you digitally if you're a MIA spy here! Shame on you!

raven: I feel for you! 4s here as well and I just don't bother with MR anymore when on the road.

ok - so which other 3 would you add with that - knowing that if your wrong and DP or mscriv is a spy one more loses us the game.

 

[twietee]

ok - so which other 3 would you add with that - knowing that if your wrong and DP or mscriv is a spy one more loses us the game.

well, mscriv is an agent so we'd be safe on that side. I guess TechGod, Sythas and you/mo. I personally would go with Koodauw instead of you/mo since I do think they (DP and Koodauw) are likely agents and an open up could work wonders. That said: I'm fairly sceptic if this team would succeed mission 5 - but as it stands right now it'd be already a damn hard achievement for us to even reach that point.

I'm not that confident in Sythas who posted quite some stuff I think quite odd - the "moyank take the lead" comment lately is just one in a row which could be read a really different way.

 

[Queen of Spades]

QoS either put a team with just 1 spy Wood on it so the spies would either miss a mission or Wood would have to out himself. @twietee do you think that Is that likely?
Or there is another spy in there and they choose to out Wood and keep the other spy hidden. That other spy would have to be Twietee and/or mscriv. You will of course say it has to be me.

No! This just doesn't wash. If you'll remember, my initial team did not include Wood at all! I will admit, it wasn't necessarily intentional. But if I were a spy thinking to include him as a "cleared" spy, that wouldn't have happened. It was and is a classic fumbling by an Agent with little to no trustworthy information.

In strict order of probability I'd put it as
QoS most likely
mscriv
DP very unlikely.

Ugggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh. I'm so over arguing this stuff in circles. I literally cannot wait for the end of the game so my Agent status can be confirmed and I can gloat like a motherf---er. And take a break from playing these frustrating games chock full of people that don't chime in and help.

That said, I agree with this list with the caveat that I'M AN AGENT. So who's next on the list if that's the case?

 

[twietee]

That said, I agree with this list with the caveat that I'M AN AGENT. So who's next on the list if that's the case?

Why did you yay a mission then with DP being on it? Do you think DP's less likely a spy than mscriv?!

 

[mscriv]

I don't understand why mission 1 is such a challenge for you Fenris? We have to take both the votes and the leaders choices on mission 1 with a "grain of salt". You talk numbers like they matter, "the chances of mscriv picking X spies and then giving plots to so and so... blah, blah, blah". Being an agent team leader on mission 1 is extremely difficult. You literally have nothing to go on and whomever you select for the team you also have to give the plots, 1 to each. All analysis of mission 1 is after the fact. If I randomly selected two spies then guess what, two spies got plot cards too. There is no way of knowing the breakdown so even looking at the player order is only somewhat helpful when you are trying to make decisions.

You all made such a big deal about establishing a chain and so I put out the cards in a way where that was possible. As I've already posted, I thought it was a waste to do so and so I did vocally advocate the use of Eavesdrop on DP, but if I was a spy I would never have risked that. Think about it, if I'm a spy and I give the Establish Confidence to my fellow spy Wood so he can lie to cover me, then why in the world would I risk giving Eavesdrop to Koodauw who could use it on me. That would mean that with one move, on mission 1, the agents could bust two spies. Being a spy is all about blending in and making your move at the right moment, not risking everything as early as possible. You have repeatedly said, "if I was a spy that's what I would do...." Don't take things out of context. Of course, any spy team leader would Establish Confidence to a fellow spy. That truth doesn't lend credibility to your argument because that's not all of the information. What would a spy do with both the Eavesdrop and Establish Confidence and the player selection I had. Let's do an apples to apples comparison that acknowledges all of the factors. If you take all of it into consideration then me being a spy would mean I risked it all by making a bonehead move on mission 1. Is that really plausible to you?

What I think is odd is that you are clinging to one piece of evidence to support your claim of agent status, the fact that you suggested putting Wood Under Surveillance. That's all you've got and you expect it to be enough for us. I've clearly demonstrate how "far out there" your conspiracy theories are regarding my guilt and I've got way more evidence to back me yet you still seem to be doing everything you can to discredit and cast doubt in my direction.

 

[twietee]

"Mission 1
mscriv randomly creates a team with 2 or more spies and gave establish confidence to 1 of them ~28.6% probability
He also gave eavesdrop to the other spy on the team who was then able to eavesdrop on a spy and clear him. Haven't calculated the probablity of this but it seems unlikely.

Mission 2
Koodauw chooses to create a team with 2 or more spies on it, and gives under surveillance to one of them

So far this feels unlikely - can continue analyzing it but I've not seen anything that really makes it seem any more likely."

Hmmm, why unlikely? It's not THAT crazy to assume that mscriv chooses two spies at random. Very unlucky but 4 spies - 5 agents to choose from.

 

[Queen of Spades]

Why did you yay a mission then with DP being on it? Do you think DP's less likely a spy than mscriv?!

YES! Have you missed all of my posts in the last 2 days?

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

No! This just doesn't wash. If you'll remember, my initial team did not include Wood at all! I will admit, it wasn't necessarily intentional. But if I were a spy thinking to include him as a "cleared" spy, that wouldn't have happened. It was and is a classic fumbling by an Agent with little to no trustworthy information.



Ugggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh. I'm so over arguing this stuff in circles. I literally cannot wait for the end of the game so my Agent status can be confirmed and I can gloat like a motherf---er. And take a break from playing these frustrating games chock full of people that don't chime in and help.

That said, I agree with this list with the caveat that I'M AN AGENT. So who's next on the list if that's the case?

True - it didn't contain Wood - I'd forgotten that - it was mscriv/Twiteee/TechGod/me. I don't remember why you ended up replacing TechGod with Wood though.

You missed out the part of my post where I said that your team choice counts in your favour.

 

[twietee]

YES! Have you missed all of my posts in the last 2 days?

hmmm. sorry, I guess that's why I suspect you so hard then. mscriv is an agent, what makes me so super suspicous again? Because of that one comment about wood?

If it's not you it's DP. It's not a stretch and the more he and Koodauw just disappear into the mist I grow impatient with them.

 

[twietee]

We "talked" her into Wood. He was an afterthought in her tentative list of 4-5 agents.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

"Mission 1
mscriv randomly creates a team with 2 or more spies and gave establish confidence to 1 of them ~28.6% probability
He also gave eavesdrop to the other spy on the team who was then able to eavesdrop on a spy and clear him. Haven't calculated the probablity of this but it seems unlikely.

Mission 2
Koodauw chooses to create a team with 2 or more spies on it, and gives under surveillance to one of them

So far this feels unlikely - can continue analyzing it but I've not seen anything that really makes it seem any more likely."

Hmmm, why unlikely? It's not THAT crazy to assume that mscriv chooses two spies at random. Very unlucky but 4 spies - 5 agents to choose from.

As I said its 28.6% chance of mscriv picking that first team and giving the establish confidence to a spy randomly - so that's why the first part is unlikely - its less than 1/3. You then have to assume that Koodauw chooses to create a team with 2 spies on it and then gives under surveillance to a spy. DP's team choice did seem strange for DP - I was surprised that he didn't go with the obvious QoS being the spy and include mscriv rather than including QoS on his mission. Maybe it needs more analysis

 

[mscriv]

Ugggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh. I'm so over arguing this stuff in circles. I literally cannot wait for the end of the game so my Agent status can be confirmed and I can gloat like a motherf---er. And take a break from playing these frustrating games chock full of people that don't chime in and help.

I can relate, but if we lose I won't be gloating because any vindication I feel will be eclipsed by my frustration with the gloating that I'm sure the spies will be doing.

 

[twietee]

I honestly consider to take QoS as an agent. At least she puts one hell of an effort into this game and it would 'feel' a wee bit better to lose that way than to DP and Koodauw who just chime in occasionally or disappeared completely except the odd comment every other day.

And I don't care about any gloating at all, as soon as this game is over I won't visit this painful - slow torture to the teeth kinda thread anymore anyway. No offense of course.

edit: or we just yay this and be done with it, mscriv!

 

[Queen of Spades]

True - it didn't contain Wood - I'd forgotten that - it was mscriv/Twiteee/TechGod/me. I don't remember why you ended up replacing TechGod with Wood though.

You missed out the part of my post where I said that your team choice counts in your favour.

We "talked" her into Wood. He was an afterthought in her tentative list of 4-5 agents.

Actually, in the interest of transparency and honesty, I will remind you that I admitted at the time that it was just an error in not having him on the team. Intel at the time suggested he should have been on it, I just goofed. All you guys (at the time) did was point that out, and I agreed. However, the error is probably not something I would have committed had I been a spy.

I can relate, but if we lose I won't be gloating because any vindication I feel will be eclipsed by my frustration with the gloating that I'm sure the spies will be doing.

Sure, I'll be frustrated - but I pretty much always stand up and take my share of the blame when I'm part of the losing effort. That's not going to change. You can't exactly point fingers if you're not willing to say you also could have done a better job. But it's not over yet.

I honestly consider to take QoS as an agent. At least she puts one hell of an effort into this game and it would 'feel' a wee bit better to lose that way than to DP and Koodauw who just chime in occasionally or disappeared completely except the odd comment every other day.

And I don't care about any gloating at all, as soon as this game is over I won't visit this painful - slow torture to the teeth kinda thread anymore anyway. No offense of course.

edit: or we just yay this and be done with it, mscriv!

This has annoyed me greatly in this game, but DP gets the benefit of the doubt because he usually doesn't do this. It would certainly diminish a victory, in my opinion. I am peeved either way, because non-participation typically screws the good guys way more than the bad guys.

Another reason I would love for this mission to go forward is for the cards. As we've stated a million times, we have nothing new to go on, we're just driving each other insane debating the same tidbits over and over again.

 

[twietee]

This has annoyed me greatly in this game, but DP gets the benefit of the doubt because he usually doesn't do this.

But even you consider him less suspicous than mscriv (!)

and I will repeat myself one last time now and then I give this really a badly needed rest: if neither mscriv nor me are on this mission it's game over - simple as that. You guys shouldn't have just yay'd this (in case you're agents) just because there is a brand-new bandwagon against me and mscriv in town.

edit: and that even goes for Fenris, who, in case he's a good guy, has the no conf. card still in his backpocket since he wouldn't know if Moyank, who is able to snatch it in a sec, is an agent or not.

 

[Don't panic]

@twietee I've been thinking over the 3 possibilities ever since mission 2 failed.

I've said many times I think it very likely a spy leader who got establish confidence would give it to a fellow spy. Anything else would immediately out them as a spy. We agree on that?

I always thought that more likely than the Koodauw/DP spy team theory. You clearing mscriv as well it made it unlikely althought still possible but it now required some luck for the spies with you getting eavesdrop to use on mscriv which is why I was then thinking it was the simpler explanation of QoS being a spy.

Finding out for certain Wood is a spy makes it possible that a spy gave it another spy, probability wise its slightly unlikely that an agent would have randomly created that team and given establish confidence to a spy. There is also evidence to suggest possible team orders to Wood to fail mission 3.


Ok - the 3 scenarios again.

DP/Wood/Koodauw spies
Mission 1
mscriv randomly creates a team with 2 or more spies and gave establish confidence to 1 of them ~28.6% probability
He also gave eavesdrop to the other spy on the team who was then able to eavesdrop on a spy and clear him. Haven't calculated the probablity of this but it seems unlikely.

Mission 2
Koodauw chooses to create a team with 2 or more spies on it, and gives under surveillance to one of them

So far this feels unlikely - can continue analyzing it but I've not seen anything that really makes it seem any more likely

QoS/Wood spies
Mission 1
mscriv randomly creates a team with 2 or more spies and gave establish confidence to 1 of them. ~28.6% probability

Mission 2
Kooduaw randomly gives under surveillance to 1 of the spies (50% chance)

The mission 1 team choice is slightly unlikely but everything following from it is plausible. QoS could have failed mission 2 while Wood hid. Wood could have been only spy on mission 3 so forced to vote failure. It kinda explains why QoS and Wood both didn't care which of the two of them got under surveillance - as it just helped them know who to hide.

If its true - it likely that Koodauw and DP are agents (<5% chance of an agent picking 3 spies for the first team). It doesn't prevent mscriv/Twietee also being spies though.

Mission 3.2
QoS team: mscriv, Twietee, WoodNUFC, Fenris - the only difference between this and TechGod's team which only Wood failed is that I'm switched for Sythas. I know I'm an agent so that means

QoS either put a team with just 1 spy Wood on it so the spies would either miss a mission or Wood would have to out himself. @twietee do you think that Is that likely?
Or there is another spy in there and they choose to out Wood and keep the other spy hidden. That other spy would have to be Twietee and/or mscriv. You will of course say it has to be me.

mscriv/Wood/Twietee spies
Mission 1
mscriv picks a team and puts 1 spy on it. When the establish confidence comes out he gives it to the spy to clear himself. Eavesdrop is given where it could be used to out him but Wood has already made sure that no one thinks double clearing mscriv is a good idea so its reasonably safe to do so. Giving establish confidence to a fellow spy is a sensible move and what I'd have done in mscriv's place.

Mission 2
Koodauw randomly puts 1 of the two spies under surveillance (50% chance). QoS didn't care since she was an agent. Wood didn't care since it helped him hide and mscriv vote fail without needing to resort to any additional discussion that may have been noticed.

Mission 3.1
DP gives eavesdrop to Twietee who clears mscriv - mscriv is now the only person cleared by two people. At this point this option looks very unlikely.

Mission 3.3
Wood fails the mission - mscriv is now only cleared by Twietee so the possibility is more likely again.


So to summarize a bit.

In strict order of probability I'd put it as
QoS most likely
mscriv
DP very unlikely.

DP spy scenario being very unlikely combined with the fact if mscriv is a spy DP can't be and if QoS is a spy, its unlikely that DP is makes me think we should trust DP.

QoS team choice counts in her favor as if she's a spy and mscriv/Twietee are telling the truth and are agents it would force Wood to expose himself as a spy. It's more likely if she was a spy that she included a second spy so Wood could hide until needed to vote failure at the end. In which case Twietee has to be the other spy (or she put all 3 spies on her team and mscriv/Twietee are both spies).

Still there's not much to choose between QoS and mscriv possibilities but if mscriv is a spy Twietee definitely is, if QoS is a spy its likely Twietee is. Sorry Twietee.

i am going back an forth between the two latter scenarios (obviously i am not considering the first one, although clearly everyone else should).

i have to admit i haven't read everything with the attention it deserves, in part because i really don't have the time, in part because it really looks that we are all arguing in circles.

my reasoning, -and i apologize if this is now old story and other said it already- is that if mscriv and twietee are spies, than this team cannot fail, since there can be at most one other agent. if QoS is the spy, then if another spy is in the team we lost. if QoS is a spy, there are two more spies among moyank, fenris, techgod, sythas, koodauw. it think sythas is the closest to be clean, and that leaves 2 spies among moyank, fenris, techgod, koodauw. if moyank is one of them (in the scenario where Qos is the second, with wood the third), then the last spy is one of fenris, techgood or koodauw.
so the only good option is if the last is koodauw. any other case we lose right away. if moyank is not the spy, than the team has two spies and we are in troubles.
in other words, IF QoS is a spy there is a pretty high chance we lose with this mission (although the NC card could save that, unless the spy is fenris)

if Moyank had put mscriv instead of QoS and mscriv was a spy, then only one of the other players could be a spy, (since twietee would be another spy out of the team). if QoS was the spy than the odds that two spies are in this current team would be a little bit lower.

in other words, regardless of who the spy is between mscriv and QoS, the odds would have been better with me and mscriv. this is not because i think QOS is more likely than mscriv to be a spy, but purely based on the mechanics of the two pairs.

if you want to extend this to "your" perspective (where you don't have the privilege to know i am an agent), than since my situation and mscriv are exactly parallel (no matter what mscriv keeps claiming ), than the same reasoning applies to conclude that a pairing of me and mscriv is better then mescriv and QoS.
in addition me and mscriv cannot be spies at the same time (or we would have 5 spies) which also should help some people make their decision
because of these reasons i am going to say NAY and see if Fenris can tweak the team a little

 

[Queen of Spades]

if Moyank had put mscriv instead of QoS and mscriv was a spy, then only one of the other players could be a spy, (since twietee would be another spy out of the team). if QoS was the spy than the odds that two spies are in this current team would be a little bit lower.

That would mean a loss, though, wouldn't it? mscriv being a spy + one other player = fail.

in other words, regardless of who the spy is between mscriv and QoS, the odds would have been better with me and mscriv. this is not because i think QOS is more likely than mscriv to be a spy, but purely based on the mechanics of the two pairs.

Why is that? We pretty much agree that not all 3 of us can spies, correct? So why would it be any different to choose you and mscriv vs. me and you?

We also have No Confidence, if you believe Fenris is capable of tweaking the team to be better...then his using the NC must also be a consideration.

 

[Don't panic]

ok, i have seen that the discourse has moved to extra-game/participation issues. i hadn't thought it was referred to me when mentioned earlier, but now i see it is and i don't think it is fair, honestly.
first because that i really don't think i have been an
Although i admit i haven't posted as much (or as at length) as i perhaps usually do (although i thought you'd have appreciate the break), i would still guess i have been one of the most prolific posters, and i think i contributed to the discussion. not to mention that a lot of the posts (including several of mines) have been repeating the same things over and over again. there is only so many things to say and at some point it just becomes redundant (in fact another thing to revisit for the next game is that deadline should be tighter and closer, IMO, so we don't drag thongs over forever. this should be a fast-paced game).
so sorry if i can't be here 24/7 this time around, but as you all know life gets in the way, and i do have a job and a family, and have been traveling a lot.
you all have played with me at these games for a long time now, and you all should know by now that i play with the same intensity no matter what my role or alignment is.

 

[Don't panic]

That would mean a loss, though, wouldn't it? mscriv being a spy + one other player = fail.



Why is that? We pretty much agree that not all 3 of us can spies, correct? So why would it be any different to choose you and mscriv vs. me and you?

We also have No Confidence, if you believe Fenris is capable of tweaking the team to be better...then his using the NC must also be a consideration.

yes, it would be a loss, but the chances of the spy being there would be slightly lower since one other spie (twietee in this scenario) would not be on the team

yes , not all three can be spies, but you and mscriv in principle could and you and I also in principle could, while me and mscriv is impossible. (because with wood a spy, it would make 5 if you count koodauw and twietee).
from my perspective the reasons are the ones i stated above, just that IF you were the spy, it would be very likely there is another spy in the team, and it would be an instant loss. IF the spy was mscriv, and he was in the team, the odds would be slightly better

fror the NC you are right. i think it will be of crucial importance so i really hope fenris is one of the good guys

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

I don't understand why mission 1 is such a challenge for you Fenris? We have to take both the votes and the leaders choices on mission 1 with a "grain of salt". You talk numbers like they matter, "the chances of mscriv picking X spies and then giving plots to so and so... blah, blah, blah". Being an agent team leader on mission 1 is extremely difficult. You literally have nothing to go on and whomever you select for the team you also have to give the plots, 1 to each. All analysis of mission 1 is after the fact. If I randomly selected two spies then guess what, two spies got plot cards too. There is no way of knowing the breakdown so even looking at the player order is only somewhat helpful when you are trying to make decisions.

Mission 1 is the only mission we can easily analyses the probabilities since its the only one where the leaders choice is purely random if they are an agent. The chance of you picking 2 spies or more and giving the establish confidence to one of is < 1/3 - which is a fact. It's not low enough to be very unlikely to have happened by chance but it is low enough that it is more likely that it was by design of a spy than not.

You all made such a big deal about establishing a chain and so I put out the cards in a way where that was possible. As I've already posted, I thought it was a waste to do so and so I did vocally advocate the use of Eavesdrop on DP, but if I was a spy I would never have risked that. Think about it, if I'm a spy and I give the Establish Confidence to my fellow spy Wood so he can lie to cover me, then why in the world would I risk giving Eavesdrop to Koodauw who could use it on me. That would mean that with one move, on mission 1, the agents could bust two spies. Being a spy is all about blending in and making your move at the right moment, not risking everything as early as possible. You have repeatedly said, "if I was a spy that's what I would do...." Don't take things out of context. Of course, any spy team leader would Establish Confidence to a fellow spy. That truth doesn't lend credibility to your argument because that's not all of the information. What would a spy do with both the Eavesdrop and Establish Confidence and the player selection I had. Let's do an apples to apples comparison that acknowledges all of the factors. If you take all of it into consideration then me being a spy would mean I risked it all by making a bonehead move on mission 1. Is that really plausible to you?

The chance of Koodauw going against the consensus and using the eavesdrop on you rather than DP is pretty unlikely and would have likely had people suspecting Koodauw. I agree, it would have been safer to give the eavesdrop to QoS unless of course Koodauw or TechGod is the 4th spy. However I am also taking into account that Wood who we know to be a spy suggested using them to double clear you which led to everyone else saying it was a waste of a card. Wood was the first one to talk about the cards given out and his suggestion was to double clear you. Knowing he is a spy what if anything should we make of that? Assuming Wood is trying to protect a fellow spy. who?

Eavesdrop -> Wood he can handle easily.

If mscriv is an agent then Wood is not the only spy on the team then its also not a threat to the spies if the other spy got the eavesdrop since they can use it and clear a fellow spy or a fellow agent.
Eavesdrop - > Koodauw can eavesdrop mscriv or DP but if DP is a spy Koodauw is a spy so no issues there.
QoS can eavesdrop DP or TechGod - so its possible QoS getting eavesdrop is a threat to the spies - this would imply QoS is an agent and DP is a spy.

If mscriv is a spy
Eavesdrop -> Koodauw is potentially dangerous unless Koodauw/mscriv/Twietee/Wood are all spies. but its been strongly emphasized that it should be usesd on DP.
Eavesdrop -> QoS potentially dangerous only if DP or TechGod are spies along with Wood/mscriv/Twietee - DP can't be in that situation so it makes it possible that TechGod is the 4th spy if mscriv is a spy

So the Koodauw/DP clearing isn't as unlikely as first thought. Wood could have been misdirecting to get the Eavesdrop to a fellow spy that could then clear a 3rd spy and keep it out of the hands of QoS who could have found a spy.

Arrgghh - you may have just made me reconsider the possibility of DP being a spy.

What I think is odd is that you are clinging to one piece of evidence to support your claim of agent status, the fact that you suggested putting Wood Under Surveillance. That's all you've got and you expect it to be enough for us. I've clearly demonstrate how "far out there" your conspiracy theories are regarding my guilt and I've got way more evidence to back me yet you still seem to be doing everything you can to discredit and cast doubt in my direction.

I don't expect it to be enough for anyone. I've said many times I have no proof - and that plus the fact I was the only person to Nay both failing missions is the only information you have to go on about me.

 

[Moyank24]

I'm going to chime in and echo what some are saying - you guys are just going in circles and repeating the same stuff.

The bottom line is that we aren't going to get any more info without putting a team through. Doesn't have to be this one, but that is the only way we'll get more info. At this point, you guys can continue to go around and around but you aren't saying anything new. I'm an agent and like you guys I want to get this right, but pages and pages of the same stuff is going to help get new, solid info.

It's definitely frustrating that only a few are participating, I am certainly guilty of it myself, but damn if you guys aren't making it harder to catch up! We just need to finish up voting on this and move on to the next.

Remember, we have the cushion of no-confidence if we get plots that don't help (or that reveal spies that could fail the mission). I actually trust that Fenris is an agent and will use it if we ask him to, or I would have taken it already.

Who still needs to vote? Just @Koodauw and @TechGod?

 

[Don't panic]

I don't understand why mission 1 is such a challenge for you Fenris? We have to take both the votes and the leaders choices on mission 1 with a "grain of salt". You talk numbers like they matter, "the chances of mscriv picking X spies and then giving plots to so and so... blah, blah, blah". Being an agent team leader on mission 1 is extremely difficult. You literally have nothing to go on and whomever you select for the team you also have to give the plots, 1 to each. All analysis of mission 1 is after the fact. If I randomly selected two spies then guess what, two spies got plot cards too. There is no way of knowing the breakdown so even looking at the player order is only somewhat helpful when you are trying to make decisions.

You all made such a big deal about establishing a chain and so I put out the cards in a way where that was possible. As I've already posted, I thought it was a waste to do so and so I did vocally advocate the use of Eavesdrop on DP, but if I was a spy I would never have risked that. Think about it, if I'm a spy and I give the Establish Confidence to my fellow spy Wood so he can lie to cover me, then why in the world would I risk giving Eavesdrop to Koodauw who could use it on me. That would mean that with one move, on mission 1, the agents could bust two spies. Being a spy is all about blending in and making your move at the right moment, not risking everything as early as possible. You have repeatedly said, "if I was a spy that's what I would do...." Don't take things out of context. Of course, any spy team leader would Establish Confidence to a fellow spy. That truth doesn't lend credibility to your argument because that's not all of the information. What would a spy do with both the Eavesdrop and Establish Confidence and the player selection I had. Let's do an apples to apples comparison that acknowledges all of the factors. If you take all of it into consideration then me being a spy would mean I risked it all by making a bonehead move on mission 1. Is that really plausible to you?

What I think is odd is that you are clinging to one piece of evidence to support your claim of agent status, the fact that you suggested putting Wood Under Surveillance. That's all you've got and you expect it to be enough for us. I've clearly demonstrate how "far out there" your conspiracy theories are regarding my guilt and I've got way more evidence to back me yet you still seem to be doing everything you can to discredit and cast doubt in my direction.

this is an excellent point. it counteracts giving the establish confidence to wood.

 

[Koodauw]

I vote Yay

 

[Don't panic]

I'm going to chime in and echo what some are saying - you guys are just going in circles and repeating the same stuff.

The bottom line is that we aren't going to get any more info without putting a team through. Doesn't have to be this one, but that is the only way we'll get more info. At this point, you guys can continue to go around and around but you aren't saying anything new. I'm an agent and like you guys I want to get this right, but pages and pages of the same stuff is going to help get new, solid info.

It's definitely frustrating that only a few are participating, I am certainly guilty of it myself, but damn if you guys aren't making it harder to catch up! We just need to finish up voting on this and move on to the next.

Remember, we have the cushion of no-confidence if we get plots that don't help (or that reveal spies that could fail the mission). I actually trust that Fenris is an agent and will use it if we ask him to, or I would have taken it already.

Who still needs to vote? Just @Koodauw and @TechGod?

not so fast. you could only take it during mission phase, so not until this mission gets yay's (or the next one)

koodauw, tech and wood yet to vote. it will be interesting if wood casts the deciding vote