@twietee I've been thinking over the 3 possibilities ever since mission 2 failed.
I've said many times I think it very likely a spy leader who got establish confidence would give it to a fellow spy. Anything else would immediately out them as a spy. We agree on that?
I always thought that more likely than the Koodauw/DP spy team theory. You clearing mscriv as well it made it unlikely althought still possible but it now required some luck for the spies with you getting eavesdrop to use on mscriv which is why I was then thinking it was the simpler explanation of QoS being a spy.
Finding out for certain Wood is a spy makes it possible that a spy gave it another spy, probability wise its slightly unlikely that an agent would have randomly created that team and given establish confidence to a spy. There is also evidence to suggest possible team orders to Wood to fail mission 3.
Ok - the 3 scenarios again.
DP/Wood/Koodauw spies
Mission 1
mscriv randomly creates a team with 2 or more spies and gave establish confidence to 1 of them ~28.6% probability
He also gave eavesdrop to the other spy on the team who was then able to eavesdrop on a spy and clear him. Haven't calculated the probablity of this but it seems unlikely.
Mission 2
Koodauw chooses to create a team with 2 or more spies on it, and gives under surveillance to one of them
So far this feels unlikely - can continue analyzing it but I've not seen anything that really makes it seem any more likely
QoS/Wood spies
Mission 1
mscriv randomly creates a team with 2 or more spies and gave establish confidence to 1 of them. ~28.6% probability
Mission 2
Kooduaw randomly gives under surveillance to 1 of the spies (50% chance)
The mission 1 team choice is slightly unlikely but everything following from it is plausible. QoS could have failed mission 2 while Wood hid. Wood could have been only spy on mission 3 so forced to vote failure. It kinda explains why QoS and Wood both didn't care which of the two of them got under surveillance - as it just helped them know who to hide.
If its true - it likely that Koodauw and DP are agents (<5% chance of an agent picking 3 spies for the first team). It doesn't prevent mscriv/Twietee also being spies though.
Mission 3.2
QoS team: mscriv, Twietee, WoodNUFC, Fenris - the only difference between this and TechGod's team which only Wood failed is that I'm switched for Sythas. I know I'm an agent so that means
QoS either put a team with just 1 spy Wood on it so the spies would either miss a mission or Wood would have to out himself.
@twietee do you think that Is that likely?
Or there is another spy in there and they choose to out Wood and keep the other spy hidden. That other spy would have to be Twietee and/or mscriv. You will of course say it has to be me.
mscriv/Wood/Twietee spies
Mission 1
mscriv picks a team and puts 1 spy on it. When the establish confidence comes out he gives it to the spy to clear himself. Eavesdrop is given where it could be used to out him but Wood has already made sure that no one thinks double clearing mscriv is a good idea so its reasonably safe to do so. Giving establish confidence to a fellow spy is a sensible move and what I'd have done in mscriv's place.
Mission 2
Koodauw randomly puts 1 of the two spies under surveillance (50% chance). QoS didn't care since she was an agent. Wood didn't care since it helped him hide and mscriv vote fail without needing to resort to any additional discussion that may have been noticed.
Mission 3.1
DP gives eavesdrop to Twietee who clears mscriv - mscriv is now the only person cleared by two people. At this point this option looks very unlikely.
Mission 3.3
Wood fails the mission - mscriv is now only cleared by Twietee so the possibility is more likely again.
So to summarize a bit.
In strict order of probability I'd put it as
QoS most likely
mscriv
DP very unlikely.
DP spy scenario being very unlikely combined with the fact if mscriv is a spy DP can't be and if QoS is a spy, its unlikely that DP is makes me think we should trust DP.
QoS team choice counts in her favor as if she's a spy and mscriv/Twietee are telling the truth and are agents it would force Wood to expose himself as a spy. It's more likely if she was a spy that she included a second spy so Wood could hide until needed to vote failure at the end. In which case Twietee has to be the other spy (or she put all 3 spies on her team and mscriv/Twietee are both spies).
Still there's not much to choose between QoS and mscriv possibilities but if mscriv is a spy Twietee definitely is, if QoS is a spy its likely Twietee is. Sorry Twietee.
)) is that his story contains, as usual, lots of sound logic - you only have a chance to catch him in the details - and that means you really have to have time at your hand (and a calculator 
