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Everyone likes to talk about the “services business” but really those are just as ones for the hardware. In my opinion, this is no real, future-proof service business.

What Microsoft and AWS are doing (among others) is a real service business. You don’t need Windows or surface devices to use Azure. You dont need Echo or whatever to use AWS.

But Apples services are basically made up of cloud storage for their hardware devices, damage protection for their hardware devices, Apps for their hardware devices and music for their hardware devices.

The only “real” service is Apple Music because that at least works on android and is not completely dependent on the hardware.

You forgot to mention the huge wedge they get from Google to be default search engine on the phone which gets lumped into services.
 
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Company just posted an $84B quarter. But I get it..you don’t like the mac side of the house. I dont really care about the mac side of the house.

Mac-side? I'm talking about the pro-side (although 'side' is misleading). Actually create something with IOS other than a tiktok video. I doubt dare you.

iPhones aren't used to create, only consume. I can do that with any web browser.
[doublepost=1546640129][/doublepost]The hilarious thing is if Apple wants to get serious about providing a back-end which their i-toys can interface with, they'll have to either bring back Xserve or run off someone else's platform. Why anyone would want to be tied to Apple's proprietary crap in the first place is beyond me, however. Maybe the next iPhone won't even have a web browser and instead have the internet presented via AppleShare and HyperCard 4.0.

I mean, don't get me wrong; I get the 'app' revolution. In some rare cases it's actually led to productivity gains. Nobody is using Apple for enterprise except as the final interface, however, so what's stopping people from just switching to a cheaper device?

Gee, who could have predicted this? Methinks Tim Cook spends too much time at the Gap and not enough in the stockroom. He probably blew Apple's budget on a thunderbolt vibrator powered by Windows.
 
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You do remember that point in 1997, when–barring a $150 million cash loan from Microsoft that Jobs had to personally ask Gates for–Apple was about to declare bankruptcy? That loan also negotiated away Apple's right to sue Microsoft over macOS copyright infringements. Not exactly a winning position to be in.

Nope. Not at all. At the time I was a just an Apple advocate and buying up their stock with whatever pocket change I could spare. And I have continued to do so since then every chance I can get, such as yesterday when the stock tanked. I took some liquidity that I had and bought up as many shares as I could. I have already made a profit on those shares.

I like to say that "Steve is providing my retirement income."

Thanks, Steve!

MacDann
 
If we assume War, then Apple isn't the only one that will have problems. And its latest results shows, despite Greater China dropping 50% YoY, Apple still manage to loss only 5% of its projected revenue. That is pretty resilience if you ask me.

Edit: Is there a Video link of that speech? Cant find anything on Google.
No video, or if there is, it is internal DoD only. And just to be clear, I don’t think it will be war as much as it’s a signal that the Trump administration still has plans for sticking it to China. And this uncertainty and rhetoric is not going to help Apple’s situation.
 
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I’d be buying shares here.

Apple didn’t buy back many shares in calendar Q4. Get all the bad news out and start buying back stock hard. They have $71B left in their buyback authorization from May 2018.

The numbers didn’t look that bad in other areas:

19% non iPhone business growth.
25% services growth.
50% wearables growth.
Double digit iPad growth.
Record iPhone revenues in US, Canada, Germany.

This is an iPhone in China story. They will have to fix that, but the world isn’t ending at Apple.
Glad I bought those shares. Dead on analysis.

Hope some of you listened to reasonable advice during a time of doom and gloom. Things can always change, but those gains are real today. Sell if you must; Apple is certainly more fairly valued now.
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I am not saying Apple is doomed. i am just thinking right now it isn't at the bottom. They have stopped reporting unit sales. That is fine but they will be treated suspiciously for a few quarters. If they report less revenue people are going to assume that right now they don't have enough services. Any miss of any kind on profits right now is punished severely by the trading robots.

If somebody wants to buy AAPL and forget it for years they will probably be fine.
Hope you listened to me.
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Angela Ahrendts will be the next Apple CEO.

Bookmark me.
This is why this kind of analysis is totally pointless. You’re just guessing, based on zero facts.

Instead, do something productive. You can analyze a company and decide the stock is too cheap (which AAPL was when this thread was posted) and I explained why you should buy it in this thread. Apple at $140 was a joke.

You were dead wrong and Cook has once again proven he is the best guy for the job and a top 3 CEO in the WORLD.
 
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Honestly, Apple needed this kick in the rear. The market has spoken about the pricing of Apple's products (in relation to features). Time to innovate again and sell products at reasonable prices.
And yet, still wrong and way too simple of an analysis. Apple needed to execute better in China and signs have showed they managing to do so.

More importantly, the market started to understand the story of Apple and give their prodigious earnings the respect they’ve deserved for so long.

The report that sent shares down was a response to the issues in China, not a pricing or innovation issue. Every other market performed as expected.
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It’s honestly not the perfect time to buy. theirs no justification right now to buy. The trade war with China is still on going. I think the stock is going to continue to fall. No new products except for an iPad mini in the first half of the year... I would wait it out the next 4-5 months. And buy in around WWDC..
Stick to your day job.
 
Circling back on this post after a year (it's now 12/27/19). Had you bought this stock at this price, you would be currently seeing a gain of 100%. It's currently trading at $288. Bought ten shares for $144? Now you have $2,880!

BUY THE DIP!!!

I prefer to diversify and buy mutual funds that contain some Apple stock.
 
There is no such thing as an edge unless you are getting insider trading.

Even the best predictions are still predictions.

Diversification is never risky unless everything goes down.
Warren Buffett has said diversification is for idiots. I don’t necessarily agree, but a few opportunities will present themselves over time and you can profit if you’re aggressive and seize them. Apple at $90 a few years ago and $140 last year were 2 of those. Simply too cheap and insane to be trading there.
 
it was a nasty dip for apple with a big surge up. Anybody that is jumping into this area watch out. Definitely needs a cool off correction soon or now.
 
Stock market is full on scam these days anyway. Massive amount of Enron style accounting happening in many places, market manipulation, using imported cheap labor, using slave labor and offshore tax dodging.
 
Anyone that says to put all your eggs in one basket probably would not be the best long term financial advisor. It is why diversifying has its advantages depending on your circumstances.

Case in point, one person listened to the resident “Macrumors financial guru” here and lost quite a bit of money when they bought at 190 but dropped to the 140s. They weren’t prepared for the volatility and whined about it. They are lucky now that it has gone up because it’s just paper money until you sell.

Nothing is ever for certain in financial markets, and it’s why it’s always a risk.
 
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Hindsight is 50/50 as they say, and it’s interesting to go back and view the past year. And oh, what a difference a year makes.

Those who understand the markets and rode the Apple wave were rewarded. Seems like the “Macrumors financial guru” may know a thing or two.
 
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Anyone that says to put all your eggs in one basket probably would not be the best long term financial advisor. It is why diversifying has its advantages depending on your circumstances.

Case in point, one person listened to the resident “Macrumors financial guru” here and lost quite a bit of money when they bought at 190 but dropped to the 140s. They weren’t prepared for the volatility and whined about it. They are lucky now that it has gone up because it’s just paper money until you sell.

Nothing is ever for certain in financial markets, and it’s why it’s always a risk.
I don’t know who you’re talking about, but after buying Apple at $190, the strategy at $140 should be buying more or waiting. Never sell a company doing exceedingly well because the market overreacts to news and the stock drops.

I pointed out in this thread all the positives Apple had going for it, despite the dip to the $140s.

The story at Apple didn’t change just because they ran into some China headwinds and stopped reporting unit sales.

Apple at $140 was a gift.

In general, the biggest risk is NOT being in equity markets. It’s the single best way to grow your money, empirically. You will never make enough money if you avoid stocks. Cash is probably the riskiest asset to stay in long term.
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Stock market is full on scam these days anyway. Massive amount of Enron style accounting happening in many places, market manipulation, using imported cheap labor, using slave labor and offshore tax dodging.
Don’t know what pessimistic posts like these mean. Again, stocks are the only game in town. Avoid them at your own peril. Not every company is evil. Many of them make real products and services we can enjoy and in turn make real money.

The accounting allowed at Enron is no longer allowed and no one is talking about companies like Enron in this thread. Apple is as far from Enron as a company can be. No one understood how Enron made money.
 
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Hindsight is 50/50 as they say, and it’s interesting to go back and view the past year. And oh, what a difference a year makes.

Those who understand the markets and rode the Apple wave were rewarded. Seems like the “Macrumors financial guru” may know a thing or two.


And what if they were wrong? I remember when Baymowe bent over and apologized profusely during the China debacle. Then the instant the prices went back up, forget their temporary display of humility. We can easily dig up these funny posts and show what kind of person this is. He is just another analyst and should be taken with a grain of salt just like all the “bearish” analysts on these forums.

The only thing he knew to do was react to the market. Although I don’t disagree with him, He’s been knocking down Tesla but still going up. So many things, including Apple, right now are close to their all time high. If the financial markets and Apple were so easy to predict, everyone would be all in. I would expect him to liquidate his entire portfolio and throw all into Apple. His last gloat post i read indicated he diversified somewhat 🤣

Lastly on what reward really is. I tell everyone you are only rewarded when you sell. There is no tangible reward if you don’t sell. It is fun though to see your portfolio numbers including Apple go way up.
 
And what if they were wrong? I remember when Baymowe bent over and apologized profusely during the China debacle. Then the instant the prices went back up, forget their temporary display of humility. We can easily dig up these funny posts and show what kind of person this is. He is just another analyst and should be taken with a grain of salt just like all the “bearish” analysts on these forums.

The only thing he knew to do was react to the market. Although I don’t disagree with him, He’s been knocking down Tesla but still going up. So many things, including Apple, right now are close to their all time high. If the financial markets and Apple were so easy to predict, everyone would be all in. I would expect him to liquidate his entire portfolio and throw all into Apple. His last gloat post i read indicated he diversified somewhat 🤣

Lastly on what reward really is. I tell everyone you are only rewarded when you sell. There is no tangible reward if you don’t sell. It is fun though to see your portfolio numbers including Apple go way up.
The difference is I’m consistent and unequivocal about my long term Apple position. I said it was undervalued and have consistently said so. We are just now getting to a reasonable valuation. I was right, call me “any other analyst” all you want. I had a much higher long term PT long before it was trading at $290 or any analyst on the street called it. I was first. I’ve been accumulating shares like crazy at various times under $200.

Even you can agree I’ve been consistent, never wavering.

I also said it was an overreaction and a buying opportunity at the time. I also said the issue was limited to China and the other markets were insanely strong. I mentioned the cash flow, profitability, cash position, buyback, valuation, and active device count with a growing emphasis on wearables and services.

I wouldn’t own Tesla for valuation reasons. They have to be profitable. I’ve been on record saying Elon Musk is a genius and I certainly wouldn’t bet against him or Tesla. I simply don’t believe in buying companies that are losing money.

I don’t have to be right on every company. I don’t have to have a financial position on every stock. I buy what I understand. I understand Apple and it was undervalued at $140, like I pounded the table it was. Market has confirmed my position. Sell now if you must and the advice was free and extremely valuable if you acted.

I told you Tim Cook was a beast too.
 
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I've been long in Apple since the mid 1990s. Every spare penny I had went into Apple stock for a number of years. I will retire comfortably courtesy of Steve and friends.

With a stock like Apple you've got to be in for the long game. It's not a stock for day traders. You also have to ignore the daily fluctuations of the markets or you'll have an ulcer or die early from stress. As long as it continues to go up day after day, even in small increments, you're ahead of the game.

MacDann
 
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