I don't think its this cut and tried, and I don't think the analogy is valid.
First, Apple has a point, Flash is not a good mobile technology. Maybe one day it will become one, but Apple has succeeded not in being *first* to market, but *best* to market (in terms of experience for the user). Sure, you could argue that a lack of Flash is a "user experience issue", but certainly the world is not perfect and here Apple is making the choice between not having support for poor technologies and offering credible alternatives and future technology paths (that many in the marketplace are moving to) or continuing to support a poor technology that in and of itself is a poor user experience that just creates more problems (battery life, stability, etc).
Second, Adobe is *NOT* an open platform, either. This isn't about Apple locking down their platform as much as it is about Apple knowing how to create a good user experience and developer ecosystem. Flash on iOS has its upsides, but I don't see of any of them outweighing the downsides - whether you are a user, a developer (unless all you do is Flash/are Adobe, in which case you have bigger problems...diversify!), a business person, or Apple.
Third, Flash encourages designers to create user experiences that just don't work with mobile and multi-touch. Sure, you can slap on some mobile interface adjuncts in to Flash, but its lipstick on a pig. Flash well-implemented on a desktop device is rare, taking that same mediocre body of applications and trying to make it work on a environment that is fundamentally different in terms of user interface, experience, and hardware/software is not going to make things any better. Quite the opposite.
Finally, Flash is obselete. Sure, it is still very, very commonplace, but what application-level stuff does Flash do that other technologies don't? And technical differences like codecs, etc, etc aren't answers to that question - the question here is what application of the technology would Flash provide and provide in a more suitable/stable/better UX manner than the newer, more efficient technologies that are widely available? The answer is very few to none. Flash doesn't do anything really well, it does a bunch of things pretty poorly - it is good at a few things - but nothing other technologies can't do better, cheaper, and faster.
This isn't about Apple ruling a roost (well, kind of it is, but that's not the real problem here), this is about Adobe needing to deal with a dead technology and create a business model that doesn't rely on Flash.
The death knells for Apple have been called so many times, by so many pundits, on so many more serious issues. Sure, this is a hiccup, people are upset iOS devices won't eat Flash - but they'd also be upset with their iOS device "just didn't work" not because the device was poorly built/designed, but because it deigned itself to accept poor technology in the name of being "open" with Adobe (it makes me chuckle to see Adobe claim they're an open standards/technology company...not buying it).
Sadly, I think Adobe is envisioning a future where Android rules and iOS is forgotten. Therefore, they don't see any point in fighting for iOS flash.
Just another sign that iOS vs Android are the new Windows vs Macintosh.
Windows sucks, but it was licensed onto many computers and widely adopted. Macintosh was better, but it was stuck to its own hardware.
So disappointing.