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Lots of prototype test-cases are happening, doesn't mean they'll be viable at all in real-world conditions.

Again, it is NEVER going to happen.

EVER.

Right now they're far more dangerous than gas-powered motorcycles driven by teenagers, as shown by their accident rates.

Meanwhile, there are some car models that have NEVER had a driver fatality.
Correct. I drive one of those vehicles. There has never been a recorded fatality in the model I drive, anywhere on Earth. On top of that, I've driven well over a million miles, and never had an accident. Not a bump or scratch or curb scrape. Nothing. Getting into an autonomous vehicle would be a HUGE downgrade in safety for me. Screw that.
 
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BTW, people forget one thing with LVL5 fully autonomous vehicles.

This kind should drive in any situation and any road, not just California, not just sunny weather.

Driving on highway is relatively easy, you usually do not have to worry for vehicles coming from the other lane, children playing on the street, cyclists etc., but on regular roads you do.

Pluse you also have to drive in other continents, not just on wide American roads.

Go to Italy and people will scream, shout at you if you do not drive fast enough at green lights, and there are even worse countries to drive, such as people driving 4 cars in 3 lane streets and similar, and this is just a usual driving scenario which happens each day, if you want to look those scenarios just use YouTube and check them out how stupidly people are driving and still there are not that many fatalities on the road (and yes, each death that can be prevented is a tragedy).

And IMHO we are quite a long way from LVL 5 autonomous driving.
 
Meanwhile, I'm expecting a software update for my Model 3 within the next two weeks enabling Full Self Driving. That'll be pushed out to about a million customer owned vehicles.

Feel free to check for all the videos of people using Tesla's Full Self Driving beta already on YouTube - hundreds if not thousands of beta testers already out there.

Waymo is operating hundreds of vehicles with nobody in them on public roads, too.
So why do YOU think self-driving cars have a higher fatality rate than motorcycles?

And when do you think Waymo will allow their self-driving cars to operate at highway speeds?
 
Electric vehicles have been around for quite a while, the most notable ones being the Ford EV1 (modeled after the Probe) and Toyota's RAV4 EV way back from the Nineties.
Just for the record, the EV1 was General Motors and decidedly not based on the Ford Probe. :)
 
We're so close to this happening, autonomous, that it's already happening.

A new base Corolla has the tech to drive down a straight road w/o your input now.

Budweiser already has had a completely autonomous truck deliver beer from Ft. Collins to Colorado Springs several years ago.

Safety is driving this more than anything and it will be the biggest step forward in highway safety and efficiency we've seen since the three point safety belt Volvo gave us and the Interstate Highway system.

Insurance companies are frothing at the mouth to get you out of the driver's seat.

It's the safety 'sell' that has me concerned.

In a test: https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/

: Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek execute a wireless Zero-Day exploit!
Trust me ... safety is the sell ... but there is no security nor assurity of on-board backup systems being talked about/promised and assured.

Imagine ... 50 people on a highway overpass and ALL cars suddenly have been zero-dayed and boom crashes, run off the bridge ... it would get ugly.
 


Apple is continuing work on developing some kind of autonomous vehicle product, and the project is under new leadership. Apple artificial intelligence lead John Giannandrea is now overseeing Apple Car development as prior lead Bob Mansfield has retired, reports Bloomberg.

lexussuvselfdriving2.jpg


One of the self-driving vehicles Apple uses to test its autonomous driving software

It's been quite some time since we heard news about the Apple Car, but Project Titan as the car development is known is now in the hands of Giannandrea, though day to day operations continue to be overseen by Doug Field.

Field was reporting to Bob Mansfield, who came out of retirement in 2016 to handle the Apple Car project. Mansfield first retired in June 2012, but ultimately remained at Apple as an advisor. Prior to being led by Mansfield, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering Dan Riccio was overseeing work on the Apple Car.

Giannandrea is Apple's senior vice president of AI and machine learning, and Project Titan's hundreds of engineers are now under his watch. Giannandrea also heads up Siri development and Apple's work on machine learning.

Apple has been working on some kind of self-driving car technology since 2014, but development has been stymied by technical and leadership challenges. Apple was originally working on a full car, but focus seems to have shifted to an in-car autonomous driving system. Apple continues to have dozens of self-driving test vehicles out on the road.

Back in 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed that Apple is working on autonomous driving software. "We're focusing on autonomous systems. It's a core technology that we view as very important. We sort of see it as the mother of all AI projects. It's probably one of the most difficult AI projects actually to work on," he said.

Article Link: AI Chief John Giannandrea Takes Over Apple Car Project
IF Siri AI is a foreshadow then TITAN is years over the horizon and Generations behind the industry
 


Apple is continuing work on developing some kind of autonomous vehicle product, and the project is under new leadership. Apple artificial intelligence lead John Giannandrea is now overseeing Apple Car development as prior lead Bob Mansfield has retired, reports Bloomberg.

lexussuvselfdriving2.jpg


One of the self-driving vehicles Apple uses to test its autonomous driving software

It's been quite some time since we heard news about the Apple Car, but Project Titan as the car development is known is now in the hands of Giannandrea, though day to day operations continue to be overseen by Doug Field.

Field was reporting to Bob Mansfield, who came out of retirement in 2016 to handle the Apple Car project. Mansfield first retired in June 2012, but ultimately remained at Apple as an advisor. Prior to being led by Mansfield, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering Dan Riccio was overseeing work on the Apple Car.

Giannandrea is Apple's senior vice president of AI and machine learning, and Project Titan's hundreds of engineers are now under his watch. Giannandrea also heads up Siri development and Apple's work on machine learning.

Apple has been working on some kind of self-driving car technology since 2014, but development has been stymied by technical and leadership challenges. Apple was originally working on a full car, but focus seems to have shifted to an in-car autonomous driving system. Apple continues to have dozens of self-driving test vehicles out on the road.

Back in 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed that Apple is working on autonomous driving software. "We're focusing on autonomous systems. It's a core technology that we view as very important. We sort of see it as the mother of all AI projects. It's probably one of the most difficult AI projects actually to work on," he said.

Article Link: AI Chief John Giannandrea Takes Over Apple Car Project
There will never be an Apple car. Never.
 
I think this is more about auto integration than auto manufacture. If they improved CarPlay, I might actually start using it.
 
I doubt Apple will ever produce and sell cars. But I think they might produce and sell car-software to car companies. There is a huge "B2B "business-to-business" market in the automotive industry. I think it would be a smart move for Apple to try to get away frombing 100% consumer focuses and have some industrial customers. My guess is this is where this is going. Notice they already sell "Car Play" which is very minor but still gets them into the automotive B2B market.

So what do they do with a self-drive car? Apple is just trying to gain experience in this area. They may at some point try and find a market. I think an obvious problem for Apple to solve is the car-human interface. So let's say "Grandma" is finally too old to drive. Her eyes just don't see that well and she moves to slow. But now he has a self-drive car! She does not need to drive. But now what? how does she control the car? Is it voice-controlled? Does she say "Take me to Mary's apartment" and the car "knows" her daughter's name is Mary but that Mary lives two states away and the "Mary" she is talking about lives 6 miles away and actually does live in an apartment. The car must be smart enough to understand why Grandma chose to include the word "apartment".

This is a hard problem. How to make a car that is controllable by likely users who include older people who can't drive and even small children. THEN, even worse, I assume many self-drive cars will be empty and driving themselves to the charging station or to the carwash or most likely to the curbside pickup at Walmart. How do these empty cars interact with the people at Walmart, the carwash, or the charge station? What does an empty car do if it is hit by a drunk driver? What happens if the drunk hit the car with a small child inside? What if the passenger suffers a medical emergency or simply trips and falls while getting out of the car?

Can and should a self-drive car have an interface to a watch or phone. How would this work? You can't know unless you have experience with both self-drive cars and watches and phones.

Can two or more self-drive cars be made more safe if they shared data? The car ahead does have a better view of the road, perhaps it could share camera data with the cars that are following. Especially if the car in from is a big truck that blocks the view. What if you suspended the "guts" of a car sensor system from traffic signal. Now the signal can (1) know where cars are and can optimize the light timing and (2) shared it good vantage point and camera data with cars near that intersection and prevent accidents. Data-sharing is going to be a HUGE thing. No more blind spots and cars can see around corners and through objects. Apple might want to be in this market.

These problems are hard to solve but also offer a business opportunity. But to solve them you need to understand self-drive cars, even if you don't intend to make and sell the entire car. You can make a lot of money by solving unsolved problems like this and selling your solutions to car manufactures.
 
1. Globally
2. Over 1 million people die each year from car crashes
3. I never specified a time period.

Lots of prototype test-cases are happening, doesn't mean they'll be viable at all in real-world conditions.

Again, it is NEVER going to happen.

EVER.

Right now they're far more dangerous than gas-powered motorcycles driven by teenagers, as shown by their accident rates.

Meanwhile, there are some car models that have NEVER had a driver fatality.
As stated by others , the problem space for mass adoption is massive. And no one talks about cost. Way to many people on this forum have no idea how most people live and work. Most of the world does not get 6 figure salaries and can pick up a 600 pair of headphones like its a chocolate bar at the 7/11. Some areas will work like point to point long distance trucking, shuttles on closed loop campuses etc. But we are a long ,long way from it replacing the Prius in anyones driveway.
 
As stated by others , the problem space for mass adoption is massive. And no one talks about cost. Way to many people on this forum seem to have any idea how most people live and work. Most of the world does not get 6 figure salaries and can pick up a 600 pair of headphones like its a chocolate bar at the 7/11. Some areas will work like point to point long distance trucking, shuttles on closed loop campuses etc. But we are a long ,long way from it replacing the Prius in anyones driveway.
 
After a ton of patents and piles of cash, I still don't see this coming out in the 2020s. Maybe the 2030s if ever.

Self-drive will be incremental. The low hanging fruit will be first. this means on campus company shuttle vans and long haul highway daytime trucking. Then you see more and better driver assist and safty features on consummer luxtury cars. Then these features are on lower priced cars. After some years they are mandatory on all cars. And self-driving creeps, bit by bit into the mainstream.

Eventualy at some point we at 100% self-drive. But there is no dramatic change over. Maybe it is like the way cars replaced horses. They didn't as we still have horse even if most people have never ridden on a horse.

In 50 years most people will not know how to drive a car and they'd only be allowed to drive on a special reservation or park and not on public roads. This is decades away. But soon we will see the first of this with "hands off" freeway driving.

Funny how some peole have such an emotional reaction to cars. Even human driven electric cars bring up astong fear reaction in some people. They like gas engines and see electric as a threat and have an emotional reaction to the the threat. Self-drive is even worse.

CHange is going to happen, the only real debates is about the rate of change. It is about when not if.
 
I doubt Apple will ever produce and sell cars. But I think they might produce and sell car-software to car companies. There is a huge "B2B "business-to-business" market in the automotive industry. I think it would be a smart move for Apple to try to get away frombing 100% consumer focuses and have some industrial customers. My guess is this is where this is going. Notice they already sell "Car Play" which is very minor but still gets them into the automotive B2B market.

So what do they do with a self-drive car? Apple is just trying to gain experience in this area. They may at some point try and find a market. I think an obvious problem for Apple to solve is the car-human interface. So let's say "Grandma" is finally too old to drive. Her eyes just don't see that well and she moves to slow. But now he has a self-drive car! She does not need to drive. But now what? how does she control the car? Is it voice-controlled? Does she say "Take me to Mary's apartment" and the car "knows" her daughter's name is Mary but that Mary lives two states away and the "Mary" she is talking about lives 6 miles away and actually does live in an apartment. The car must be smart enough to understand why Grandma chose to include the word "apartment".

This is a hard problem. How to make a car that is controllable by likely users who include older people who can't drive and even small children. THEN, even worse, I assume many self-drive cars will be empty and driving themselves to the charging station or to the carwash or most likely to the curbside pickup at Walmart. How do these empty cars interact with the people at Walmart, the carwash, or the charge station? What does an empty car do if it is hit by a drunk driver? What happens if the drunk hit the car with a small child inside? What if the passenger suffers a medical emergency or simply trips and falls while getting out of the car?

Can and should a self-drive car have an interface to a watch or phone. How would this work? You can't know unless you have experience with both self-drive cars and watches and phones.

Can two or more self-drive cars be made more safe if they shared data? The car ahead does have a better view of the road, perhaps it could share camera data with the cars that are following. Especially if the car in from is a big truck that blocks the view. What if you suspended the "guts" of a car sensor system from traffic signal. Now the signal can (1) know where cars are and can optimize the light timing and (2) shared it good vantage point and camera data with cars near that intersection and prevent accidents. Data-sharing is going to be a HUGE thing. No more blind spots and cars can see around corners and through objects. Apple might want to be in this market.

These problems are hard to solve but also offer a business opportunity. But to solve them you need to understand self-drive cars, even if you don't intend to make and sell the entire car. You can make a lot of money by solving unsolved problems like this and selling your solutions to car manufactures.

Will the updated apple software for electric car drain the battery 2% every five minutes when the car is parked, to force the car owner to buy a new car every two years? Sounds like a big win for the auto industry.
 
Yes well despite what some people believe, the thoughts of people living in a handful of congested cities do not reflect everyone.
They don't have to. I mean, the desire for self-driving cars isn't limited to tech geeks. It's anyone in a congested city. That's probably 1/4 the US and most of Europe, population-wise. At least, not a group to dismiss as "nobody."
 
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You are mixing up electric vehicles (EV) with autonomous driving. They are two separate technologies.

Electric vehicles have been around for quite a while, the most notable ones being the Ford EV1 (modeled after the Probe) and Toyota's RAV4 EV way back from the Nineties.
Yeah, but EVs "weren't a thing" until recently. Tesla made the first widely viable electric car. Tesla also made the first widely viable self-driving car. So they are different but related in the consumer's mind.
 
I crossed an entire country in my Tesla without me steering or pressing the accelerator. Ok, it was Denmark, not a huge country but still like 2 hours of driving. Tesla FSD is already out in beta, full release for US likely in December 2020. So FSD is happening, no matter if the world is ready for it or not. My guess is that the world will quickly get ready, as soon as Tesla has enough data to prove that their system is 10x safer than the average human, some country/states will allow it and these countries will gain a lot by having safer/cheaper/more convenient transport and soon other will follow.
 
As stated by others , the problem space for mass adoption is massive. And no one talks about cost. Way to many people on this forum have no idea how most people live and work. Most of the world does not get 6 figure salaries and can pick up a 600 pair of headphones like its a chocolate bar at the 7/11. Some areas will work like point to point long distance trucking, shuttles on closed loop campuses etc. But we are a long ,long way from it replacing the Prius in anyones driveway.
don't need a six figure salary for a model 3.
 
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