I don’t think that it going the way of airpower is any type of possibility. Airpower didn’t work because it was actually having technical difficulties. These are definitely not having technical difficulties. In fact, apple leaked them themselves. A lot of people forget that back in April, an Apple support video was uploaded with mention of airtags in it, then immediately taken down not even an hour later.
It probably all has to do with them trying to find the perfect time to release it.
They probably wanted to show it off in an event, but it wasn’t ready for the iPhone 11 event last year.
They didn’t have an event in March of this year, and even then, a tracking device being introduced in the middle of a nationwide lockdown would have been absolutely laughable timing.
So my guess is this fall. If it’s not coming this fall, then I don’t think it’s coming at all.
I'm also excited about AirTags, but with a caveat... Given Apple's recent behavior and trajectory, there's no way these will simply be sold as a product. Apple will almost certainly require you to subscribe to an AirTags service for an additional monthly fee. And personally, I've pretty much had it with adding more recurring monthly expenses.