The flu virus usually dies after 2 days on hard surfaces. The COVID-19 virus survives 9 days, so it is easier to come into contact with a live version of it. The regular flu kills 0.1% of people infected. COVID-19 kills 2.0 - 3.4% of people infected, which is 20 to 34 TIMES more deadly. If a normal flu season kills 20,000 people in the U.S., the COVID-19 virus would kill at least 20 times that amount, so 400,000 people. With the numbers you provided, and the real world numbers being seen with COVID-19, the number of Americans dying could be 1,040,000 to 1,768,000. Also it has to been taken into account how many people will be SERIOUSLY ill and need hospitalization to survive. You don't know if those dead or seriously ill will be you or a family member. Your demise could end up just a footnote in the history of the world pandemic of 2020. People are wise to be taking serious precautions.
The initial case fatality rate (CFR) of any pandemic or epidemic caused by a novel pathogen is almost always wildly overstated, not deliberately, but due to 'fog of war'. The early CFR figures for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic were 10 times higher than what was eventually determined to be the case. The
true CFR of COVID-19 will almost certainly be much lower than the 2 to 3.4% range that you have cited, as diagnostic kits improve and other confounding factors are sorted out, all of which will take some time.
Fortunately, we have a tantalizing confirmation that panic is overdone and counter-productive. Remember the COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship?
Data on the outbreak is now available from Japanese authorities, and the CFR for this localized outbreak looks much, much less scary.
But two things to keep in mind first:
1) People who go on cruises are generally healthy, or rather, healthy enough to travel (although the rate of underlying conditions is not lower than that of the general population), and
2) The demographics on cruises tend to be older, although I cannot confirm this to be the case for Diamond Princess from the Japanese data linked above; but it is not an unreasonable assumption to make.
So what does the data from Diamond Princess tell us and why is it significant? A quarantined cruise ship is an ideal natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled. We know that all but one patient boarded the boat without the virus. We know that the other passengers were healthy enough to travel. We know their whereabouts and exposures. While the numbers coming out of China are scary, we don’t know how many of those patients were already ill for other reasons (it's peak flu season in China). How many were already hospitalized for another life-threatening illness and then caught the virus? How many were completely healthy, caught the virus, and developed a critical illness? In the real world, we just don’t know (yet).
Of the 3711 people on board the Diamond Princess (a good sample size), 705 have tested positive for the virus, but the actual infected figure is likely higher due to the unreliability of current test kits. Considering the confined spaces on the ship and the duration of the quarantine, the contagiousness of COVID-19 is surprisingly low. Of those tested positive, more than half are without symptoms, while
very few asymptomatic people were prioritized for testing in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.
On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, making for an initial case fatality rate of 0.85%.
The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are older than 70 years of age.
Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. This is the opposite of H1N1, which killed more young people than old.
Of course, a CFR of 0.85 is nothing to sneeze at (pardon the pun), but these patients were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads due to their being on a confined ship, which significantly worsens the illness. Also, treatment was not available for these patients for quite some time due to the ship being at sea and repeatedly denied entry from port to port, which is itself a humanitarian travesty. Therefore, the true CFR for Diamond Princess is likely even lower, maybe significantly lower.
All of the above indicates that COVID-19 is benign for children and non-geriatric adults but potentially fatal for the old and chronically ill. So it seems that the focus should be on preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the truly vulnerable populations: those over the age of 70 and those with pre-existing conditions. I'm talking about nursing homes, hospices, long-term care facilities and so on.
Unfortunately, I don't think we are doing that presently. The media (as usual) is performing a disservice with politicized editorials and sniping when scientific facts and expert medical advice should instead be filling the airwaves and newspaper pages. I'm afraid we may have a man-made disaster on our hands.