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Analyst: 2010 iPad Shipments Could Reach 8-10 Million

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Fortune reports on a new research note from analyst Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley citing iPad suppliers now forecasting shipments of 8-10 million iPads for calendar year 2010, up from previous estimates of around 5 million. The report notes, however, that shipments are not necessarily equal to sales, as some of that production will remain in distribution channels at the end of the year. Consequently, Huberty maintains a sales estimate of 6+ million iPads for the year.
According to Huberty, investors who are bearish on the iPad say it lacks a "killer app." Apple's near-term market, she counters, is the sub-$800 notebook computer market (30 million units in the U.S. and 120 million units globally). Longer term, she expects the books, magazines, video and iPad-optimized apps currently in the works to broaden that market.
Over the shorter term March-to-May timeframe, suppliers are now reporting that they expect to ship 2.5 million iPads during the initial surge, up significantly from Huberty's earlier estimate of 750,000 through the end of June. Analyst reports earlier this month had reported some delays in early iPad production that would limit launch quantities, although it is unclear exactly what the source of the delays were and what the magnitude of their effect has been on unit quantities.

Huberty, a prominent tech industry analyst, had been noted for her bearish estimates on Apple's financial performance over the past several years, but has come around in recent months to issue several reports citing Apple's leadership position in the mobile Internet industry and offering strong "bull case scenarios" for Apple's future growth.

Article Link: Analyst: 2010 iPad Shipments Could Reach 8-10 Million
 

zombitronic

macrumors 65816
Feb 9, 2007
1,115
6
It is amazing that this is the same woman who declared the sky falling quarter after quarter. I wonder what made her change her views.
 

NebulaClash

macrumors 68000
Feb 4, 2010
1,810
0
I'm telling ya, this is the start of something bigger than anyone realizes. This will be a new era in computing and we will look back on 2010 as the starting point of the non-mouse, full-Star Trek UI future.
 

vincebio

macrumors 6502a
Jun 27, 2005
792
47
Glasgow
here we go again with these bloody analysts...

the first paragraph of the article basically says "we say 5million, but could be more...but we say 6 million instead"

the dont have a clue, just like anyone else whats going to happen...


the first 4 letters in their job title really does describe these people perfectly...
 

itickings

macrumors 6502a
Apr 14, 2007
928
7
I'm telling ya, this is the start of something bigger than anyone realizes. This will be a new era in computing and we will look back on 2010 as the starting point of the non-mouse, full-Star Trek UI future.

Who knows? I for one wasn't very impressed at first, but I've since turned around and now want one. :p

Niche or huge, time will tell.
 

interestedabit

macrumors member
Feb 3, 2006
82
0
Who knows? I for one wasn't very impressed at first, but I've since turned around and now want one. :p

Same with a lot of the audio guys, then we see things like this being cooked up and wow.. Actually a lot of people that I spoke to in February were a bit skeptical and now are wanting to get their hands on one asap, me included.

 

Hirth

macrumors newbie
May 11, 2009
29
0
Can you imagine the battery life?

Indeed. A 30 microgram capsule lasts for several centuries. (Actually, I just ran the numbers and, if I haven't made a mistake 30 micrograms of antimatter, mixed with an equal amount of matching matter, should yield about 1500 kilowatt-hours of energy as gamma rays. Given that the actual battery is rated at 25 watt-hours, that's about 60,000 charges or 600,000 hours, or 68 years. With life like that, you wouldn't need an Off switch. Of course, this assumes a perfect gamma radiation to electricity conversion efficiency.)
 

talkingfuture

macrumors 65816
Dec 4, 2008
1,216
0
The back of beyond.
Thats a lot of iPads. Its nice to see the excitement building near launch after the rather limp reaction to its initial announcement. Perhaps people are seeing the apps and starting to get it. I predict a big ramp up after launch as more people see what it can do.
 

lincolntran

macrumors 6502a
Jan 18, 2010
843
471
Same with a lot of the audio guys, then we see things like this being cooked up and wow.. Actually a lot of people that I spoke to in February were a bit skeptical and now are wanting to get their hands on one asap, me included.

WOW!

Now, if someone can come up with the same controls but for driving car. THAT will be the killer app. :D
 

mambodancer

macrumors 6502
Apr 12, 2004
411
4
Denver
I'm telling ya, this is the start of something bigger than anyone realizes. This will be a new era in computing and we will look back on 2010 as the starting point of the non-mouse, full-Star Trek UI future.

+1. If this predication of unit sales turns out to be correct these numbers would mean about a 30-40% market share compared to netbook sales.
 

eastercat

macrumors 68040
Mar 3, 2008
3,323
7
PDX
Although I think they might be inflating the figures, the optimism is good. However, I'm still going to wait another year or two before I even think about getting one.
 

Oskar1921

macrumors newbie
Mar 2, 2010
14
0
It is amazing that this is the same woman who declared the sky falling quarter after quarter. I wonder what made her change her views.

Simple. She bought some stock last week and needs to pump it up. :)
 

vt220

macrumors newbie
Jun 10, 2009
14
0
THEY would better ship NEW macbook pros and mac pros!!!!
But I understand its difficult with that Core Is; All that other Wintel vendors don't offer that new hyper future stuff, too...Ah **** I forgot about dell, acer, asus, samsung and all thoses others....

Really pissed off.......but "not to worry"...pffff
 

D-Dave

macrumors 6502
Mar 16, 2010
332
59
+1. If this predication of unit sales turns out to be correct these numbers would mean about a 30-40% market share compared to netbook sales.

Not meaning to be smart...but you seem to be mixing U.S. Sales (30 million units) with predicted wolrdwide sales (8-10 Million) plus adding some :apple: bonus math (1/3 = 33%) :)
 

eyehop

macrumors regular
Oct 31, 2005
129
5
The Killer App is the web. Web applications. Cloud computing. This is the first product that fulfills these buzzword notions, and is only the beginning. I'd love to see Google get going with Chrome OS implementations, and watch these two compete.
 

sanPietro98

macrumors 6502a
May 30, 2008
642
1
28.416834,-81.581214
According to Huberty, investors who are bearish on the iPad say it lacks a "killer app." Apple's near-term market, she counters, is the sub-$800 notebook computer market (30 million units in the U.S. and 120 million units globally). Longer term, she expects the books, magazines, video and iPad-optimized apps currently in the works to broaden that market.

I don't understand this line of thought. There is never ONE "killer app". Every user will have his/her own killer app based on what they want to do with the device. Is there a killer app for OSX? This is ridiculous.
 
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