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Analyst: 2010 iPad Shipments Could Reach 8-10 Million
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I'll bet you cave in and buy an iPad this year from an eBay scalper because you just can't wait for Apple's two week lead time.
On another note, When the iPad sales were being pegged at 3.5 million for the year, I was predicting 7 million units. Now, bears like Katy Huberty are predicting numbers far beyond my own... this is going to be so big that VP Biden will have to find another adjective to define it.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict that the iPad will add so much to China's economy that Apple will invited to open an uncensored search engine in China by next year... now THAT'S big.
We have a winner! I've been lining up a bunch of shorts since things are looking a little toppy on the market as a whole.
A) That works on stock prices, not unit shipments of new products.
B) There are plenty of Apple bears around who just love to dump on the company any excuse they get.
10 million shipped, 6 million actually sold - I find both numbers excessively optimistic. I think a few millions would be nice to achieve. How does anybody come up with a number like 10 million? That must be the total of 8 months sale of the Wii, Nintendo DS, iPhone 3GS and Kindle DX (or whatever they call that device, and I know that Amazon haven't released an official data for the Kindles).
The market as a whole is indeed looking a bit toppy. And as we saw the last time the market tanked, AAPL went right down with the broader market. Then when the market bounced back, AAPL was a rocket ship leading the way.
So if we do get a larger market pullback in the next few weeks|months, and if AAPL follows the market down, and if there are no internal reasons for AAPL to fall (i.e. sales are still strong, new products in the pipeline), that could be an ideal time to load up more stock. As long as Apple is firing on all cylinders, they are a good stock to own. If investors get scared, buy more. I'm no investment professional, so my opinion is as good as yours, but this has been my observation in recent years.
Uhh, that would be Microsoft Office...without that, the Mac would be toast...even for home use.
Interestingly enough, the most installed app on Windoz computers is iTunes. Go figure?
What I do suspect may happen is that iWorks on the iPad might actually break the world's addiction to the tasty MS Office suite... just sayin' that could be how the end of the world would come to Redmond WA.
Not any more. I used to need Office, but I got rid of it and haven't needed to use it for years now even though I daily use .doc and .xls files and I email them to others without any issues. With NeoOffice and OpenOffice and iWork available, there are very, very few people who need Office any more. For the vast majority, you can get a cheap or free alternative that works just fine.
And with $10 iWork apps coming for the iPad, this trend will continue.
This guy must be wrong. Anyone who has been following these boards KNOWS that the iPad / iTampon will be an utter failure, since that's what most of the posts say, and everyone who posts here in MacRumors is a GENIUS.
That said, time to buy some
stock!
That said, time to buy some
stock!
Put your money where your mouth is!
About the stock price... well, I wouldn't put my money in it. I have in the past and the very last time I sold it around Christmas. This whole media and press hype is just too much to filter. The current share price is just too high to take a risk. 233 might not be a historic high, but certainly the highest that I can remember. Add the sub-80 that AAPL reached not long ago, and you might find an bubble forming. What goes up, can come down. But whoever disagrees, might post some evidence that they put their money where their mouth is. Any evidence of actual purchase of stock will do.
About the stock price... well, I wouldn't put my money in it. I have in the past and the very last time I sold it around Christmas. This whole media and press hype is just too much to filter. The current share price is just too high to take a risk. 233 might not be a historic high, but certainly the highest that I can remember. Add the sub-80 that AAPL reached not long ago, and you might find an bubble forming. What goes up, can come down. But whoever disagrees, might post some evidence that they put their money where their mouth is. Any evidence of actual purchase of stock will do.
Star Trek LCARS interface would be sweet on it. The Killer app for Star Trek fans to view and hear your media, search, wiki.
I have a feeling this demand is going to push back the Canadian launch. Supposedly it's late April yet no price or hard date has been set and it's only 1 month away. I can see an iPod mini supply shortage happening where the Canadian launch was pushed back. I hope I'm wrong.
Welcome to the Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field. Be sure to wear your tin foil hat at all times, anti-gravity boots are highly recommended, and don't forget the Koolaid.
I'm suited up and "going in" for my iPad on Saturday. I'll be the guy in the coyote urine scented hunting jacket. I've found it keeps me from being jostled in a crowd.
233 is right at the all-time high. Not hit during a bubble, but in a recovering, albiet slowly, economy. 233 was hit on rock solid fundamentals in an undervalued company if you look at PE.
Sub-80 was hit in a massively crashing market. Mainly because AAPL trades at a much higher beta than the market as a whole. This is also the reason for the fast rebound to 200+, which AAPL was at before the economy tanked. This isn't a bubble guys. I'm not saying there isn't going to be a pullback of some sort, but the overall trend will be upward.
Please do your own research. Learn how to invest and don't listen to the idiots on this board, whether positive or negative. AAPL has 40+ billion in cash, no debt, great margins, and a product line that is as innovative as it is deep.
<-----Cost basis of 8.00/share. Not selling.
I agree... that "Killer App" mindset is SO 80s/90s, so "DOS", so "Windows 3.1" IMHO.
These guys don't get it that now it's mainly about CONTENT.
Try writing a 100,000 words novel and crunching those huge product and financial Excel sheets on the iPad and its touch "keyboard". When you can honestly tell me that you've enjoyed this experience, I know that something must be wrong with you.
The iPad is a pure viewing and consuming device. It was not designed for creation or (text) input.
I also doubt that a device that is coupled to a restricted and censored AppStore is going to be more than an initial niche success.
Google's Android platform might not be as shiny as the iPad's iPhone OS yet, but it is Open Source and has a completely unrestricted market place. Furthermore, everyone can build his own hardware around it. That mix of a consolidated software platform and unlimited hardware variations is what made the PC so successful -- and at the same time the total vendor lock-in made the Mac the niche platform that it still is today.
History is going to repeat itself here, only that this time the competition is not called Microsoft Windows, but Google Android and Google Chromium OS.
And eventually, the open platform is always going to win. And that's something that Steve Jobs still doesn't get. In a few years from now, he'll do the same whining again how everybody in the industry stole "his" ideas. And as we all know, Apple had stolen most of its ah-so innovative ideas from others (e.g. GUI, Mouse, touch screens, now even the whole iPad concept), they were just great at catching all the hype.
I blew my load on 125 shares back on Feb. 16th at $194. Now I have to wait for my Q2 bonus, otherwise, I'd be tempted, but probably just another 25 shares.
The hype is overwhelming. But I'm still seeing much more hype than substance... There is no way 6 million will be sold in a year. No way will 10 million be produced.
Also, my totally amateur opinion is that anyone with Apple stock (and any sort of inclination to sell soon) should do it just prior to the iPad launch date. I imagine that's the best time, to avoid any of the 'disappointment' of the launch substance or numbers.
With this much hype, it's impossible for it to live up to it all, after all.
Also, my totally amateur opinion is that anyone with Apple stock (and any sort of inclination to sell soon) should do it just prior to the iPad launch date. I imagine that's the best time, to avoid any of the 'disappointment' of the launch substance or numbers.
With this much hype, it's impossible for it to live up to it all, after all.
Try writing a 100,000 words novel and crunching those huge product and financial Excel sheets on the iPad and its touch "keyboard". When you can honestly tell me that you've enjoyed this experience, I know that something must be wrong with you.
The iPad is a pure viewing and consuming device. It was not designed for creation or (text) input.
That's exactly what I intend to do with my iPad: Work on a novel that is beyond 100,000 words already, and work on my sports league's spreadsheets that contain a lot of data. I'll let you know how it works out. I think it will be just fine.
The iPad is a new type of computer device that is meant for all types of uses, for that's the way computers work. If you want to limit your usage to viewing and consuming, that makes you a viewer and a consumer. I'm a creator, so I will use it to create. It's your choice.
The open model is a great one, but it's not the one that history shows wins the big market share. That was Windows in the past, and it is hardly an open model. So while Google is doing some interesting open source things, we don't yet know if they will succeed the way Windows succeeded. That's two different types of models, not the same. And remember, Microsoft succeed through illegal anti-competitive measures that made it very hard to buy a PC without their products on it. Google does not have that advantage today. They have to compete on a level playing field, something Microsoft did not have to do in the past when they were able to buy their own field and dominate it.
I think the iPad will be a lot more successful than you expect. But we'll see.
E-book readers sell no where near 1 million a year. They would be lucky to make 300k for the Kindle or a Sony or a Nook each in a year. Kindle may have sold a few more. If the iPad sells over 2 million that should be a sure sign that it is not an e-book reader but it does have the ability to read books. I believe it will sell 2 million in 2010. If it sells 5 million then it would have exceeded my expectations. I don't know how many netbooks are sold in a year but I find them very slow and not worth the money for surfing the net and picking up mail. I'm waiting till I touch and play with an iPad before I buy one but it's just a matter of time.
