Analyst Predictions for 2010 iPhone: 70% Chance of Verizon, Battery Improvements, RFID

[Psychmike]

100% chance of being 50% right

What information allows these analysts to claim 70% certainty?? When good SCIENTISTS talk about probability, they're not pulling numbers out of their butts. They are talking about distributions based on the central limit theorem.

If you play a legit lottery, the chances of you winning are based on either the statistical probability of your numbers coming up or the number of other people who are drawing against you. You wouldn't give $10 to some guy on the street who says you have a 70% chance of winning $1,000 based on nothing. No one should take these analysts' predictions seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. The latest apple tablet rumors say that the screen will be 7", 9", 10.5", 12", or 13". I think it's fair to say that they've covered their bases.

 

[miketcool]

That's a lot of dual mode phones. (I think one reason the Droids aren't, is because Verizon unlocks the GSM side upon request, and a lot would probably end up on ATT.)

They might end up outside, or defeat Verizon's chance to charge you fees for traveling. I doubt any number would end up at AT&T. I brought my own phone (Nokia N82) back in the day to AT&T for a contract-less, free trial. Network was shoddy, calls dropped, data was TERRIBLE. They claimed GSM was high speed and acceptable. Customer service was like pleading with the mafia.

If AT&T loses the iPhone, I expect them to become Cingular all over again looking for someone to rescue them from drowning.

 

[ThunderSkunk]

My predictions for 2010:

70% more speculator disappointment, no verizon, no ichat on the iphone, and I'll buy a new iphone but stick with my 2G anyway, on account of its durable enclosure and long-lasting battery.

 

[J12300]

T-Mobile & AT&T = many dropped calls

Verizon = Sign me up for an iPhone

Just switched back to Verizon from the last 2 years between Tmobile & At&t...always dropping calls...hate them both!!!

 

[macridah]

maybe a good stock play to buy at&t puts and verizon calls ...

but these mention features are pretty cool, but the next iphone needs a "one more thing" to keep, increase market share.

 

[satcomer]

Please Apple, please go with T-Mobile! Please!

Yes please!

 

[cg0def]

such a load of crap

how do analysts always manage to come up with such crap? Apple is already using the so called new battery technology and you can't really squeeze an elephant in a jar no matter how hard you try. I would really like my iPhone to have a week+ battery life but it simply isn't going to happen next year. Also there is no new revolutionary technology that has been announced so don't get your hopes up too much. If there is a new version of the iPhone ( and it is quite possible that Apple will skip this cycle ) then it would be just a refresh with only minor updates. New camera, slightly more efficient CPU and stuff like that. The big announcement is the iPad and not the iPhone.

 

[Maserati7200]

Please Apple, please go with T-Mobile! Please!

If the iPhone goes to T-Mobile either a) the iPhone will cost much more than $199 or b)You would have to get a really expensive plan to subsidize it.

 

[APPLEFAN8]

Only 70% chance, I need to decide on whether I want to wait for this possible new iphone or move to the palm pre come January?

I would just wait, the palm pre will be there say you get the palm pre and they have the iphone come out to verizon. Than your in a pickle lol

 

[beebler]

Apple could make a killing on VZW. They need to be careful not to make themselves too exclusive, they've made that mistake before.

Of course RFID payments. I think it's funny how so many are skeptical or against it. It's old news in Japan.

 

[CooKieMoNs7eR]

omg im so sick of this topic,so sick of it,iphone coming to verizon next yr,At&t wanna extend the exclusive agreement,mybe its gonna be on verizons 4G network in 2011,mybe mybe mybe this and that,they keep posting articles about it being possible and at the same time they say its not possible cuz verizon is cdma and att is gsm...bla bla bla...I really dont care anymore thats it.

 

[chatin]

Hate to say it but...

Droid is technically superior to iPhone. iPhone will not compete well on Verizon network unless reason for dropped calls is cleared up fast.

 

[bytethese]

What information allows these analysts to claim 70% certainty?? When good SCIENTISTS talk about probability, they're not pulling numbers out of their butts. They are talking about distributions based on the central limit theorem.

If you play a legit lottery, the chances of you winning are based on either the statistical probability of your numbers coming up or the number of other people who are drawing against you. You wouldn't give $10 to some guy on the street who says you have a 70% chance of winning $1,000 based on nothing. No one should take these analysts' predictions seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. The latest apple tablet rumors say that the screen will be 7", 9", 10.5", 12", or 13". I think it's fair to say that they've covered their bases.

You know, 68% of all statistics are made up on the spot...

Also on that note, Sex Panther, 60% of the time it works, every time.

 

[whatever]

The iPhone Will Not, I Repeat, Will Not Be On Verizon in 2010.

The iPhone will not be available on the Verizon network in 2010.

But what if the iPhone was on Verizon's network on initial rollout. Does anyone honestly believe that Verizon's network would have been able to handle the rapid increase of traffic. That was the problem.

The Droid has been out less than two months and it's already facing stiff competition by other smart phones from Verizon. Which is why it will never catch up to the iPhone.

And that's the bigger thing. Android, like Windows is just the OS. Where Apple does both the hardware and the software. So while Android phones compete with one another, the iPhone will continue to rise above them. Having one product to produce and market (such as the iPhone) is much easier than multiple Android phones. And like in the PC market the Android phones will be force to lower their prices to compete with one another. Meanwhile, the only iPhone that the iPhone needs to compete with is the iPhone.

 

[iphones4evry1]

What information allows these analysts to claim 70% certainty?? When good SCIENTISTS talk about probability, they're not pulling numbers out of their butts. They are talking about distributions based on the central limit theorem.

If you play a legit lottery, the chances of you winning are based on either the statistical probability of your numbers coming up or the number of other people who are drawing against you. You wouldn't give $10 to some guy on the street who says you have a 70% chance of winning $1,000 based on nothing. No one should take these analysts' predictions seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. The latest apple tablet rumors say that the screen will be 7", 9", 10.5", 12", or 13". I think it's fair to say that they've covered their bases.

I was wondering the same thing. I don't think Gene Munster learned anything in his math classes when he had a chance.

Suppose seven analysts told Gene the iPhone was coming to Verizon, but then an actual employee denied the claim. Then steve jobs said "no way in hell" and the CEO of verizon said "no way in hell." Now we have something called a weighted distribution. Gene Munster would know nothing about that.
And with only ten data points, we would certainly not have a Gaussian distribution.

Here's something cool to look at (where your iPhone cash goes): http://www.iphonealley.com/current/...=Feed:+iphonealley/news+(iPhone+Alley+-+News)

 

[peterdevries]

Please Apple, please go with T-Mobile! Please!

In Germany and here in The Netherlands the iPhone is being sold by T-Mobile, and I can assure you that you will eat that wish once your are one a two year contract (that's the minimum here) with them. I have never experienced such a dreadful carrier, and I have had them all here in The Netherlands.

What's especially difficult to stomach is that they advertise, no brag about their network quality, whereas the 3G reception in 3 of the three largest cities of the Netherlands where I work is practically non-existent.

The network quality is bound to be different in the US for T-Mobile, but the customer service, support etc. is bound to be equally dreadful.

Oh, and Gene Munster? All due respect to the guy but his accuracy has been off ever since I first read about him. I now only read his predictions for comic relief...

 

[Little Endian]

This guy does not understand the nature of mac battery improvements. The most impressive gains made in the macbook pro line came from making the batteries non-removable. That is, they took out the mechanisms that allowed you to take out the battery in order to make more room for battery. You can't do that in iPhone. The battery is already non-removable. I'm sure there will be incremental gains in battery life, because there always are. But I'd be really shocked if the battery life shoots up from ~1 day to ~2 days.

Could not agree more, its more like that the recent mac laptop improvements in battery life were due to incorporating iphone battery features. Notably no removable and shape formed lithium polymer cells. I can see battery life improving in an incremental 10-30% amount.

Anyhow the point is moot for me as I already get about 2-3 days battery life on my iphone, though an increase would be nice. I used to get 1 day only but then I realized it was because I was addicted to the damned thing and using it far to heavily for web access and for GPS. The more you use an iphone like a regular phone the more likely you are to see decent to good battery life.

RFID is nothing to fear as I have used it for the past year or so on both my CHASE and CITI cards here in the US. Never had any problems but I still fail to see the benefit as it saves a second or two at best compared to swiping.

 

[christian_k]

Re: Technical possibility of a CDMA+GSM iPhone.

With the exception of the Droids, many or even most of the smartphones added to Verizon's stable in the past year or so have been combination CDMA+GSM.

Samsung Saga,
HTC Touch Pro 2,
HTC Imagio,
HTC Ozone,
RIM Storm,
RIM Tour, and the older
RIM 8830.

That's a lot of dual mode phones. (I think one reason the Droids aren't, is because Verizon unlocks the GSM side upon request, and a lot would probably end up on ATT.)

As far as I know there no CDMA+GSM+UMTS(HSDPA) phones yet.

An iPhone that is limited to GSM/EDGE (like the 1st gen iPhone) everywhere in Europe and on AT&T /T-Mo in the US would be hard to sell in 2010. The smartphones you mentioned are also sold in Euro, but in different versions that support GSM and UMTS/HSDPA, but not CDMA.

But there would be real benefits of a true "all-in-one" device.

UMTS support would also be a plus for US-Verizon customers when roaming globaly and would give them fredom of choice once the contract is over.

International customers from countries with GSM/UMTS could use the Verizon network for roaming when they visit the US.

Finally, LTE will be the next step in both the GSM/UMTS and the CDMA worlds. So both systems will converge anyway.

Christian

 

[scottness]

I don't think it'll happen.

 

[cleric]

Did everyone forget that tmobiles 3g is on a different frequency? Some hardware work would have to be done which makes it probably about as likely as any other carrier. They could release an iphone that only works on EDGE (2G) but I can't see them doing that. It's probably going to all the carriers or staying on ATT.

 

[alphaod]

I'd rather they just use the new Qualcomm chipsets and allow us to choose whatever network we want.

 

[pmjoe]

Until somebody analyzes these so-called "analysts" and tells me how accurate they are, I'll be ignoring these articles. I can make up predictions too.

 

[JoJoCal19]

As far as I know there no CDMA+GSM+UMTS(HSDPA) phones yet.

An iPhone that is limited to GSM/EDGE (like the 1st gen iPhone) everywhere in Europe and on AT&T /T-Mo in the US would be hard to sell in 2010. The smartphones you mentioned are also sold in Euro, but in different versions that support GSM and UMTS/HSDPA, but not CDMA.

But there would be real benefits of a true "all-in-one" device.

UMTS support would also be a plus for US-Verizon customers when roaming globaly and would give them fredom of choice once the contract is over.

International customers from countries with GSM/UMTS could use the Verizon network for roaming when they visit the US.

Finally, LTE will be the next step in both the GSM/UMTS and the CDMA worlds. So both systems will converge anyway.

Christian

Well actually the Verizon phones with CDMA/GSM do have GSM 3G bands but they left off the one that ATT uses (1900?). They have the 3G bands for overseas. The reason they did that is obviously to keep people from using 3G on ATT in the US.

But yea I cannot wait until Verizon/ATT/T-Mo go to LTE. Competition will be greatly increased and we will be able to switch carriers easily.

 

[jjack50]

As far as I know there no CDMA+GSM+UMTS(HSDPA) phones yet.

An iPhone that is limited to GSM/EDGE (like the 1st gen iPhone) everywhere in Europe and on AT&T /T-Mo in the US would be hard to sell in 2010. The smartphones you mentioned are also sold in Euro, but in different versions that support GSM and UMTS/HSDPA, but not CDMA.

But there would be real benefits of a true "all-in-one" device.

UMTS support would also be a plus for US-Verizon customers when roaming globaly and would give them fredom of choice once the contract is over.

International customers from countries with GSM/UMTS could use the Verizon network for roaming when they visit the US.

Finally, LTE will be the next step in both the GSM/UMTS and the CDMA worlds. So both systems will converge anyway.

Christian

Verizon's versions of the Blackberry Storm, Storm2, and Tour all are multi-band phones that cover GSM and UMTS/HSDPA and CDMA. They have radios for the North American GSM bands and have 3g available in UMTS/HSPDA and CDMA. They also work in Korea and Japan as well as almost all of the rest of the world. So such a multi-band phone is certainly possible now. Add in LTE and you'd have a killer world phone in terms of available coverage.

 

[DeepIn2U]

Wasn't there some talk about a combined GSM/CDMA receiver ? Add an LTE receiver to that and you're golden. A true worldphone compatible with all current standards. = Win.

People who think that there will be usable LTE coverage in 2011 are misleading themselves. It'll take YEARS before we have full LTE coverage. We don't even have 100% 3G coverage yet.. (be it CDMA or GSM..). They can't (or don't want to) offer adequate 3G coverage yet.
LTE in the largest markets does not mean sufficient LTE coverage to leave out CDMA.

Usable vs Full LTE coverage to NOT equal the same thing. Also you need to think outside of the USA. I BELIEVE Verizon will have about the same initial LTE coverage the 2nd QTR of 2011 as T-Mobile USA had with their AWS-3G footprint which is Usable (if launched in highly populated markets: NYC, L.A., Miami, etc etc).

Now Vodafone, Orange, and possibly O2 in Europe, Telus & Bell Mobilities (they share their networks even the new HSPA+) in Canada, and don't forget China, and possibly Japan will most likely be building their networks or launching end of 2010.

Will LTE chipset be in the 2010 iPhone? Most likely not, due to only 6mths of ANY network capable of using it at end of production life. Summer 2011 seems more likely.

Seems like the "analysts" have just been reading many of the iPhone forums here and other forums sites and just rehashing what we've all researched and talked about. I doubt ANY real research has been done other than just contacting feasible company's books/ceo's after reading leads found in these such forums.

Verizon's versions of the Blackberry Storm, Storm2, and Tour all are multi-band phones that cover GSM and UMTS/HSDPA and CDMA. They have radios for the North American GSM bands and have 3g available in UMTS/HSPDA and CDMA. They also work in Korea and Japan as well as almost all of the rest of the world. So such a multi-band phone is certainly possible now. Add in LTE and you'd have a killer world phone in terms of available coverage.

Storm 1 & Tour does NOT have HSDPA/UMTS bands that cover North/South America! You cannot use this as a general statement in the same sentence that covers quad-band GSM. UPDATE: Storm2 ALSO doesn't have a usable UMTS/HSDPA band for North America as well: 2100 MHz UMTS/HSPA networks. http://na.blackberry.com/eng/devices/blackberrystorm/storm_specifications.jsp Also the 9550 has BTv2.1+EDR, while the 9530 has BTv2.0 (no EDR).