Analyst Suggests 'Tablet Cannibalization' Responsible for Shrinking U.S. Notebook Retail Sales

Isn't it amazing what some glass, aluminum, an apple logo, and good advertisements can do for the most useless and niche product ever? The iphone is best at its job, the macbook is best at its job, but the ipad is best at nothing.
 
There's way more to this "notebook decline" than just the iPad. The numbers just don't add up. Think about it:

Apple has sold roughly 3million iPads since March. If iPads are outselling notebooks, then I'm to believe that less than 3 million notebooks from ALL VENDORS have been sold since March (last 6+ months). No way, Jose.

The article also talks about "unit growth". Sure, it's easy for a brand new product to "grow" by leaps and bounds it's first 6 months...because selling 100 units in Month 1 and 500 in Month 2 is pretty darn easy to do. Now compare that to the notebook industry that has been around for 20+ years and extremely popular for the past 5 years (instead of people buying desktops) and you're still comparing a product line that is 6 months old (iPad) to a product line that has already saturated the market for at least 5 years (notebooks).

I'm sure the iPad is doing well...but charts can be really misunderstood if you don't think more about the bigger picture. Lots and lots and lots of people own a notebook...hence the vendors have smaller amounts of people to sell (and hence grow) new units. iPads are brand new...unless they suck big time, they will continue to "grow" for a few years when the market (like iPods) become flooded with iPads and/or tablets.

-Eric
 
Brinkman said:
To me, netbooks and tablets are worthless. I have no need for this middle area between a laptop and a smart phone. It's too small or it's hardware is too crippled.

I can see how parents and old people might dig a simple setup like the iPad. But really, cannibalizing the market? ppfft
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After I purchased my iPad, this became how I feel about laptops. A laptop's hardware is too limited (poor ergonomics, small display, not enough RAM, etc) for my real work. But it is too bulky and power hungry to be useful for less computationally intensive work (like reading journal articles, light terminal work, writing article drafts, etc).

As my MBP is used less and less and as iOS evolves, I can definitely see the possibility that I'll never purchase another.

crackpip
 
sushi said:
I would suggest that there are millions (of owners) who disagree with this statement.
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I got it, the iPad is succesful and millions love it. But your statement kind of proves my point: The ipad is considered good because it is a "cool" product, meaning it is popular and sexy.

I almost never hear good reasons why it is better suited for general use than an iphone or macbook except for niche uses, and for the excessive price it simply is not worth it to me. I have used my grandfathers extensively, and I was vastly unimpressed. It is an unwieldy form factor to hold and type with, whereas the iphone is easy to use for almost all hand sizes (though I must admit for the elderly the iPad has an advantage here), and the ipad can't do more than what the iphone can. This would be fine for me as I just use an internet browser when I am not designing something, but the ipad is just so unwieldy to transport for what it is. The iPhone can fit in a pocket, but the iPad requires a carrying case/purse. So, when I want a light-computing system, I have an option to either bring one that can fit in my pocket or one that requires a bag. The better option is obvious to me. Besides, if I must use a bag to carry my device I don't really see why I wouldn't just bring my 13 inch just in case I need Photoshop or an auto cad program on-the-go.
 
an old folk

As an "old folk", these new touch screen devices are a long way from replacing the programs I use most (Apple Logic, dedicated word processor, etc.). They seem great for accessing things comfortably from the couch, but "the cloud" isn't quite ready for Logic (MIDI), for instance, though it would be nice to jam at long distance. Further, at least with apple, seems you can't play around with programing on their new devices without forking out $99 to get development projects to work on it with Xcode, in my case an ipod touch: One of the things we used to like about personal computers is the ability to play around with code (programming) for personal use, but it's almost like one's leasing the machine if one wants to play around with programing just for one's self.
 
I find it very surprising that ipad is hurting the notebook sales. Just because I don't know how these people will make use of the ipad, I'm assuming that most people who buy laptops are students, but obviously your limited to what applications can and cannot run on the ipad, also no real keyboard could pose an issue for people who type for long periods, no "Real" multi-tasking..

Not that I'm saying I don't like the ipad, but I don't understand how the people buying these ipads will make use of them :p
 
robotmonkey said:
I got it, the iPad is succesful and millions love it. But your statement kind of proves my point: The ipad is considered good because it is a "cool" product, meaning it is popular and sexy.

I almost never hear good reasons why it is better suited for general use than an iphone or macbook except for niche uses, and for the excessive price it simply is not worth it to me. I have used my grandfathers extensively, and I was vastly unimpressed.
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Are you writing this from study hall? Don't you have some Algebra 1 homework to do? Yeah, we "elderly" really care about being "cool". Vastly unimpressed about your perception of consumer electronics and life so far. Get back to us on your analysis of general use versus niche use--should be interesting.
 
Hopefully sooner rather than later but, yes. What we've come to expect from the normal clamshell laptop will eventually be yesterday's news. We'll expect big things from Apple for their iPad and, eventually, I'm guessing we'll see "slider" tablets with sliding keyboards. Basically, all the phones you see out now will just get exponentially larger, faster, more storage, etc.
 
ericinboston said:
There's way more to this "notebook decline" than just the iPad. The numbers just don't add up. Think about it:

Apple has sold roughly 3million iPads since March. If iPads are outselling notebooks, then I'm to believe that less than 3 million notebooks from ALL VENDORS have been sold since March (last 6+ months). No way, Jose.

-Eric
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There's been more than 3 million iPad sold since March. (I think it took 80 days to get to the 3 million mark). Production is increasing to 2.5 million per month ramping 3 Million for holiday season. iSuppli expect 12+ million this year (global, not US).

regardless, the up to 50% comment made by the CEO of Best Buy, refers to Best Buy alone (mostly U.S. home consumer market) ...
there's alot of notebooks sold elsewhere in the world, and also alot of notebooks sold to large businesses.

the NPD/Morgan Stanley data, "U.S. retail notebook unit growth fell 4% year over year ... " does, however, suggests the home consumer opting for iPad instead of netbooks/notebooks.


P.
 
farmboy said:
Are you writing this from study hall? Don't you have some Algebra 1 homework to do? Yeah, we "elderly" really care about being "cool". Vastly unimpressed about your perception of consumer electronics and life so far. Get back to us on your analysis of general use versus niche use--should be interesting.
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Uh I am actually a law student and taking some architecture for fun but thanks for your concern I guess....

I don't think the elderly care about it being "cool" and I never said that so thanks for putting words in my mouth. All I meant was that most people that I know above the age of about 65 find the keyboard of the iphone hard to use and the screen too small, so the ipad has the advantage there. The ipad is niche because it is not best at typing and it is not the best at light computing. It is a compromise in every aspect.

I don't know why so many people are acting like children and getting emotional because I am giving an honest opinion backed by reaction from usage and sound reasoning.
 
My mother currently has a netbook but would love to have an iPad simply because it would be easier to use. I agree that iPad's are great for older people who don't do much other than some casual web surfing, emails, YouTube, and viewing pictures. Doesn't get much simpler than that. I, myself, would love to have an iPad but cannot justify the cost because I already have a MBP that does everything I need it to do. That and I also have an Android phone. An iPad kind of sits in between both of those but with a $500 price tag it's not easily justifiable.
 
Laptops are a pain in the ass to lug around. With my iPad 3G it does everything i need. (email,etradepro,surf the internet,media and music, and news etc..)

It is liberating not to lug around a laptop when you can carry with you such a compact and lightweight device.
 
I'm having trouble believing all his claims given that his graph only goes back one year. I'd like to see the trend in growth over previous years to make sure that August isn't a typical lull in the notebook growth cycle.
 
i'm stuck because we want to get my grandfather an iPad for christmas but i KNOW in january or soon after they will come out with a front facing camera one and he would love that. I just wish they would release it before christmas!
 
tekmoe said:
My mother currently has a netbook but would love to have an iPad simply because it would be easier to use. I agree that iPad's are great for older people who don't do much other than some casual web surfing, emails, YouTube, and viewing pictures. Doesn't get much simpler than that. I, myself, would love to have an iPad but cannot justify the cost because I already have a MBP that does everything I need it to do. That and I also have an Android phone. An iPad kind of sits in between both of those but with a $500 price tag it's not easily justifiable.
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Like I have said, the iphone does all of that but in a quicker and easier way than the ipad because you can actually type quickly on the keyboard, and it costs way too much.

tjanuranus said:
i'm stuck because we want to get my grandfather an iPad for christmas but i KNOW in january or soon after they will come out with a front facing camera one and he would love that. I just wish they would release it before christmas!
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They may, I suggest you wait till at least November.

hugodrax said:
Laptops are a pain in the ass to lug around. With my iPad 3G it does everything i need. (email,etradepro,surf the internet,media and music, and news etc..)

It is liberating not to lug around a laptop when you can carry with you such a compact and lightweight device.
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And it is liberating not to lug around an iPad when you can carry such a compact and lightweight device (iphone) in your pocket. Oh, and it doubles as a phone.
 
"Cannibalizing" should only apply when iPads negate the sale of MacBooks and MacBook Pros. When people choose iPads over other netbooks or laptop PC's the correct term is "beating" them. If you want to sound like a pretentious financial ass, you can say the iPad is "eating their lunch."

Cannibalism is eating your own kind. Taking market share from competitors is called winning in the free market.
 
I bought an iPad instead of buying a laptop back in April. HOWEVER, I generally think this is a bad thing. We shouldn't want the iPad to outsell every other computer because the iPad is generally a step backwards in the world of computing. I like it, but that doesn't mean I want it to be the standard in computing, which I think Apple and other companies will try to mimic in the future if it succeeds and that would be a bad thing.
 
Umm... yes, cannibalizing the market!

Unlike you, a whole LOT of people out there were buying laptops ONLY to check their email and surf the net while on the go! Add to that, the number of folks who bought one to serve double-duty as a portable movie/video player (gives the kids something to watch in the car and so forth), and you quickly see where a tablet like the iPad serves those purposes just as well, with a smaller device with better battery life.

When those types make up roughly 50% of the total sales of portables? Yep, converting them to iPads and the like amounts to cannibalizing the market!

I'm a hard-core I.T. guy and "power user" - but that doesn't mean I believe people like myself constitute the majority of sales! Everyone owns a computer these days!


Brinkman said:
To me, netbooks and tablets are worthless. I have no need for this middle area between a laptop and a smart phone. It's too small or it's hardware is too crippled.

I can see how parents and old people might dig a simple setup like the iPad. But really, cannibalizing the market? ppfft
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Could Be Smartphones

More and more folks are using their iPhones and Droids as their primary computer. I think that the phones ($199 and up) with their $360/year data plans (and multiple phones and plans for multiple family members) are the main reason for the shrinking notebook sales. The iPad ($499 and up) is just adds to this.
 
ThePowerOfTheMac said:
Why... piggy... why? (lol invader zim reference)

Ok, the laptop isn't dead. The laptop never will be. The business is still going strong. But really? I would buy a laptop over an iPad any day.
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Yeah but a lot of people would prefer to buy a much more powerful desktop plus an ipad than just a laptop by itself. Both setups cost about the same but with the desktop+ipad combo you get devices that work better for specific tasks than a laptop would. The laptop is good at many things but a desktop is obviously better at everything else other than portability. And of course an ipad is more portable, longer battery life, quicker and easier to use, etc. but not able to run traditional Mac OS X only apps which you would only run on your desktop.

As long as you don't absolutely have to have the
ability to run programs like Adobe CS5 and Handbrake away from your desk, then an iMac+iPad combo can make more sense than a Macbook Pro.

I found that I usually use the portability of my Macbook Pro on the couch just surfing the web, checking emails, facebook, etc. When I needed to do real work I would take my laptop to my desk and hook it up to my big screen monitor so that I could be more productive and that is where it stays most of the time anyway. That realization made me see the light as far as to where a desktop and Ipad fits in.
 
h1r0ll3r said:
Ahh, the netbook fad is finally going away. These are pretty useful for traveling or as a tertiary laptop but don't see any real benefit to these at all. Think they're more of a nice-to-have then anything else. If the market gets manufacturers desperate enough and drop prices to $99, then I might get one....maybe.
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The article actually talks about notebooks not the netbooks. If anything, it's possible that notebook sales are cannibalized by netbooks and not the iPad. Netbooks are much better replacements for notebooks than iPad is.
 
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