Analyst Suggests 'Tablet Cannibalization' Responsible for Shrinking U.S. Notebook Retail Sales

[kingtj]

Hehe ..... I'd dispute this, actually.

I know what you're saying here, but I'm in the same situation, where an iPad fell between my Macbook Pro and my Android smartphone... yet, I took a chance and bought an iPad 3G anyway.

How did that turn out?

Well, the Android, by comparison, is miserable to use. I hate the small screen on it and the touch-screen is nowhere near as responsive or accurate as my old iPhone used to be. (Among other hassles, every time I press a key on its virtual keyboard, it wants to select the letter to the left of what I press. Even typing out a quick text message is infuriating.) Granted, it's one of the new Sanyo Zio phones, so a lower-cost Android. But still, the screen is 3.5" -- which is a common size for these phones, and the Zio got pretty good reviews compared to some of the Android-based stuff on the market!

The only advantage it really offers me is the fact it's in my pocket everywhere I go. It alerts me right away if I get new email from Gmail and reading the mail isn't too bad. I usually defer replying to later, though.

I find myself using the iPad for 80% of what I used to lug my Macbook Pro around for. Unlike the Macbook Pro, I don't need to carry the wall charger with me, because I know the iPad battery will last me all day, as long as I charged it up recently.

The Macbook Pro winds up most useful when I need to edit/update a web site for someone. That's still a place where tools are completely lacking on an iPad, and I'm not sure I'd *want* to try it even if I could -- because the iPad screen isn't quite large enough to render pages the way people see them on higher-resolution screens. (Even if you were fine editing a page created with the 1024x768 resolution of the iPad, you have to remember the iPad leaves no extra pixels for toolbars and such. So everything would have to display over the top of what you were trying to work on, or do some annoying thing with scrolling part of it out of the way and back as you selected options.)

The iPad, on the other hand, gets used in places I never bothered with my Macbook Pro at all -- like for reading an e-book in bed at night. (And I tried reading one with the smartphone before. Even on my old iPhone, that wasn't a real pleasant experience.)

My mother currently has a netbook but would love to have an iPad simply because it would be easier to use. I agree that iPad's are great for older people who don't do much other than some casual web surfing, emails, YouTube, and viewing pictures. Doesn't get much simpler than that. I, myself, would love to have an iPad but cannot justify the cost because I already have a MBP that does everything I need it to do. That and I also have an Android phone. An iPad kind of sits in between both of those but with a $500 price tag it's not easily justifiable.

 

[robotmonkey]

More and more folks are using their iPhones and Droids as their primary computer. I think that the phones ($199 and up) with their $360/year data plans (and multiple phones and plans for multiple family members) are the main reason for the shrinking notebook sales. The iPad ($499 and up) is just adds to this.

Now that is a statement that makes sense. I would like to see the statistics of droid/iphone sales vs laptop sales.

My iphone does everything I could ever want on-the-go, whether that be email, web, music, phone, or even acting as a motion tracking star map for when I go stargazing. If I had an ipad, I would have to carry it in a man-purse, I couldn't just whip it out anywhere since it is a rather large product, I would need to carry a separate device for phone and music (Though I guess you could be unique and carry around an ipad for listening to music and use skype or a similar app in-place of a phone though you would look rather silly ), and I wouldn't be able to comfortably play games and have such an ingenious star map since the screen/overall size is too large to easily manipulate. (I know there is an impressive commercial with a star map for the ipad but think about it; you are in a desert or a mountain somewhere in the wee hours of the morning just to get the best glimpse through your telescope and you have no place to put your ipad since it is so large but your iphone can just go back in your pocket.

 

[gnasher729]

The graph misses Jan to Jun 2009. So you cannot really compare the numbers. Also notebook sales were driven because most people changed from a normal PC to a notebook or netbook. It's pretty much clear that the market is saturated at one point.

Just have a look at the iPhone. The sales numbers now stagnate for almost a year (actually the iPhone loses marketshare currently) because everone who wanted one now has one.

You mean "everybody who wants a Netbook has one"?

 

[crackpip]

The ipad is niche because it is not best at typing and it is not the best at light computing. It is a compromise in every aspect.

I don't know why so many people are acting like children and getting emotional because I am giving an honest opinion backed by reaction from usage and sound reasoning.

Desktops, laptops, netbooks, iPads, and iPhones all entail compromises (e.g. portability vs. screen size, computational resources vs. convenience). Is it really so difficult to understand that someone else may view the compromises differently than you? Your opinion is based on your usage.

For most of the work that I do outside of my office, an iPad is just as useful as my MBP and usually more convenient. I did not find doing work on my iPhone to be as convenient, so I got rid of it when I got my iPad.

crackpip

 

[G5isAlive]

I don't know why so many people are acting like children and getting emotional because I am giving an honest opinion backed by reaction from usage and sound reasoning.

An opinion is one thing, but making broad sweeping statements is another. That the iPad is not for you, no problemo, but to say those of us who like ours because a) it's cool, or b) we are older than 65 and can't handle the iphone keypad (and you have said both) seems shallow.

For me the iPad excels at light use, reading email, replying to macrumors, browsing, catching up on the news, the occaisional book or movie... I carry mine around without a bag almost everywhere i go where i might be doing any of the above. I prefer a screen size larger than the iPhone, and want something lighter, cooler, more battery than my MacBook pro.

To me its worth the money. But i don't presume to tell everyone else what they should use or what they are using is no good.

 

[firewood]

I almost never hear good reasons why it is better suited for general use than an iphone or macbook ...

An iPad is clearly better suited for general use for anybody for whom an iPhone is way too small (people who need reading glasses and buy large print books), and a MacBook is way too complicated, expensive, overpowered, with poor ergonometrics to boot, for their basic needs (web, email, media, ebooks, etc.). That's a large portion of a rapidly growing demographic: retirement age people with money. Also the majority of mobile business employees who consume data, presentations and web services rather than create content.

 

[lilo777]

This article has one major flaw. In fact', I'd say that the "analyst" is either stupid or she is lying. What's the point in providing relative sale growth data for notebooks without giving absolute sale volumes. Let's see if Apple sold iPad, say, 4 million iPads and at the same time notbook sales dropped by 15%. What does it mean? Nothing. What if 15% of notebook sales equals 40 million notebooks? Could 4 million iPads cannibalize 40 million notebooks? Obviously not (unless they are veru hungry )

 

[mrfoof82]

To me, netbooks and tablets are worthless. I have no need for this middle area between a laptop and a smart phone. It's too small or it's hardware is too crippled.

I can see how parents and old people might dig a simple setup like the iPad. But really, cannibalizing the market? ppfft

The iPad is the computer that sits on your coffee table on standby. For up to a month between charges. For when you're watching TV, or just thought about something, and want to take care of it in that 5-minute timespan.

It is not, and was never intended to be, a workhorse computer. It's the "casual computer".

Not everyone has laptops as their primary computer. I don't, as the displays are too small, I don't need the portability (I'm not talking desk-to-couch ... I'm talking outside the home), and I don't want to pay the markup for more power-efficient components. Actually, 45-50% of the market don't. With the iPad, we may see people reverting back to AIOs and inexpensive desktops for workhorse usage, and tablets for casual computing.

 

[gathart]

I hardly see how I am the troll considering that I am giving thought out, tested, and logical reasons why other apple products are better than the iPad and others simply say "it is cool and millions of people have it so it must be good". Windows is much more popular than OS X, but does that make it better?

Seriously, have you tried the iPad? I was sceptical about, but now i have it it's brilliant. For day-to-day stuff i use the iPad more serious stuff I use the macboo pro. Tryit, and you may like it....

 

[robotmonkey]

An opinion is one thing, but making broad sweeping statements is another. That the iPad is not for you, no problemo, but to say those of us who like ours because a) it's cool, or b) we are older than 65 and can't handle the iphone keypad (and you have said both) seems shallow.

For me the iPad excels at light use, reading email, replying to macrumors, browsing, catching up on the news, the occaisional book or movie... I carry mine around without a bag almost everywhere i go where i might be doing any of the above. I prefer a screen size larger than the iPhone, and want something lighter, cooler, more battery than my MacBook pro.

To me its worth the money. But i don't presume to tell everyone else what they should use or what they are using is no good.

My opinion is that other apple products are a better alternative to the ipad, if you don't agree then I don't really care. If you want to buy 10 ipads then go right ahead I don't care how you spend your money. I am just giving my personal opinion on why the iPad is not a good device, and the only way to back up your own personal opinion about a device is to detail why better devices for each purpose exists; I am not trying to say other people's devices are "no good". I made that statement because other people, one in particular, were attacking me for my opinion and resorted to name calling and emotional statements rather than sound reasons like you did. Still, I can't agree with your opinion and think the iphone is better suited for all of the tasks you mentioned but I am not trying to dictate how everyone else should think, I am explaining why I think the way I do.

 

[newagemac]

Good. Don't buy one.

To others, they're very useful. Slim, light, and big enough to use with more gusto than an itty bitty little iPhone. Provides anywhere anytime ability for some 80% of most computing use (mail, web, lightweight apps, lightweight content creation). Tethers nicely to a gutsy home base machine far more capable (multiple terabytes, multiple monitors, multiple input devices, etc.) than any notebook.

Notebooks are a compromise of power with portable. Tablets embrace their limits and applications, making a convenient extension from the desktop.

I was in the market for a notebook ... until I got an iPad and realized I didn't have to take the whole system everywhere, and am now gearing up for a much more capable desktop.

Naysayers keep thinking tablets & computers are an "exclusive-or" kind of thing, when they're really an "and" relationship. I can do more with a tablet and a desktop than you can with just a notebook.

My point EXACTLY! Rarely do I need the power of a desktop when I'm away from my desk because I rarely want to do stuff like design in Dreamweaver or Photoshop, edit in iMovie, or rip some DVDs unless I have some real power at my disposal with large dual screen monitors and without having to worry about battery life, a hot lap, and loud fans roaring. So for me, an iMac+iPad makes more sense than a Macbook Pro. A netbook was never a consideration at all as it makes no sense now.

 

[gathart]

I am amazed about the conservatism of some juvenile computor users....

''It's only for old people, it will not catch on, it's useless'' coming from teenagers and the like. I was sceptical but it works and you can do soo much with it. It so much easier to take it with you. And even with Logmein I am able to do serious vomputor stuff...

To use a phrase you might remember out of dr Seuss books: "Try it, you may like it"

Where is the yarn for the new in the youth today??

 

[robotmonkey]

Seriously, have you tried the iPad? I was sceptical about, but now i have it it's brilliant. For day-to-day stuff i use the iPad more serious stuff I use the macboo pro. Tryit, and you may like it....

Yeah my grandfather has one and I helped him learn how to use it. The only thing that really took me aback compared to the iphone was the maps application. Otherwise, I think owning one would leave me with an iphone that could not fit in my pocket, could not be as easily manipulated for games and on-the-go apps, and could not be used as a phone or an ipod.

I am not trying to argue that light-computing isn't a good idea, rather that the iphone is better suited for that task.

 

[manhattanboy]

For the same price as a netbook you can buy a 2 year old used laptop that's 3 times as fast with quality dedicated graphics or at least better integrated graphics. You won't get 8 hour battery life out of it, but if I need something with really long battery life to stay up to date with e-mails and such, I use my smartphone. And if I need to get actual work done, I work in my office, where power outlets abound.

You just made my case for why this whole iPad craze is crazy.

If you can do it easily on a phone, then its more convenient because you can fit it in your pocket.

If you are forced to take something else along, it might as well be a full laptop because smartphones functionally can do EVERYTHING that the iPad can do.
In the end, a smartphone with a light full-powered laptop like a MBA beats them all.

 

[MacNewsFix]

Frankly, I am not surprised. I have ditched my MBP and now use an iPad 60% of the time and a desktop 40% of the time. The desktop is used for those times when heavy lifting (ex. compression of video) is required.

As technology evolves, I can see a tablet even supplanting my need for a desktop. As internal parts shrink and become better at dissipating heat, tablets will become more powerful. You will be able to plug in multiple monitors should the need arise (or wirelessly through something akin to Apple's AirPlay), and, in the event that you could benefit from the most powerful architecture available, you'll be able to offload a workload to a remote server. Opera already is preprocessing web pages before handing them off to users of its tablet web browser.

 

[dwd3885]

Yeah my grandfather has one and I helped him learn how to use it. The only thing that really took me aback compared to the iphone was the maps application. Otherwise, I think owning one would leave me with an iphone that could not fit in my pocket, could not be as easily manipulated for games and on-the-go apps, and could not be used as a phone or an ipod.

I am not trying to argue that light-computing isn't a good idea, rather that the iphone is better suited for that task.

I use my EVO much more than my iPad, but when I'm sitting watching TV and want to browse some websites, I pick up the iPad.

 

[robotmonkey]

''It's only for old people, it will not catch on, it's useless'' coming from teenagers and the like. I was sceptical but it works and you can do soo much with it. It so much easier to take it with you. And even with Logmein I am able to do serious vomputor stuff...

Where is the yarn for the new int the youth today??

But the iphone does all of that in a package that doesn't require a man-purse and an extra device for a phone and maybe even another for a music player.

To me, the ipad vs the iphone is like the nintendo dsi vs dsi XL, one is just bigger which makes it harder to use in a day to day basis. I think that if the ipad was released first, the iphone would make it look unwieldy and obsolete.

 

[robotmonkey]

I use my EVO much more than my iPad, but when I'm sitting watching TV and want to browse some websites, I pick up the iPad.

I guess, but the screen responsiveness and UI of the iphone compared to the evo may make you think otherwise. And I guess I don't have money for an iphone, macbook, AND ipad.

 

[cmaier]

To me, netbooks and tablets are worthless. I have no need for this middle area between a laptop and a smart phone. It's too small or it's hardware is too crippled.

I can see how parents and old people might dig a simple setup like the iPad. But really, cannibalizing the market? ppfft

and lawyers and CPU designers and technology company CEOs and educators....

or is anyone over 24 an "old person?"

Of course, the iPad target market is probably those people who know the proper use of apostrophes.

 

[gathart]

Yeah my grandfather has one and I helped him learn how to use it. The only thing that really took me aback compared to the iphone was the maps application. Otherwise, I think owning one would leave me with an iphone that could not fit in my pocket, could not be as easily manipulated for games and on-the-go apps, and could not be used as a phone or an ipod.

I am not trying to argue that light-computing isn't a good idea, rather that the iphone is better suited for that task.

for some apps a small screen is fine, I prefer a bigger screen

 

[shartypants]

awesome, I love it! Out with the old, in with the new!

 

[alent1234]

i've been thinking to buy a new desktop and an ipad. people bought a lot of notebooks in the last decade but they never did much with them. they just didn't want to be locked to computing in one place in their home.

you can buy a dell/hp in the $700 and an ipad. the computer will be your master place to save data and the ipad has enough functionality to compute almost anywhere

 

[runner200]

cvs netbooks

Ahh, the netbook fad is finally going away. These are pretty useful for traveling or as a tertiary laptop but don't see any real benefit to these at all. Think they're more of a nice-to-have then anything else. If the market gets manufacturers desperate enough and drop prices to $99, then I might get one....maybe.

It seems that CVS is going to sell some form of notebook for $ 99. That is twice cheaper than the cheapest ipod touch. I don't think that many people are going to write their novel in one of those, but I am curious about what you can get for that price.

 

[robotmonkey]

and lawyers and CPU designers and technology company CEOs and educators....

or is anyone over 24 an "old person?"

Of course, the iPad target market is probably those people who know the proper use of apostrophes.

I can't speak for him, but when I have been using the word elderly I mean senior citizen 70 year old grandparents. Not trying to say the ipad is only for "old people", just that for my grandparents and my girlfriend's grandparents they find the small keys and spacing of the keyboard on the iphone hard to use and the text too small, so the ipad is an inherently better device for the elderly than an iphone.

 

[manhattanboy]

Yeah my grandfather has one and I helped him learn how to use it. The only thing that really took me aback compared to the iphone was the maps application. Otherwise, I think owning one would leave me with an iphone that could not fit in my pocket, could not be as easily manipulated for games and on-the-go apps, and could not be used as a phone or an ipod.

I am not trying to argue that light-computing isn't a good idea, rather that the iphone is better suited for that task.

My opinion is that other apple products are a better alternative to the ipad, if you don't agree then I don't really care. If you want to buy 10 ipads then go right ahead I don't care how you spend your money. I am just giving my personal opinion on why the iPad is not a good device, and the only way to back up your own personal opinion about a device is to detail why better devices for each purpose exists; I am not trying to say other people's devices are "no good". I made that statement because other people, one in particular, were attacking me for my opinion and resorted to name calling and emotional statements rather than sound reasons like you did. Still, I can't agree with your opinion and think the iphone is better suited for all of the tasks you mentioned but I am not trying to dictate how
everyone else should think, I am explaining why I think the way I do.

I agree with both of these statements. Since you brought up how good smartphones are, I feel that Froyo has made it even better. While not as slick as iOS, with Froyo I finally have full laptop style file management and don't need iTunes to act as a 3rd party translator. My phone has the power of an old G4 iBook and that's amazing because it fits into my shirt pocket.

Seriously, have you tried the iPad? I was sceptical about, but now i have it it's brilliant. For day-to-day stuff i use the iPad more serious stuff I use the macboo pro. Tryit, and you may like it....

It is nice and I understand why people who don't do a lot of computer things would like it. I use the full office, the full Adobe suite and I always like to work away from home. A more capable machine justs makes sense.

An iPad is clearly better suited for general use for anybody for whom an iPhone is way too small (people who need reading glasses and buy large print books), and a MacBook is way too complicated, expensive, overpowered, with poor ergonometrics to boot, for their basic needs

This is sadly true.
But wouldn't it be better if people actually knew how to do more?
Maybe we should not teach anybody any skills and just give them enough to be satisfied with their feeble existence.
Seriously? Stupidity is a form of slavery.