Analysts Bump iPhone Expectations for Apple's Holiday Quarter

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Apr 12, 2001
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Three-quarters of the way through Apple's holiday quarter, a slew of analysts have increased their calculations of the company's performance, while expecting record iPhone sales on the back of Apple's most successful iPhone launch ever.

Interestingly, Citi analyst Richard Gardner claims to have specifically heard that Apple just last week made a significant boost to its iPhone orders with suppliers, suggesting significant upside for the current quarter.
Our meetings in Taiwan suggest that Apple raised 4CQ11 iPhone orders to suppliers meaningfully just last week. The new iPhone build plan is meaningfully above the low-30's million figure that we were hearing previously. Given such a significant order increase at this late stage in the quarter, it seems clear that Apple is headed for a meaningful upside surprise on iPhone shipments this quarter.
Other analyst updates include:

- Maynard Um of UBS raised his estimate of iPhones sold on the quarter to 30 million from 28. Um noted that his team believes the 30 million number is still conservative, especially with an iPhone 4S launch in China pending.

- Shaw Wu of Stern Agee raised his iPhone expectations from 26 million to 28 million, though he believes those numbers could run even higher thanks to high demand from Asia.

- William Power of R.W. Baird raised his iPhone estimate to 31.2 million units.

- Mark Moskowitz of JP Morgan raised his iPhone estimates to 28 million units from 25.3 million.

- Mike Walkley of Canaccord Genuity raised his iPhone estimate to 30.5 million from 29 million units, saying "our November checks indicated strong global iPhone sales with Apple share gains versus Android smartphones in the US and Western Europe".

While the iPhone is expected to be a powerhouse this quarter, Power, Moskowitz and Walkley all cut expectations slightly on the iPad.

Apple CEO Tim Cook, on the most recent Apple earnings call in mid-October weighed in with his own expectations, saying his team was "very confident that we will set an all-time record in the December quarter for iPhone sales."

Article Link: Analysts Bump iPhone Expectations for Apple's Holiday Quarter
 

ForzaJuve

macrumors member
Jul 20, 2009
67
3
Raised my expectations

Based on the other analysts estimates I just raised my estimate to 30.49 million, can you add my name to that list if I tell you I am an analyst?
 

Ryth

macrumors 68000
Apr 21, 2011
1,589
155
Why do I always feel like it's still too late to buy? lol
It's not too late.

It's almost a guarantee that the stock is going to hit $500 at the minimum and probably $600 by 2013 if not sooner.

There is no company that is doing what Apple is doing and who has the growth potential that Apple has in all these markets.

If the TV rumors are true and those are parred with the iPhone 4S sales and upcoming iPad 3 and iPhone 5, you are pretty much looking at total market domination.

You cannot get this type of growth in any other company out there.
 

dgree03

macrumors 65816
Jan 8, 2009
1,177
0
Gotta play catchup to Samsung!

It still amazes me that apple can push 30 million. I would be more interested in knowing how much of that 30 millions are already iPhone customers, not that it matters to apples bottom line (a sale is a sale) but it would say alot about potential growth.
 

tylerk36

macrumors member
Feb 22, 2009
76
0
OK. So I predict that Apple will sell 200 million iPhone 5 prototypes in first quarter 2012. :D:eek::D:p
 

bandalay

macrumors regular
Apr 19, 2010
123
92
Canada
There's a good chance…

…we're being set up for a repeat of last quarters action. Push estimates into the stratosphere for one product and then attack the overall performance when it all doesn't fall in line.

A single sign of weakness (like say a flat or only slight growth in iPad sales) will be enough to promote a new balogna story about the collapse of Apple and down we'll go…and if Apple comes in under anyone's estimates on the iPhone then all hell will break loose.

The analyst tail continues to wag the market dog.
 

paul4339

macrumors 65816
Sep 14, 2009
1,404
664
I'd like to see the amateur estimates (Apple Finance Board forum) are for this quarter.

.
 

JHankwitz

macrumors 68000
Oct 31, 2005
1,907
58
Wisconsin
How could so many people fall for the iPhone "S" release cycle?! It is so sad...
I can't figure out what your comment means. How could it be sad that more and more people are equiping themselves with the best technology available on the planet? I purchased an iPhone 4 just a few months ago, and I'm far from sad about it. It's providing me with all I need.
 

dgree03

macrumors 65816
Jan 8, 2009
1,177
0
I can't figure out what your comment means. How could it be sad that more and more people are equiping themselves with the best APPLE technology available on the planet? I purchased an iPhone 4 just a few months ago, and I'm far from sad about it. It's providing me with all I need.
Fixed for you.
 

Xenomorph

macrumors 65816
Aug 6, 2008
1,309
553
St. Louis
How could so many people fall for the iPhone "S" release cycle?! It is so sad...
What does this even mean? Are you saying people should have only purchased an iPhone 3G and iPhone 4, and let the 3GS and 4S sit on shelves?

I skipped the 3G and got the 3GS. I skipped the 4 and got the 4S. I've been VERY happy with my purchases. Both were much better than their previous releases.
 

commander.data

macrumors 65816
Nov 10, 2006
1,014
104
Apple CEO Tim Cook, on the most recent Apple earnings call in mid-October weighed in with his own expectations, saying his team was "very confident that we will set an all-time record in the December quarter for iPhone sales."
The thing with Apple setting high expectations for a quarter, it just encourages analysts to release "guidance" expecting even more whether it's realistic or not.
 

gnasher729

macrumors P6
Nov 25, 2005
16,948
3,830
It's almost a guarantee that the stock is going to hit $500 at the minimum and probably $600 by 2013 if not sooner.
That's nonsense. If that was "almost a guarantee" then the stock price would be higher today.
 

brewser

macrumors regular
Oct 8, 2006
130
3
Man, I hate when they do this because if Apple doesn't sell that many then everyone is disappointed and the stock drops. I hate analysts!
 

alphaod

macrumors Core
Feb 9, 2008
22,172
1,216
NYC
The 4S makes a great gift for family and friends who live abroad.

How could so many people fall for the iPhone "S" release cycle?! It is so sad...
Fall for what? Maybe I broke my iPhone 4 and it's out of warranty, what do I do? I buy a 4S, not the 4. You're ignorance to the multitude of possibilities someone would buy the 4S is sad.
 

Small White Car

macrumors G4
Aug 29, 2006
10,906
1,186
Washington DC

lucasmonger

macrumors member
Aug 24, 2008
62
0
Illinois
It is too late....

It's not too late. Apple stock has gone up a lot over the last few years, but the size and scope of Apple grew even more than that. Much, much more.

Crazy as it seems, it's still a good buy.

Anyone who's actually interested should read this:

http://bullishcross.com/apple-the-most-undervalued-large-cap-stock-in-america/
It is too late to buy. The time to buy was at $13 per share (adjust to $6.50 because of the stock the split) in 2003 just as the iPod was starting to take off, sell at $200 in Dec 2007 after the iPhone hype, and buy back again at $87 in 2008-9 when the financial crisis hit the entire country. The gain from $6.50 to now (over 60X) is huge in comparison to buying now near 400 and hoping to sell at $500-600 (not even 2X).

Too bad the stock didn't tumble when Steve passed away... another missed buying opportunity.
 

*LTD*

macrumors G4
Feb 5, 2009
10,703
1
Canada
And keep in mind, Apple only sells at most, two models. And they aren't budget "smartphones" designed with low-end in mind.
 
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