Analysts See iPhone 4S Supply Constraints Throughout Holiday Quarter

[MacRumors]

Fortune summarizes a pair of analyst reports out today suggesting that Apple may be experiencing some supply constraints on the iPhone 4S during this holiday quarter. The company has obviously been working hard to demand for the device as shipping estimates through iPhone carrier partners and even Apple itself have at times been lengthy, but beyond high demand the new reports suggest that Apple may be having some trouble meeting its own production goals for the device.

The first report, from Rodman and Renshaw analyst Ashok Kumar, cites shortages of an unidentified "key component" for the iPhone 4S that is holding back production.

In a note entitled "Limited near-term upside for iPhone," Rodman & Renshaw's Ashok Kumar alerted clients that low yields on an unidentified "key component" is likely to constrain production of the iPhone 4S this quarter.

Including an estimated four million iPhone 4S units that were manufactured but not shipped in the prior quarter, Kumar says that Apple could sell 30 million iPhones this quarter, still a healthy number but leaving Apple without the ability to completely satisfy consumer demand.

The second note comes from Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro and similarly cites "supply constraints" as the reason behind his reduction in quarterly iPhone sales of about three million units, moving from 26-28 million units to 23-25 million units. He notes that demand appears to remain strong but that Apple is having a hard time producing enough iPhones to meet that demand.

Article Link: Analysts See iPhone 4S Supply Constraints Throughout Holiday Quarter

 

[Mad-B-One]

Good for the USA to be a primary market. Doubt they will constraint them too much.

 

[filmantopia]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 5_0_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/534.46 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.1 Mobile/9A405 Safari/7534.48.3)

I think we can finally safely say, "Apple is Doomed."

 

[Rocketman]

The word "yield" indicates it is either a chip or a display. Display is more likely.

One wonders if supply-demand balance is even possible soon with the release date of international occurring before USA S-D balance occurred and all this overlayed on "black Friday" which is now a week-long season as we have cyber Monday and small business Saturday and whatever else somebody has named to try to juice retail sales.

Overall a pretty good problem to have if you are Apple. Just so long as backlog doesn't float past two weeks for very long at a time. Consumers are not very patient these days. The alternatives while of lesser perceived value are increasingly comparable on a variety of levels.

Rocketman

 

[RafaelT]

I think I am going to become an Analyst. It seems all you have to do is make random usually incorrect guesses and you get paid.

 

[anberlinairlift]

"Analysts See"

As if these analysts are fortune tellers. There is no such thing as an analyst that "sees" anything. They are literally a group of people that sit around and get paid to make guesses. The pride of America.

 

[dokujaryu]

Analysts?


"Are these the same analysts who said that GoldenEye couldn't exist? Who said the helicopter posed no threat and wasn't worth following?"

 

[ThunderSkunk]

Hey, I'm an analist too!

Er wait, analyst or analist...

 

[dashiel]

According to checks at the retail level Apple was sold out of 4S on the Friday, but most stores had them back in stock on the Saturday, which as far as I can tell is no different than every other day at the Apple store. So either the supply constraint isn’t that big of a deal or it hasn’t worked its way through the supply channel yet.

One would have to assume if Apple was able to weather both the initial launch and Black Friday the next month or so wouldn’t trouble them.

Also considering the iPhone 4s is an evolutionary iteration of the iPhone 4 I have a hard time seeing what component is having “yield” problems. The A5 has been used for more than 6 months without a problem and the 4S is under clocking the chip which should mean more yield, not less. Similarly the screen has been in production for nearly 18 months which means they should have all the kinks worked out.

 

[*LTD*]

I think I am going to become an Analyst. It seems all you have to do is make random usually incorrect guesses and you get paid.

And the stock will probably move in whatever (intended?) direction as a result.

 

[SandynJosh]

"Analysts See"

As if these analysts are fortune tellers. There is no such thing as an analyst that "sees" anything. They are literally a group of people that sit around and get paid to make guesses. The pride of America.

I sat in on an analysts meeting once. Here's how it's done. Quite simple really.

 

[ironpony]

That is how the stock price can be driven down for a good company.

or at least one way.
Are the Brazilians producing yet?

 

[Peace]

The word "yield" indicates it is either a chip or a display. Display is more likely.

One wonders if supply-demand balance is even possible soon with the release date of international occurring before USA S-D balance occurred and all this overlayed on "black Friday" which is now a week-long season as we have cyber Monday and small business Saturday and whatever else somebody has named to try to juice retail sales.

Overall a pretty good problem to have if you are Apple. Just so long as backlog doesn't float past two weeks for very long at a time. Consumers are not very patient these days. The alternatives while of lesser perceived value are increasingly comparable on a variety of levels.

Rocketman

Makes me wonder if the "constraint on a certain component" isn't manufactured by Samsung.

 

[GorgonPhone]

yup all these sheep running out to buy the glitch ridden 4s and the all new 65 will be out in a few months.. no one with a 4 should get 4s cause bad battery + no jailbreak = sux

 

[SandynJosh]

On a serious note. When a company, such as Apple, relies on a product to be manufactured in one country, out of components manufactured in several other countries, and sold by many dealers and company stores around the world... the possibility for any glitch turning into a disaster is just off the charts.

That Apple is managing this so well, and in spite of plant explosions, natural disasters, normal production problems, shipping damage, and ten thousand other possible issues, is just amazing! I don't know of another company that is operating so well in this way.

Personally I have it much simpler. American made goods destined for an American location and it's a struggle to get that done on schedule regularly.

 

[theelysium]

Go to Frys

If you want an iPhone 4S go to Fry Electronics they have a ton! They don't advertise their the iPhone that well for she reason. I went to the Roseville one and they had 5 32GB Black and 15 32Gb White, plus a ton of 16Gb and 64GB. I only know the stock of the 32GB cuz that's what I was buying.

In Sacramento AT&T & Apple are sold out.... except for Frys!

 

[Rocketman]

Are the Brazilians producing yet?

Yes.

 

[topmounter]

I don't normally do this on a public forum, but let me put on my "analyst" hat for a moment...

My analysis indicates that these supply constraints are indicative of a Q1 launch of the next-gen iPhone. I predict that this model may be called iPhone5, with the "5" referring to the predicted (by me) 5-inch screen size. Please visit my website (and don't forget to click on the ads) for in-depth elaboration and pontification on my cursory analysis.

 

[Consultant]

Makes me wonder if the "constraint on a certain component" isn't manufactured by Samsung.

They got these things call contracts.

 

[Glideslope]

Makes me wonder if the "constraint on a certain component" isn't manufactured by Samsung.

I would say, "Jolly Good Assumption Old Boy." Any company doing business with S.Korea these days is at greater risk than being in China, IMO.

Reunification Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

----------

They got these things call contracts.

Yes, and Samsung pays what for not meeting it? Do we know the terms? Just maybe it's worth the penalties to give it to Apple during the Holidays season.

Very plausible IMO. Very S. Korean in general. Sorry, just don't trust them any longer.

 

[Mr. Gates]

Good !

Get them out of the way and deplete the stock.

Make way for the iPhone 5 !

----------

I don't normally do this on a public forum, but let me put on my "analyst" hat for a moment...

My analysis indicates that these supply constraints are indicative of a Q1 launch of the next-gen iPhone. I predict that this model may be called iPhone5, with the "5" referring to the predicted (by me) 5-inch screen size. Please visit my website (and don't forget to click on the ads) for in-depth elaboration and pontification on my cursory analysis.

5 inch ?


You wouldn't be trolling by any chance would you?

 

[reverie]

So what's the difference between a "key component" and a non-key component? Are there parts that Apple would leave out if they're not available? I don't think so.

 

[nylonsteel]

re original article

selling product as fast as they can make em - what a problem for a company to have

aapl - the most under rated stock in the market

 

[ken94538]

wirelessly posted (mozilla/5.0 (iphone; cpu iphone os 5_0_1 like mac os x) applewebkit/534.46 (khtml, like gecko) version/5.1 mobile/9a405 safari/7534.48.3)

i think we can finally safely say, "apple is doomed."

:d

 

[topmounter]

Good !

Get them out of the way and deplete the stock.

Make way for the iPhone 5 !

----------



5 inch ?


You wouldn't be trolling by any chance would you?

We analysts refer to it as analyzing