A watch doesn't do anything for me. I just started wearing a watch only because my job requires one. I bought a G-Shock.
Before then I always told myself I would buy a really nice watch one day for dressy occasions, but never pulled the trigger.
I'm 29, which means the entire second half of my life, I've had a cell phone. Hadn't had a need to buy a watch, definitely not some nice mechanical one that only tells the time and date. That appreciation for a watch just doesn't exist in my blood.
But.......the Apple Watch brings more functionality to the table for me. And with the SS as an option, I also get the dressy look I want.
Now I admit, I love LOOKING at beautiful watches, but I myself can never justify the purchase of one because they only tell me the time. But that's me and my opinion.
I think mechanical watches will suffer in the end. Smart watches will only get better especially as they become standalone devices. And the batteries improve. Watch makers can sit in denial all they want, but the end is inevitable.
Do we really think that in the year 2030, the mechanical watch is still going to be popular. they already lost a good bit of their popularity over the past 15 years or so with the smartphone (something you don't even wear on your wrist).
You are 100% correct and yes, all watches will suffer. The cheap ones for sure are dead in the next 5 years. The nicer ones will remain, but their sales will be impacted. I won't buy a new Rolex again. Ever. Not to speak in absolutes but I am pretty sure.
Some people don't feel that way personally and that's fine. I am some company still makes pince-nez's somewhere for someone. But not in volume.