I like this thread. I have never worn a mechanical watch, in fact I have only owned 2 watches. And old Timex Expediation and now my AWS.
But what I find interesting is that there are a few people that have said, Rolex, omega, etc have nothing to worry about and the AW will never replace a good mechanical watch. But then I see others that saying how they thought they would rotate between watches but just stopped rotating after a bit to always wearing AW.
That's where the Swiss makers should be considered, they can't stay in business with just a few sales and need to evolve in order to stay in business.
Just like RIM, they didn't evolve and they died. That's what will happen to the low-end Swiss watchmakers, like Rolex, If they don't evolve.
Here are my thoughts...
In the short term, the AW is definitely effect the sub-$1,000 watch market. Brands like G-Shock, Suunto and Seiko are probably already feeling the ripple effects. Eventually the low end Swiss brands, like Hamilton and Longines will be affected as well. The mid-tier brands, like Rolex, Omega and IWC, won't be initially effected but probably paying attention. Rolex and Omega buyers may also buy an AW but won't be replacing their Rolex or Omega with one. The high end super brands, like Patek and AP, whose watches start at $25K aren't worried. Someone considering a Patek won't be looking at the $17K Apple Watch Edition as at those price points, potential resale value and longevity are considerations.
In the long term, as the Apple Watch evolves, becomes better, gains popularity and if it becomes a status symbol, there might be choices that have to be made - do I get a Rolex/Omega or an AW?
Nevertheless I highly doubt that the Swiss brands will start to produce a smartwatch to directly complete against the AW. I have no doubt that they can build the hardware but where would they get the software from, certainly they won't build it themselves. Android? What makes Rolex so successful is actually the lack of too much change. A modern no date Sub 114060 is very similar in design to its great grandfather, the 5512 Sub from the 1960's. The modern Omega Speedmaster 3570.50 is virtually identical to the Speedmaster 145.012 that the Apollo astronauts wore to the Moon. This is what makes these watches so special to watch collectors.
That's not to say that Swiss watch brands haven't evolved. The technology is just different and not based on chipsets or software. My Omega Seamaster 300 is stuffed with Switzerland's latest tech - anti-magnetic movement with a silicon balance spring, ceramic bezel, Liquid Metal numerals. Will it display notifications or give me the weather? Absolutely not, but I wouldn't want it to.
If nothing else, I think that the AW will get a lot of people to wear watches again instead of checking for the time on their phone. That's a good thing for the entire watch industry and may even spark an interest in mechanical watches in some people.
Watch, I finally relented after a try-on session and placed my order for a 42mm SS WSB a few days ago. I figure that I'll try it out with an open mind, see how I can use it and how it fits into my life. While I doubt I'll put away my Omega and Tudor watches for the Apple Watch, it'll be interesting in figuring out how and when I'll use the Apple Watch. I don't know if there'll be a specific use case, like only wearing it to the gym, running, etc, or in rotation with my other watches.
