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App Store Reaches Milestone: One Billion Apps Downloaded
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1 in a billion chance
Your chance, defined mathematically, is 1 in a billion. Your chance was not zero. Now the reality if you were not the billionth downloader your chance of winning was zero. The rules were clear and that is how the game was played. If I buy a lottery scratch ticket and there is only one winning ticket, my chance of winning is zero if I didn't win according to your idea. Not winning doesn't make you chance of winning zero, you had the same chance as anyone else with an internet connection, but you had to decide to play at the right time. Just because people can't read the rules doesn't mean:
1) THE CONTEST WAS NOT FAIR
2) THAT EVERYBODY ELSE WAS CONFUSED
3) THE RULES WEREN'T CLEAR
4) THAT APPLE SUCKS
5) STEVE JOBS OR OBAMA ARE THE ANTI-CHRIST
All it means is you can't/won't/don't/can't be arsed/bothered/take the time to read. The end. Any argument is stupid and invalid. Don't argue with the rules of a game where somebody gives away their stuff. People if you were confused I would keep the mouth closed.
It is better to remain quiet and be considered a fool, then open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
The part that is unclear is the fact that they call it an entry when there is ZERO chance of winning. If I enter a contest on day 1 I should have the same chance of winning as someone that enters on the last day. Otherwise my participation isn't really an entry into the contest. Everyone that downloaded an app during the first week or so had what they did called entries by Apple but they had ZERO chance of winning. Therefore, they were not entered into the contest. I'm not sure how much clearer that can be...
Your chance, defined mathematically, is 1 in a billion. Your chance was not zero. Now the reality if you were not the billionth downloader your chance of winning was zero. The rules were clear and that is how the game was played. If I buy a lottery scratch ticket and there is only one winning ticket, my chance of winning is zero if I didn't win according to your idea. Not winning doesn't make you chance of winning zero, you had the same chance as anyone else with an internet connection, but you had to decide to play at the right time. Just because people can't read the rules doesn't mean:
1) THE CONTEST WAS NOT FAIR
2) THAT EVERYBODY ELSE WAS CONFUSED
3) THE RULES WEREN'T CLEAR
4) THAT APPLE SUCKS
5) STEVE JOBS OR OBAMA ARE THE ANTI-CHRIST
All it means is you can't/won't/don't/can't be arsed/bothered/take the time to read. The end. Any argument is stupid and invalid. Don't argue with the rules of a game where somebody gives away their stuff. People if you were confused I would keep the mouth closed.
It is better to remain quiet and be considered a fool, then open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
This is not true, the chance of winning essentially was depending on the number of people trying to download an app at the exact time the counter to 1 billion was triggered. Just saying
So... You don't know how to do basic math at all? Here's a hint: if Apple did the exact same contest only the winner of said contest was the one who downloaded the tenth application then by your logic the odds of winning would be one in ten.
Here is an idea.
Why dont the people who thought it was going to be drawing of all the 1 billion app downloaders pretend that it was, and a 13 year old won.
What is the difference? You still didnt win.
And you cant use the argument that "If I would have known that I had to be the billionth person I would have watched the timer and did it then."
because that counter was so not accurate. I would refresh the screen and it would jump back and forth all over the place.
My iPhone said it was over before the web site which said it was over before iTunes said it was. Who know when it really ended. It could have been last Saturday morning.
Only Apple and that 13 yr old kid knows when it actually ended.
But again, just pretend it was a drawing.
Why dont the people who thought it was going to be drawing of all the 1 billion app downloaders pretend that it was, and a 13 year old won.
What is the difference? You still didnt win.
And you cant use the argument that "If I would have known that I had to be the billionth person I would have watched the timer and did it then."
because that counter was so not accurate. I would refresh the screen and it would jump back and forth all over the place.
My iPhone said it was over before the web site which said it was over before iTunes said it was. Who know when it really ended. It could have been last Saturday morning.
Only Apple and that 13 yr old kid knows when it actually ended.
But again, just pretend it was a drawing.
My chart and the data behind it.
I think the rate plot is the most interesting. The peak at 1 Billion is neat, but the double peak each day is nifty as well. I think it's Europe going to bed and then the US a few hours later. Apparently people like to buy stuff conveniently late at night. I do find it odd that there's a peak on Monday as well. I would have thought the weekend would have been higher.
I think the rate plot is the most interesting. The peak at 1 Billion is neat, but the double peak each day is nifty as well. I think it's Europe going to bed and then the US a few hours later. Apparently people like to buy stuff conveniently late at night. I do find it odd that there's a peak on Monday as well. I would have thought the weekend would have been higher.
Attachments
Ok people, do you know how contests work? A ticket or object is acquired, then some one dictates how the winner is chosen. In a random draw with one winner your odds are (number of objects you obtained/the number of all objects given out). A little different in this case because the winner was the person who downloaded the 1 B app. So out of all the objects obtained 1 was the winner. So 1 in a billionth chance. But if you keep reading (a big problem with this whole thread) I said really the chance of winning comes down to those that were playing right around the 1 B mark. To be more precise your chance of winning would be 1/(number of people that simultaneously hit download (or submit if you submitted the form after the 999,999,999th app))
The winner out of all the people that hit return at the same time would then be random (or electrical since I have to be explicit here, the time for your signal to travel over the wire and be processed by the servers). If only one person hit the key right at the correct moment in time then the chance of winning for that person was 1/1 and the rest zero. I hope that explains it. Your chance of winning in this contest is not dictated by the amount you download, but rather can you hit the button and the right time, and your electrons transfered to the server first. All the previous downloads only helped the kid win. A different type of contest, but the reality is 1 app download won out of 1 billion app downloads. Sorry you weren't the lucky one!
I didn't do that. Your assumption doesn't make you look small, it actually makes you look stupid and petty, like you're reaching for something to start a fight about.
Really? They need to look deep inside themselves? Wow, you are really full of ****, aren't you?
I'll say this once again, more slowly this time:
I did not say they didn't understand. I said they likely didn't read the entire set of rules. There is a big difference.
Also, this isn't as big a deal as you are making it out to be. In the grand scheme of things this is less important than forgetting something and having to walk back 10 steps to grab it. I mean really. You are acting like people are talking about suing over this or something. We are having a conversation and the fact that you can't acknowledge even for a second that there was a lack of clarity even with the evidence of the people in this forum saying they thought the contest worked in a different way means that you are either obtuse or obstinate.
Had Apple included the paragraph you are so fond of with the information about how the winner would be chosen and either removed or reworded the paragraph that discusses "entries" then this would not be an issue.
I say we all email the sweepstakes and complain because the official rules clearly states that all entries (up to 25 per person per day) will be counted up until the downloading of the billionth app. No where does it say that the downloader of the billionth app is the winner. Am I wrong on this? It is possible that Apple mistakingly worded it wrong and meant to say that that kid is the winner NOT because he downloaded the billionth app but because his name was drawn.
That is the most ignorant and ridiculous assessment of the situation that I've read thus far. You sir have ZERO understanding of mathematics and statistics in particular.
I love (not really love) how these contests are always won by kids who come from very pretentious towns. The one millionth iTunes song was some kid in some wealthy michigan suburb. This kid lives in Weston, CT which is in Fairfield county which relatively speaking is probably one of the wealthiest towns in the US. Not to say this kid couldn't be poor but who knows. I suppose if you don't have a lot of extra money you won't be buying luxuries such as iPods and apps for it.
Oh well, it is a one in a billion chance. Anything can happen.
Oh well, it is a one in a billion chance. Anything can happen.
Because apps were downloaded afterward, but none of those, just like the 999,999,999 downloads before the winning one, weren't the winning download.
That's kinda fascinating. I'd attribute the Monday peak to those getting back to work that don't have (or don't use) home computers on the weekend.
That or the advertising campaign (banners and such) kicked in on Monday and drew more people into the promotion.
Apple said:
Okay, um, that's not clear, people! Everyone did not "automatically get the chance to win". This is the language that misled a lot of people into thinking every entry had an equal chance, not just the billionth entry.
So spare me the "official rules" and spare me the red boldfaced explanation of them for all of us numbskulls who didn't bother to read them in the first place (aka, the majority). The fact is that Apple's homepage language was LAME.
a billion.
Okay, um, that's not clear, people! Everyone did not "automatically get the chance to win". This is the language that misled a lot of people into thinking every entry had an equal chance, not just the billionth entry.
So spare me the "official rules" and spare me the red boldfaced explanation of them for all of us numbskulls who didn't bother to read them in the first place (aka, the majority). The fact is that Apple's homepage language was LAME.
Thanks so much for posting that. That is what I've been thinking about and I couldn't remember where I read it. As a reminder, here is the definition of unclear wording:
https://www.macrumors.com/2009/04/10/apple-launches-1-billion-app-countdown-promotion/
as compared to 100% perfectly clear wording by Apple on their last similar promotion:
https://www.macrumors.com/2004/07/01/itunes-countdown-to-100-million/