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Apple 4th Quarter 2005 Conference Call

egor said:
You realise those two big blocks are in fact the heatsinks/cooling equipment and no processor looks like that, right?

Regarding the earnings.. what a disappointment, I've got nothing in apple, but this was meant to be the start of a couple of weeks of many major tech stocks releasing their earnings reports.. allowing the blue chips to bounce back.. LLTC for example (which actually manufactures some components found in apple products, iPods in particular). Well, we'll see, maybe AAPL will bounce back tommorow? Hopefully these were just people with short positions cashing in on uncertainty.

What a bizarre time to call the conference though.. after trading. Hopefully come tommorow they'll all start off as well as today but won't slump.
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Wait, are you disappointed with the earnings, or with the after market trading? Earnings were great, the only number that disappointed was iPod unit sales (the unit sales were great too, but some were predicting more.)
 
Anyone else think Apple is playing games to pinpoint who is leaking to ThinkSecret? :D

PS, if TS's sudden reversal is rightm then Macs may NOT be coming tomorrow (but still soon--hang in there).
 
Yeah well, the consensus estimate was for $3.71B and they only made $3.68B, missing the numbers by 1%, while the iPod sales were only 6.45m missing the low estimate of 6.7m. No wonder the stock tanked, even though Apple beat their own guidance.

It didn't have anything to do with clueless analysts overhyping things before hand, of course. A conspiracy theorist wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying up stock first thing tomorrow morning.

Yes, that's sarcasm - I shouldn't have to use smileys if I don't want to.
 
nagromme said:
Anyone else think Apple is playing games to pinpoint who is leaking to ThinkSecret? :D

PS, if TS's sudden reversal is rightm then Macs may NOT be coming tomorrow (but still soon--hang in there).
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I think you might be on to something. Apple has probably been releasing a variety of false info around to see what appears on which website. This allows them to pinpoint where the info leak is at within the ranks.

Meanwhile Apple releases a new product that has nothing to do with any of the rumors. Apple kills two birds with one stone.

PM & PB updates have been rumored soon for the last 6 months. If nothing appears tomorrow I may just give up and buy the current top 17" PB. My old 15" is starting to fade fast and I am fading with it. :eek:
 
diamond3 said:
Did anyone here the foreign guy ask about the progress of the intel switch. The responce was that they would have them in by summer next year. The foriegn guy then asked if they thought it would be any sooner. The response was extremely wierd, he took a pause before he said anything, then said there would be announces about it. could it be tomorrow possibly?
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At minute 12:30 in the call, Peter clearly says "We just completed the best year...we remain enthusiastic about out product pipeline and will have some very exciting announcements to share TOMORROW.".. OK, that sounds generic enough to me - the context was not ipod - Announcements (plural)..
 
powerbook911 said:
This sucks. After hours trading is really down. I hope the announcements tomorrow bounce it back a little.
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Analysts are bean counters that only buy on over performance. By the numbers, Apple outperformed. However, some analysts were predicting up to 8.5 million iPods this quarter-- a highly unrealistic number that few investors would read in to.

Bottom line-- analysts can be very, very shallow. The miss a lot of important aspects and you see that with this sell off. You should look at this as an opportunity to acquire a few more shares. I think I might.

I made 80%+ about a year and a half ago on Apple stock. My father has made 400%+ since he held for a longer amount of time. Apple stock is hot!
 
plinden said:
Yeah well, the consensus estimate was for $3.71B and they only made $3.68B, missing the numbers by 1%, while the iPod sales were only 6.45m missing the low estimate of 6.7m. No wonder the stock tanked, even though Apple beat their own guidance.

It didn't have anything to do with clueless analysts overhyping things before hand, of course. A conspiracy theorist wouldn't be surprised to see institutions buying up stock first thing tomorrow morning.

Yes, that's sarcasm - I shouldn't have to use smileys if I don't want to.
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Yes. It's important to note that analysts and larger investors can sell off small chunks to drive the price down after a conference call. Last time I looked that was 10%. They trade after hours. Then, when everyone sees that Apple beat their own estimates (awesome numbers) all these after hours traders buy back larger chunks before the bell in the morning and make 10% overnight. It's classic.
 
Good news all around, but more market share needs to be gained.

I wonder what happened to the advertising campaign that was briefly mentioned a while ago.
 
Screw Today

I am glad for the profit and all, but tomorrow is gonna be the real day of fireworks! I can't wait to see what Apple unveils next, this could be a huge day!

Stop worrying about the stock, this is a good chance to buy, Apple is gonna release new stuff and the stock will shoot up. So calm down Apple is not tanking!
 
digitalbiker said:
PM & PB updates have been rumored soon for the last 6 months. If nothing appears tomorrow I may just give up and buy the current top 17" PB. My old 15" is starting to fade fast and I am fading with it. :eek:
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Hang in for another week :) Apple may want to distance some minor (or perceivably disappointing) updates from the "big event."
 
"Intel Based Macs still expected by June 2006. Some "very cool" PowerPCs in the pipeline."

I would take this statement with a pinch of salt, when it comes to the PPC part.

Apple *always* say this, well, they have to don't they.

And everyone is disappointed when they produce the goods... which isn't so innovative as most people made the statement out to be...
 
Stella said:
Apple *always* say this, well, they have to don't they.

And everyone is disappointed when they produce the goods... which isn't so innovative as most people made the statement out to be...
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Sure they have to say it.......


I was pretty stoked with the first gen G5's improvements.
 
Cfg5 said:
Has there ever been an event with as much speculation and rumors as this one has gotten?
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Um ... just every time Steve opens his mouth. This rumor is nothing on the activity of discussion scale.
 
pjmurphy77 said:
At minute 12:30 in the call, Peter clearly says "We just completed the best year...we remain enthusiastic about out product pipeline and will have some very exciting announcements to share TOMORROW.".. OK, that sounds generic enough to me - the context was not ipod - Announcements (plural)..
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I just heard it as well.!! Nice!

Regards,
Peter
 
plinden said:
It didn't have anything to do with clueless analysts overhyping things before hand, of course.
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A very good point. And now the "analysts" have analysed something and convinced themselves that the iPod Video is imminent. Whilst I'm convinced that they're correct, if Steve doesn't announce it, I guess traders will likely sell-off what Apple stock they have left.

The timing of today's event is interesting; almost like Apple new that the results would disappoint. I wonder if any of today's announcements were ready at the Nano launch, but held back as post-result sweeteners?
 
Bear said:
The split is between desktops and portables. Notice the word portable and not laptop? The Mac mini is considered a portable computer by Apple. So there were a lot of iMacs and PowerMacs sold last quarter.
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That would make no sense. In the Apple Q3 10Q filing, the Net Sales line item for Portables "Includes iBook and PowerBook product lines" while Desktops "Includes iMac, eMac, Mac mini, PowerMac and Xserve product lines." A change now would be a rather serious discrepancy to explain to investors.

Note: The Mac mini is listed as a portable in the services and support section of the website.
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Where does that come from? The mini is placed under "Macs" and not "Portables/Wireless" at http://www.apple.com/support/ -- have they misfiled it elsewhere?
 
madmaxmedia said:
Wait, are you disappointed with the earnings, or with the after market trading? Earnings were great, the only number that disappointed was iPod unit sales (the unit sales were great too, but some were predicting more.)
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I'm disappointed in the slowdown of increased growth in general and slowdown of growth in the portable music player market.. it doesn't bother me that its a little under analyst's predictions on apple per se, it bothers me that it goes against estimates of renewed growth for the next couple of years in the industry as a whole. Having said that, AMD's financial results (also announced yesterday) have shot right up so I'm much more confident that the next couple of weeks will be pretty good as hoped.
 
It's funny how they said that Apple didn't meet analysts' revenue target. That number is just an aggregate of many analysts' predicitons. The range of guesses varied from $3.4 to $3.9 billion. I'd be interested if that $3.7-something figure was just a simple average of all the guesses or if it were weighted by the past accuracy of the analyst.

On another topic, does anyone else find the choice of words about pending PowerPC-based Macs intriguing? Did they just mean that the new line of PPC Macs are "very cool" in the slang sense of "being attractive" or does it also have a literal meaning indicating that they've addressed "the mother of all thermal challenges?" It's a shame those brain-dead analysts didn't catch that hint and press the Apple people on the issue because they've become so iPod-obsessed.
 
IJ Reilly said:
I'll take that as a promise. ;)
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10:47 AM and it's only down $1.72 from yesterday's close. Almost back!! If Jobs announces a video iPod later, it will soar.
 
egor said:
I'm disappointed in the slowdown of increased growth in general and slowdown of growth in the portable music player market.. it doesn't bother me that its a little under analyst's predictions on apple per se, it bothers me that it goes against estimates of renewed growth for the next couple of years in the industry as a whole. Having said that, AMD's financial results (also announced yesterday) have shot right up so I'm much more confident that the next couple of weeks will be pretty good as hoped.
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Here's some data:

Code: 
Unit Sales (thousands)
        Qtr     Year    Qtr     Year    
        iPod    iPod    Mac     Mac     

Q1 2001                 659             
Q2 2001                 751             
Q3 2001                 827             
Q4 2001                 850     3087    
Q1 2002                 736             iPod launched
Q2 2002 57              813             G4 iMac, 10G iPod, 14" iBook
Q3 2002 54              808             Ti Powerbook
Q4 2002         381     1044    3401    Jaguar, 2nd gen iPod, iPod for Windows, 17" G4 iMac
Q1 2003                 743             
Q2 2003 78              711             17" Powerbook
Q3 2003 304             771             iTMS launched, 3rd gen iPod
Q4 2003         939     787     3012    
Q1 2004 733             829             Panther, iTunes for Windows, 20" G4 iMac
Q2 2004 807             749             iPod mini
Q3 2004 860             876             
Q4 2004 2016    4416    833     3287    4th Gen iPod, Airport Express, G5 iMac
Q1 2005 4580            1046            Mac mini, iPod Shuffle
Q2 2005 5311            1070            Tiger
Q3 2005 6155            1182            
Q4 2005 6451    22497   1236    4534    iPod Nano

It's hard to draw any outright conclusions. Year over year growth is fantastic, although 2005 Q3 to Q4 didn't increase much, while 2004 Q3 to Q4 did. Keep in mind that Apple fiscal Q1 is actually the calendar Q4.

A lot depends on this quarter's sales. To continue recent trends we are hoping for 12 million iPods sold. That's an awfully big number...

iPod sales obviously cannot double every year for another 5 years. So let's see where it goes...
 
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