Apple Abandons Car Plans 'For Now,' Sets Late 2017 Deadline to Decide Fate of Self-Driving System

[nt5672]

. . . .

With an autonomous car, defects in the brakes would be immediately noticed. The car would demand that it be serviced before driving you anywhere.

You've been watching too much TV.
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Fuel Cells are a myth. They're difficult to make, difficult (and energy intensive) to refuel, and there's no existing infrastructure.

With EVs, there's simply not enough battery supply in the world right now. It's why Tesla is building the Gigafactory in Nevada. Once that factory is operation in 2020, Tesla will control 75% of the world's battery supply. Having all of those batteries will be enough for them to build 1M cars per year.

That's why GM says they're only going to build 30K EVs per year - they can't obtain enough batteries to build more.

Until other companies get serious about making batteries, Tesla is going to be the only major EV manufacturer. The other car manufacturers can talk all they want, but they're not making the investments that they need to right now to be a major player in this game in a few years.

When I checked a couple of years ago, there was at the time only enough raw materials to build batteries for 10 to 12 years at the then current rate of usage. Without a technology breakthrough, EV's are dead in the water for mainstream use.

 

[BeefCake 15]

The car would demand that it be serviced before driving you anywhere.

No thank you, I don't need a second wife. I'm happy with my gasoline or diesel for now

 

[Gameboy70]

Seems like Apple is looking for the next growth market now that computers, tablets, and cell phones have (or are well onto) plateau'd to a commodity product. Strange that they picked cars, self driving or otherwise.

Agreed. Cars aren't a growth market, despite the current uptick in sales due to falling gas prices (which would argue against getting into EVs a la Tesla).

There's been a generational shift from suburban to inner-city living, coupled with Uberization, that's reduced the need and even desire for car ownership. When I was a kid in the Seventies, there was a lot of romance around car culture. Today's kids seem much more excited about this year's model of smartphone than they are about new cars, which doesn't bode well for the auto industry in the next decade.

Moreover, rents and mortgages have skyrocketed over the past 20 years to the point where the disposable income for a car payment just isn't there for over half the workforce, where's anyone can justify spending a few hundred bucks every year or two on a phone.

Besides, Apple is used to high volume, fat margin products. Even the most prestigious cars peak around 15%, and Apple now sells nearly as many iPhones worldwide in a year than all brands of cars combined (74.5m vs 83m).

 

[tongxinshe]

Until we can program morality, self driving cars won't be a thing.

(The classic problem when the car has to decide who to kill if the brakes fail scenario)

There is no way to make anything 100% perfect, the only way to judge its suitability is to check the autonomous system's statistics, if it does its job better than average real person, then it's okay to move on. On top of that, the system can also get better and better over time.

 

[Chrjy]

Apple has always had a ton of research projects behind the scenes which eventually led to great successes such as the iPod, iPhone and iPad. The focus part was saying no to "productizing" a lot of those projects.

The Mac funded those developments and while it pains some people to hear it, the Mac is a category in decline and will continue to lose its relevance in an increasingly mobile world.

So by shifting its focus away from the Mac, you could argue that Apple is very much focused on the future and milking the Mac cow for all it's worth which is what any smart business person would do. Heck, even Intel is looking away from PCs for growth.

I'm very aware that Apple have always done a ton of research, I bought my first Mac in 1987 and have not switched since. The reality is, their product line is now bigger that it ever used to be and makes me wonder if that is the reason they are starting to make mistakes. Apple have had a number of hiccups along their journey as you would expect but there has been far more recently.

As for the argument against the relevance of a Mac, quite frankly it's a moot point right now because they still sell and people still use them. Yes, we are moving into a 'mobile crazed technology world' but for those that need to do professional work (studio production) the Mac is still an imperative tool and I can't see that changing anytime soon. When referring to software development, animation, video etc, the Mac is still the goto machine and is not replaceable with tablets at this time.

So for those that mention (including Tim Cook) that an iPad can replace your computer then it's important to realise that theres's more to some people's work than Word, Excel and Mail!

 

[SeattleMoose]

Can of worms....let Google waste THEIR money on this boondoggle. Who wants to be trapped in a self driving car full of never-ending software bugs?

 

[dampfnudel]

I know Apple is constantly looking for the next golden goose product and is worried about having most of their eggs in their iPhone basket. I don't think an Apple car is the answer, but I could be wrong.

 

[entropi]

I just wonder.... Even though Apple is a lot more like Microsoft these days (with all windows-like annoying upgrading-pop ups in iOS that we can't turn off) - who will buy this "car-software" from them? Doesn't carmakers develop their own software? Why buy Apple's?

 

[69650]

Yet another example that Tim Cook couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery.

 

[kdarling]

Wonder where the automotive engineers who were bribed away from Tesla and other places are going to go now.

 

[44267547]

Tim's spreading the company way too thin. So many projects being worked on at once, definitely don't have that "laser focus..."

I don't have a lot of knowledge on autonomous cars or the Apple Project. But I agree, Apple's main focus should be on their core products. They are an amazing company with useful hardware and I hope their focus stays true to who they are.

 

[8281]

Well that can fail too you know

Ok, well, sure anything is within the realm of possibility. It's improbable for the hydraulic and regen braking systems to fail all at once. In that case we'll program the computer to make a sick handbrake turn and start drifting to avoid obstacles.
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Why? I rode an electric motorcycle when I was a toddler...don't see the hype about electric vs. gasoline.

There's no pollution from the car itself (and even running coal, a power plant will be more efficient than an ICE), there's less service required (less moving parts, no engine oil, no engine filters, spark plugs, fan belts, etc), you can refuel from your home (no more gas stations means you are no longer dependent on a highly volatile global commodity), instant torque (electric motors have all their torque available at zero RPM), and I'm sure there are more benefits.

 

[apolloa]

Hmm I did make a post about those watch bands,...

Never mind...

This, if true, means they've wasted millions for nothing. And they are STILL a one trick pony company. It's not a very good position to be in when your one trick has the same design three years running. But reading the rumours, they literally have no next big thing still. Which is apparently what all the big time investors want.

Although Cook seems to think the future of Apple is services, those aren't too good either. They've had very few hits but mainly misses. And they have seemingly utterly ignore all but one of their computers.

I have the feeling Apple is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Oh well they can always keep churning out those watch bands...

But as a board they seem to be falling apart, it's not good when you as a big company spend millions and millions then scrap the whole idea. It seems to show a lack of vision and understanding of the market. I wonder if we'll hear stories of Apple being arrogant and trying to bully car makers into deals like they were with the TV content companies? Let's hope not. And that's something else they wasted so much time in and failed at, getting TV content deals.

Yeap I have had the feeling a few times the company is all over the place with no direction. Hate to say it but if Steve was still running it....

 

[kazmac]

Now put some of those billions to good use in your Mac / iOS software and hardware please. Quality Control just has to improve across the board.

and fix the activation lock issues.

 

[gnipgnop]

In a lot of urban areas, it would probably be more beneficial to focus on better mass transit + safer ways for people to get around on bikes etc. than focus on electric cars or self-driving cars.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Officially, on the record, GM affiliates have stated that production can be ramped up to 50K if the demand is there. Unofficially through local suppliers here in MI the word is that max capacity with a one year lead time is about 70K.

The Bolt's battery pack is built by LG in an overseas plant, but they have a Michigan plant that could also produce batteries on short notice. That's where the 70K figure likely originates. LG are a manufacturing powerhouse so if the demand is there then they will meet it, even if it takes a year or two.

Unfortunately the limit to Bolt sales will likely be GM's incompetent marketing, general consumer anxiety about new auto tech, and GM's poor reputation for quality. They deserve the bad reputation but they've been turning it around over the past decade. The Volt even ranks among the most reliable cars on the market.

Funny how I didn't consider GM's marketing when I became interested in the Bolt. They haven't hyped the hell out of the car, true, but my sense is GM feels they can sell just about as many as they can make in the first year, and I believe that is probably true. A large number of these cars are also said to be destined for fleet sales to Lyft. If a poor reputation for reliability was an overriding issue, Tesla would be toast by now.

 

[admob71]

They should just have bought Tesla if they wanted to make an Apple car.

You mean like every Apple innovation of the last so many years, just buy the company that created it and repackage it as your own. The ifans will lap it up..

 

[SteveW928]

Figures.... like Google, it looks like they blew it by focusing on 'autonomous' rather than just building a good electric car. At least Elon got that part right, if not for the boondoggle with their 'Auto-pilot'.

 

[Dmunjal]

Agreed. Cars aren't a growth market, despite the current uptick in sales due to falling gas prices (which would argue against getting into EVs a la Tesla).

There's been a generational shift from suburban to inner-city living, coupled with Uberization, that's reduced the need and even desire for car ownership. When I was a kid in the Seventies, there was a lot of romance around car culture. Today's kids seem much more excited about this year's model of smartphone than they are about new cars, which doesn't bode well for the auto industry in the next decade.

Moreover, rents and mortgages have skyrocketed over the past 20 years to the point where the disposable income for a car payment just isn't there for over half the workforce, where's anyone can justify spending a few hundred bucks every year or two on a phone.

Besides, Apple is used to high volume, fat margin products. Even the most prestigious cars peak around 15%, and Apple now sells nearly as many iPhones worldwide in a year than all brands of cars combined (74.5m vs 83m).

Tesla just grew 111% YoY this past quarter and is on pace to sell 80K cars this year. They have 400K reservations for their next generation car. Cars aren't a growth market but self-driving EV cars definitely are.

 

[SteveW928]

If you're faced with the scenario where you can hit a pedestrian or a brick wall, the speed limit is 20 MPH. Hitting something or someone will injure them - maybe send them to a hospital. They almost certainly won't die. Unless you're speeding badly.

I think the hope is that they'll go more than 20mph some day. That's the problem. Even below 20mph, they drive like a drunken first-day driver-ed student. It's because they aren't really driving, they are just reacting to a bunch of sensor input via a complex program (and we all know how there are no bugs in computer software).

And, yes, a 2000+ lb vehicle can kill someone at 1mph. If the sensor doesn't properly detect them, or the software doesn't properly interpret the situation, your body will just be an oddly placed speed-bump possibly recorded in the log file.

 

[Dmunjal]

Funny how I didn't consider GM's marketing when I became interested in the Bolt. They haven't hyped the hell out of the car, true, but my sense is GM feels they can sell just about as many as they can make in the first year, and I believe that is probably true. A large number of these cars are also said to be destined for fleet sales to Lyft. If a poor reputation for reliability was an overriding issue, Tesla would be toast by now.

The GM Bolt is not in the same class as a Tesla. The Model S and X compete with BMW, Mercedes, and Audi in the $75K-$140K range. The upcoming Model 3 starts at $35K but will compete against BMW 3 and Mercedes C. They will have RWD and AWD vs. FWD in the Bolt. Not to mention better handling, performance, and style. The Bolt has an econobox basis.
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You mean like every Apple innovation of the last so many years, just buy the company that created it and repackage it as your own. The ifans will lap it up..

The problem is all those billions are off-shore and can't be used for acquisitions. Tesla, Netflix, and even Disney are cheap for Apple but they can't bring that money home to make these acquisitions without being taxed at 35%.

 

[apolloa]

Figures.... like Google, it looks like they blew it by focusing on 'autonomous' rather than just building a good electric car. At least Elon got that part right, if not for the boondoggle with their 'Auto-pilot'.

Yeap, although Tesla seems to have been 'experimenting' with its customers cars and autonomous driving, it has cut a bit of a niche as a high end luxury electric car brand, they can go what 300 miles ish now? Not bad.

I think the hope is that they'll go more than 20mph some day. That's the problem. Even below 20mph, they drive like a drunken first-day driver-ed student. It's because they aren't really driving, they are just reacting to a bunch of sensor input via a complex program (and we all know how there are no bugs in computer software).

And, yes, a 2000+ lb vehicle can kill someone at 1mph. If the sensor doesn't properly detect them, or the software doesn't properly interpret the situation, your body will just be an oddly placed speed-bump possibly recorded in the log file.

Never mind the cars, what's more worrying is they are pushing hard on autonomous trucks now! How's about 40 tons of robot driven lorry??? Not so sure I like it, unfortunately they are testing them and developing them here in the UK.

 

[IJ Reilly]

The GM Bolt is not in the same class as a Tesla. The Model S and X compete with BMW, Mercedes, and Audi in the $75K-$140K range. The upcoming Model 3 starts at $35K but will compete against BMW 3 and Mercedes C. They will have RWD and AWD vs. FWD in the Bolt. Not to mention better handling, performance, and style. The Bolt has an econobox basis.

Nope. First of all, nobody is comparing the Bolt to the Tesla models now being sold, if for no other reason than the Teslas are super luxury priced cars. As for comparing to the Model 3, the obvious issue is that car is not available yet, when it will be available isn't known, and neither is the actual price. All of those things are known about the Bolt, and you can actually buy one now. You might want to read some reviews of the Bolt before you make claims about its "basis."

 

[canadianreader]

The inventor of the reusable exploding rocket surely knows how to burn money.
Also: Hyperloop to Infinity!

I still prefer him and I may change my opinion in the future but for now Tesla cars are good cars overall

 

[IJ Reilly]

I still prefer him and I may change my opinion in the future but for now Tesla cars are good cars overall

Except when they aren't:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/

I hope Tesla succeeds but I am not blind to the issues they face.