Anything is possible, and I think it's a worthwhile thought experiment to discuss the possible ramifications of any changes to the App Store model.
I feel the crux here is that many people choose to zero in on Apple's 30% cut and fixate on it in a vacuum (often comparing it to the 3% charged by payment processors). For me, the main draw of Apple products is the entire ecosystem, which comprises of a mix of both paid and free software and services (which are certainly not free to operate and maintain), and I guess for me, all the money they make goes into one giant pool which is then funnelled into whichever part needs the money. As such, I fully support Apple's decision to monetise as many aspects of their ecosystem as possible (via profitable hardware, paid services, AppleCare, Apple Pay, App Store, Google's payout, plus whatever future avenues they go down).
I go back to my earlier point about how free apps by indie developers add to the vitality of the App Store, and the corresponding value of owning an iOS device. For example, a blogger I follow, Matt Bircher, recently released a couple of apps. He does not expect to make any meaningful amount of money from his apps, this is purely a passion project for him, and if the annual fee were raised, it may reduce the incentive for developers like him to continue working on their apps. $500 is not an insignificant amount to spend on a hobby.
Tech, Apple, and the vast grey area that is AI
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From the perspective of the end user, having fewer developers on board would be a disadvantage. I also do not want to have to deal with a situation where a particular app is not available through the main App Store, and I have to navigate to a standalone website or a third party App Store to get it. The winners here are the already big players who make more than enough profits anyways. The losers are the very people whom we want to encourage to develop for the platform, and iOS users by extension (because there are now less variety of apps available).
The other alternative is to just have Apple absorb the costs of running the App Store (a common argument is that they make more than enough money from iPhones anyways). It's certainly an option, and I guess it can also be argued that the money from the App Store go towards funding other services like Siri, maps, iMessage and satellite relay which add value to Apple hardware, but make no money of their own.
I do get the argument for being able to install whatever app you want (especially with the recent Iceblock debacle). It's still not enough to sway me from my stance that the App Store remains the intellectual property of Apple. For now.