nuckinfutz said:
I'm sure it'll be lower than 15Mbps. Hell why move off of ATSC 19.8 for only a 3.8Mbps savings??
Because it will look better! The goal should be BETTER video than ATSC, not just ATSC quality at lower bitrates. ATSC is 19.39Mbps MAX but that includes video, audio, PSIP tables, and null packets. The actual bitrate used by stations is closer to 15Mbps from what I've seen. Still there are encoding artifacts in high motion scenes (like baseketball games) because of the bandwidth limitation. 15Mbps VBR would allow for PQ as good as can be rendered with the codecs (according to early tests to find where diminishing returns jump off the cliff) and still allow room for complex scenes to peak higher when needed.
I'm willing to bet that they'll eventually avg around 12Mbps with 6-8Mbs for the Audio.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the studios - we could well see lower bitrates.

As a consumer, I'm going to push for the very best PQ and SQ possible. If I can have 15Mbps video and 6 channels of lossless 24/192 audio, why not give it to me? 8 channels of 24/96 lossless audio would be fine too. If it comes down to HD-DVD has movies encoded at 10-12Mbps with lossy audio and Blu-ray has movies encoded at 15Mbps with lossless audio - I'm going to buy Blu-ray and I'll Netflix the rest of the titles on standard DVD.
I just hopped onto the Doom9 forums but I didn't have time to search for peoples results with AVC and HD content. When Tiger ships I think we'll have a better idea. You could be right though it may take 15Mbps and I would be disappointed.
Don't be disappointed. I'm basing my 15-16Mbps assumption on a statement by the program manager for VC-1 who said that this is where their customers said that they stop seeing an increase in PQ with both codecs. Said another way, further increases in bitrate don't result in further increases in PQ. This compares with 22-25Mbps MPEG-2. We're getting a 30-40% reduction in bitrate for incredible PQ - maybe the very best PQ possible with current display technology. We could do ATSC quality at 12Mbps but why not do better than that?
As for Tiger, I think there are going to be vastly different expectations for video conferencing using H.264 and iMovie HD in Tiger and packaged media. The story of H.264 in Tiger is going to be the same or better PQ at lower bitrates but the story of H.264/VC-1 in high def packaged media should be better PQ.
Weldon could you give me link to the LotR pic you speak of? I'll admit BD is slowly winning me over and I'm a pretty stubborn person but unless the HD Forum starts putting up more information about the authoring and Internet capabilities of HD-DVD I may have to join "Team BD"
The March 14th Sonic
press release covers their BD authoring tools. And then
this March 16th article shows the screeshots that Sonic put together. It says HD DVD but I was told this was a Blu-ray demo to go with the BD authoring tools announcement. Hmmm, I just pulled up the translation with google and this may actually be HD-DVD. Would make sense since New Line is in the HD-DVD camp. Maybe I got bad info.
But don't get all excited yet. As I was pulling up the above URL's, I found that HD-DVD has added internet streaming to their spec last week. I also found a statement that says the menu capabilities will be nearly identical on both platforms because they were designed to a requirements spec from the studios. Consumers won't see much difference in the menu's.
I think all of this shows how positive the format competition has been for consumers. We get two great codecs, great lossless and high bitrate audio options, great new menu and internet features, etc. The differences are really narrowing down to capacity, bandwidth, and cost. Capacity and bandwidth are on the side of Blu-ray, but cost remains to be seen.
The race continues.