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HD DVD and Blu-Ray media prices won't come down to least $2/piece well until 2010. It took about 5 years from DVDs introduction before the prices dropped to $1/piece for premium DVD discs. I should expect the same for HD and blu-ray as well.
 
I'm not sure I understand why nut and others keep arguing that Blu-ray hardware will cost more. To Sony, maybe, but it's doubtful that means much to me... they're going to have to price competitively with HD DVD (especially since it appears they'll be last to market) and absorb the initial losses. So this running feud about production lines and disc structure is wasted bandwidth. It is more than likely you'll see both players introduced in the $1000 range.

It would be wonderful if Blu-ray were to win, though it's too early to tell. There's no such thing as "overkill" on data storage. The additional space allows for improved PQ as well as lossless DTS -- your movies, concerts, etc. will sound better as well. HD DVD has a small advantage at this point with a more market-friendly name and a number of moderately popular titles announced. But Sony/Disney could drop a couple of Charlie's Angels, a Spiderman or two and some Pixar blockbusters and all of a sudden it's a fight again. My hope is they can get going by Christmas, but we'll see.
 
Ted Witcher said:
I'm not sure I understand why nut and others keep arguing that Blu-ray hardware will cost more. To Sony, maybe, but it's doubtful that means much to me... they're going to have to price competitively with HD DVD

It's because the movie companies don't want to spend extra cents.
If they retail a movie for $15 and the store takes 40% and the distributor takes 15% then they've got a gross margin of $6.75. Out of that they need to take marketing, production of the disks and all fixed overheads as well as royalties and the production of the actual movie if it didn't make it in the theaters. If the blank disk for Blu-ray costs them $1 more than for HD-DVD then it gives them a much slimmer margin to work with. For them, every penny matters.

On the flip side, the HD-DVD format is good enough for movies. The Blu-ray may be better but to the movie house that doesn't matter. Good enough is good enough as Boris would misquote to Natasha.
 
pubwvj said:
It's because the movie companies don't want to spend extra cents.

You're assuming that Sony won't take a loss for the first few months or year of production.

Not sure that's warranted.
 
Yeah, I agree -- and I said that. There's a weird assumption here that Sony and others are going to pass along their initial increased costs to consumers... which wouldn't make much sense. That's the upside of competition. They're going to have to take the losses to get their product going.

In fact, who's to say that the losses aren't offset by revenue from the patent pool? You have every computer manufacturer and almost all the hardware manufacturers committed to Blu-ray, whereas only Toshiba and -- NEC, is it? -- making HD DVD players and drives.
 
Ted,
You're correct, to the consumer the difference between a penny or two in production or the extra time it takes for a BR disc to be stamped is inconseqential. However to the studios it affects their margins. $.02 doesn't sound like much of a difference until you multiply it by a billion.

You're assuming that Sony won't take a loss for the first few months or year of production.

No it's the movie studio that takes the loss of margin. Sony isn't financing Blu-Ray folks. Each studio and hardware manufacturer fronts their own costs. I don't think many of us HD-DVD defenders are anti Blu-Ray it's just that when you get enough people screaming about how Blu-Ray is superior(which it is..but not necessarily for movies) then I'm not sure they'll understand why studios are interested in Blu-Ray. It's cost plain and simple.

Ted

Hardware is easy to make. HP, Dell and Apple don't make hardware. When have you seen a Dell ASIC chip for networking? These are computer resellers who will pimp a format until they have to move on. The person that gets screwed is YOU. How far did Apple help DVD-RAM? How was Apple's support for DVD-R instrumental in beating DVD+R. It wasn't.

the companies that matter are the Pressing Plants, the semiconducter companies that will make the encode/decode chipsets. The optical companies that will lessen the cost of the assemblies saving money. I laugh everytime someone mentions Dell and Blu-Ray. Let is not forget that Microsoft is supporting HD-DVD in Longhorn. Hell Bill Gates is personally worth more than Apple computer as a whole. Tit for tat I guess.

I'm preparing to own both formats. I love movies and I want to see them in the best light. Blu-Ray is a nice format..perhaps a bit overkill but I see both drives co-existing. If the genius engineers can work their magic we might see a universal player some day but that will require some work.
 
Ted Witcher said:
There's a weird assumption here that Sony and others are going to pass along their initial increased costs to consumers... which wouldn't make much sense.

You make a good point. The market sets prices - not a company's cost structure. If a company has to price their format for high definition DVD at $30 to make a profit, that's not Joe Consumer's problem.

Eventually these things will be priced like commodities just as standard definition DVDs are today. The only question is which format will win. So long as there are at least two choices, the answer to that question probably has more to do with timing, ease of use, and capability than cost. The iPod is a good example of this. Lots of us wondered if the iPod would sell when it first was released because of its cost. The reason the iPod did sell is its incredible ease of use and performance.
 
Dave00 said:
In the U.S., at least, all broadcasts are heading towards HD, and eventually they'll enforce the migration of all new TV's to HDTV. (There's already a timeframe for this, but it's behind schedule.) Once there's more content, and new TV's are all HD, people are going to wonder why their DVD's look so comparatively crappy.
Incorrect. All broadcasts not "heading towards HD." "They" won't enforce migration of all new TVs to HDTV.

What is happening is a transition towards DTV (digital broadcast). DTV can be SD or HD.
 
Hope this is not history repeating it's self with the DVD-RAM and then to DVD-R/RW and now DVD±R/RW.

Though Apple will adopt Blu-Ray HD, I am sure it is because of the partnership with Sony on HD. I would not be surprised if Apple ditches Blu-Ray in a year or so for HVD. ;) :)

HVD holds far more promise for Standard-HD and Ultra-HD movies. ;) :)
 
maya said:
Hope this is not history repeating it's self with the DVD-RAM and then to DVD-R/RW and now DVD±R/RW.

Though Apple will adopt Blu-Ray HD, I am sure it is because of the partnership with Sony on HD. I would not be surprised if Apple ditches Blu-Ray in a year or so for HVD. ;) :)

HVD holds far more promise for Standard-HD and Ultra-HD movies. ;) :)

The important thing is that there will be compatibility. It would be upsetting if Apple changed something that caused hardware to be obsolete.
 
Early Macs shipped with DVD-RAM drives. They were mainly used as computer storage solution, not so much for broad video distribution medium. The great thing with HD DVD or blu-ray is support for legacy file formats such as UDF and ISO 9660.
 
maya said:
Though Apple will adopt Blu-Ray HD, I am sure it is because of the partnership with Sony on HD.
If you call that a partnership, then Apple has the same partnership with JVC, Sharp and Canon.

Apple just made a transcoding scheme for HDV capture and a corresponding intermediate codec to handle HDV editing within iMovie HD and FCE HD. The HDV format was a joint project between Canon, Sharp, Sony and JVC.

The notion that Apple and Sony had some sort of partnership with regard to HDV is more marketing hype than reality. ;):)

EDIT: JVC created the HDV format. Sony, Canon and Sharp got on board later. The HDV logo and HDV trademarks belong to JVC and Sony.
 
nuckinfutz said:
Ted,
No it's the movie studio that takes the loss of margin. Sony isn't financing Blu-Ray folks.

You get a peak at their business plan?

As originator of the format, there's nothing to stop Sony from making deals with manufacturers, rebating patent fees or other innovative financing plans to help initial manufacturers and copiers to get on their feet (particularly since Sony >>IS<< one of the studios in question). In fact, it'd be kinda stupid for Sony to allow an initial higher cost to block deployment of their property. Not sure you're looking at this creatively enough.
 
I believe the studios are waiting for a DRM scheme that can't be easily cracked such as CSS. And something that doesn't require authentication. We all know what happened with disposable DVDs and DivX. Although by know, we hope the MPAA realizes that DRM is not effective in any way and only frustrates consumers.
 
Rod Rod said:
If you call that a partnership, then Apple has the same partnership with JVC, Sharp and Canon.

Apple just made a transcoding scheme for HDV capture and a corresponding intermediate codec to handle HDV editing within iMovie HD and FCE HD. The HDV format was a joint project between Canon, Sharp, Sony and JVC.

The notion that Apple and Sony had some sort of partnership with regard to HDV is more marketing hype than reality. ;):)

EDIT: JVC created the HDV format. Sony, Canon and Sharp got on board later. The HDV logo and HDV trademarks belong to JVC and Sony.

Marketing is what Apple is all about. Never forget that. ;) :) It doesn't matter to the end user who created what from donkeys ears, all that matters is that it works, cheap to buy and so forth.

Consumers are uneducated in relation to SD-DVD, HD-DVD/Blu-Ray, SD-HVD and UHD-HVD. :)

As long as they can make a back-up, burn they movies and it plays all is good. :)
 
wdlove said:
The important thing is that there will be compatibility. It would be upsetting if Apple changed something that caused hardware to be obsolete.


Hope history does not repeat itself. :(


I cam getting sick of all these optical formats that only have minor storage bumps. Lets just move to HVD at 1TB who is going to complain for some years to come. :)
 
Lacero said:
I believe the studios are waiting for a DRM scheme that can't be easily cracked such as CSS. And something that doesn't require authentication.
The copy protection scheme has already been settled, and it's the same for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. Studios aren't waiting on this. They're waiting to see what the adoption is going to be for HD players, how to market and price new HD packaged media, and on the production side, which encoders to use, which audio format to use, and the replicator's costs and capabilities.
 
maya said:
Marketing is what Apple is all about.
Please . . . if that were the case, Apple would be a total failure. If Pepsi had 90%+ market share and Coke had 10%, you wouldn't praise Coke's marketing. Anyway, Apple is about more than marketing, and it's about more than the iPod (I can see that counterpoint coming, but you can't have it both ways). Just leave it at the point that the "Sony and Apple HD partnership" is a myth and a falsehood. ;):)
 
Rod Rod said:
Please . . . if that were the case, Apple would be a total failure. If Pepsi had 90%+ market share and Coke had 10%, you wouldn't praise Coke's marketing. Anyway, Apple is about more than marketing, and it's about more than the iPod (I can see that counterpoint coming, but you can't have it both ways). Just leave it at the point that the "Sony and Apple HD partnership" is a myth and a falsehood. ;):)

Fine they are all in the same bed. ;) :)

Though Apple is well recognized for...
and Sony is well recognized for...

that is what it comes down to...

MS and Dell are recognized for.... <--- ROTFLMAO :D
 
nuckinfutz said:
The 89 HD-DVD titles will ship in 2005. Note that Sony's PS3 isn't due until 2H 2006. You haven't read the thread have you? HD-DVD "is" going to be cheaper thus market penetration should be theirs to lose.

Please don't lose your money. Sony hasn't even alluded to the possibility of Blu-Ray players starting at less than $1000.

It doesn't matter that HD-DVD will have a headstart. No one will buy the expensive hardware and expensive media (at least compared to standard DVDs) except for a few early adapters (mostly tech geeks and home theater buffs). This happens with EVERY technology.

Or do you not remeber what happened when DVD was released? Both the hardware and media was relatively expensive until the PS2 came on the scene. Heck, I know people that purchased the PS2 for it's DVD capabilities alone, since even at $299 it was one of the cheapest players on the market (not counting the crappy chinese players). After Sony sold a butt-load of PS2's, prices on DVD hardware (and eventually the DVDs themselves) started dropping rapidly.

And the PS3 will most likely have a $299 pricepoint in America (possibly a bit higher in Japan). Anyone who thinks it will be more expensive isn't familiar with the history of gaming (early rumors suggested the PS2 would have a $500 pricepoint... of course that didn't happen).
 
GFLPraxis said:
And the Nintendo Revolution will play HD-DVDs.

Unfortunately, Nintendo is now irrelevant.... a non-player. They have proven that they are unable to compete in anything but the portable scene.

It's a shame too, as I've gotten more enjoyment out of my Nintendo and Sega game machines than anything released by Sony or Microsoft.
 
Torajima said:
Unfortunately, Nintendo is now irrelevant.... a non-player. They have proven that they are unable to compete in anything but the portable scene.

I will have to strongly dissagree with that. Nintendo is more than capable in keeping up in the console wars. Nintendo still has the best games. I'll take Mario, Zelda and Metroid over GTA any day. The only thing that hinders Nintendo is the GTA audience that seems to think that the only videogames that are good are the ones where you can aimlessly go around shooting people on the street and running them over with cars. Sure I've had tons of fun with games like True Crime, but when you have a line of people out the door of Electronics Boutique waiting to buy the new GTA, that tells me there's a problem with society. Nintendo is the pioneer of all current games. They will continue to raise the bar as time goes on. Nintendo is to the videogames industry as what Apple is to the computer industry. Personally, people that bash Nintendo remind me of PC users that bash Macs out of ingorance.\

Nintendo has officially said that they are here to stay. And that the day they stop making consoles is the day that get out of games altogether.
 
Up until recently I really couldn't care less which format wins out. But being a fan of Apple, I would rather Blu-Ray win this battle since Apple supports it. More storage and a possible expansion to 4 layers in the future is a plus. There will always be a need for more storage.

I'm excited about these technologies b/c I can do several things with it:
1. Back-up my entire iTunes and iPhoto libraries onto 1 DVD instead of an ext FWHD
2. Back-up my entire OS install partition onto 1 DVD (and create a re-install disk with everything on it)
3. Put the entire contents of a DV tape onto 1 DVD for back-up(or 2 on an HD-DVD or 4 on a Blu-Ray DVD) and then store my DV tapes away so they are preserved
4. Entire box-sets of movies/TV shows on 1 DVD. The entire Widescreen HD Lord of The Rings 3-film extended Directors Cut Edition on 1 DVD would be awesome. Also, there are lots of television shows (Aqua Teen, Sealab, Futurama, South Park, Family Guy, Beavis & Butthead, Daria, X-Files, X-Men 90's animated, etc.) that I'd like to own on DVD....but I do not like having lots of box sets with lots of dvd's to watch these. Being able to have the entire Futurama set on 1 or 2 DVD's would be great.
 
Jovian9 said:
Up until recently I really couldn't care less which format wins out. But being a fan of Apple, I would rather Blu-Ray win this battle since Apple supports it. More storage and a possible expansion to 4 layers in the future is a plus. There will always be a need for more storage.

I'm excited about these technologies b/c I can do several things with it:
1. Back-up my entire iTunes and iPhoto libraries onto 1 DVD instead of an ext FWHD
2. Back-up my entire OS install partition onto 1 DVD (and create a re-install disk with everything on it)
3. Put the entire contents of a DV tape onto 1 DVD for back-up(or 2 on an HD-DVD or 4 on a Blu-Ray DVD) and then store my DV tapes away so they are preserved
4. Entire box-sets of movies/TV shows on 1 DVD. The entire Widescreen HD Lord of The Rings 3-film extended Directors Cut Edition on 1 DVD would be awesome. Also, there are lots of television shows (Aqua Teen, Sealab, Futurama, South Park, Family Guy, Beavis & Butthead, Daria, X-Files, X-Men 90's animated, etc.) that I'd like to own on DVD....but I do not like having lots of box sets with lots of dvd's to watch these. Being able to have the entire Futurama set on 1 or 2 DVD's would be great.

Your to do list is probably the very reason that Apple is adopting the Blue-ray technology. As long as this technology has better longevity that current DVD's, then it would be a secure backup.
 
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