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A second spike was always going to happen. You're not going to stop a virus. We would have to shut down for half a year to make sure it was completely gone. The initial shutdown was so we could deal with the second spike. So we could make more equipment and PPE to deal with it. So we could slow the spread to let infrastructure catch up. It was never meant to stop it.
A 2nd spike is likely to happen but US still have to get out of the 1st. Despite all naysayers and "masks are useless" people
 

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You're welcome. Let's see how the same chart looks today. Oops. Now, I still think cherrypicking a handful of peaks to make a trend line was absurd, so I'm not going to make the same mistake here, but you have to at least laugh at how bad this looks. Please go ahead and draw your silly red lines on this one.

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Again, what does this spike have to do with the “reopening too early is a huge mistake and it will result in a massive spike in cases“ argument? That was debunked long ago and is backed up by this very chart. Unless you’re suggesting that it takes over a month for symptoms to show? Because every expert on the planet would disagree with you. What the latter part of the chart shows is that people have become way too relaxed... and it doesn’t take a genius or an expert with a degree in epedimiology to know that once you reopen and relax the rules, people will take advantage being the fools that we are.
 
Well, one of your two sentences is incompatible with the other. Please check your facts before making baseless assumptions. SK and Japan are in the top 20 in the number of yearly outbound tourists worldwide at about 30 and 20 million respectively. That’s not even per capita; it’s in absolute numbers.

And you admitted you gave a false number. France has 53 million overnight trips of 67 million population. Japan, according to you has 20 million trips of a population of 127 million. Japan is significantly lower than France in both absolute and per capita. You just proved yourself wrong.

Yes it’s closer, but distance is largely irrelevant if you want prevent inbound and outbound travel. It’s a simple matter of closing off points of entry, and Korea was one of the earliest country to do so.

How are you going to close off Italy or France when you have hundreds of land border crossings with absolutely no control? This was why the virus spread out of the New York City metro area. Impossible to isolate.

Similarly, Alaska has 5 land border crossings and one major airport, Hawaii has one major airport and zero land crossings. Again, you proved yourself wrong.

You've basically made my point. South Korea and Japan, by virtue of being islands or de-facto islands, have a much easier time in controlling the spread of COVID by closing off. The UK, by being a de-facto peninsula of continental Europe, did not have this benefit.
 
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People in Asian countries wear masks when they are sick with colds, flu, etc., in order not to spread their germs to other people. They consider it an act of respect to fellow humans.
This takes on special meaning by looking at what is happening in the US and their difficulty in managing a situation that entails the need to look a little further than one's own personal interest.
I'll add: wearing masks continues to remind people that the situation is not ordinary. And people increase their degree of attention, if anything.
 
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And you admitted you gave a false number. France has 53 million overnight trips of 67 million population. Japan, according to you has 20 million trips of a population of 127 million. Japan is significantly lower than France in both absolute and per capita. You just proved yourself wrong.



How are you going to close off Italy or France when you have hundreds of land border crossings with absolutely no control? This was why the virus spread out of the New York City metro area. Impossible to isolate.

Similarly, Alaska has 5 land border crossings and one major airport, Hawaii has one major airport and zero land crossings. Again, you proved yourself wrong.

You've basically made my point. South Korea and Japan, by virtue of being islands or de-facto islands, have a much easier time in controlling the spread of COVID by closing off. The UK, by being a de-facto peninsula of continental Europe, did not have this benefit.

As someone from the UK, I can assure you, we are very much an island! Aside from one tunnel connecting us to France, we are no less of an island than Japan!
 
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Again, what does this spike have to do with the “reopening too early is a huge mistake and it will result in a massive spike in cases“ argument? That was debunked long ago and is backed up by this very chart. Unless you’re suggesting that it takes over a month for symptoms to show? Because every expert on the planet would disagree with you. What the latter part of the chart shows is that people have become way too relaxed... and it doesn’t take a genius or an expert with a degree in epedimiology to know that once you reopen and relax the rules, people will take advantage being the fools that we are.

I think you have me confused with someone else. I never claimed there would be a massive spike in cases right after opening, and I agree with you that there hasn’t been one. I only joined in to mock your method of plotting trend lines and show you what a real one looks like.

I posted the second chart, because I thought the spike was a funny and timely illustration of how silly your analysis was. Why didn’t you immediately retract your ‘downward trend’ in light of the new peak? Probably because you spotted a different downward trend in the middle of my chart and thought you’d run with that one for a while.

The fact is Georgia doesn’t have a massive spike, but it’s no victory for anyone. Cases are trending up again, with a shallow exponential curve, and political will to fight it is trending downwards. Mobility data shows Georgians on the move again, but not using public transport. Maybe the population will beat the spread with their own voluntary piecemeal decisions to distance, which is I guess the American way, but if so that would be a validation of what some people call the ‘fearmongering’, because if people weren’t concerned they wouldn’t do anything.

I'll post one more chart for you. Again the blue lines are trend lines adjusted by the amount of testing. You can clearly see that something turned around the speed of the disease pretty dramatically, but whatever it was, it lost its power in some places a few weeks ago. Now you could argue its was voluntary public social distancing in response to the disease, or it was imposed lockdowns. The timing suggests to me it might be the former actually, but that doesn't mean all the silly anti-lockdown, ant-science posturing and sophistry is justified and it also doesn't mean its all over. Public concern is fading as the Covid headlines turn stale, and that's going to kill people in some states. The situation is bad, it might still get worse, so look out for your neighbours and don't make it worse.
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You can see all 50 states and the more interesting Rt numbers at rt.live
 
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I think you have me confused with someone else. I never claimed there would be a massive spike in cases right after opening, and I agree with you that there hasn’t been one. I only joined in to mock your method of plotting trend lines and show you what a real one looks like.

I posted the second chart, because I thought the spike was a funny and timely illustration of how silly your analysis was. Why didn’t you immediately retract your ‘downward trend’ in light of the new peak? Probably because you spotted a different downward trend in the middle of my chart and thought you’d run with that one for a while.

The fact is Georgia doesn’t have a massive spike, but it’s no victory for anyone. Cases are trending up again, with a shallow exponential curve, and political will to fight it is trending downwards. Mobility data shows Georgians on the move again, but not using public transport. Maybe the population will beat the spread with their own voluntary piecemeal decisions to distance, which is I guess the American way, but if so that would be a validation of what some people call the ‘fearmongering’, because if people weren’t concerned they wouldn’t do anything.

I'll post one more chart for you. Again the blue lines are trend lines adjusted by the amount of testing. You can clearly see that something turned around the speed of the disease pretty dramatically, but whatever it was, it lost its power in some places a few weeks ago. Now you could argue its was voluntary public social distancing in response to the disease, or it was imposed lockdowns. The timing suggests to me it might be the former actually, but that doesn't mean all the silly anti-lockdown, ant-science posturing and sophistry is justified and it also doesn't mean its all over. Public concern is fading as the Covid headlines turn stale, and that's going to kill people in some states. The situation is bad, it might still get worse, so look out for your neighbours and don't make it worse.
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You can see all 50 states and the more interesting Rt numbers at rt.live

Since it’s hard to follow convos here, let me recap for you to put this to rest once and for all...
- My initial claim was that the experts and the media that piled on about how GA‘s opening would be disastrous and that they would see a big spike in new infections were all wrong. A month later, as cases continued to decline, all we heard were crickets.
- Someone replied saying that GA clearly opened too early because their reopening resulted in a spike in cases and many people died unnecessarily
- That someone uploaded the chart (NOT ME) as proof that there was a clear uptrend after reopening
- I quickly drew the trend lines to show the clear downtrend that occurred for well over a month after GA reopened because he clearly couldn’t eyeball the obvious
- What GA (and other states) showed was that opening the economy does not automatically lead to more infections, though common sense will tell you that over time, it offers more opportunity for people to let their guards down, which can lead to more cases

I’m with you. If everyone cared about their neighbors they’d practice social distancing, wear masks and wash their hands often... And we don’t need an expert to tell us this. We knew this even before we knew what a virus was based on simple observation and common sense... something that’s severely lacking these days, unfortunately, and way too much politicizing of this issue.
 
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- My initial claim was that the experts and the media that piled on about how GA‘s opening would be disastrous and that they would see a big spike in new infections were all wrong. A month later, as cases continued to decline, all we heard were crickets.

Except that cases are rising, not on a decline.
 
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