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In my county alone, we’ve seen a big spike in cases lately. However, maybe one in 5 wear a mask. I wonder why they even bother to wash their hands...
 
Read a book. Then read all the papers cited to above that explain exactly why masks work.

There’s unfortunately no getting through to people like this, despite how frustrating it is. This person believes themselves more knowledgeable then thousands of Drs, scientists, PhDs, governments and individuals. Why? Because they read something off a blog? It’s unfortunate we have to entertain this idiocy but it is what it is.
 
I am in the category of people that does not believe we should have ever been in lockdowns or an economical shutdown across the board.

Good for you man! I agree! Precautions for the most vulnerable...sure! Common sense like not being around people if you feel unwell...absolutely. Support for businesses that HAVE TO shut down because staff are off sick...totally! But all the rest...creating a plague of perpetually terrified people who have become too comfortable and many of whom are actually better off financially while not having to work...that was a horrific idea! And it has set a dangerous precedent. Next time something like this comes along, the weak-willed will instantly run and hide and demand protection from the government!!

I am glad that at least some of us will try to keep the world turning in the meantime!
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If people can't wear masks, they should not be allowed to go outside.

Then campaign to get that written into law...until then...people are still free to make that choice!
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This is true. Comparing the number of new cases found when there were fewer tests (if any) with the number found when there were many tests yields little useful information. However, it is apparent that the percentage of tests that are coming back positive is also increasing. It is still a weak statistic but it is also an unwelcome trend.

The best statistic appears to be the number of excess deaths that occurred during the pandemic. That is, the number of deaths recorded, for any reason, over and above the average for that region, at that time of year, over the last five years. Unfortunately, it is a trailing indicator that (due to the length of time between infection, death and reporting) runs three to six weeks behind; so, it only tells you what happened not what is happening.

This BBC article covers it in more detail for several countries (but not the US)...
.

I have read a lot about the "excess deaths" measure and I can see its value from a statistical standpoint. However, there will be people who have died of other causes that aren't COVID related who have either had appointments cancelled or who have just stayed away from hospital either out of fear of catching COVID there or because they have been ruthlessly brow-beaten into staying away to "protect" an institution whose very existence, whose raison d'être, is to protect US. So those deaths, that weren't caused by a COVID infection but were caused by the COVID panic, are being ignored and - worse - are being rolled into a statistic which is being used to show just how dangerous COVID is!
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Are you implying that there's a scientific consensus that we have to remain fully locked down still to avoid overfilling the hospitals?
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The best thing I've learned from plotting trend lines is that you can make them go any direction you want. You're finding a function that goes through (or optimally close to) the data points, and the possibilities are infinite. That's why in machine learning you have to pick a subjectively realistic model and separate test data from training data.

Uh huh. You’re overthinking it. If you don’t trust your eyes, just go look up the data yourself.
 
There’s unfortunately no getting through to people like this, despite how frustrating it is. This person believes themselves more knowledgeable then thousands of Drs, scientists, PhDs, governments and individuals. Why? Because they read something off a blog? It’s unfortunate we have to entertain this idiocy but it is what it is.
I think it is more related about feeling "smarter" than the rest of the world.
 

Yeah, the last couple of weeks which I acknowledged but that has nothing to do with GA reopening too early. Clearly you haven’t been following the discussion.

Well, yeah, you did draw a bunch of lines, but I can only imagine they're intended to be a joke.
Uh huh, so you haven’t been following the conversation, you have no idea what those trend lines were meant to show, so because you lack knowledge and imagination, it’s a joke? Riiight.
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Lol. That’s hilarious. Can anyone just pick their favourite three data points for their own personalised trend line?

This graph is from rt.live (no relation to that RT) where the blue line is a rolling average and adjusted to account for the local rate of testing. It's not a 'spike' as some would have you believe but its not under control as much as others would have you believe.

View attachment 925402

Thanks for illustrating my point... From 4/30 until some point in June, they saw a decline which proves once again that reopening too early did NOT result in a spike in cases.
 
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These are all planned. The second wave is also planned.

PART I
What they do is they tell you to wear a mask 24/7 except when you're sleeping. Therefore you're breathing in your own CO2 and quashing your immune systems strength.

Then they have you stay indoors 24/7 which also squashes your immune system because you are not getting D3 sulphate as a secondary result of UVB nor are you getting exposure to bacteria in nature that helps your body's natural ability to strengthen its immune system. Things like staying away from the beaches and parks is the worst thing you can do. Then they tell you to use alcohol and soap and wash like a mo' fo' all day long obliterating any mild bacteria and viruses that when present cause your body to strengthen its immune system.


PART II
Now they say, ok, everyone can go out. Have fun! And guess what happens? Boom, tons of people who didn't have Corona will get Corona because they have weakened their immune systems over the last couple of months bu completely eliminating everything from their lives that helped their bodies build up immunity.

PART III
Congratulations. You are now a stat from an experiment that was a live exercise right from the beginning.
 
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There’s no vaccine available in New Zealand, but they did the lockdown the right way and now they’re basically back to normal operations.

This!

And New Zealand isn’t alone. Taiwan has seen 7 deaths (population roughly equal to Texas). Singapore: 26. Australia: 100. South Korea: 280. And the list goes on and on.

Americans’ selfishness and politicization of basic science is costing lives. I just pray it doesn’t cost the life of someone I love.
 
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Yep. Sure as F am.

Just look up why US kids have such a high peanut allergy versus Israeli kids.

It's because we are defeating our bodies' immune systems by hiding everything from them.

Real cool.

Here.

I'll save you a Google search which seems to be everyone's God of information.


ah, so you’re in the “a virus is really no different than an allergy, and somehow an immune system with no prior exposure can protect you from CV-19 and you won’t die if you just get exposed somehow” camp? Cool, cool.


This, ladies and gentlemen, is why we’re all royally ****ed in America, while so many other countries and regions with equivalent populations have followed actual (i.e. not internet forum) science and come out the other side of the pandemic.
 
Japan hasn’t stayed open. Most of the most populated prefectures in Japan has had closed schools, shops, and restaurants since late April and started opening back up in the last few weeks.

Wrong. You just bought propaganda. About 70% of Tokyo people still went to work, restaurants and bars stayed open. Schools naturally shut down because of spring break, the inter-year vacation. April is when the Japanese school year starts, then summer break starts in June.



Their low numbers is due to effective contact tracing and mass testing, not their geography.

Again, their geography allowed them to shut down entry into the country, allowing time-consuming contact tracing to do its thing. It's all geography.

You never addressed why Alaska and Hawaii had so low rates versus the continental US. Again, they had the same policies and testing. Even Puerto Rico, with its lower levels of healthcare had a lower case and death rate than the mainland. It's geography. Sorry to burst your self-guilt bubble.
 
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Credible sources? How about we start with a world health organization that has concluded face masks can not stop healthy people from getting COVID-19 And how exactly do masks prevent the virus from escaping but can not prevent the virus from entering the mask? Do you really believe the mask is gonna stop the virus from escaping or entering the mask? Have you got any idea at all of the sizes of the virus? (I bet you haven't got a clue) All it does is give people a FALSE sense of security, that wearing them we are protected now. And what's the point of wearing them anyway, if when you talk you have to remove it so people can actually make a sense of what you are saying? Or wear the same mask over and over! If the virus is that contagious, all it takes is a single wrong touch (in a supermarket, on the street, at work, on a bus, on a train, airplane, etc) To sum this up, science does have a mixed answer about face masks benefits, and honestly, they have been wrong many times with their Covid-19 journey so pardon me for not having a complete faith just yet. But again, by all means.... be the sheep that follow, believe whatever you want. It is a free world. A bit mad as well.

The mask is not a single solution. It's a combination of methods which can help spreading the virus. And yes, I do know how small a virus is. But I have a question for you as well: do you know what aerosols are? And how to prevent them or at least reduce their numbers and/or spread?

And one more question: why is it, that in countries or places where people wear masks the rate of infections could be kept so low without severe lock downs? Like for example in Hong Kong or Tawain or South Korea?

I am sorry to tell you, but looking at the situation in for example USA, UK or Brazil, I have my own interpretation of madness.

I couldn't care less about your health status if you decided for yourself about its fate. But unfortunately, in the case of Corona it could be the potential serious sickness for people I love and care about, if you with your infinite wisdom and superior scientific knowledge stand next to them without mask.
 
This is exactly what everyone said when some states started to reopen early despite rising cases: it would be even worse for the economy if reopening was a false start, with a steep rise in cases after reopening. It will shake consumer confidence and hurt the economy much more than an effective short-term closure would have been. By reopening too early many states are setting the stage for an even bigger economic catastrophe.
Yeah, it appears our leaders made things twice as bad. My word, who could have ever saw this coming? We’ve got the worst from both scenarios. We Americans are too stubborn. We think we know better than everyone else. The idiocracy is on full display when browsing social media, which I think is ruining our society. We’ve managed to politicize a pandemic. Everyone ignores science and facts now. It’s crazy out there and I think we’re headed to a really bad place come this autumn, both with the pandemic and society in general.
 
ah, so you’re in the “a virus is really no different than an allergy, and somehow an immune system with no prior exposure can protect you from CV-19 and you won’t die if you just get exposed somehow” camp? Cool, cool.


This, ladies and gentlemen, is why we’re all royally ****ed in America, while so many other countries and regions with equivalent populations have followed actual (i.e. not internet forum) science and come out the other side of the pandemic.

Research seems to suggest that up to 80% of cases of COVID are asymptomatic so there must be a good number of people whose immune systems can protect them. There are also a number of virus development programs that are using adapted common cold viruses to trigger the body into developing antibodies as there is a good amount of similarity between the common cold and COVID, enough to trigger the body into action at least. Plus, "...and you won't die if you just get exposed somehow" is way off the mark. Even if a person does get exposed, even if their body offers up no immune response, what is the current fatality rate? Seems to be between 0.5 and 1%. So yeah, I am in the camp that doesn't believe that I am automatically doomed to death if I get this virus!

I totally respect your right to your own views, but I have to say that if you think that Steve686's attitude is unique to the USA, you are very, VERY wrong. There are a huge amount of people here in the UK who have the same attitude. And that isn't based on some conspiracy theory on a random blog. That is based on news sources here, that is based on my own extended social circle, and that is based on observable and empirical evidence not least of which is the fact that, as I have referred to before, barely 1 in 100 people here is wearing a mask either generally "out and about" or in shops/stores/ People are wearing them on public transport but that it most likely because it has been legislated as a requirement. People take them off the second they get off of the train/bus!
 
I have yet to hear a convincing alternative to ending lockdown from anybody who says "too early"...but I'm always open to ideas. So what do you suggest? Literally keep people locked down and businesses closed until a vaccine arrives...which may never happen? How do you think the global economy would be able to support that?

Wth more testing being done, as well has drive through testing, an incredible novel practice thanks to that young biologist from Cambridge University whom dropped out to start this business and approved in California) ... having this for 30 days minimum would’ve helped assess the issue more clearly.

the President could have issued a plea for all citizens to wear a mask while in malls, stores or gyms or outdoor events stating he’s concerned for all his citizens. This would help greatly. also maybe (unsure if he’d have the authority) consult and maybe issue a federal testing app based on Apple & Googles code.

mall of this would’ve helped assess the issue, keeping everyone safe and then be full open for July 4th!!

now imagine Independence Day inside? Nobody would really follow that and the spike is going to jump up again I fear. I hope not but it looks like it may happen.

Apple at least is now being much more cautious. Their decision for using aluminum in the shells is liking like a smart idea for cleaning.
 
ah, so you’re in the “a virus is really no different than an allergy, and somehow an immune system with no prior exposure can protect you from CV-19 and you won’t die if you just get exposed somehow” camp? Cool, cool.


This, ladies and gentlemen, is why we’re all royally ****ed in America, while so many other countries and regions with equivalent populations have followed actual (i.e. not internet forum) science and come out the other side of the pandemic.

Yep
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Research seems to suggest that up to 80% of cases of COVID are asymptomatic so there must be a good number of people whose immune systems can protect them. There are also a number of virus development programs that are using adapted common cold viruses to trigger the body into developing antibodies as there is a good amount of similarity between the common cold and COVID, enough to trigger the body into action at least. Plus, "...and you won't die if you just get exposed somehow" is way off the mark. Even if a person does get exposed, even if their body offers up no immune response, what is the current fatality rate? Seems to be between 0.5 and 1%. So yeah, I am in the camp that doesn't believe that I am automatically doomed to death if I get this virus!

I totally respect your right to your own views, but I have to say that if you think that Steve686's attitude is unique to the USA, you are very, VERY wrong. There are a huge amount of people here in the UK who have the same attitude. And that isn't based on some conspiracy theory on a random blog. That is based on news sources here, that is based on my own extended social circle, and that is based on observable and empirical evidence not least of which is the fact that, as I have referred to before, barely 1 in 100 people here is wearing a mask either generally "out and about" or in shops/stores/ People are wearing them on public transport but that it most likely because it has been legislated as a requirement. People take them off the second they get off of the train/bus!

Don't forget to tell the immunologist that there is also previous exposure to past Coronavirus strains that contribute to current immunities of new and mutated strains.

I don't even bother more than once per conversation to point out instances or examples because the brainwashing is so bad and media has done a spectacular job of making people believe we can actually stop this virus and not let it run its course through our population.
 
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Wth more testing being done, as well has drive through testing, an incredible novel practice thanks to that young biologist from Cambridge University whom dropped out to start this business and approved in California) ... having this for 30 days minimum would’ve helped assess the issue more clearly.

the President could have issued a plea for all citizens to wear a mask while in malls, stores or gyms or outdoor events stating he’s concerned for all his citizens. This would help greatly. also maybe (unsure if he’d have the authority) consult and maybe issue a federal testing app based on Apple & Googles code.

mall of this would’ve helped assess the issue, keeping everyone safe and then be full open for July 4th!!

now imagine Independence Day inside? Nobody would really follow that and the spike is going to jump up again I fear. I hope not but it looks like it may happen.

Apple at least is now being much more cautious. Their decision for using aluminum in the shells is liking like a smart idea for cleaning.

Hmmm...well testing on its own will do absolutely nothing (other than get a clearer indication of exactly how many people have it). The only way that would have a positive effect is if people who test positive are forced to isolate. Perhaps you meant that and didn't include it in which case, fine. But testing alone won't change a thing!

As for the President issuing a "plea"...I honestly respect your optimism...but do you really think for a moment that would work? The liberty-loving right would complain that it was a step too far and breached their rights, and the Trump-hating left would probably not wear masks just because big Don had told them they should!

In any case, it wouldn't have kept everybody safe. It would have helped for sure, but as I have argued elsewhere, without a "control" group it is very hard to prove what has worked and what hasn't. Cases and infection profiles vary from country to country and from state to state, but given different weather conditions, different population densities, different demographics (poor communities seem to be hit harder which makes a lot of sense given reduce quality of services and living conditions), different cultures, and a whole range of other variables, it is almost impossible to say just how much the lockdown and other measures have actually slowed the spread.

Everything helps, I won't deny that. But I agree with the others on here who have pointed out that the advice being given about masks (and other things, but masks in particular) could possibly create a false sense of security. Or perhaps the masks do work but all they are doing is slowing down the spread and lengthening the overall duration. Or perhaps the masks work and have worked all along and the experts who said they didn't help at the beginning were wrong.

What I am convinced of is this: if this had happened even ten years ago, there wouldn't be such a huge divide between people. The internet, for all of its positives, has utterly erased "shades of grey". Social media and the ability to locate others from all over the world who have the same views as you - be those views left or right, be they radical or moderate - has allowed ideologies to ferment and bubble up. Some of which are radical ideas which, before the explosion of social media, would have been confined to a couple of crazies living in mom's basement who maybe met up once a month with the other three in their town that they had found and bitched about the world and what they would do if they were in charge. That has all changed.

Now, given the opportunity to meet the others who share their view all around the world, they are now emboldened, their views bolstered by validation, and they have more confidence to spread their views openly. And of course, owing to nothing more than the law of averages, for every radical right wing group there will be a radical left wing group. When you combine these spreading ideologies with the shareability of social media and the fact that it has democratised "news" giving everybody a voice (which is an idea which I don't know whether I find more "terrible" or "terrifying") and you find yourself in a world where everybody, even the moderate centrists, are being press-ganged into "taking a side". Phrases like "if you aren't part of the solution, you are part of the problem" sow division and the creation of "otherdom". "Pick a side" they say. "Make sure you are on the right side of history" they say. And in doing so, the middle is gone, leaving behind a gaping chasm on either side of which exist the warring factions.

As can be seen by some of the responses to my posts, there is no desire to bridge that gap by many these days. They are deeply entrenched in their viewpoint. They cite the "experts" and "scientists" that agree with them, and shout over the views of others who are equally qualified but who don't agree with them (not talking about myself here, talking about other experts). They accuse them of being science deniers because they don't agree with THEIR science. They throw around terms like "far-right" or "Antifa" instead of the (usually) far more accurate "Somebody who disagrees with me".

And then somebody who isn't entrenched, somebody who perhaps has a slight leaning one way or the other but who is open to have their mind changed, suddenly seems themselves being identified as having "extreme" views. And this can go one of two ways. They may be terrified of being vilified or "cancelled", in which case they will outwardly side with the groups that is shouting the loudest and throwing the worst insults. But even in that case, will they actually agree with that side, or just pretend to in order to not be thrown under the bus?? The other option is that they react completely the other way and move much further in the direction of what they have always leaned towards anyway. Those on the left seem to believe that the former happens most of the time, while those on the right seem to believe that the latter happens. What ends up being true will come out in the end.

But this drawing up of battle lines serves nobody in the end. Because the dialogue and good natured criticism that has, in the past, led to many a great mind looking at something from a different perspective and, as a result, changing course and potentially making a great new discovery, that is a thing of the past. All that is happening now is divergence. There is such pressure to be "right and correct" that the focus has shifted away from "What would happen if we try this?" to "How can I prove my hypothesis?". The starting point used to be a theory, it has become a presumption. And I honestly believe that this will - ultimately - be far more destructive than constructive.

So to all of you out there that don't want to take part in the ideology "tug of war", for those that - somehow - are still managing to float about the chasm where "Middle Ground" used to proudly stand, I salute you and wish you well in your struggle. For you will be beset on all sides by those demanding that you accept their dogma, that you "educate yourself" and "read a book" (but only one the validates their viewpoint), and you may lose friends, you may even lose your job, but be strong, and refuse to lose the one thing that is rightfully and eternally yours, your SELF.
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Yep
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Don't forget to tell the immunologist that there is also previous exposure to past Coronavirus strains that contribute to current immunities of new and mutated strains.

I don't even bother more than once per conversation to point out instances or examples because the brainwashing is so bad and media has done a spectacular job of making people believe we can actually stop this virus and not let it run its course through our population.

Perhaps I should follow your lead and only point things out once! I do feel like I end up repeating myself to different people!! I fully respect everybody's right to their own opinion. If somebody wants to believe something that I find myself completely opposed to then I fully respect that and will either get involved in a dialogue with them if they wish to, or leave them alone if they don't. Where I draw the line, however, is when those thoughts spill over into real-world actions demanding that I act (or don't act) a certain way because I am "wrong".

I know this is a generalisation, and I am fully prepared for to be "disliked" at levels not seen since Egyptian locust plagues, but in my experience (and this is in the UK, but seems to be true in pretty much every other country that I see things reported on in the news), those on the political right have the "live and let live...you do you" attitude, and those on the left have the "I don't care what you think, you're wrong, and not only are you wrong but you must be forced to adopt our way of thinking/acting or you will be punished". I would say that I believe there is a word that describes a kind of belief and behaviour where opposing/dissenting views are punished...but I'm pretty sure the "F" word isn't allowed on this site...
 
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Apple reclosing stores in 4 swing states.

Here in California we have an ever increasing 7 day trend line for positives and a flat 7 day for deaths but we aren’t a swing state so we are opening more things as of Friday anyway, like nail salons and such.

Nationally the 7 day trend for deaths is steadily decreasing and at its lowest level since March 30, and those early numbers are flawed because many deaths from before then weren’t coded Covid until after then and the dates weren’t retroactively changed.
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Yep
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Don't forget to tell the immunologist that there is also previous exposure to past Coronavirus strains that contribute to current immunities of new and mutated strains.

I don't even bother more than once per conversation to point out instances or examples because the brainwashing is so bad and media has done a spectacular job of making people believe we can actually stop this virus and not let it run its course through our population.
Exactly right. It’s unstoppable for now. Only thing we can do is mitigate so we are prepared, find treatments that reduce complications and death, etc. And make sure you get an MMR booster. It is being shown that populations with recent MMR vaccinations (less than 15 years since last shot) are the least impacted by Covid complications.

Places that had it “under control” just squished the curve to the right. Places hit hard are seeing a big retreat as they run low on the most vulnerable people.
 
Aside from your research into Emissions, I think you would make an excellent candidate for a Ph.D in Logical Fallacy Studies...I mean...you have all the terminology nailed already!
If you claim a person is using a fallacy, you should identify which fallacy it is, otherwise it is evident you don't know what you are talking about, but that is no surprise given your track record of posting constant misinformation.

/edit/ I misunderstood the comment being made, chucker23n1 below clarified it, of which my thoughts on that come in a later post.
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You're making a fundamental assumption that if you prevent people from getting COVID now, we can make it go away permanently.

Looking at historical knowledge, we get flu every single year. Even after a vaccine, people still get flu.

Drawing on experience, what you have to do is regulate the rate of people getting COVID to keep it at a manageable level.

What the public and politicians are hoping is we lock down for 3 weeks, the rate goes to zero, end of story. There's only been one disease in the history of mankind that that's worked (smallpox). Everything else has stayed around, and continued killing.
You didn't answer the question whatsoever, instead only deflected. Nothing you posted has anything to do with masks helping prevent the spread of the active pandemic, nor does it have anything to do with herd immunity in NYC.

Please answer the question as asked and stay on topic.
 
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If you claim a person is using a fallacy, you should identify which fallacy it is, otherwise it is evident you don't know what you are talking about, but that is no surprise given your track record of posting constant misinformation.

@TVOR isn't saying you used a fallacy. They're saying you seem a little too invested in accusing others of using fallacies.
 
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